the use of classifications from the cost733 database to ... use of classifications from the cost733...
TRANSCRIPT
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The use of classifications from the COST733 database to detect effects
of the 11-year solar cycle on atmospheric circulation over Europe
Radan HUTH, Monika CAHYNOVÁInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague,
Czech Republic([email protected])
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• modes of low-frequency variability• Arctic Oscillation• teleconnectivity• blocking activity• cyclonic activity• circulation effects on surface climate• frequency of synoptic types
• Wolf numbers (R) (~numbers of sunspots)
• solar radio flux 10.7 cm (F10.7)• (the choice of variable has only a
minor effect on results)
mechanisms?
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Mechanisms of the effectsSunEarth
several potential mechanismsso far unclear, which of them are really acting and how much they contributea new COST Action on it
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Potential mechanisms
stratospheric ozone: change in UV radiation O3 concentration stratospheric temperature stratospheric circulationdownward propagation of the signal to the tropospherechange of currents in the global electric circuit atmospheric circulationchanges in concentrations of particles of cosmic origin condensation nucleicloudsdirect heating of ocean surface feedbacks with cloudiness atmospheric circulation
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Data & Methods
monthly mean valuesextended winter (XII – III)1961 – 2000 (1949-2003 for Hess&Brezowsky)main methodological concept: division of data according to the solar activity into three groups (low, medium, high)separate analysis in each solar activity class
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19991994198919841979197419691964195919541949
280
240
200
160
120
80
40
0
Solar activity classesa) division into halves
b) division into thirdsc) division 25:50:25
d) max / min defined subjectively regardless of the amplitude
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SYNOPTIC TYPES
after Hess&Brezowsky– grouped into 10 ‘major types’ and 6 ‘supertypes’– mean SLP anomaly mapsfrom COST733 database v2.0– for SLP– have 11 types or fewer– for domain D07 (central Europe)– SANDRA and SOM are identical only SANDRA
is retained– altogether 17 class’s– types are characterized by mean anomaly maps
(centroids) for 500 hPa heights
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METHODOLOGY
what’s calculated: – mean frequencies of types (supertypes)– for each solar activity classstatistical significance testing– is the frequency in the given solar activity
class different from the (long-term) mean frequency of the type?
– using block resampling
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westerly
Wz
WwWs
Wa
low medium highsolar 26,2 31,6 33,7
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northwesterly
NWz NWa
low medium highsolar 6,9 10,0 6,7
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northerly
Na
HNzHNa
Nz
low medium highsolar 17,9 13,0 11,0
HB
TRM
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northeasterly
NEz NEa
low medium highsolar 2,0 2,4 1,6
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easterly
HFa
HNFzHNFa
HFz
low medium highsolar 12,9 6,0 9,1
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southeasterly
SEz SEa
low medium highsolar 5,4 4,3 5,9
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southerly
Sa
TRWTB
Sz
low medium highsolar 6,9 6,5 5,8
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southwesterly
SWz SWa
low medium highsolar 6,4 7,8 6,8
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central European high
HM BM
low medium highsolar 13,1 16,1 16,5
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central European low
TM
low medium highsolar 1,4 1,1 2,5
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Relative frequency(1.0 = climatological mean)
TMNENWNSESWSEHMW
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
.8
.6
.4
E*W*N*S*CA
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
.7
.6
supertypes
major typesW / E types – less / more frequent in solar minimamoderate vs. high solar activity – little difference
N types – less frequent in solar maxima
NW + NE types – most frequent in moderate solar activity
A / C types – less / more frequent in moderate solar activity
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RESULTS, Hess&Brez
Most striking effect – for quarters stratification: low solar activity: W types less than twice
as frequent as E types (39.5% vs. 20.4%) moderate solar activity: W types almost
four times more frequent than E types (49.5% vs. 12.8%)
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COST733 class’s
ordered by the frequency ratio high / low solari.e. – (top) left: types most frequent under low solar
activity / least frequent under high solar activity– (bottom) right: types most frequent under high
solar activity / least frequent under low solar activity
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Example 1: GWT
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Example 2: JCT
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All classifications together: types signigicantly more frequent in minima /
less frequent in maximatypes with easterly flow prevail
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All classifications together: types significantly more frequent in maxima /
less frequent in minima
types with westerly flow prevail
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CONCLUSIONS
effects of solar activity on NH tropospheric circulation are significant, some are surprisingly strongin solar maxima: zonalization of flow over North Atlantic and
Europe