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Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021 January 8, 2020

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Page 1: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics

The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic OutlookFor 2020–2021

January 8, 2020

Page 2: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Current State of the Economy

Page 3: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Real GDP Growth

RSQE: November 2019

Page 4: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Vehicle Sales Steady-ish

RSQE: November 2019

Page 5: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Unemployment Rates: Likely Still Trending Down

RSQE: November 2019

Page 6: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

U.S. Forecast for 2020–2021

Page 7: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Market Interest Rates

RSQE: November 2019

Page 8: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Real GDP Growth

RSQE: November 2019

Page 9: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Consumer Price Inflation (CPI-U)

RSQE: November 2019

Page 10: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics

The Michigan Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

January 8, 2020

Page 11: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Current State of Michigan’s Economy

Page 12: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Civilian Unemployment Rate

RSQE: November 2019

Page 13: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Michigan Job Openings vs. Unemployed Persons

RSQE: November 2019

Page 14: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Michigan Economic Outlook

Page 15: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales, 1990–2021

RSQE: November 2019

Page 16: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

U.S. Light Vehicle SalesTotal vs. Detroit Three, 2018–2021

RSQE: November 2019

Page 17: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Annual Job Growth in Michigan, 1991–2021

RSQE: November 2019

Page 18: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Michigan’s Labor Market, 1991–2021

RSQE: November 2019

Page 19: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Washtenaw Economic Outlook

Page 20: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Yearly Job Change in Washtenaw County, 1991 to 2021

RSQE: March 2019

Page 21: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Unemployment Rate U.S. and Washtenaw, 1991 to 2021

RSQE: March 2019

Page 22: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Steady Growth in All Private Sector Office Jobs

RSQE: March 2019

Page 23: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021

Strong Rebound in Tech Related Office Jobs

RSQE: March 2019

Page 24: The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020 ...€¦ · Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics The U.S., Michigan and Washtenaw Economic Outlook For 2020–2021