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The view from the buy-side May 22, 2015

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Page 1: The view from the buy-side - mlpassociation.org · 2014. MLP Distributions. Energy Earnings. ... Teekay Corporation $ ... Some information contained herein has been obtained from

The view from the buy-sideMay 22, 2015

Page 2: The view from the buy-side - mlpassociation.org · 2014. MLP Distributions. Energy Earnings. ... Teekay Corporation $ ... Some information contained herein has been obtained from

MLP market cap MLP funds market cap

Growth of MLP asset class vs. MLP funds

Source: Wells Fargo; Tortoise Capital Advisors as of 4/30/2015.

$54 $68 $107

$145

$88

$156

$224

$280 $331

$445

$505 $503

$2 $2 $3 $3 $2 $4 $11 $16 $26 $46 $65 $66

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD2015

$ in

bill

ions

2

Page 3: The view from the buy-side - mlpassociation.org · 2014. MLP Distributions. Energy Earnings. ... Teekay Corporation $ ... Some information contained herein has been obtained from

Midstream 53%

Services 2%Renewables 2%Refining 2%Water Handling 1%Frac Sand 1%Storage 1%Mining 1%Timber 1%Petrochemical 1%

Variable pay 8%

Upstream 10%

Shipping 8%

Coal 5%

Propane 4%

Source: Tortoise Capital Advisors, Bloomberg as of 4/30/2015.

Energy MLP market breakdown

Total # of energy MLPs: 120Total energy MLP market cap ($B): $503

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Page 4: The view from the buy-side - mlpassociation.org · 2014. MLP Distributions. Energy Earnings. ... Teekay Corporation $ ... Some information contained herein has been obtained from

Closed-end funds Exchange traded products Open-end funds

MLP fund net flows by quarter (2010-present)

Source: US Capital as of 4/30/2015.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep

-10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep

-11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep

-12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Apr

-15

Cap

ital i

nflo

ws

($ in

mill

ions

)

4

Page 5: The view from the buy-side - mlpassociation.org · 2014. MLP Distributions. Energy Earnings. ... Teekay Corporation $ ... Some information contained herein has been obtained from

Closed-end funds Exchange traded products Open-end funds

MLP fund net flows by month

Source: US Capital. Data from 11/30/2014 - 4/30/2015.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15

Cap

ital i

nflo

ws

($ in

mill

ions

)

5

Page 6: The view from the buy-side - mlpassociation.org · 2014. MLP Distributions. Energy Earnings. ... Teekay Corporation $ ... Some information contained herein has been obtained from

The performance data quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. MLPs – Yorkville MLP Universe Index. Energy – Energy Select Sector Index. Exploration & Production –Oil &

Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index. Data from 6/20/14-5/15/15. Source: Yorkville, Bloomberg.

Energy Equities Performance Since Crude Oil Peak

MLPs

-4.2%

S&P Energy

-18.5%

S&P Exploration & Production

-38.1%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15

MLPs S&P Energy S&P Exploration & Production

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Page 7: The view from the buy-side - mlpassociation.org · 2014. MLP Distributions. Energy Earnings. ... Teekay Corporation $ ... Some information contained herein has been obtained from

The performance data quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Data from 1/1/2000-12/31/2014.

Based on the distributions of the Alerian MLP Index and earnings of the Select Sector Energy Index. Source: Yorkville, Bloomberg.

MLP Distributions vs. Energy Co. Earnings MLPs Deliver Stable Growth

$25

$35

$45

$55

$65

$75

$85

$95

$14

$16

$18

$20

$22

$24

$26

$28

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

MLP Distributions Energy Earnings WTI ($/bbl)

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Page 8: The view from the buy-side - mlpassociation.org · 2014. MLP Distributions. Energy Earnings. ... Teekay Corporation $ ... Some information contained herein has been obtained from

The performance data quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results. Source: Yorkville. Based on Yorkville MLP Universe Indexes. 1Q15 versus 1Q14.

. Source: Yorkville, Bloomberg.

Growth and Stability Scores by MLP Sector

19%

15% 13%

12%

8% 8% 7%

11%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

(10.0)

(8.0)

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

GeneralPartners

Crude OilPipelines

RefinedProduct

Pipelines

EnergyServices

Gathering &Processing

Downstream MarineTransportation

Natural GasPipelines

NaturalResources

Exploration &Production

Gro

wth

Sco

re

Sta

bilit

y S

core

Stability Score Growth Score-38%

-48%

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Page 9: The view from the buy-side - mlpassociation.org · 2014. MLP Distributions. Energy Earnings. ... Teekay Corporation $ ... Some information contained herein has been obtained from

C-Corp Roll-Ups of Affiliated MLPs

Emerging Trend?

Why is it happening?

Tax Implications

Implications for Investors

Other likely candidates?

Circle of Life?

KMP/KMR

KMI

WPZ

WMB

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Page 10: The view from the buy-side - mlpassociation.org · 2014. MLP Distributions. Energy Earnings. ... Teekay Corporation $ ... Some information contained herein has been obtained from

FOR USE WITH INTENDED AUDIENCE ONLY – NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION.

Evolution of General Partners in AMZ Index At their peak in December 2007, GPs represented 20% of the constituents and 11.8% of the weight of the AMZ Index.

Many GPs were absorbed by underlying MLPs between 2010 and 2012.

Alerian removed GPs from the index as of the June 2013 rebalancing.

Source: Alerian Capital Management, May 2015.

For illustrative purposes only.

6 10 7 6 4 3 2 0 0 0

3 3 3

2 5

7

12 12 14

4.5%

11.8%

8.7%

7.0%

5.3%

4.9%

5.5%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

No. of GPs in AMZ Index GPs Not In AMZ GP Weight in AMZ Index

GP Weight in AMZ Index

Num

ber o

f GPs

Year

Aggregate G

P Weight

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Page 11: The view from the buy-side - mlpassociation.org · 2014. MLP Distributions. Energy Earnings. ... Teekay Corporation $ ... Some information contained herein has been obtained from

FOR USE WITH INTENDED AUDIENCE ONLY – NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION.

MLP General Partner Investment Universe GPs are not included in the Alerian MLP Index (weighting 0%).1

GPs comprise 14.4% of the S&P MLP Index.2

1 FactSet as of May 19, 2015. 2 Bloomberg, May 19, 2015.

Most GPs are structured as C-Corps, not LPs

MLP GPs –7 Market Cap ($MM)1

ETE – Energy Transfer Equity, L.P. $37,054

WGP – Western Gas Equity Partners LP $13,931

EQGP - EQT GP Holdings LP $8,842

AHGP - Alliance Holdings GP, L.P. $2,985

NSH - NuStar GP Holdings, LLC $1,669

CEQP - Crestwood Equity Partners LP $966

ATLS - Atlas Energy Group LLC $183

Total Market Cap $65,629

Midstream Corporations – 7 Market Cap ($MM)1

KMI – Kinder Morgan Inc. Class P $92,282

ENB – Enbridge, Inc. $43,668

TRP – TransCanada Corporation $31,898

SE – Spectra Energy Corp $24,389

PPL – PPL Corporation $22,903

LNG – Cheniere Energy, Inc. $18,245

SEMG – SemGroup Corporation Class A $3,621

Total Market Cap $237,006

The figures presented are unaudited, as of the date shown and are subject to change. Salient is under no obligation to update recipients.

C-Corp GPs (Pure Play) – 7 Market Cap ($MM)1

WMB – The Williams Companies, Inc. $40,215

PAGP – Plains GP Holdings LP Class A $17,987

OKE – ONEOK, Inc. $9,572

ENLC – EnLink Midstream, LLC $9,538

TRGP – Targa Resources Corp. $5,645

TEGP – Tallgrass Energy GP LP Class A $5,058

TK – Teekay Corporation $3,468

Total Market Cap $91,483

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Page 12: The view from the buy-side - mlpassociation.org · 2014. MLP Distributions. Energy Earnings. ... Teekay Corporation $ ... Some information contained herein has been obtained from

FOR USE WITH INTENDED AUDIENCE ONLY – NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION.

Disclosures The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of Salient’s investment professionals and are based on their broad investment knowledge, experience, research and analysis. However, market conditions, strategic approaches, return projections and other key factors upon which the views presented in these materials are based remain subject to fluctuation and change. Consequently, it must be noted that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance.

This presentation contains “forward-looking statements.” Forward-looking statements can be identified by the words “may,” “will,” “intend,” “expect,” “estimate,” “continue,” “plan,” “anticipate,” “could,” “should” and similar terms and the negative of such terms. By their nature, all forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results could differ materially from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements. Several factors that could materially affect actual results are the performance of the portfolio securities, the conditions in the U.S. and international financial markets, and other markets and factors. Actual results could differ materially from those projected or assumed in our forward-looking statements.

This presentation does not constitute an offering of any security, product, service or fund. No investment strategy can guarantee performance results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal invested.

This presentation is provided without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient and does not contain investment recommendations. This publication is also designed to provide general information about economics, asset classes and strategies. All sector and asset allocation recommendations must be considered in the context of an individual investor’s goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Not all asset classes and strategies will be suitable for all investors.

MLPs are subject to regulatory and tax risks, including but not limited to changes in current tax law which could result in MLPs being treated as corporations for U.S. federal income tax purposes or the eliminations or reduction of MLPs tax deductions.

MLP returns have the potential to be highly volatile, an MLP is also subject to liquidity risk, potential conflicts of interest as a result of the MLP ownership structure and the risks of the specific sector in which the MLP is concentrated.

Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources and has not been independently verified by Salient. Salient makes no representations as to the accuracy or the completeness of any of the information herein. The information in this material is only as current as the date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Any statements of opinion constitute only current opinions of Salient, which are subject to change and which Salient does not undertake to update. Some information in this presentation is based on unaudited information and is subject to change.

Investment Advisory services are offered through Salient Capital Advisors, LLC, a Securities and Exchange Commission registered investment advisor. Registration as an investment advisor does not imply any level of skill or training. Salient is the trade name for Salient Partners, L.P., which together with its subsidiaries provides asset management and advisory services. Salient Partners, L.P. is the parent company to Salient Capital Advisors, LLC. Salient Partners, L.P., and affiliates do not provide tax or legal advice. Please contact your legal and or tax professional to determine how the information contained in this publication may apply to your situation.

© 2015 Salient. All Rights Reserved.

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