the university community next generation innovation project gig.u blair levin executive director,...
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The University Community Next Generation Innovation Project
Gig.U
Blair LevinExecutive Director, Gig.U
Presentation TTI/Vanguard December 6, 2011
Big Broadband:Changing the Equation
to Accelerate Innovation
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Problem
How do we accelerate the arrival of the next generation of broadband networks and services?
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Spoiler Alert: The Answer
C + O < (r)R + EB
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Why is it important?
Technological LeadershipCreates ecosystem of knowledge for designing, building and operating networks and devices
Key to accelerating innovations and economic growth
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Accelerated pace of development means less time to react – so the slow lose out
Incr
emen
tal V
alue
Add
Winner
Loser
Electricity
Telephone
Internet
Mobile telephone
Invention Ubiquity
highvalue
add
mediumvalue add
lowvalue add
INNOVATION
Act now
Potentialfor
competitiveadvantage
Act later
Television
Time
Early action leads to leadership
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Technological Leadership
Key to accelerating innovations and economic growth Increases the “adjacent possible” for every sector
Why is it important?
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What Drives Productivity?
Technological change and other factors
ImprovedLabor Quality
Capital Investment
Data: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Contribution to Long-term Productivity Growth
52%
37%
11%
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Lessons in Innovation: Bring everything to the table
In April 1970, a liquid oxygen tank on the Apollo 13 space craft exploded. Among other problems, Mission Control must find a way to filter the air for the crew on their return trip. They assemble the crew’s available resources and built a contraption called the “mailbox.” The crew replicated this fix on board and arrived home safely.
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Lessons in Innovation: Enable the adjacent possible
Gutenberg used a wine press for his
printing press.
Engineers used analog
vacuum tubes to make digital computers.
NeoNurture incubators are made from auto
parts.
Every talk at this conference is a function of someone figuring out a new adjacent possible….
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Where does innovation take place?
The biggest leaps in growth are driven by meta-ideas…
Improving the exchange of information improves the conditions for innovation.
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How to apply the lessons of innovation?
In the last 2 decades, three revolutions have transformed knowledge exchange:
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Broadband is our common collaborative platform
Improvements in each element of the ecosystem drive improvements in others in a virtuous cycle.
Broadband Ecosystem
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Broadband is our common collaborative platform
Broadband Ecosystem
If devices need to improve 100x in 10 years, what do the networks need to do?
If devices need to improve 100x in 10 years, what do the networks need to do?
If devices get smaller, what does that do to the demands on networks?
If we replace matter with software, what does that do to demands on the network?
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Broadband; the first medium whose fundamental value is collaboration
Big data requires big pipes to enable real time collaboration
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But we can see the bottlenecks ahead…
“DNA Sequencing Caught in Deluge of Data”By Andrew Pollack, November 30, 2011
BGI, based in China, is the world’s largest genomics research institute, with 167 DNA sequencers producing the equivalent of 2,000 human genomes a day.
BGI churns out so much data that it often cannot transmit its results to clients or collaborators over the Internet or other communications lines because that would take weeks. Instead, it sends computer disks containing the data, via FedEx.
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What are barriers to it happening quickly?
• Chicken and egg economics• In the United States, competitive economics• Everywhere, the wrong idea about government policy
affecting the deployment of networks
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Chicken and Egg Economics
C + O > (r)R + EB
C – Capital ExpendituresO– Operating Expendituresr – RiskR- RevenuesEB- Ecosystem Benefits (Benefits that drive increased revenues outside the communities where the new or incremental investments are made.)
Need critical mass of big pipes to drive big apps to drive demand for big pipes, but until then, this math is a wall:Need critical mass of big pipes to drive big apps to drive demand for big pipes, but until then, this math is a wall:
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Worse in United States
C + O > (r)(.5)R + EB
R- Revenues for Underlying Infrastructure Spilt between Two Facilities, Creating Greater Risk for Long-Term Financing
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Diffusion Lag and the problem of yesterday’s logic
Time after introduction
Org
aniz
ation
s ad
optin
g
Sunk costs: costs of reengineering factories, industries.
Sunk thinking: imagined costs of reimagining prevailing logic.
Diffusion of Innovations
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Policy Problem: Winning the Past
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How do we fundamentally view the public stake in communications networks and society?
Simple
Simple
Deployment
Provide subsidy
Equal network everywhere
Rural
Wire line telephone
Lower prices in high cost areas
Complex
Complex
Use
Deliver high performance service
Right network for use case
All
Consumer / use determined
Higher economic, social value
Message
Politics
Imperative
Mechanism
Focus
Population Beneficiary
Network Beneficiary
Prime Purpose
High Performance Knowledge ExchangeConnecting America
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How would spending priorities for Universal Service change?
Directional change as indicated by consumer behavior
Decrease
Increase
Increase
Increase
Actual change
Increase
Decrease
No change
No change, though likely to decrease
Support for:
Wireline to rural homes
Wireless for rural communities
Institutional support for higher speed connectivity
Adoption
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“The danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence. It is to act with yesterday’s logic”– Peter F. Drucker
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Solution: Change the Math
C + O < (r)R + EB
And how do we do that?And how do we do that?
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Lead to …Lead to …
Background for Gig.U
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The University-Community Next Generation Innovation Project
Over the spring and summer of 2011, 37 leading research universities, working in partnership with their local communities, formed Gig.U
Our Mission
Our Purpose
• Accelerate the deployment of world-leading, next generation networks in the United States
• Provide an opportunity to lead in the next generation of ultra-high speed network services and applications
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Not News for Washington Post but…
所美国大学筹备各自建立 1Gbps网络社区“ GigU”
Headline from Chinese Newspaper day after Gig.U launch
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Not News for Washington Post but…
所美国大学筹备各自建立 1Gbps网络社区“ GigU”
Headline from Chinese Newspaper day after Gig.U launch
China Flexes Its FTTx Muscle
China's massive buildout has ensured that the fiber center of gravity has swung to Asia/Pacific. By 2016, Ovum predicts, 50 percent of all wireline broadband subscribers in the region will be FTTx, compared with 16 percent in Europe and 14 percent in North America.
Light Reading, December 5, 2011
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University-communities: a strategic market opportunity
Advantages of University-communities
Demand for Bandwidth
=Greatest
Cost of Deployment
=Least
Positive Impact of Network Access
=Greatest
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State of Play of Networks in University Communities
Opportunity: Create a Seamless Broadband Experience between the Campus and the Community
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University-communities: Birthplace of Network Based Innovations
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In 21st Century economy, we can lower barriers to innovation by increasing bandwidth.
Economic clusters require access to abundant strategic inputs for success
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Key: Increase understanding of need to bring bandwidth to where it fuels the most innovation.
Demand for Bandwidth
=Greatest
Cost of Deployment
=Least
Positive Impact of Network Access
=Greatest
Clusters that depend on the ability to capture and send data and collaborate with non-local sources require greater bandwidth than others.
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It Can Be Done
But It Requires a Different Approach at the Local Level
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Key to Changing the Math—Asymmetry
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Implications: The benefits of world-leading networks
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Use Case
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Other Use Cases
But we really have no idea……
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International Efforts
“Home Internet May Get Even Faster in South Korea”By Mark McDonald, February 21, 2011
Other countries investing in Gigabit connectivity through policy driven actions . . .
“Cheap, Ultrafast Broadband? Hong Kong Has It”By Randall Stross, March 5, 2011
South Korea already claims the world’s fastest Internet connections — the fastest globally by far — but that is hardly good enough for the government here.By the end of 2012, South Korea intends to connect every home in the country to the Internet at one gigabit per second. That would be a tenfold increase from the already blazing national standard and more than 200 times as fast as the average household setup in the United States.
Hong Kong residents can enjoy astoundingly fast broadband at an astoundingly low price. It became available last year, when a scrappy company called Hong Kong Broadband Network introduced a new option for its fiber-to-the-home service: a speed of 1,000 megabits a second--known as a “gig”-- for less than $26 a month. In the United States, we don’t have anything close to that. But we could. And we should.
. . . Others with Gigabit networks include Japan, Sweden, Spain, Turkey
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Other International Efforts
“Osborne announces 10 ‘super connected cities”By Maijia Palmer, November 30, 2011
England has different strategies to build faster broadband…
“London’s CityFibre to build a $800 million gigabit network”By Om Malik, November 3, 2011
The chancellor has pledged an additional £100m fund to help create 10 “super-connected” cities across the UK, which will have broadband speeds of 80 to 100 megabits a second…“It means creating new superfast digital networks for companies across our country. These do not exist today. See what countries like China or Brazil are building, and you’ll also see why we risk falling behind the rest of the world,” Mr Osborne said.
When it comes to fiber-based broadband, the U.K. lags behind its European neighbors, which have been aggressive in rolling out really fast networks. Many critics blame British Telecom dragging its feet mostly because it doesn’t have any real competition.
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Other United States Efforts
Geographic Cluster ModelService Offering, 2Q12
U.S. IgniteRoll-0ut 1Q12
http://us-ignite.org/
U.S. IgniteRoll-0ut 1Q12
http://us-ignite.org/
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Research Facilities: Moving to 100 Gig Connections
“National LambdaRail provides 100 Gigabit Connection for NOAA at Supercomputing 2011. Next Generation Research Capabilities Will Be Demonstrated Using Cisco Technology and NLR Transport Network”By Bizjounrals.com, November 7, 2011
“Research institute deploys 100 Gigabit Ethernet from core to closet”By Shamus McGillicuddy, November 28, 2011
US Dept. of Energy awards cPacket Bizjournals.com - Nov 7, 2011The company plans to use the grant to develop a 100 gigabit per second scalable Network Intrusion Detection System to help protect data center, commercial organizations and government organizations, which are susceptible to security problems
To support its high-performance computing (HPC) requirements, a research institute built a new 100 Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) backbone with Brocade.Researchers at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI) in Chevy Chase, Md., generate large volumes of data imaging, which in many cases requires 10 GbE connections at the campus access layer, according to Spartaco Cicerchia, director of enterprise systems for HHMI.
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Includes:•Local Governments
•Universities•Utilities
•MDU Owners•Anchor Institutions•R&E Networks
Includes:•Local Governments
•Universities•Utilities
•MDU Owners•Anchor Institutions•R&E Networks
What Happens Next With Gig.U?
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What is likely to happen?
Like all great journeys, the level of optimism is greater than the quality of the map…..