the workshop for the national focal points on the implementation of the brussels programme of action...
TRANSCRIPT
THE WORKSHOP FOR THE NATIONAL FOCAL POINTS ON THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE BRUSSELS
PROGRAMME OF ACTION FOR THE LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
New York
17 – 21 May 2004,
Role of Agriculture in the Development of LDCs
Harmon C. ThomasChief
Commodity Policy and Projections ServiceCommodities and Trade Division
FAO, Rome
I. Development challenges facing LDCs and
the role of the agricultural sector
II. FAO approach to the implementation of the
BPoA
Outline of the Presentation
I. Development challenges facing LDCs and the role of the agricultural sector
• Challenges:
- reducing poverty; and
- enhancing food security
Extent of poverty: proportion of the poor in total population(Select LDCs)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Benin
Senegal
Tanzania
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Guinea
Yemen
Nepal
Uganda
Ethiopia
Djibouti
Burkina Faso
Mauritania
Bangladesh
Rwanda
Eritrea
Niger
Mali
Chad
Gambia
Malawi
Mozambique
Madagascar
Zambia
PercentSource: World Bank , World Development Indicators 2003
Extent of food insecurity: percentage of population undernourished, 1998-2000 (available data for 36 LDCs)
Above 70% 30 – 49% 10 -29% DR of Congo Sierra Leone Lesotho Somalia Tanzania Senegal Afghanistan Central Africa R Lao Burundi Ethiopia Burkina Faso Madagascar Togo 50 – 69 % Rwanda Gambia Liberia Sudan Eritrea Cambodia Uganda Mozambique Niger Mali Angola Bangladesh Nepal Haiti Malawi Benin Zambia Yemen Mauritania Chad Guinea Below 10%
Myanmar Source: FAO, SOFI 2002
I. Development challenges and the agricultural sector
• Importance of the agricultural sector in LDCs
• Why is the agricultural potential in LDCs underexploited?
1. Importance of Agriculture in LDCs
- Proportion of population dependent on agricultural activities
- Share of agriculture in GDP
- Share of agriculture in exports
- Agricultural potential
The rural sector: population size, 2001
CountryRural pop. as % of total pop.
Total pop (million)
LDCs Total
Rwanda
74
94
684.3
8.0
Bhutan 93 2.1
Burundi 91 6.4
Nepal 88 24.1
Uganda 85 24.2
Malawi 85 11.6
Ethiopia 84 67.3
Burkina Faso 83 12.3
Cambodia 82 13.5
Eritrea 81 3.9
Laos 80 5.4
. . .
. . .
Share of population dependent on agriculture for livelihood (frequency distribution of LDCs)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
20 - 39% 50 - 69% Above 70%
Agricultural population as percentage of total population
Num
ber
of c
ount
ries
Share of agriculture in GDP (frequency distribution of 42 LDCs)
below 15 4
Share of Agricultural GDP in Total GDP (%)
0
4
8
12
16
20
below 15 15-24 25-39 40 andabove
percent
Nu
mb
er
of
co
un
trie
s
Share of agricultural products in total merchandise exports (frequency distribution of LDCs)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Less than 5 5-25 25-50 Greater than 50
Num
ber o
f cou
ntrie
s
Share of single agricultural commodity in total merchandise exports (frequency distribution of LDCs)
Above 40% 10 – 19% Below 10% Burundi Djibouti Liberia Sao Tome & Principe Tanzania, United Rep. of Niger Ethiopia Afghanistan Haiti Malawi Myanmar Mozambique Guinea-Bissau Sudan Nepal Rwanda Madagascar Bhutan Vanuatu Central African Rep. Eritrea Kiribati Congo, Dem. Rep. of Zambia Lao PDR 20 – 39 % Mauritania Burkina Faso Guinea Chad Senegal Comoros Bangladesh Benin Equatorial Guinea Mali Lesotho Somalia Zambia Togo Cape Verde Gambia Source: FAO (2003)
Agricultural potential (35 LDCs)
Arable land in use as % of potential
Number of countries
5 – 20% 13
Congo DRC; Mozambique; Central African R; Angola; Liberia; Guinea-Bissau; Mali; Madagascar; Zambia; Sudan; Chad; Tanzania; Guinea.
21 – 50% 8Gambia; Lao; Burkina Faso; Benin; Sierra Leone; Myanmar; Ethiopia; Cambodia;
51-90% 7Malawi; Nepal; Mauritania; Bangladesh; Togo; Uganda; Somalia;
Above 90% 7Burundi; Haiti; Yemen; Lesotho; Eriterea; Afghanistan; Rwanda.
Source: FAO 2003
2. Why is the agricultural potential in LDCs underexploited?
• Domestic factors– Low investment and utilization of modern technology– Ineffective domestic policy frameworks
• External factors- distorted international markets and the challenges arising from integrating into such
markets
Domestic factors
Low investment in agriculture
1992 1995 1999
Investment in agriculture (millions US $, at 1995 prices)
Burundi 15 22 15
Zambia 20 16 3
Madagascar 16 24 37
Nepal 69 34 71
Yemen 107 46 156Ethiopia 164 127 …..Myanmar 323 1705 3099
Source: FAO (2003)
Government expenditure on agriculture as a share of total expenditure
Source: FAO (2003)
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
Share of agriculture in GDP
Share of agriculture in total government expenditure
External assistance (ODA) to agriculture in all developing countries
4
8
12
16
20
24
billi
on U
S$
0
5
10
15
20
25
perc
ent
External assistance to agriculture (EAA) Share of EAA in total ODA
Why is the agricultural potential in LDCs underexploited?
External factors
• Differences in support to agriculture (rich vs. poor countries)
• Challenges arising from integrating into distorted international agricultural markets
External factors .... consequences
External factors .... consequences
Agricultural trade balance, 1960 to 2000
Least developed countries
Source: FAO data
External factors .... consequences
• Specific challenges
– Displacement effect of import surges – Continuing rise in food imports – Financing the increasing food import bills
Displacement effects of import surgesExamples of import surges and production shortfalls
Senegal - tomato production and tomato paste import
-1
9
19
29
39
49
59
69
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
To
mat
o p
rod
uct
ion
(
1000
mt)
-1
1
3
5
7
9
To
mat
o p
aste
imp
ort
(
1000
mt)
Production Import
Commerical food import bills - current US$
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,00019
70
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Year
US$
mill
ion
Commericial Food Imports LDCs Commercial Food Imports NFIDCs
Rising commercial food import bills – LDCs & NFIDCs
Rising commercial food import bills - LDCs
Source: FAO (2003)
1980-89 1996-2001 Change
million US$ percent
LDCs Total 2716 4985 84
Myanmar 17.1 145.7 752
Tanzania 39.8 202.7 409
Uganda 20.0 85.2 326
Haiti 66.5 247.7 272
Nepal 32.7 118.8 263
Malawi 12.0 40.9 241
Bhutan 3.4 11.2 230
Cape Verde 13.1 42.5 224
Benin 32.6 91.1 179
Laos 9.0 24.5 172
Bangladesh 341.7 891.3 161
Equatorial Guinea 4.1 8.4 103
Tuvalu 0.5 1.0 103
Kiribati 4.1 7.8 90
Zambia 33.1 61.8 87
Comoros 9.4 15.0 59
Cambodia 33.2 48.9 47
Ability to finance food import bills
Food imports as a percentage of total exports of goods and
services minus debt service, 1999
Haiti 62.7 Djibouti 39.7 Mauritania 56.4 Senegal 28.9 Rwanda 55.7 Burkina Faso 27.7 Guinea-Bissau 49.7 Niger 27.2 Mozambique 46.7 Bangladesh 26.8 Lesotho 44.0 Gambia 41.8 Burundi 26.1 Benin 21.0
Conclusions: What needs to be done from a development and food security perspective?
• Reform international agricultural markets – by reducing/eliminating distortions in such markets
• Improve the policy incentives in LDCs for productivity raising investments in agriculture
• Financial and technical assistance– to help LDCs diversify from excessive economic dependence
on one or a few agricultural commodities
I. Development challenges facing LDCs and
the role of the agricultural sector
II. FAO approach to the implementation of the
BPoA
Outline of the Presentation
II. FAO Approach to the implementation of the Brussels PoA
• Mainstreaming those aspects of the PoA within FAO’s mandate into its existing Programme of Work.
• Addressing the specific problems of LDCs on a case-by-case basis through FAO’s technical assistance programme.
• Annual reporting to FAO Council on progress of implementation
II. FAO Approach to the implementation of the Brussels PoA
FAO’s technical assistance to LDCs is focussed on:
– Strengthening supply-side capacity and production
– Responding to emergencies
FAO Contributions to the implementation of Brussels PoA: major areas of assistance
PoA Commitments Major FAO activities
Commitment 1 -FAO Anti-hunger programme
Commitment 3 - Food and nutrition education - Nutritional care and support for people with HIV/AIDS- Agricultural education, training and extension -Support for rural women-Food safety and quality standards- Building institutions that foster farmers’ and rural people’s organisations
Commitment 4 - Special programme for food security- Strengthening agricultural productive capacity: productivity, diversification and quality enhancement- Livestock production and health - Forest and forest management- Fishery industry: utilization, development and marketing
FAO Contributions to the implementation of Brussels PoA: major areas of assistance
PoA Commitments Major FAO activities
Commitment 4 (cont.)
- Assistance on emergencies- Support in policy formulation and agricultural development strategies- Food insecurity and vulnerability information and mapping system
Commitment 5 - Promoting regional economic integration by collaborating with Regional Economic Organisations (REO)- Support to the NEPAD initiative of the African continent- Technical analyses and support on trade negotiations- Assistance on agricultural commodities
Commitment 6 - Support to developing and implementing national forest programmes- Assistance for disaster preparedness and prevention
FAO and mobilization of resources for LDCs
• FAO field programme – In 2003, more than 510 FAO field projects, with a total budget
value of US$ 532 million, were active in 45 of the 49 LDCs.
• FAO assistance to LDCs in mobilising external assistance to agriculture and rural development projects.
– During 2001 – 2003, FAO assisted LDCs by mobilizing external funding commitments for 84 agricultural and rural development projects, amounting to total investments of US$1,428.9 million.
FAO Field Programme Delivery in LDCs by technical sector, 2003
Emergency 36%
Crops24%
Food Production Support
10%
Forestry6%
Natural Resources
4%
Rural Development
3%
Others17%
Thank you