The Use of Global Datasets for Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: the GRAVITY project

Pascal Peduzzi, United Nation Environment Programme Pascal.Peduzzi@grid.unep.ch

Hy DaoDamien RochetteChristian Herold

Context

• The UNDP/ERD World Vulnerability Report

• Expert Meeting on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Indexing, Sept. 2000

• UNDP/ERD - UNEP/GRID contract, 4 staffs paid at GRID-Geneva

• Feasibility study : Feb.-Jun. 2001

• Consolidation : Jul.-Dec. 2001

Risk

Mitigation

?

Formula

Riski = Hazardi x Population x Vulnerabilityi

Realized Risk (CRED)

Hazard x population

Physical exposure

= Vulnerability

Risk tot = Riskvolc + Riskflood + Riskcycl. + … + Riskn

Geophysical and statistical datasetsType ofdisaster

From available data

Data source URL Resolution/scale Spatial unit Intensity Probability

Earthquakes Global SismicHazardAssessmentProgram

http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/

1/10 degree Grid cell Peak GroundAcceleration

PGA hazard

Wind storms Carbon DioxideInformationAnalysisCenter

http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ 5 degrees Grid cell Wind speed Annual probability

Floods Dartmouth FloodObservatory

http://www.dartmouth.edu/artsci/geog/floods/index.html

-Large flood eventswatersheds: based onsatellite image and DFOnews sources.

-Flood limits observed bysatellite: 250m-1km.

Polygons Large floodevents: 1-3 scale,based ondamages,fatalities,recurrenceinterval and floodextend.

Frequency

1980 – 2000

All CRED http://www.cred.be/emdat/ Records on 21 years Countries Frequency

1980 – 2000

Eruptions NationalGeophysicalDataCenter

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/volcano.shtml

Points (buffered to

produce polygons)

VolcanicExplosivity Index

Frequency

VEI 2-3: 1950 –2000

VEI 4-7: 1500 –2000

Tsunamis NationalGeophysical DataCenter

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/tsu.shtml

Points Maximum runup Frequency

1900 – 2000

1 9 0 0 1 9 2 0 1 9 4 0 1 9 6 0 1 9 8 0 2 0 0 0

02

00

60

0

y e a r

A l l d i s a s t e r s

Access to information in time

Exploration of the CREDDisaster

typesDeaths % of

totalGEO regions Deaths % of total

Drought 563’701 46.54 % Africa 581’391 48.00 %

Wind storm 251’384 20.76 % Asia + Pacific 447’906 36.98 %

Flood 170’010 14.04 % Latin America +Caribbean

105’599 8.72 %

Earthquake 158’551 13.09 % Europe 63’274 5.22 %

Volcano 25’050 2.07 % North America 8’870 0.73 %

Extremetemp

19’249 1.59 % West Asia 4’047 0.33 %

Slide 18’200 1.50 % Not referenced 72 0.01 %

Wave/surge 3’968 0.32 % Total 1’211’159 100%

Wild fire 1’046 0.06 %

Insectinfestation

0 0.00 %

Total 1’211’159 100%

For 1980-2000

Type ofHazards

UNDP/ERD’s requestif possible

CRED possible? >5% >20 k /

year ?

GeophysicalData available ?

Possible ?

incorporated in thisstudy ?Yes / No

Drought Yes Yes Complex No

Earthquakes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Epidemics No --- --- No

Extrem.temperature

Yes Not significant --- No

Flood Yes Yes Yes Yes

Forest fires Yes Not significant --- No

Landslides Yes Not significant No No

Locust No --- --- No

Volcanoes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Wave/surge Yes No (withexceptions)

lack of detaileddata

No

Wind storms Yes Yes Yes Yes

Selection criterion

Need special consideration for:Tsunamis: Papua New Guinea (67.8%), Ecuador (14.3%)Landslides: China (6%), India (3,46%), Indonesia (13,88%), Peru (33%), Colombia (4,2%), Philippines (4.59%)and Ecuador (10.2%).

Need to take into account droughtDrought (food insecurity) = 46.54%

The choice of indicators

Countries Area Pop. Killed % pop.killed

% ofaffectable pop. killed

Killedper area

Killed/areaaffectable

A 16 15 3 20 % 50 % 0.1875 0.5

B 8 8 1 12.5 % 25 % 0.125 0.33

C 2 2 1 50 % 100 % 0.5 1

D 2 2 1 50 % 50 % 0.5 0.5

Using the database on population CIESIN/UNEP

ISO_3_CODE DIS_TYPE KILLED INJUREDHOME AFFECT TOT_AFF NB_E AV_K_PM_PE PC_I_PE TOT_K_PMTOT_K_PCIRN Earthquake 41230 141017 126570 213238 480825 36 1145.2778 0.0000939436 7 0.0007416325SUN Earthquake 25575 12885 592524 1117000 1722409 33 825.0000TUR Earthquake 19950 56056 745065 1254500 2055621 19 1173.5294 0.0000510126 3 0.0003121437IND Earthquake 11800 22765 105700 20575800 20704265 14 842.8571 0.0000028491 0 0.0000132863AFG Earthquake 9333 7837 121669 357595 487101 19 491.2105 0.0000492530 5 0.0004706744MEX Earthquake 8973 31652 12693 217735 262080 21 448.6500 0.0000321442 1 0.0001187260JPN Earthquake 6017 39921 300312 3653852 3994085 33 200.5667 0.0000187284 0 0.0000480782ECU Earthquake 4306 436 121600 167200 289236 10 430.6000 0.0000048625 5 0.0004523425IDN Earthquake 4055 11325 245530 749774 1006629 39 103.9744 0.0000020668 0 0.0000220199COL Earthquake 3035 11012 485212 809164 1305388 12 252.9167 0.0000284632 1 0.0000843182DZA Earthquake 2838 9134 461400 528898 999432 10 283.8000 0.0000680786 1 0.0001475849YMN Earthquake 2800 1500 400000 401500 1 2800.0000ITA Earthquake 2666 9478 53800 561000 624278 18 148.1111 0.0000139874 0 0.0000472322TWN Earthquake 2277 9033 100000 0 109033 3 759.0000CHN Earthquake 2077 45383 1395575 6123943 7564901 50 46.1556 0.0000009351 0 0.0000018114SLV Earthquake 2020 20694 252500 530000 803194 3 673.3333 0.0021499299 4 0.0004038793RUS Earthquake 2001 1020 26440 6000 33460 5 500.2500 0.0000013772 0 0.0000135114PHL Earthquake 1773 3919 169291 1794214 1967424 11 161.1818 0.0000107792 0 0.0000291276NPL Earthquake 809 6616 30000 540000 576616 2 404.5000 0.0002216148 0 0.0000466527MMR Earthquake 741 136 0 0 136 3 247.0000 0.0000031719 0 0.0000187688PAK Earthquake 674 4071 550 4621 14 51.8462 0.0000047655 0 0.0000062340EGY Earthquake 571 9998 25000 0 34998 3 190.3333 0.0000566968 0 0.0000097083PNG Earthquake 508 200 19000 23000 42200 14 39.0769 0.0000162215 2 0.0001507525GRC Earthquake 411 2919 84300 236255 323474 21 22.8333 0.0000255104 0 0.0000405437GEO Earthquake 278 1700 160000 105000 266700 3 92.6667 0.0001560657 1 0.0000510427

ISO_3_CODE DIS_TYPE KILLED INJUREDHOME AFFECT TOT_AFF NB_E AV_K_PM_PE PC_I_PE TOT_K_PMTOT_K_PCCOL Volcano 21810 5006 259600 264606 4 5452.5000 0.0000790481 7 0.0006888640CMR Volcano 1771 0 510 7134 7644 3 590.3333 0.0000000000 2 0.0001729011PHL Volcano 719 205 183922 942284 1126411 8 102.7143 0.0000006586 0 0.0000114912IDN Volcano 422 215 86770 466866 553851 25 16.8800 0.0000002852 0 0.0000024831MEX Volcano 120 500 15000 143108 158608 7 20.0000 0.0000023546 0 0.0000016249JPN Volcano 82 20 1100 98530 99650 10 9.1111 0.0000000538 0 0.0000006614USA Volcano 60 2500 2500 1 60.0000 0 0.0000002604MSR Volcano 32 13000 13000 3 10.6667 29 0.0029090909GTM Volcano 17 35 0 16733 16768 9 1.8889 0.0000021538 0 0.0000018939PNG Volcano 9 31 46000 132800 178831 5 1.8000 0.0000035339 0 0.0000020984CHL Volcano 6 0 3200 72250 75450 7 0.8571 0.0000000000 0 0.0000004357NIC Volcano 2 75 10000 318195 328270 4 0.5000 0.0000061742 0 0.0000004939CPV Volcano 0 6 5000 1300 6306 1 0.0000 0.0000157675 0 0.0000000000ISL Volcano 0 0 3 0.0000 0.0000000000 0 0.0000000000ECU Volcano 0 0 2200 22000 24200 1 0.0000 0.0000000000 0 0.0000000000SUN Volcano 0 0 7 0.0000COM Volcano 0 200 200 1 0.0000 0 0.0000000000NZL Volcano 0 70 70 1 0.0000 0 0.0000000000ITA Volcano 0 7000 7000 3 0.0000 0 0.0000000000TTO Volcano 0 200 200 1 0.0000 0 0.0000000000CRI Volcano 0 450 450 2 0.0000 0 0.0000000000PER Volcano 4000 4000 1

ISO_3_CODE DIS_TYPE KILLED INJUREDHOME AFFECT TOT_AFF NB_E AV_K_PM_PE PC_I_PE TOT_K_PMTOT_K_PCBGD Wind storm 156944 221012 4508000 36528008 41257020 74 2120.8649 0.0000411329 14 0.0014232075IND Wind storm 25081 10698 1384500 44771046 46166244 61 411.1639 0.0000009753 0 0.0000284199PHL Wind storm 18723 18094 9456303 70159007 79633404 127 148.5952 0.0000042068 3 0.0003199172VNM Wind storm 9949 65739 1669589 27711611 29446939 51 195.0784 0.0000249189 1 0.0001448016CHN Wind storm 9745 88173 12747015 126459575 139294763 127 77.9600 0.0000010796 0 0.0000083781HND Wind storm 6025 12034 8200 2209153 2229387 6 1004.1667 0.0006528394 10 0.0010137941USA Wind storm 4718 4171 339160 10494558 10837861 278 17.7368 0.0000003178 0 0.0000189350NIC Wind storm 2847 506 230000 1356234 1586740 7 406.7143 0.0000309087 6 0.0006183226HTI Wind storm 1706 29 287115 2712000 2999144 6 341.2000 0.0000036467 2 0.0002431877MEX Wind storm 1696 280 198700 1289615 1488595 34 49.8824 0.0000005968 0 0.0000207064MDG Wind storm 1329 1058 645000 2721999 3368057 16 88.6000 0.0000121237 1 0.0001099281KOR Wind storm 1240 206 4137 200771 205114 19 65.2632 0.0000005039 0 0.0000298896PAK Wind storm 1106 1114 9597 657000 667711 12 92.1667 0.0000018450 0 0.0000085575JPN Wind storm 816 3077 176840 1294600 1474517 38 22.6667 0.0000010814 0 0.0000067657xEur Wind storm 738 74 74 11 67.0909THA Wind storm 675 20 92587 3018598 3111205 15 45.0000 0.0000001776 0 0.0000123573TWN Wind storm 476 263 2000 22200 24463 18 28.0000MOZ Wind storm 464 204 1550050 2354350 3904604 7 66.2857 0.0000030380 0 0.0000305431SUN Wind storm 406 0 10000 10000 7 58.0000DOM Wind storm 344 30 2500 4532538 4535068 8 43.0000 0.0000038347 0 0.0000428003MYS Wind storm 270 0 3000 1650 4650 2 135.0000 0.0000000000 0 0.0000131391GTM Wind storm 263 105700 105700 1 263.0000 0 0.0000243494SLV Wind storm 257 0 2000 84100 86100 4 64.2500 0.0000000000 0 0.0000426949GBR Wind storm 246 9 0 3990300 3990309 27 11.7143 0.0000000387 0 0.0000042759FRA Wind storm 237 58 200 4302890 4303148 32 7.9000 0.0000001418 0 0.0000041178IRN Wind storm 234 85 5500 3700 9200 6 39.0000 0.0000006696 0 0.0000054748

ISO_3_CODE DIS_TYPE KILLED INJUREDHOME AFFECT TOT_AFF NB_E NB_E_CUM AV_K_PM_PE K_PM_PECUM PC_I_PEVEN Flood 30172 3119 147988 504027 655134 14 544 2155.1429 9689.5107 0.0000165038IND Flood 29704 183 7417100 417960475 425377758 85 1553 353.6190 6142.4303 0.0000000160CHN Flood 27336 373134 30737900 1135259056 1155300090 101 1654 270.6535 5510.4857 0.0000075418BGD Flood 11968 2020 33085000 236482311 269569331 44 1234 278.3256 5788.8113 0.0000020158AFG Flood 8831 5676 70050 312455 388181 16 647 551.9375 7534.3678 0.0000789410NPL Flood 5597 414 18650 1921525 1940589 22 837 254.4091 5239.8322 0.0000025607PAK Flood 4555 115 10123472 15923821 26047408 21 773 216.9048 4738.9231 0.0000001979VNM Flood 3407 1849 278304 20538568 20818721 24 884 148.1304 3805.8517 0.0000023655IRN Flood 3255 164 183750 1311526 1489440 41 1190 83.4615 2239.6315 0.0000002774MEX Flood 2545 460 269734 1310500 1580694 23 860 110.6522 2811.7142 0.0000009451IDN Flood 2501 249526 202400 2656192 3108118 56 1393 44.6607 1211.7970 0.0001101874SOM Flood 2465 0 290000 1234000 1524000 11 410 246.5000 4985.4231 0.0000000000BRA Flood 2345 2804 1029367 8252865 9285036 48 1282 48.8542 1493.1869 0.0000018034PER Flood 2282 2599 42300 2181550 2226449 24 908 95.0833 2701.0620 0.0000181468PHL Flood 1879 490 323636 7955081 8279207 38 1111 49.4474 1591.9676 0.0000008112SUN Flood 1875 0 2586 59000 61586 21 794 93.7500 2510.9787SDN Flood 1608 18500 1166700 4012706 5197906 12 455 134.0000 3657.7213 0.0001362301TJK Flood 1435 62 68608 286466 355136 7 282 205.0000 4522.0183 0.0000051258KOR Flood 1414 297 565681 790890 1356868 16 663 88.3750 2328.0065 0.0000008486THA Flood 1319 3273 151553 17009478 17164304 28 1037 47.1071 1348.9041 0.0000038972YEM Flood 1308 0 330000 45750 375750 18 714 72.6667 1768.6343 0.0000000000ZAF Flood 1218 37 10850 73300 84187 16 679 76.1250 1994.6343 0.0000001612MWI Flood 1190 0 131300 884326 1015626 11 421 119.0000 3272.9713 0.0000000000

Variablecode

Description Sources Comments

gdp Gross Domestic Product(constant 1995 millionsUS$)

UNEP (compiled fromWorld Bank)

1960-2000

pop Population (persons x1000)

UNEP (compiled) 1960-2000

lifex Life expectancy (year) UNEP (compiled fromWorld Bank)

1960-2000

litrate Literacy rate (%) UNEP (compiled fromWorld ResourcesInstitute)

1960-2000

surface Land area (km2) WHO + ArcWorld(ESRI)

217 countries

hdi Humand DevelopmentIndex

UNDP 1998

urban Urbanisation (%urbanpopulation)

UNEP (compiled fromWorld Bank, FAO)

1960-2000

corup Corruption indicator TransparencyInternational (TI)

CPI Score 2000

Socio-economic datasets

hazard hdi corup popd popdl gdpcap urban urbang3 popg3

typeH

uman

Dev

elop

men

tIn

dex

Cor

rupt

ion

inde

x

Popu

latio

nde

nsit

y

Loc

al p

opul

atio

nde

nsit

y

GD

P pe

r cap

ita

Urb

anis

atio

n

Urb

anis

atio

ngr

owth

Popu

latio

ngr

owth

Flood + +

Wind storm + + - +

Volcano - +

Ethq. low - + + - +

Ethq. high + - +

Identified factors

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

0102030405060708090100110120

Realised risk (ranked)

Es

tim

ate

d r

isk

(ra

nk

ed

)

Crossplot between estimated and realized risk for floods

r = 0.61

Several products

Exposure to flood

Thank you

Http://www.grid.unep.ch/preview