The Use of Statistical Data in Treasury Publications

Economic Analysis Directorate (FS Treasury)

PRESENTATION LAYOUT

» Background on the Directorate» Socio-economic review & outlook (SERO)» Medium Term Budget Policy Statement

(MTBPS)» Provincial Economic Review & Outlook

(PERO)» Quarterly Labour Market Review (QLMR)» Other outputs» Data challenges

Background on the Directorate

• The Directorate Economic Analysis is one of the four directorates within the chief directorate of Sustainable Resource Management;

• The primary purpose of the directorate is to provide the Provincial Government with cutting-edge socio-economic research;

• The analysis emanating from the research output is intended to inform and guide fiscal policy development and the allocation of scarce public resources.

1. Socio-Economic Review & Outlook

• Purpose:– Deeper understanding of the socio-economic state of the province and the

associated challenges;– Ascertain the extent to which the lives of ordinary people in the Free State

have changed since the decentralization of fiscal policy; – Planning and Monitoring & Evaluation tool;– Influence the allocation of scarce resources.

• Structure of the publication– Chapter 1: Demographics– Chapter 2: Poverty, Quality of Life & Access to basic services (&

infrastructure)– Chapter 3: Education– Chapter 4: Health– Chapter 5: Labour– Chapter 6:Economy

• Main sources of data– Stats SA (Census, Mid-year population estimates, Income & expenditure

survey, GDP, QLFS, etc)– Global Insight (ReX)

Example of IndicatorsPercentage of households living in informal settlements Percentage of households using bucket toilets or which have no toilet facility

Discouraged work-seekers by provincePercentage of households with access to piped water in a dwelling

2. MEDIUM TERM BUDGET POLICY STAMENT (MTBPS)

• Purpose– It summarizes government’s perspective on the broad economic

outlook for the coming three years, provides information on budget allocations and priorities over the same period, and indicates how the intended expenditure will be financed

– The MTBPS can be regarded as the ‘making public’ of the MTEF. As a pre-budget release, it contributes in general terms to fiscal transparency, and helps ensure that the budget legislatures votes on is without surprises or shocks.

– Thus, the MTBPS is above all an opportunity for non-executive stakeholders in public budgeting to engage with the broader trends of the budget and to ask broader questions concerning the extent to which budgeting is aligned with the policies of government and is achieving the objectives of those policies.

• Sources of data– Various source– Stats SA (GDP & QLFS for chapter on Economic performance &

outlook)

Example of Indicators

Province2011 Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 qrt -to-qrt change

qrt -to-qrt percentage

change

yr-on-yr percentage

change

(000) %

Western Cape 1805 1847 1815 -32 -1.7 0.6

Eastern Cape 1309 1279 1298 19 1.5 -0.8

Northern Cape 264 286 281 -5 -1.7 6.4

Free State 772 737 728 -9 -1.2 -5.7

KwaZulu Natal 2500 2519 2520 1 0.0 0.8

North West 691 704 709 5 0.7 -2.6

Gauteng 3965 4140 4125 -15 -0.4 4

Mpumalanga 884 913 953 40 4.4 7.8

Limpopo 936 996 1018 22 2.2 8.8

GDP Growth

Employment by province

3. PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK (PERO)

• Purpose:– The Provincial Economic Review and Outlook (PERO) provides an in-

depth analysis of the provincial economy and places specific emphasis on sectoral performance and labour market issues.

• Structure of the publication– Chapter 1: Global macroeconomic perspective– Chapter 2: Free State economic performance and outlook– Chapter 3: Free State labour market – Chapter 4: Free State municipal economies in perspective

• Main source of data:– Stats SA (GDP, QLFS, etc)– Global Insight (ReX)

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

650

700

750

800

850

900

Employment

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

050

100150200250300350400

Unemployment

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Unemployment rate Linear (Unemployment rate)Labour Absorption rate Linear (Labour Absorption rate) 20

00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

020406080

100120140160180

Number of discouraged workersUnemployment and Absorption rates

Source: Stats SA, LFS, Sept 2009; QLFS, Sept 2010, Sept 2012

Example of Indicators

4. FREE STATE QUARTERLY LABOUR MARKET REVIEW

(QLMR)• Purpose:

– Give a detailed update of the labour market trends in the Free State Province on a quarterly basis.

– By analyzing the labour market intensively, decision-makers can develop policies aimed at reducing unemployment, support vulnerable workers, promote youth development, eliminate wastage and develop responsive education and training systems

• Source of date:– Stats SA (QLFS)

LP KZ WC GP RSA NW NC MP EC FS

Q2:2012 20.2 19.8 23.2 25.4 24.9 26.2 29.9 28.9 28.6 32.9

Q1:2013 20.3 21.1 23.3 25.2 25.2 26.5 29.6 29.4 30.2 31.6

Q2:2013 18.1 22.7 24 25 25.6 27.1 29 29.4 30.8 33.1

2.57.5

12.517.522.527.532.5

%

Not economically active Student Home-maker Illness/disability Too old/young to work Discouraged work seekers

Other

Apr-Jun 2012 799.360980356763 359.737786892454 95.0488506935285 138.924154477293 82.052729233363 82.0973921919977 41.5000668681275

Apr-Jun 2013 760.72728875177 357.325587432242 70.6498931373185 124.650546780816 84.570820850874 66.5569680654013 56.9734724851182

50150250350450550650750850

Unemployment by province

Characteristics of the not economically active

Example of Indicators

OTHER OUTPUTS

• FFC’s Equitable Share Formula inputs• Section 3 of Budget Statement 1• Socio-economic Database • Research Papers• MEC Soci0-economic updates

DATA CHALLENGES

• Provincial GDP– Frequency – Time lag

• Local Municipal level data

THE END!