the zones of possible occurrences of large earthquakes jkt 2018.compressed.pdf · the zones of...
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Catastrophe reserving: the zones of possible occurrences of large earthquakes
Sri Widiyantoro
Dean and Professor
Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering
Institute of Technology Bandung (ITB)
17 January 2018, Jakarta
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Outline:
1. Lessons Learned from
Japan Earthquakes
2. Implications for Indonesia
3. Closing Remarks
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2006 Jogyakarta, Indonesia Mw 6.3
2009 Suruga Bay, Japan Mw 6.4
4 – 5 弱 5 弱- 5強 5強 – 6弱 6強-7 3-4 3 2 1
o 50 km
震度
Deaths: 0 people 5749 people
2009 L’Aquila, Italy Mw 6.3
295 people
震度
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What is an earthquake? Sudden violent
movement within the crust or upper mantle
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Mantle Convection: The Driving Force
USGS webpage
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Implications for Java and Sumatra?
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Estimasi sebelumnya Mw=7.2 – 8.0
Yang terjadi Mw=9.0
3.0 g
station MYG004 ( Tsukadate) site 38.7292 141.0217 epicenter 38.103 142.86, jarak (site-epicenter) 175km
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Map of Earthquake Sources for Indonesia 2016 Subduction Megathrust
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New Hazard Maps (2010 vs 2017)
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Produk Tim Peta 2016:
- Peta Sumber Gempa Bumi Indonesia 2016
- Peta Hazard Gempa Bumi Indonesia 2016 untuk perancangan bangunan tahan gempa
- Buku Laporan berisi detil informasi menyangkut pembuatan peta (2 bahasa)
- Publikasi informasi sumber gempa dalam website
Pemuthakhiran Peta Gempa Indonesia 2016
Upaya penyempurnaan peta gempa yang dilakukan meliputi:
(a) pemakaian data dasar yang lebih baik seperti SRTM-30, IFSAR, LiDAr, dan katalog gempa sampai tahun 2016
• EHB (1960-2008) • USGS (1973-2016) • ISC-GEM (1907-2004) • Relocated BMKG data (2009-2015)
Katalog PuSGeN 2016: all Shocks (1907-2016) Working Group Catalog
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(b) Pokja Seismologi melakukan relokasi lebih dari 12.000 episenter
Vektor pergeseran episenter hasil relokasi untuk seluruh wilayah Indonesia
(Widiyantoro et al., 2016)
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Double-difference relocation of
earthquakes in Indonesia
BMKG;
USGS
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Indonesian Concrete Design Standard 1966 Indonesian Loading Standard 1970
Indonesian Standard for Design of Earthquake Resistance Building 1983
Indonesian Standard for Design of Earthquake Resistance Building SNI 1727-2002
Indonesian Hazard Maps 2010
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Hazard 2500y (2010)
Hazard 2500y (2017)
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Active Faults in
Sumatera
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Active Faults in Java
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Active Faults in Sulawesi
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Natural hazards are inevitable;
Natural disasters are not;
How can we reduce aftereffects?
(pers. comm. Dr. W.-M. Boerner, 2012)
Major paradigm
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Closing Remarks
Moving beyond Hazard to Risk
Estimates potential economic loss and/or fatalities due
to earthquakes
Far more effective than hazard in influencing policy
makers
Depends on accurate and reliable building exposure
data and fragility models
Reliable fragility models are constrained by actual
earthquake damage and exposure data
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26
Hazard-map-based zonation of risk for Germany Hazard Damage Losses
Assets Vulnerability
Courtesy of
Prof. F. Wenzel
(2006)
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Map of layer depth for Vs > 750 m/s
Ridwan et al. (2016)
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Acknowledgements
MAIPARK
PuSGeN
Prof. James J. Mori (Kyoto University)
Prof. Phil R. Cummins (Australian National University; Geoscience Australia)
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Many thanks go to MAIPARK