the use of networks in the study of climate-related vulnerabilities
DESCRIPTION
Research interests: macroecology, landscape pathology and network epidemiology. Epidemiological modelling in small-size directed networks, landscape pathology of fire blight in Switzerland, biogeographic patterns in the living collections of the world's botanic gardensTRANSCRIPT
The use of networks in the study of climate-related
vulnerabilitiesMarco Pautasso,
Division of Biology, Imperial College London,
Silwood Park
PIK Potsdam, 2 August 2010
DiseaseBiodiversity x
Review
Researchy Empirical
Theoreticalz
(a), (b) & (c) from: Pautasso & Gaston (2006) Global Ecology & Biogeography;(d) from: Pautasso & Gaston (2005) Ecology Letters
Research interests - 1. Macroecology
Survey year
Log 10
plot
are
a (k
m2 )
Log 1
0as
sem
blag
e ab
unda
nce
(indi
vidu
als)(c)
Log10 plot area (km2)
Research interests - 2. Landscape pathology
Picture: D. Rizzo, UC Davis Pautasso et al. (2010) Biological Reviews
NATURAL
TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL
food webs
airport networks
cell metabolism
neural networks
railway networks
ant nests
WWWInternet
electrical power grids
software mapscomputing
gridsE-mail
patterns
innovation flows
telephone calls
co-authorship nets
family networks
committees
sexual partnerships DISEASE
SPREAD
Food web of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin, US
Internet structure
Network pictures from: Newman (2003) SIAM Review
HIV spread
network
Research interests - 3. Network epidemiology
urban road networks
Modified from: Jeger et al. (2007) New Phytologist
Current research – 1. epidemic modellingin small-size directed networks
N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means
at p < 0.05
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) Journal of Theoretical Biology
Current research -2. fire blight epidemic development in Switzerland
From: Eidgenössisches Volkswirtschaftsdepartement, Swiss Confederation
2003 2007
199919952003-07
b from: http://www.worldmapper.org/
a, c & d: from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica
(c)
(d)
(a)(c)
log 1
0sp
pri
chne
ss (n
)
(b) Size of countries reflects n of botanic gardens
Current research – 3. biogeography of the living collections of the world’s botanical gardens
(d)
(yr)
Acknowledgements
Ottmar Holdenrieder,
ETHZ, CH
Mike Jeger, Imperial College,
Silwood
Mike Shaw, Univ. of Reading
Kevin Gaston, Univ. of
Sheffield
Mathieu Moslonka-Lefebvre,
Agro-Paris Tech, France
Joan Webber, Forest Research
Peter Weisberg, Univ. of Nevada,
Reno, USA
Mike McKinney, Univ. of Tennessee, USA
Ingrid Parmentier, Univ. of Brussels,
Belgium
US counties with (•) or without (o) Universities and/or Botanical Gardens
from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology
• N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001
o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001
European trade flows in ornamental plants (2004)
Dehnen-Schmutz et al. (2010) Scientia Horticulturae
step 1
step 2
step 3
step n
…
Simple model of infection spread (e.g. P. ramorum) in a network
pt probability of infection transmission
pp probability of infection persistence
… 100node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (in review) Phytopathology
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
probability of transmission
prob
abili
ty o
f per
sist
ence
localrandomsmall-worldscale-free (two-way)scale-free (uncorrelated)scale-free (one way)
Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks with positive correlation between in- and out-degree
modified from: Pautasso & Jeger (2008) Ecological Complexity
Epidemic does not develop Epidemic develops
from: Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany
Living collections of the world’s botanic gardens (2)
ReferencesDehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultural industry: some implications for plant health. Scientia Horticulturae 125: 1-15Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richness patterns of the living collections of the world's botanic gardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105: 689-696Harwood TD, Xu XM, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Shaw M (2009) Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and P. kernoviae in the UK. Ecological Modelling 220: 3353-3361 MacLeod A, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Haines-Young R (2010) Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests and challenges for future plant health. Food Security 2: 49-70 Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O & Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries and continents. Phytopathology 101: 392-403Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189Pautasso M, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Pietravalle S, Salama N, Jeger MJ, Lange E & Hehl-Lange S (2010) Plant health and global change – some implications for landscape management. Biological Reviews 85: 729-755Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor of epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432 Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-size directed trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309Xu XM, Harwood TD, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales. Ecography 32: 504-516