the world in 2033 and 2064

1 INOVA CONSULTORIA DE GESTÃO E INOVAÇÃO ESTRATÉGICA LTDA TODOS OS DIREITOS RESERVADOS

INOVA CONSULTING | DPC direção de pesquisa e conteúdos

The World in 2033 and in 2064


A INOVA CONSULTING é uma empresa global, com matriz no Brasil e presença na Europa e EUA, que atua na consultoria e treinamento de futuro, tendências, inovação e planejamento estratégico para a gestão. Através do conhecimento dos cenários, das megatendências, das tendências comportamentais, das tendências de negócio e dos best prac*ces de mercado, produzem-‐se Insights aplicáveis aos negócios, com dna inovador e forte orientação ao futuro. A INOVA CONSULTING possui experiência de consultoria e treinamento de futuro, tendências, inovação e planejamento estratégico para as seguintes áreas de negócio: hotelaria, turismo, jóias, tecnologia, ensino, varejo e ponto de venda, telecomunicações, ó[ca, banco, fitness, financeira, seguros, indústria, construção, conteúdos, comunicação, e-‐commerce, tecnologia, automóvel, bens de consumo, combus]veis e lubrificantes, saúde e bem estar, farmacêu[ca, transportes, alimentação e bebidas, TV a cabo, conteúdos, mídia, entretenimento. Para mais informações visite www.inovaconsul[ng.com


INOVA CONSULTING | DPC direção de pesquisa e conteúdos




The World In 2033: Big Thinkers And Futurists Share Their Thoughts hbp://www.forbes.com/sites/sap/2013/02/08/the-‐world-‐in-‐2033-‐big-‐thinkers-‐and-‐futurists-‐share-‐their-‐thoughts/ Put yourself back in 1993. Could you have predicted the success of the web, tablets and smartphones, priva[zed space travel, the rise of terrorism, or the myriad of small changes that impact how you live today? To do that going forward and to predict our world in 2033, you need the voices of the smartest minds on the planet to spot trends in their areas of discipline and give us insight into where we are heading. Interviewed, and quoted directly for this piece are just such a group of visionaries, leaders, and big thinkers like: •  Ray Kurzweil on Technology •  Robert Kaplan on Global Conflict •  Khan Academy on Educa[on •  Virgin GalacHc on Space Travel •  Oliver Bussmann on The Global Workforce •  John Allen on Religion •  Dr. Gene Robinson on Global Climate, and •  Bonus insights from an aspiring leader

Whether you just read your favorite author, research your area of interest, download the supplemental deck, or view them all together, you will see that these visionaries agree on two things: there will be change – some[me drama[c change – in our future, and there is . . . hope.

On Technology: Ray Kurzweil “20 years from now, biotechnology – reprogramming biology as an informa*on process – will be in a mature phase. We will rou[nely turn off genes that promote disease and aging such as the fat insulin receptor gene that tells the fat cells to hold onto excess fat. We will be able to add genes that protect us from diseases such as cancer and heart disease. Major killers such as these will be under control. We will be growing new organs from stem cells that are created from our own skin cells. We will be able to rejuvenate our organs in place by gradually replacing aging cells that contain gene[c errors and short telomeres with cells containing our own DNA but without errors and with extended telomeres. Overall we will be adding more than a year every year to your own remaining life expectancy, which will represent a turning point in life extension. We will be online all the [me in virtual / augmented reality. We won’t be looking at devices such as tablets and phones. Rather, computer displays will be fully integrated with real reality. Three-‐dimensional pop ups in your visual field of view will give background informa[on about the people you see, even a [p that someone just smiled at you while you weren’t looking. The virtual display can fully replace your real field of view puqng you into a totally convincing fully immersive virtual environment. In these virtual environments, you can be a different person with a different body for each occasion.



Your interac[ons with the realis[c virtual projec[ons of other people will also be completely convincing. Search engines won’t wait for you to ask for informa[on. They will know you like a friend and will be aware of your concerns and interests at a detailed level. So it will pop up periodically and offer something like “You’ve expressed concern about Vitamin B12 geqng into your cells, here’s new research from four seconds ago that provides a new approach to doing that.” You’ll be able to talk things over with your computer, clarifying your needs and requests just like you’re talking with a human assistant. Ar[ficially intelligent en[[es will be opera[ng at human levels meaning they will have the same ability to get the joke, to be funny, to be sexy, to be roman[c. However, the primary applica[on of this technology will be to improve our own ability to do these things.” Raymond “Ray” Kurzweil is an American author, inventor, futurist, and director of engineering at Goog l e . F o r a dd i *ona l i n s i g h t s , g o towww.kurzweilai.net On Global Conflict: Robert D. Kaplan “In 2033, global conflict will be widespread and chao[c, but not necessarily more violent. Rather than the post-‐Oboman state system in the Middle East with hard borders and suffoca[ng central control, there will be a series of weak states and sectarian and ethnic regions in tense rela[onships with each other.

For example, Mosul in Iraq will have more in common with Damascus in Syria than with Baghdad, even as Aleppo in Syria has more in common with Baghdad in Iraq than with Damascus itself.

There will be an independent and decentralized Kurdistan, a more feisty ethnic Azeri region in northwestern Iran, even as Jordan and the West Bank meld together. In China there will be an ethnic-‐Han island in the center and Pacific coast living in reasonable ha rmony w i t h v i r t ua l l y i ndependen t Inner Mongolia, Muslim-‐Turkic Uighurstan, and Tibet. Chinese Yunnan will be the capital of Southeast Asia. Africa will have a green r e v o l u [ o n , w h i l e a t t h e s a m e [me Nigeria pulverizes into several pieces. In short, the next few decades will see the erosion of central authority in the former colonial world, which will be somewhat violent at first, before sebling down into a reasonable harmony. Geography will be more crucial than ever, even as technology makes the earth smaller and more claustrophobic.” Robert David Kaplan is an American journalist, (currently a Na*onal Correspondent for The Atlan*c magazine), chief geopoli*cal analyst a t S t r a K o r , a n d a u t h o r “The Revenge of Geography.” For addi*onal insights, go to www.RobertDKaplan.com.



On EducaHon: Khan Academy “Global Access: In twenty years, almost everyone on the planet will have access to the world’s best educa[onal materials. Almost every subject will be available for free online. A child in Mongolia would be able to learn anything from Algebra to String Theory to Greek History. Personalized learning: Students won’t be forced to learn in a “one-‐size-‐fits-‐all” model with everyone the same age learning the same thing at once. Rather, technology will allow the system to adjust to every student’s needs. A 35-‐year old would easi ly be able to brush up on Trigonometry. A 4th grader would be able to learn Algebra. Everyone will be able to focus on their own needs. Interac[ve classrooms: Teachers will spend less [me lecturing, and much more [me mentoring. Classrooms will be highly engaging environments with almost all [me spent on valuable human interac[ons (e.g., mentorship, peer tutoring) and more hands-‐on, cross-‐disciplinary, project-‐based learning. Competency-‐based creden[als: Students will be able to prove what they know, not by seat-‐[me, but with competency-‐based creden[als. An out-‐of-‐work 40 year old would not need to go back to school and pile up thousands of dollars of debt before employers took him seriously. Instead, he would be able to take an accoun[ng course online for free, prove what he knows, and get a job.

Shantanu Sinha is President and COO of Khan Academy, a not-‐for-‐profit with the goal of changing educa*on for the bePer by providing a free world-‐class educa*on for anyone anywhere. F o r a d d i * o n a l i n s i g h t s , g o towww.khanacademy.org. On Space Travel: Virgin GalacHc “Over the next 20 years, I believe thousands, and perhaps even millions, of private individuals will travel to space. Since the dawn of the space age, just over 500 men and women have been to outer space. With only a few recent excep[ons, these men and women have al l been government employees, handpicked by space agencies such as NASA and trained to an enormous degree. Their missions are worthwhile and worthy of our gra[tude and admira[on, but it is cri[cal to realize that for the overwhelming majority of us, government space programs are not our [cket to space. The challenge of sending individuals to space is being taken up by private companies, which have both tools and mo[ves those government agencies may not have. Recently, several entrepreneurs have started new businesses expressly designed to tackle this problem. Such future space travel won’t be enjoyed only by adventurers. As we progress through the 21st century, spaceflight may become nearly as common for travelers as taking a plane trip became for millions across the world during the 20th.



The technology that permits flights into space will also allow passengers to fly to far-‐flung places on Earth in record [me. By traveling out of the Earth’s atmosphere for a small amount of [me, a non-‐stop trip from New York to Sydney might take two to three hours instead of the 20-‐hour, mul[-‐leg trip required today. Furthermore, I believe air travel will be more environmentally friendly. Airlines ferrying passengers on regional routes will run small, short-‐hop planes on babery cells. Now is a fascina[ng [me for the commercial space industry. It is inspiring to see business leaders from different sectors applying their best ideas and prac[ces to the unique challenges of spaceflight. The next 20 years hold exci[ng, unexplored territory for the people of the world.” George Whitesides is President and CEO of Virgin G a l a c * c w i t h p l a n s t o p r o v i d e sub-‐orbital spaceflights to space tourists, suborbital launches for space science missions and orbital launches of small satellites. For a d d i * o n a l i n s i g h t s , g o to www.VirginGalac*c.com. On The Global Workforce: Oliver Bussmann “Over the past 20 years we have gone from the early stages of Internet to a fully connected world. By 2033, a “born-‐mobile” workforce will be constantly connected to both work and home life, using devices that are wearable – or even implantable.

Leadership structures will become increasingly flat, as roles shi} based on each individual’s strengths and capabili[es. Many decisions will become automated, using increasingly sophis[cated analy[cal tools, allowing people to focus on crea[ve endeavors that are uniquely human.” Oliver Bussmann is the CIO for SAP AG, the German mul[na[onal so}ware corpora[on that makes enterprise so}ware to manage business opera[ons and customer rela[ons. For add i[ona l i n s i gh t s , fo l l ow O l i ve r on Twiber @SAPCIO or on LinkedIn On Religion And The Papacy: John Allen “First, it will be increasingly led from the global south, where two-‐thirds of the 1.1 billion Catholics on the planet live today, and where three-‐quarters will be found by mid-‐century. Places such as Mumbai, Manila and Abuja will be to the 21st century what Paris, Leuven and Milan were to the 16th century – the primary centers of new intellectual imagina[on, pastoral leadership, and poli[cal momentum. As that transi[on unfolds, Catholicism on the global stage will become increasingly a church of the poor and a church commibed to the agenda of the developing world, meaning economic jus[ce, mul[lateralism, and opposi[on to war. Second, Catholicism in the West will be increasingly ‘evangelical,’ meaning commibed to defense of its tradi[onal iden[ty in an ever more secular milieu.



Once upon a [me, Catholicism was the culture-‐shaping majority in the West. Today it’s an embabled subcu l ture , and l i ke other subcultures, it’s learning to prac[ce a “poli[cs of iden[ty” as an an[dote to assimila[on. In Europe and North America, in other words, Catholicism will not so}en its role in the culture wars, but rather dial it up.” John L. Allen, Jr. is an American journalist, author of several books, a senior correspondent for the N a * o n a l C a t h o l i c Reporter, and va*canologist of CNN and NPR. For addi*onal insights, go to his Wikipedia page. On Global Warming: Gene Robinson “Twenty years ago, alarmists were already predic[ng calamitous effects in the near future from a warming planet due mainly to petroleum and coal combus[on. The 1990 best-‐seller Dead Heat painted a nightmarish picture of our world in 2020-‐2030 when the temperature would average six or seven degrees greater. The first IPCC reports of 1990 and 1995 supported such scary scenarios, giving them an aura of scien[fic respectability. What actually happened is that the mean global temperature since 1993 increased about 0.2 degree C through 2012 with most of that occurring in the record year of 1998, at the peak of a thirty-‐year warming trend. Since then, the global temperature has plateaued with no clear trend up or down. Because the flabening is at the high point of a warming trend, each year has to be among the warmest recorded years, as the media [relessly trumpets.

What a convenient way to mask the fact that although CO2 has con[nued to increase, temperature has not, in spite of the computer models. What, then, can we project for global warming in 2033? Instead of the abrupt warming that alarmists always say is about to start, my rather c loudy crystal bal l says g lobal temperature is more likely to con[nue showing no clear trend or to be at the beginning of a cooling trend. Alarmists will con[nue to blame every severe weather event on climate change and to oppose all energy projects except solar and wind. All studies suppor[ng the alarmist view will con[nue to be publicized in the liberal media while all studies reaching conclusions in opposi[on will be ignored. Liberal poli[cians will s[ll support schemes to tax carbon by trying to scare people of what will happen without them, even as the skep[cism of ordinary people con[nues to increase. Grants will s[ll be doled out to scien[sts whose previous results supported the poli[cally correct view while proposals from skep[cs go unfunded. In short, just as lible has changed with regard to the poli[cizing of the global warming theory in the last twenty years, lible is likely to change in the next twenty.” Dr. Gene D. Robinson is Professor Emeritus at James Madison University inVirginia and a u t h o r o f Global Warming: Alarmists, Skep[cs & Deniers – A Geoscien[st Looks at the Science of Climate Change, available at Amazon and most book s t o r e s . He i s a l s o t he pub l i s he r a t Moonshine Cove Publishing, LLC



Bonus Thoughts From A Future Leader “In the next two decades I believe my childhood desire to be Inspector Gadget will finally be realized. As it is now, our smartphones are prac[cally glued to our hands. They are almost an extension of our bodies. People are calling for the next step in technology to be ‘wearables,’ including devices such as web-‐enabled watches and eyeglasses. But is it really that far of a stretch to imagine that we’d skip the annoyance of having to “put on” our technology and instead just “plug in?” By 2033 I believe that technological devices will be directly implanted into our bodies. We are already on the cusp of this with cochlear implants and pacemakers, and it isn’t a stretch to see where this could go next. In our future society, the boundaries between machine and human, ability and disability, will be blurred. Go Go Gadget…” Paul G. Brown is a Ph.D. Candidate at Boston College. For addi*onal insights, go to paulgordonbrown.wordpress.com ## For an addi[onal view of these quotes, view the supplemental deck on Slideshare. To read more about what Todd thinks today, follow me on Twiber at @toddmwilms or connect on LinkedIn. Maybe we can make it to 2033 together.

The World In 2064 hbps://medium.com/whatsnext/wednesday-‐aug-‐20-‐2064-‐c24af88637f4 Dear Diary: I am going out for ice cream. Yes, I feel indulgent tonight. I had a preby insane four-‐hour day at work. I was on my feet the whole [me, and my trackers say I’ve got so many extra calories that I can eat or drink anything I want for the next four hours. So I’m going to The Sweetline. My ride is plain—a typical U.S. Robots mini three-‐seater. The car introduces itself. WELCOME. I AM AL-‐76. WHERE WOULD YOU LIKE TO GO? Printed and assembled eight days ago at a car fab in Schenectady, New York, I see. Quark, another pop-‐up factory. AL-‐76’s probes seem a bit jumpy. It hiccups as it scans ahead every few hundred yards, devouring informa[on from the GLM like…What did they used to call it? A SPONGE. Thanks AL-‐76. (Historical Note: The Global Local Micro Network was created by the mega-‐merger of Cisco Business Machines and Appltel Corp. in 2021.) This is a busy stretch, the heads-‐up shows AL-‐76 is hyper-‐tuning for squirrels and stray cats. It is seeking deer and falling branches; and of course other cars, even though no one’s seen a crash since 2025.



I usually like LessTraveled, although their standards seem to be slipping a bit. Cloud car services are geqng preby compe[[ve these days; I should have waved off AL-‐76 for a real cruiser. Then again you never know who you’ll meet here . Anyone can subscr ibe to LessTraveled, but mostly they market to people like me: singles under 40. Which means the cars are smaller and you pay for different services. I get a lot of discounts at restaurants via LessTraveled. The transporta[on service you subscribe to is all about where you are in your life right now. If I was married with kids I would probably subscribe to FamilyVan and then I’d get groceries delivered whenever I want them, for free. It’s a very preby, muggy night. The highway is smooth, the road sensors are hardly bleeping at all and we haven’t passed any repair drones. I can’t say I miss the smell of smoothing agent, they spray it everywhere as soon as the sensors report any hint of a crack or bump. I feel the AL-‐76 dri} to a stop. The windshield tells me a squirrel is passing. Apparently, 50 years ago, squirrels used to fear roads. It was bred out of them. Now they just step right out. Nothing is going to run them over. Cloud-‐based subscrip[on-‐driven automo[ve lifestyle services are good for squirrels.

Off we go. While various predic[ons exist regarding self-‐driving cars—one analyst thinks we’ll all drive them by 2026, but it’s hard to imagine regula[ons changing so fast—it also makes sense that we won’t own them ourselves. A}er all, how o}en do you use a car? Large networks make it possible to be more efficient than ever before, which is why services like AirBnb and Uber are thriving. More automa[on will yield ever-‐higher dividends—the CEO of Uber has suggested that the Uber fleet will eventually be all self-‐driving cars. Ice Cream I love the Sweetline Ice Cream Manufactory. The ice cream goes from cow, to pasteurizer, to freezer, to your dish or cone along a beau[ful lible assembly line. It’s enclosed in glass so that you can watch it all happen. I admit that this is part of the fun for me. I like watching machines do their work. If you want, you can request ice cream by the name of your cow. I do not have a favorite cow. The cows each have news feeds if you are interested. They’re mostly for kids, of course: BETSY-‐COW’S DIARY AUGUST 20, 2064 Time for milking! Ate some grass. Ate some more grass! Stomachs 1–4 all working great! Mooed loudly! Had my regular automa[c health check. I am a healthy cow! Mooed loudly! A great day!



The cows don’t write this of course. The cows are filled with [ny microphones listening for moos, with GLM trackers, and with floa[ng sensors in their stomachs monitoring acid levels. Bots tend the herd. When it is [me to be milked they all get a lible milking buzz in their ears and they line up to be milked. The milk flows right into a pasteuriza[on tank connected to the ice-‐cream machines. Some people really do get into the cows and you can have a T-‐shirt printed for you right there where you get your ice cream, with slogans like TEAM BETSY. There is a commercial for the Sweetline chain that shows how one couple met because they each preferred mint chocolate chip ice cream made from a par[cular Guernsey cow named Ezekiel. I probably saw that commercial because I’m affiliated with LessTraveled. If I had children I would have seen a commercial about adop[ng your ice cream cow. A factory is no longer a big building filled with big machines. Industrial designers are already hard at work on [ny mul[-‐purpose factory-‐style kitchens — like Swiss Army knives. 3-‐D printers can solve a lot of manufacturing problems, but not all of them. Tex[le produc[on, food prepara[on, and the like will remain the domain of purpose-‐built machines. Let’s call them VSALs, for “Very Small Assembly Lines.” Specialized devices speaking a similar language. They are a key component of the Industrial Internet.

A New Friend There is a low boop noise and upon my windshield there is projected a picture of a young woman. It tells me her name is Susan Calvin. She looks abrac[ve to me and I can see at a glance that we share a number of interests in history, technology, and graphic design. She is a cat person while I am a dog person, but I can look beyond that. Since I don’t gesture her picture away the car takes a right, and in a minute we pull up in front of a pleasant-‐looking modern apartment building. She comes out and the car door opens. She hops in. Hello, Susan, nice to share a ride with you. Nice to meet you, Hari. Susan gives me a big, winning smile. She knows my name too, of course. Like me she is a subscriber to LessTraveled. Since it is an automo[ve network for young people it o}en suggests that you share a ride with someone compa[ble. It saves everyone money and [me and means LessTraveled can put fewer cars on the road. It’s interes[ng when you scan old history scrolls to learn just how panicked everyone was about total global micro-‐surveillance. They just didn’t see it as a means of libera[on, like we do now. Of course they lived in the era of giant government-‐run spying computers like Mul[vac. No one could imagine the upside of having every human interac[on observed by penny sensors at all [mes. I’m glad to live in a world where a young woman can hop into a self-‐driving car with a total stranger and not feel a bit of concern.



I’m going to go get some ice cream, I say. Unwevs! I love ice cream. Do you want to go swimming? I’m mee[ng friends. Sure. But I didn’t bring trunks. Sensors are everywhere, but right now they can only measure a few things — heart rate, temperature, number of steps, and the like. But new, more unusual devices are far more sensi[ve to their surroundings. There is a cup that knows what beverages you are drinking — and devices that count the calories of foods, not by forcing you to select from a list but by actually looking at the foods themselves. Anything that can be quan[fied, probably will be quan[fied. And once it can be quan[fied it can be analyzed and understood. New Trunks Swim trunks, I tell AL-‐76. Please make them red and white and have them cut off below the knee. That sounds nice, says Susan. Car: I would like a red-‐and-‐white one-‐piece! We look at each other briefly then shi} our aben[on to the car’s windshield, where we start to see the whole process unfold. Pictures of the swim-‐trunks float before us, superimposed onto 3-‐D versions of our bodies. We look nice together.

A few miles away, a strategically-‐placed assembly line (about three [mes the size of the one used to make the ice cream at Sweetline) gears up and sews me a pair of trunks. For Susan, it makes a one-‐piece in the same colors. One machine picks the fabrics, one dyes them, one sews, one finishes. It takes a few minutes and twenty other pieces of clothing are made at the same [me. Now comes the baton toss: A self-‐driving shuble car takes our clothes, and the other ar[cles of clothing, out to the highway. It enters traffic (on the windshield we see a map and dots) and begins to go from car to car, extending a tube and shoo[ng ar[cles into the car’s trunk. Then that car will drive for a bit and hand off various ar[cles — clothes, groceries, baked goods, and the like — to other cars. In my opinion, CarNet is one of the greatest accomplishments of human civiliza[on, the way moving cars deliver items from one to another un[l they reach their des[na[on — typically another moving car. Our swimsuits are now six minutes away. Which is fine because we’re here at the Sweetline and it’s [me for ice cream. I tear myself away from the windshield and go in and order. Of course I could order right from the car, and Sweetline could deliver me some ice cream by CarNet. But this is a nice old-‐fashioned place with blue [le on the walls and people available to answer any ques[ons about the ice cream. They wear white hats. I always wanted to work here when I was a kid.



We are uncovering capacity that we never knew existed. For example, most hotels would be happy with 60% occupancy on a typical night, which is obviously quite inefficient; the hotel industry can do all sorts of things online to dynamically price and market those rooms. Other services—here AirBNB comes to mind—are excellent at iden[fying new kinds of capacity and exploi[ng it. This is s[ll a new approach, and some of the early players are winning big. But there are literally hundreds of startups seeking to be the “Uber for X,” and through itera[on, over the next few decades, we will find efficiencies that we never imagined. Supply Chain It’s a nice night so we sit at the picnic tables. Susan’s diet trackers tell her she can enjoy ice cream as long as she swims for 20 minutes later, so she has a small cone, custom-‐made to the exactly quan[[es communicated by her tracker to the ice-‐cream maker. I have a huge cone with sprinkles. It’s preby great. We make small talk. Susan builds visualiza[on tools for life coaches and therapists, so that they know everything that’s going on in their pa[ent’s lives. She’s part programmer, part graphic designer, part data scien[st. I tell her about my job in babery design and delivery. At first she thinks I design the baberies myself, but that’s basically a genius-‐level gig. What I do is a lot so}er: I keep track of all the rela[onships between all the companies that go into the real-‐[me babery supply chain. So when your car pulls up to a kiosk and a new babery is installed, that’s all done by robots, of course.

But underneath that are a ton of human rela[onships — problems of real estate, and who owns what intellectual property. You can’t just step all over that when you decide to insert tab A into socket B. So when a new babery is coming out I go from manufactory owner to kiosk manager and explain what’s needed and what’s new, and how they may need to retool their kiosks, and what raw materials they might need, and how to make sure that waste is transported according to federal guidelines. They’re going to need to spend money, a}er all. We don’t take that for granted in the babery industry. I think I love the CarNet baton toss and watching the ice cream being made so much because it isn’t just robots touching each other. I see this grand human orchestra[on, all these people working together. I know how hard it can be to build rela[onships that make all of this possible. We can see our car from our picnic table. A}er a few minutes a small car pulls up next to ours and two things happen: The car extends a tube and shoots a package into our trunk, so that’s done. Our swimsuits are here! My wrist buzzes to let me know that the money has been withdrawn from my LessTraveled account. And, then, two people get out, and Susan’s wrist beeps, announcing her friends Gaal Dornick and Hober Mallow have arrived. Coincidentally their car was carrying our swimsuits.



Susan introduces us. I can’t tell if they are a couple or not. Of course if they were single I would know that, so they probably are in a rela[onship but just aren’t announcing it yet. I just ordered a new swimsuit, says Susan. Oh cool, says Hober. I should get a new one too. My other pair is a few weeks old. We all chat a lible about how nice the night is and how much fun it is to be out. We all eat ice cream. Then it’s [me to go. Susan has the easy op[on to go with Gaal and Hober — a polite way to signal that this won’t turn into a date, but is just friendly — but she doesn’t. She gets back into our car. The future is in big, powerful baberies. And baberies are geqng smarter: they have smarts of their own, the ability to signal how they are opera[ng, and even keep track of things like humidity. This will allow for many small, [ny, incremental changes. Enormous leaps in materials science and computer technology are going to be preby rare, but incremental change can happen by analyzing big data and truly working to understand it. The future is probably thousands, or mil l ions, of incremental op[miza[ons as opposed to any one single colossal technological advance. Swimming It turns out a friend of Susan lives on a lake, near Terminus sta[on.

When we open the trunk of our car there are the swimsuits, ready to pull from their travel tubes. There are lots of people here, making drinks the old-‐fashioned way, with cups and bobles. I let my earpiece guide me to my host and introduce myself. He’s a man in his 40s in great shape, Lawrence Robertson. He must exercise constantly. According to his bio, he created an app that matched people to cats that fit their personal profile. That’s why he can afford this lake house. I change in his spare bedroom and come out to find that Susan has changed too. I have to swim if I’m going to jus[fy that ice cream, she laughs. She runs to the dock and jumps off. Then she yells: it’s very cold. I go in too and we both tread water for a while, warming up. Just swimming. The sun is going down. Susan dives and comes up with a smooth stone. Here, she says. I got you this. I put it in the pocket of my trunks. I’m grateful they have a pocket. I didn’t ask for one. A few more people dive off the dock. We all know each other’s names and interests. Susan swims du[fully out and back for ten minutes. I watch the sun drop behind the horizon, enjoying the reflec[on over the lakefront.



As I get out of the water, Hober jumps in. He’s wearing a [ny inflatable cast around his ankle. Hober yells out, hurt it at soccer! He flops around on his back. The cast glows briefly to tell him to stop moving so much, and he goes s[ll and takes a long breath. This is preby nice, he says to me. I spend the night as I spend so many nights: smiling, realizing how much I have in common with people, flir[ng, talking about our jobs. But unlike many of the people here I have an early morning. Most of them work in the crea[ve industries. But kiosk and manufactory people tend to be up and to work by 9AM. I go find Susan and tell her it was nice to meet her. She’s not bothered I’m leaving, of course. I’m not quite sure what she thinks of me. She’s with some friends. She gives me a hug goodbye. My car pulls up on the gravel path outside. I look around but no one else needs a ride. I’m a lible saddened by that. I let the car drive me home. When the car reaches my apartment I get out and it drives away. My front door unlocks automa[cally and I walk in.

It’s a very quiet place, my apartment. I like it simple. No screens, just a few chairs. There’s a kitchen manufactory but I hardly use it. It feels a lible empty tonight, to be honest. My swim trunks are wet and I wonder why I didn’t just leave them for the car company to deal with. Then I think for a moment about hanging them up to dry, but it’s going to be Fall soon and I probably won’t go swimming again this season, so why bother? They’ll feel weird hanging up in front of the nice white walls. I throw them in the composter and it begins to beep. Something is wrong. I retrieve them and feel the weight of the lake stone in the pocket. I pull it out. It’s very preby, very old, just a rock, of course. But it’s also something solid and permanent. I like that another human being gave me this old, solid, ar[fact of the earth. It’s a welcome reminder of just how long this world has been here. I like that it came from Susan. I’ll see her again, I’m sure of it. I put the rock on a small shelf above the kitchen units, and it catches some of the moonlight through the window. I am very pleased with the effect. Then I throw the swim trunks away again, and the composter accepts them without complaint. This ar[cle is a part of GE’s “What’s Next” collec[on that gathers perspec[ves from the makers of tomorrow. Do you have a vision for the future? Tweet @generalelectric for the opportunity to collaborate on “What’s Next.”


Para conhecer todos os conteúdos disponíveis visite www.inovaconsul[ng.com

Notas



contato@inovaconsul[ng.com www.inovaconsul[ng.com

conteúdos

Estudos e Relatórios de Pesquisa: •  futuro, prospec[va e foresight •  drivers & megatendências •  tendências comportamentais •  tendências de negócio •  tendências setoriais •  insights de negócio Conteúdos Acadêmicos e Empresariais Futuro, Tendências, Inovação: •  ar[gos •  papers •  apresentações •  livros •  cri[cas literárias •  research notes

consultoria educação – INOVA BUSINESS SCHOOL

Futuro e Tendências •  futuro, prospec[va e foresight

aplicado à estratégia de negócio •  predições e [melines •  tradução e aplicação de

tendências no negócio •  gestão por cenários e

mapeamento de realidades futuras

•  trend maps & visão 2020 Inovação •  mindset inovador •  criação, construção e

disseminação corpora[va de programas de cultura e gestão da inovação

•  inovação estratégica, modelos e projetos de inovação

•  empreendedorismo corpora[vo •  design thinking aplicado à gestão •  cria[vidade e idea[on •  geração de insights

MBA Execu[vo e Pós-‐MBA com especializações inéditas nas áreas de: •  tendências e inovação •  cria[vidade, storytelling e design

thinking •  empreendedorismo, marke[ng,

branding e comunicação •  estratégia, negócios digitais e

midias sociais •  finanças, pessoas e operações Palestras In Company sobre os temas: •  futuro: visão 2050 •  design thinking ac[on lab •  storytelling, cria[vidade,

pensamento lateral e es]mulo cria[vo

•  tendências e insights para negócios

•  ferramentas e metodologias para conhecer o futuro e as tendências

Programas In Company com os temas: •  observatório de tendências •  Branding •  Storytelling •  Empreendedorismo •  Corpora[vo •  inovação estratégica •  cria[vidade e design thinking •  audit e desenvolvimento de

competências de inovação Masters de Especialização •  coolhun[ng e pesquisa de

tendências •  gestão da inovação e inovação

estratégica •  como fazer apresentações e falar

em público

INOVA CONSULTING


contato@inovaconsul[ng.com

www.inovaconsul[ng.com

Av. Paulista 1765 7o andar, conj 72CV: 7833 01311-‐200, São Paulo – SP Tel.: +55 (11) 3075-‐2866