the view from below | stephanie llamas
TRANSCRIPT
THE VIEW FROM BELOW
CASUAL CONNECT EU 2016
MOBILE GAMES FOR THE NEXT GENERATIONSTEPHANIE LLAMAS, DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH
@STEPHINANERS @_SUPERDATA #CASUALCONNECT
| Playable media & games market research
2THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
STEPHANIE LLAMAS Director, Research and Insights @Stephinaners
| Playable media & games market research
3THE VIEW FROM BELOW | © 2015 SuperData Research | www.superdataresearch.com
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LANDSCAPE
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Worldwide mobile games revenue, 2015E
$24.1B Total worldwide market for mobile games, 2015E North America shows signs of stagnation but the U.S. still goes strong with almost a fifth of the global games market and $4.7B in revenue.
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North America
$4.7 billion
Latin America
$1.8 billion
Asia
$13.2 billion
Europe
$3.7 billion
Rest of world
$0.7 billion
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Kids mobile game market share of WW mobile game market, 2015E
7.8%
2015E
$1.9B WW kids mobile game revenue
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7.8% 9.3%
Kids mobile game market share of WW mobile game market, 2015E
Kids mobile game market share of US mobile game market, 2015E
2015E
$417M US kids mobile game revenue
2015E
$1.9B WW kids mobile game revenue
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100
125
150
175
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
Mobile cost per install and average revenue per user, indexed
*Index compares a metric to a particular base month, specifically January 2013, represented by the value 100.
2014 2015
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0-56-910-13
PARENTS’ CHOICE
PARENT/CHILD CONSENSUS
WHATEVER IS COOL
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Outlets for creativity
Simple gameplay
Complex gameplay
Social aspects
Appealing graphics
Iconic characters/mascots
Cartoonish features
Branding
Educational gameplay
Game quality preference
Simulation
Action
Arcade
Strategy
Puzzle
Sports
Racing
Other
Word
Adventure
Board
Mobile gaming preferences of US kids 8-11 years old
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US TRENDS
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PREMIUM
Monetization types for mobile games
• Upfront game purchase • Premium+IAP
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PREMIUM FREE-TO-PLAY
Monetization types for mobile games
• In-app purchases • Subscriptions • Advertising
• Upfront game purchase • Premium+IAP
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0
40
80
120
160
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
$46M$49M$44M$42M
$107M$104M$100M$96M 42%
27%
31%
55% 30%
14%
US premium upfront and IAP revenue share by age, 2015E
US premium mobile games revenue from kids
0-5
6-9
10-13
Upfront vs In-app purchases
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CONS • Limited revenue stream • Short lifespan (unless you’re
Minecraft) • Doesn’t fund ongoing
development and support
PROS • Largely COPPA-friendly • Transparent • Popular with parents
Premium kids mobile games
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0
100
200
300
400
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
$344M$317M
$273M$245M
75%
19%
6%
US free-to-play revenue share by age, 2015E
US free-to-play mobile games revenue from kids
0-5
6-910-13
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CONTENT • Easier to follow regulations • Transparent • Hard to make money • Needs constant content
updates
CONSUMABLE • Highest potential for spending • Ethical gray area • Highly regulated • Competing with big studio
games
Free-to-play kids mobile gamesCONSUMABLE vs. CONTENT IAP
75%
19%
6%
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22%
39%
39%US free-to-play IAP and subscription
revenue share by age, 2015E
US free-to-play mobile games revenue from kids
0-5
6-910-13
0
100
200
300
400
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
$44M$37M
$31M$22M
$300M$280M
$242M$223M
free-to-play vs subscription purchases
0-5
6-9
10-13
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Top 10 growing kids mobile games in the iOS app store*
*Retrieved 9/11/2015
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Top 10 growing kids mobile games in the iOS app store*
*Retrieved 9/11/2015
free-to-play IAP
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Top 10 growing kids mobile games in the iOS app store*
*Retrieved 9/11/2015
free-to-play IAP vs premium (no IAP)
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Top 10 growing kids mobile games in the iOS app store*
*Retrieved 9/11/2015
free-to-play IAP vs premium (no IAP) vs subscription
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Free-to-play kids mobile gamesSUBSCRIPTIONS
CONS • Hard to find on Google Play • Less pricing flexibility • Technical limitations
PROS • Growing in popularity • Transparent • Predictable and recurring
revenue
Confirm Your In-App PurchaseDo you want to subscribe to
this super awesome kids game for $2.99 a month?
Cancel Buy
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OUTLOOK
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5%
10%
15%
20%
1
1.55
2.1
2.65
3.2
2015E 2016E 2017E
$2.2B$2.1B
$1.9B
1000000000
1550000000
2100000000
2650000000
3200000000
2015E 2016E 2017E
$505M$478M
$417M
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fore
cast
annu
al gr
owth
rate
Worldwide vs. U.S.Kids mobile game revenue
0
75
150
225
300
2015E 2016E 2017E
$46M$49M$44M
$107M$104M$100M
$44M$37M$31M $37M$35M$31M
$263M$244M
$211M
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General F2P IAP vs. Kids F2P IAP vs. Subscriptions vs. Premium upfront vs. Premium IAPUS mobile game revenue from kids
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US mobile game revenue from kids — growth rate
2015E 2016E 2017E
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
General F2P IAP vs. Kids F2P IAP vs. Subscriptions vs. Premium upfront vs. Premium IAP
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April
0 9000000000 18000000000
VR gaming market 2015-2020E
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April
0 9000000000 18000000000
VR gaming market 2015-2020E
$3.2B
$16.2B
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Young audiences are cultivated for
agency Entertainment is transitioning from passive to active -
and so should monetization
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THANK YOU!
Director, Research & Insights Stephanie Llamas [email protected]
www.superdataresearch.com @_SuperData @Stephinaners @CasualConnect