the world according to vestact q2 (2011) and beyond. the end of qe2, technology valuations, time to...
TRANSCRIPT
The world according to Vestact
Q2 (2011) and beyond. The end of QE2, technology valuations, time to
get defensive?
What, me worry?
• The 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami after effects.• Middle East unrest ongoing• Chinese economy slowing• Federal Reserve ending current bond purchase program (QE2)• European debt issues unresolved• US debt issues finally being discussed, political deadlock• Global inflation concerns abated?
Middle East tensions still exist
• These pose risks to the oil price (inflation).• But Saudi Arabia (the elephant) has settled.• Iran remains the “unknown unknown”
(Rumsfeld).• Democracy is “good” for economic growth.• Who cares about Qaddafi?
Chinese economy cooling
• Which means inflation is less of a concern....• Which is what we wanted.....• Growth closer to that “magic 8 %” Beijing
looking for• Commodity prices tracking sideways for last
few weeks.
QE2 is not a big boat.....
• And is unlikely to have a big impact when the Fed bond buying program ends......
• Why? Because this has been telegraphed to markets.
• AND rates are likely to stay lower for longer.
Greece has defaulted before.....
• 5 times since 1829!!!!• Spain has defaulted 13 times since 1476.• Germany and France 8 times.• And the UK NEVER!!• But the Euro will remain intact.• Because the EU can’t just let it go. It is akin to the
USA letting California go.• Stuck with the Greek tragedy......for better or for
worse.
US Debt problems
• Closer to resolution, at least it is being debated, a year ago it was a non starter.
• Will not default.• Will find common ground.• Will be working through the process over
decades.