The World Bank and The World Bank and Adaptation: Adaptation:

Asia & the PacificAsia & the Pacific

AIACC Workshop PhilippinesAIACC Workshop Philippines

Nov 2004Nov 2004 Ian Noble

The World Bank

Adaptation and the World Adaptation and the World BankBank

• Bank has focused more on mitigation than adaptation– Why?

• Opportunities for additional carbon finance through CDM

• Much of climate change activity relies on GEF funding – until now mostly mitigation

• Strong synergies with other goals – especially air quality (indoor & outdoor); off grid electrification etc

– Actions• Series of reports, culmination in “Look Before

You Leap” (Ian Burton & Maarten van Aalst)

Core PrinciplesCore Principles

• Climate risk management approach means that the Bank should assess, and where necessary act upon, the threats and opportunities that result from both existing and future climate variability, including those deriving from climate change, in all project and country level activities.

• A Development Perspective on Adaptation means that adaptation to climate change is recognized as part of the development process and not separated from it. – The process is country driven and focuses on national

needs and local priorities.

– It does not seek to factor benefits into global and local,

– Nor does it seek precise breakdowns of costs into baseline and incremental.

Adaptation ProjectsAdaptation Projects

• Africa Ecological Systems– Analytical methods– Cross country

comparisons– Identify options– Near completion

• Colombia– Improving

knowledge bases– Assessing impacts

and options– Identifying

measures– Just starting– GEF Special Priority

for Adaptation

Caribbean Projects Caribbean Projects • CPACC

– Stage I• Capacity Building• Instrumentation

& Monitoring• Sharing data &

information• Assessment of

current planning

• MACC– Stage II

• Institution Building

• Modeling & monitoring

• CIDA activity– Initial steps in

incorporating adaptation into national planning in two countries

• Current Plans - SPA– Tackle interlinkages between the three

MEAs including adaptation issues– Develop institutions, planning and legal

processes based on sustainable development ideas that include adaptation

Adaptation ProjectsAdaptation Projects

• Kiribati– Spans cabinet

planning to community decision making

– Community agreed options & priorities

– Goal – an adaptation-aware structural adjustment operation

• India / South Asia– National and regional

vulnerability assessment down to local vulnerability (state and sub-state)

– Enhanced modelling of impacts

– Identification of options leading to government and local actions

– Close cooperation with governments of India and Second National assessment

Models of AdaptationModels of Adaptation

UNDP UNDP Adaptation Adaptation

Policy Policy FrameworkFramework

The “conventional” view of The “conventional” view of adaptationadaptation

• Adaptation is an additional cost and thus should be funded by those responsible

• There is a high degree of uncertainty in climate projections

• Form collaborative links with international organisations

• Improve our projections of climate change• Identify hot spots• Understand traditional coping strategies• Build capacity in all sectors• Mainstream adaptation into the development

process

Current Adaptation ProjectsCurrent Adaptation Projects

Usual outcome• Assess literature• Assess current and future

vulnerability • Increase local forecasting

capacity (downscaling)• Assess institutional structures• Develop adaptation options• Costing and prioritizing• Implement priorities• Monitor and assess outcomes• Compare lessons learnt

We need to rethink our messageWe need to rethink our message

Get on with it!

A A restatedrestated message message

Based on these major points• Urgency - climate change is occurring

now• Climate variability and change is

currently a threat to development• We know enough about the nature of

climate change to take sensible decisions about adaptation now

• A climate risk & development perspective approach

• Can we assess the costs of adaptation?• What are the critical next steps?

Restated messageRestated message

Urgency – message for all governments and all sectors

o Climate change is occurring nowo We are all affectedo Early action can avoid many of the

impactso The poor are currently, and in the future

will remain, the most severely affectedWhy are the poor most vulnerable?o Least resources to cope; o Least resources to adapt; and o Often live in marginal areas

Climate change is a threat to Climate change is a threat to developmentdevelopment

o Improved conditions in some places

o But for the bulk of the world’s poor, climate change will make the daily task of survival even more difficult

The most important adaptive action is to improve the livelihoods of the poor

o Provide better capacity to cope with current pressures – not just climate

o Look ahead at the way that all pressures will change in the future

o Climate change will be an important component of those pressures

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Distribution of cultivated land

according to climate impact on cereal

production capacity,ECHAM4 2080s,Rain-fed multiple

cropping

DEVELOPED

DEVELOPING

Vertical: percent of cultivated landHorizontal: cereal impact (percent)

Source: Fischer et al., 2002

We can act nowWe can act now

o We will never be able to predict climate with the precision that we would like

o But, we already know enough about the core climate trends to make sensible decisions about adaptive measures

o Most actions have to start with current coping (in)capacities with current climate variability

What will it cost?What will it cost?

o Adaptation should be only a small part of the total development budget,

o But a part that should largely be paid by the developed world.

o However, if progress on adaptation was to falter over prolonged negotiations to identify and fund incrementality in adaptation, we will be doing the whole development task a great disservice.

o Beware the quagmire of cost benefit analyses of adaptation versus mitigation

GEF

Adaptation

Increment

Current Development

Country responsibility

Global Environmental Benefits

Current Development – current status of the country

Country Responsibility – actions required as part of normal development process

Adaptation Increment – additional actions necessitated by climate change

Adaptation and incrementality Adaptation and incrementality (simplified)(simplified)

GEF Core operations

What are the critical next What are the critical next steps?steps?

o First, we can always benefit from better projections of climate change, but let’s not allow them be a rationale for inaction in other areas

What are the critical next What are the critical next steps?steps?

o We do need capacity building – both within developing country institutions, but just as much in institutions in the developed world and especially development agencies

o But again do not let capacity building become a diversion; i.e. “busy work” to keep the work programs flowing

What are the critical next What are the critical next steps?steps?

o One of the core capacity building issues is, whose capacity? o Limited value in training the local

meteorological department nominee as the climate change contact point if,

o (1) they have little influence beyond their department; and

o (2) they will probably rotate out of their position within two years. (And I am not just

talking about developing countries here).

What are the critical next What are the critical next steps?steps?

o Let’s be realistic. We are not going to solve the whole development conundrum through the vehicle of adaptation to climate change.

o There is an “adaptation deficit”. Many groups are not sufficiently adapted to current climates so we start from a long way behind.

o So focus on a “climate risk approach”.

What are the critical next What are the critical next steps?steps?

o There is a second ‘adaptation deficit’ among the scientific and technical communities.

o It is knowledge of how institutions, communities and individuals use new information and, in particular, forecasts.

o And especially, how do they respond to information & forecasts

o And especially forecasts that will not necessarily always be correct and where error poses a significant risk, o whether it be to your career path within the WB,

the Indian Civil Service or your life.

India & South Asia ProjectIndia & South Asia Project

We are putting a major effort We are putting a major effort into India. Why?into India. Why?

India matterso The number of people in povertyo The emissions and future emissions

o India and China will be major determinants of future climate change.

o India has huge scientific and technical capacity

o There are huge payoffs for the Bank and GoI in getting our respective roles right

Have I been able to follow my Have I been able to follow my own advice in India?own advice in India?

• Extensive consultations with governments and other stakeholders (academic, NGOs)– Could still do more

• Build upon the Initial National Assessment and feed into Second

• Focus on agriculture and water sectors– Is this too narrow? Too wide?

• Four components• Complete by end 2005

India – Current coping India – Current coping strategiesstrategies

• Component 1: What are the coping strategies of populations most affected by current climate variability and extremes, how effective are they, how are these affected by government policies and programs, and can current coping strategies and policies be strengthened?

• Select three areas (c. State size) – drought and flood affected

• Review & scoping of questions– Advisory group and expert panels

• Case studies and surveys

India – Tool boxIndia – Tool box

• Component 2: How is climate projected to change at the regional level and what are the projected impacts on water resources and agriculture? Which regions and community groups are most vulnerable to climate induced changes in water resources and agriculture, and which coping strategies might need to be enhanced or modified to deal with projected changes?

• Revised projections well under way • Extension of existing hydrological

modelling to better deal with human interventions

• New agricultural modelling

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INDIA

Projected impact of climate Projected impact of climate change on agricultural outputs change on agricultural outputs

(IIASA)(IIASA)

India – Explore some India – Explore some response optionsresponse options

• Component 3: What are the most important response options available to all institutions, including the GoI and the WB but also state regional and local institutions, to reduce the vulnerability of communities to climate variability and change?

• Stakeholder consultation to select the range of response options to explore

• Explore them drawing upon the toolbox and the expertise built up in developing it– Will we have the capacity to consider the

multiple pressures?

• Some exploratory cost–benefit analysis

India – Begin to develop good India – Begin to develop good practice guidancepractice guidance

• Component 4: How and where does climate variability and change propose a threat (or opportunity) to Bank and other development projects, and what constitutes good practice in managing these threats and opportunities?

• Look back of past Bank projects – where has adaptation been considered/missed

• Look ahead at pipeline of projects – where should adaptation be taken into account

• Indian governments and stakeholders engaged in a similar process

• Begin to build up a body of best practice guidance• Develop screening and design tool• Synthesis of where we have got to – short, technical

and non-technical versions

SummarySummary

A A restatedrestated message message

Based on these major points• Urgency - climate change is occurring

now• Climate change is a threat to

development• We know enough about the nature of

climate change to take sensible decisions about adaptation now

• A climate risk management & development perspective approach

• Can we assess the costs of adaptation?• What are the critical next steps?

Core PrinciplesCore Principles

• Climate risk management approach means that the Bank should assess, and where necessary act upon, the threats and opportunities that result from both existing and future climate variability, including those deriving from climate change, in all project and country level activities.

• A Development Perspective on Adaptation means that adaptation to climate change is recognized as part of the development process and not separated from it. – The process is country driven and focuses on national

needs and local priorities.

– It does not seek to factor benefits into global and local,

– Nor does it seek precise breakdowns of costs into baseline and incremental.

Will it work?Will it work?

What would be the measures What would be the measures of it “working”?of it “working”?

• We don’t aim to have “adaptation” projects on the ground

• We do aim to influence existing development plans

• But can that be demonstrated?• And, if we do have that influence, was

it a useful one?• And if it was useful, was it the best we

could have done?