the ‘waddenbarometer’ - waddenacademie · jan marinus propsma partoer herman verheij...
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The ‘Waddenbarometer’Prototype
Presentation at the Wadden Symposium
Leeuwarden
December, 10 2014
John Dagevos (Telos)
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General Background
• Long existing wish within the Dutch Wadden community
• Lots of detailed knowledge and information available, but
fragmented: strong desire for integration
• Recommendations from as well the National as the Northern Court
of Audit
• Strong desire of the Waddenfund to have a guiding monitor which
helps the Fund to set priorities
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The process of developing the
Waddenbarometer (1)
• In the Fall 2013 the Waddenacademie has explored the possibilities
• Chosen for the 3P approach of Telos in combination with IMSA
• February 2014 the assignment was given for developing a prototype
• February – June 2014: desk research and interviews with stakeholders to
identify the long term policy goals and to define the monitoring framework
(indicator set)
• July 2014 – today: data collection
• November, 13 2014: first official ‘coming out’ during the Waddenfondsdag in
Harlingen
• Today: presentation of the first results and debate
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• December 2014/January 2015: report
– Methodology
– First results
– Proposal for adjustment: goals, new indicators/research agenda, norms
– Attention for design and interactivity
• First half of 2015: discussion with the Wadden Community (validation: are
we measuring the right things in the right way?)
• Adjustment of the prototype
• Fall 2015: presentation of the final version of the Waddenbarometer
The process of developing the
Waddenbarometer (2)
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• How to define the Waddenregion?
• In the vision of the three ‘Wadden’provinces sustainable development
should be the guiding principle for the development of the Waddenregion.
But how to define and operationalize sustainable development?
• The Waddenregion is a large and very divers area: water, mainland,
islands. How to deal with this diversity on the one hand and avoid
presenting too many details on the other hand?
• Sustainability asks for an agenda of change: a shared agenda of all
stakeholders. But who are these stakeholders and how to give them a role
in the process of developing the Barometer?
A number of ‘issues’ beforehand
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The Waddenregion
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• By collecting most of the socio-economic data at municipal/regional level
• By collecting most of the ecological data at the level of the so called
‘kombergingsgebieden’
• By showing the results also on maps
How to deal with diversity in the
Waddenregion?
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Example: hotspotindex
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Example: musselbeds
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Example: economic growth
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Why stakeholder participation?
The nature of sustainability: intrinsic subjective/normative
The need for balanced growth: all interests should be taken in account
Stakeholders have valuable knowledge and experiences that can be used to
improve the Barometer
An early stage involvement of stakeholders helps to assure that:
The barometer gets enough support;
one is not confronted with unexpected and unnecessary/avoidable
opposition during the process of development
The awareness that we need everybody to make a change, we can’t just rely
on governments alone
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Stakeholders in the first round
Personen OrganisatiesMartijn de Jong Natuurmonumenten / PRW/Mosselconv
Kees van Es PRW
Waldina Hulshoff RCW
Bas Eenhoorn RCW
Bram van de Klundert Waddenfonds
Dick Hamhuis Waddenfonds
Oeds Bijlsma Prov Fryslân
Jan Marinus Propsma Partoer
Herman Verheij Waddenvereniging / WSF
Jaap Verhulst Min EZ
Arjan Berkhuizen Waddenvereniging
Klaas Laansma It Fryske Gea
Jeroen Jansen NAM
Ester Kuppen Waddenvereniging
Hans Revier Lector Lwd
Arjen Bosch De Laar
Reiner de Vries Gem Harlingen
Roel de Jong Wetterskip
Pier Schaper Wetterskip
Monique van Dungen GSP
George Wintermans (NAM) zoet-zout overgangen
JanPaul van Soest Gemeynt
Div Havensecretarissen Waddenhavens
Jeroen Dagevos St. De Noordzee
Fokke Jansma Vermilion
Durk van Tuinen Frisia
Mark van Rijselberghe Zoutwaterteelt Texel
Siegbert van de Velde NMF Groningen
André Faaij Energy Academy
Koos Lok ENSEA
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Telos‘ vision on sustainable development
Following Brundtland (1987) sustainable development concerns:
integrated optimization of economic, socio-cultural and ecological development conditions / principles (preventing negative trade-offs, stimulating win-win situations)
according to principles of efficiency, social justice, resilience
which at the same time optimizes development conditions for:
future generations (time)
other parts on the globe (space)
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How to make sustainable development measurable in
the Waddenregion?
Our answer: the Sustainability Balance Sheet
A model consisting of
capitals, stocks,
requirements, indicators and norms
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Food for thought?
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The framework of the Waddenbarometer
Stock 1
Stock 3
Stock 2Capital
theories
Requirem
ents
/goals
Policymakers/
Stakeholders
Indicator 1
Indicator 2
Indicator 3
Indicator 4
Norm
s
Science Policymakers/
Stakeholders
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Stocks per capital in the Waddenbarometer
Economic capital Socio-cultural capital Ecological capital
Labour Social and Economic
Participation
Nature and biodiversity
Capital Political Participation Land soil
Economic Structure (1) Art, culture and cultural
heritage
Sea soil
Economic Structure (2) Safety Air
Spatial conditions Health Salt (surface) water
Infrastructure/
connectivity
Housing and living
environment
Fresh (surface) water
Energy, raw materials
and consumables
Education Groundwater
Landscape
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Requirements/goals
Based on provincial, national, trilateral, international visions and policy
documents, laws and directives like:
• Trilateral Wadden Sea Cooperation
• Bird Directive
• Habitats Directive
• Water Directive
• OSPAR convention
• PKB
• ‘Wadden van Allure’
• ‘Naar een Rijke Waddenzee’
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Indicators
Indicate if the requirements are met
Should be simple
Come from reliable sources
Should be reproducible in time so that we can monitor the development in
time.
Should make comparison possible with other regions (benchmarking)
If possible, come from sources already used in the Waddenregion
(WaLTER, Waddenseaforum, PBL, Sovon etc.)
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Norms
Norms are based on:
Policy documents and (Inter)national agreements e.g.
Trilateral Wadden Sea Cooperation
Natura 2000
Habitats Directive
Kyoto Protocol
The Water Framework Directive
Comparison with other regions and in time
Expert judgment
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How does it look like in practice?
• A stock is represented by a pie diagram
with indicators as pieces of the pie.
• Indicators have different weights. That’s
why pie pieces differ in size.
• The colours of the pie pieces show how
we have to interpret the results.
• The indicator scores change in time
because of changes in the behaviour
of consumers and firms and as a
result of policy measures of
governments.
• These changes are shown by using
arrows.
• The dotted line shows the situation in
the previous measurement.
• An arrow directed outwards means
improvement, directed inwards
means worsening
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Ecological Capital
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Fresh water
The fresh surface water is clean and of good quality
• chemical quality• biological quality• Micro pollutants• physical chemical quality
There should be adequate water storage capacity in order to deal with periods of shortage (drying out) and surplus (retention)
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Fresh water
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Landscape
The identity of the landscape should be protected and, if possible, the naturaldevelopment should be strengthened
• meadows• urban area• hotspot index• natural area
Values of the landscape (like peace, quietness, darkness and openness) and of cultural heritage are of high quality and are being protected.
See also stock [art, culture and cultural heritage]• openness landscape from sea• openness landscape on land• noise• light emission
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Landscape
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Nature and biodiversity
• Four approaches possible:
1. Regulatory protection
2. Habitat functions
3. Food chain
4. Threat – Weighted Ecological Quality Area
• First three combined in three stocks: biodiversity, litoral and sublitoral
habitats, habitats on land
• T-EQA: systematic approach to assess quality of ecosystems
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Nature and biodiversity
The Wadden Sea fulfils its functions as nursery area for fish, stopping place for migratory birds, food- and rest area for winter visitors, breeding birds and mammals
There are enough food, rest and breeding grounds for mammals, fishes and birds
Free migration of organisms is possible as result of restoring ecological linking zones
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Biodiversity
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Litoral and sublitoral habitats
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Habitats on land
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Nature points
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Social-cultural Capital
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Social and economic participation
Social participation in society is guaranteed. Nobody is being excluded.
• social cohesion
People trust each other
Everybody has the right to cherish his or her own identity and diversity, unless this is restricting the right of other persons to do the same
Citizens are active in society • volunteers
Citizens are able to maintain themselves economically
• poverty• long-term unemployment• long term social welfare• disability• financial positions households
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Social and economic participation
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Art, culture and cultural heritageThe supply of cultural activities is sufficient and divers
• museums• performing arts
Each citizen can participate, active and passive, in cultural activities
The cultural heritage is being strengthened and protected. It is a carrier of the identity of the Waddenregion.
• municipal monuments• stock of protected archaeological heritage• pressure on legally protected areas• protected town- and villagescapes• national monuments• museums• state of maintenance of monuments
The maritime archaeological heritage will be protected and preserved
• maritime heritage
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Art, culture and cultural heritage
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Housing and living environment
Everyone has access to an affordable house of good quality
• new build homes• real estate value
There are sufficient public and daily amenities in the direct living environment. They are accessible for everybody.
• vacancy rate retail• satisfaction retail• distance to supermarket• number of people moving into region
Everyone is satisfied with their living environment: safe, healthy and pleasant
• satisfaction residential environment• satisfaction urban green areas
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Housing and living environment
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Economic Capital
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Labour
There is enough work in the Waddenregion and the surrounding regions
• unemployment rate• employment rate
The potential of the total potential workforce is being used
• ageing
The labour supply has at least a start qualification
• high educated workers
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Labour
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Energy, raw materials and consumables
Citizens consume less energy • gas use households• electricity use households• energy label houses
All consumed energy is producedsustainably
• wind energy• solar energy• bio-energy
The Wadden Islands are self supporting and sustainable with regards to their energy consumption
Non-renewable resources are being treated with great care
• gas resource depletion
The production of sustainable energy has become a core economic activity
• employment in sustainable energy
• employment growth in sustainable energy
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Energy, raw materials and consumables
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Economic structure (1)
The touristic sector has succeeded in becoming one of the key sectors of the economy of the Waddenregion
• tourism spending• domestic holidays• domestic overnight stays• employment recreation and tourism
The harbors of the Waddenregion have developed themselves to sustainable harbors: World Heritage worthy
• investments ports• employment ports• economic significance ports
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Economic structure (1)
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Some conclusions: ecological capital
• Environmental quality in general ok, but a number of issues:
– Salinisation: threat or chance?
– CO2 and NOx emissions still high
– Fresh surface water: polluted (like in the rest of the Netherlands)
• Landscape of high quality and highly rewarded, but the openness of the sea
is threatened
• Nature and biodiversity:
– land and borders of the Wad: OK
– Problems especially in the intertidal zones as shown in all approaches:
nature points, musselbeds and sea grass meadows and shellfish and
worm eating birds
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Some conclusions: social cultural capital
• Social and economic participation is under pressure: increasing poverty,
high youth unemployment
• Art, culture and cultural heritage are OK as far as we are measuring this:
more statistical information is needed
• Liveability, quality of life is under pressure: satisfaction with a number of
local amenities is relatively low, school infrastructure is an issue
• Safety as far it is related to classical issues as crime, violence etc.: OK.
Information on flood risks and earthquakes should be incorporated
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Some conclusions: economic capital
• Economic crisis is leaving its marks: very high and increasing
unemployment, negative economic growth (almost everywhere).
• Relatively high production of sustainable energy
• Tourism is scoring quite well
• Harbours under pressure
• Lots of information, especially on issues regarding the desired economic
transition, is lacking
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Final remarks
• The prototype is more or less finished. Now it should be validated and
debated. Key questions:
– are we measuring the right things,
– in the right way,
– and are the norms which we are using broadly accepted and shared?
• The existing visons for the Wadden region are foremost ecological and
partly economic. A social-cultural vision is lacking with exception of cultural
heritage
• Information is lacking as shown. Sometimes because the information still is
not collected or asks for more (time) investments. Sometimes because it’s
not available at the requested geographical level. The results of our study
can be used for setting a research agenda.
• A (further) connection needs to be made, directly and indirectly, with the
program of the Waddenfund
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Thanks for you patience and attention!!!
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Land soil
The soil is healthy and clean • heavy metals• eutrophication• acidification• salinization• pesticide
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Land soil
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Sea Soil
The soil is healthy/clean • [See also stock salt water]
The disturbance of the soil is so restricted that an undisturbed development of natural mussel beds and sea grass fields can take place
• closed fishing areas• subsidence• sand nourishment
The area of salt marshes will be enlargedto strengthen the natural functions of the Wadden Sea
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Sea Soil
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Groundwater
The groundwater is clean and of good quality
• heavy metals• eutrophication• acidification• salinization• pesticides
Sustainable freshwater supply is guaranteed
• drinking water use• drinking water from local sources
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Groundwater
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Sea water
The natural development of trenches and plates (for currents, sand) will not be hindered
• [See sea soil]• hydro morphological quality
The sea water is clean and transparent enough
• chemical quality• biological quality• micro pollutants• physical chemical quality
The food web is in balance • nutrient availability• suspended matter
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Sea water
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Air quality
The air is clean • nitrogen oxides concentration• ozone concentration• particulate matter concentration• nitrogen oxides emissions• particulate matter emissions
The Wadden Region is climate neutral • carbon dioxide emissions
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Air quality
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Political participation
Each citizen has the right to participate in political decision making and makes use of it.
• turnout municipal elections• turnout national elections• turnout regional elections• turnout water board elections
Citizens trust the government and socialinstitutions
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Political participation
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Health
The population is physical and mental healthy
• life expectancy
The population feels itself healthy • assessment of own health
The health care system is of good quality and accessible for everybody
• general practitioners• quality of hospitals• distance to hospitals
Everyone has their own responsibility for a healthy lifestyle
• insufficient daily exercise• high-risk behavior
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Health
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Safety
Everyone feels safe in the Waddenregion • feelings of insecurity
The Wadden Islands and the coast of the mainland are protected against sea level rise and storms
• flood risk• environmentally friendly coastal
defense
The chance of becoming a victim of a disaster, crime, violence or traffic accidents is negligible
• violent crimes• crimes against property• road safety• juvenile delinquency• chance of disaster
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Safety
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Education
The education system meets the needs of society
• youth unemployment• level of education
There are sufficient schools • primary schools• secondary schools
The education is of good quality • early school leavers• undelayed to diploma• final exam marks
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Education
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Economic structure (2)
The agricultural sector has succeeded in maintaining and strengthening its position by innovation and broadening its activities. The production is sustainable
• broadening of agricultural activities• turnover agricultural sector• share of saline agriculture in total
agricultural sector• productivity agricultural sector• Employment in key sector agro & food• biological agriculture• employment in agriculture
The fisheries sector has succeeded in maintaining its economic position and has become more sustainable (fishing techniques, energy use)
• turnover fisheries sector• broadening of fisheries activities• number of converted fishing vessels• fuel mix vessels
The bio based economy has developed itself to a key sector in the regional economy
• Employment bio-based sector
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Economic structure (2)
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Space, infrastructure and connectivity
There is enough space available for business development (industrial sites, commercial buildings)
• availability of business parks
A number of agricultural business parks have been established
• area agricultural business parks
The available space is managed with great care: economic, careful and efficient use of space and adjusted to todays demands
• outdated business parks• gross-net ratio business parks• converted or new business parks
Islands, harbours, business, amenities and economic centres are good accessible by all modes of mobility
• accessibility main roads• navigable depth harbors• accessibility train stations
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Space, infrastructure and connectivity
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Capital(goods)
Firms in the Waddenregion make sufficient profit to be able to invest
Firms invest sufficiently so that continuation of their businesses is guaranteed.
The regional production structure is permanently renewed
• startups• ending of firms• fast-growing firms
The regional economy is generating enough income
• GDP per capita• disposable income of households• economic growth• employment growth• growth of companies
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Capital(goods)