the (un)changing nature of work: what to expect and...
TRANSCRIPT
The (Un)Changing Nature of Work: What
to Expect and Implications
Labor Market Policy and Programs
November 7, 2019
Federica Saliola
World Bank – Social Protection and Jobs Group
Jobs, Labor & Migration Course
Technological progress can expand job opportunities
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Lost employment in old sectors
Remaining employment in old sectors
New employment in new sectors
Emp
loym
ent
in e
ach
sec
tor
Sectors (ordered by susceptibility to automation)
Innovation
Au
tom
atio
n
Wide variance in the perceived jobs at risk due to automation
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7% 6% 5% 5% 5%
2%
47%
55%56%
61%
40%41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
US Japan Lithuania Cyprus Ukraine Bolivia
Percentage of jobs at risk of automation
Informality persists in most emerging economies
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Turkey (and mean): 46
Pakistan (and mean): 68
Chad: 81
Paraguay: 71
Cote d'Ivoire: 91
Nepal: 98
Bulgaria: 19
Kosovo: 40
Ethiopia: 36 Brazil: 36
Kyrgyz Republic: 57
Togo: 63
Mexico: 57
Vietnam: 75
Senegal: 89
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income
Info
rmal
Em
plo
yme
nt
(%)
Average 64.7
Two out of three workers in emerging economies are in the
informal economy
What is Changing?
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Industrial jobs are falling in the west and rising in the east
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Source: Authors’ analyses based on World Bank’s World Development Indicators (dataset)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Industry employment (% of employment)
Middle income High income Low income Rising East Asia Eastern Europe
Automation in industrial countries has
boosted imports from developing countries
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Globally, the number and trade share of new products
increased from 1996 to 2017
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Technological advances change production patterns and
accelerate the growth of firms
9
Source: Authors’ analyses based on Walmart Annual Reports, Statista.com, NetEase.com
Technology is changing how people work and the terms on which they work
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LESS standard long-term contract
MORE short-term work often via online work platforms
BUT the numbers are still small: total freelancer population is 84 million, or less than 3 percent of the global labor force
Taking GIG tasks Hiring GIG workers
In many developing countries, the share of
employment in high-skill occupations has increased
Source: Authors’ analyses based on World Bank’s International Income Distribution Data Set (I2D2)
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Bolivia South Africa Zambia Brazil Uganda Bangladesh Sri Lanka Armenia Ecuador Ethiopia Chile Jordan
Per
cen
tage
Po
ints
Annual average change in employment share by occupation skill levelcirca 2000–circa 2015
High-skill occupation Middle-skill occupation Low-skill occupation
High-skill and low-skill occupations grew,
but middle-skill fell
High-skill occupations grew, but
middle- and low-skill fell
High- and middle-skill occupations
grew, but low-skill fell
But, advances in Technology Call for New Skills seemingly
overnight: “Adaptability” is Increasingly in Demand
12
Work presents an opportunity to accumulate human capital,
but returns to work vary considerably
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Mean(France):
4.0
Mean(Gabon):
2.1Mean
(Moldova):1.8
Mean(Liberia):
2.5
Sweden: 5.5
Brazil: 2.8Kenya: 3.0
Tanzania: 3.6
Lithuania: 2.1
Kazakhstan: 1.3
Kyrgyz Republic: -1.4
Afghanistan: 0.3
Uruguay: 3.0
Bulgaria: 1.8
Armenia: 0.8
Malawi: 1.6
Germany: 4.3
South Africa: 2.4 Cameroon: 2.5
Ethiopia: 2.9
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Wag
eIn
cre
ase
(%
) fo
r an
Ad
dit
ion
al Y
ear
of
Exp
eri
en
ce
High Income Upper-middle Income Lower-middle Income Low Income
QUIZ
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What can governments do?
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Three Areas For Policy Action:
16
Human Capital and Lifelong Learning
Social Protection and Labor Policies
Revenue Mobilization
Governments have a
vital role to play in
building human capital
17
The Human Capital Index 2018China 0.67
Egypt 0.49
Nigeria 0.34
Singapore 0.88
Malawi 0.41
The first 1,000 days lay a lifelong foundation
18
The changing nature of work makes tertiary
education more attractive in three ways
1) Skills2) Lifelong learning3) Innovation
Human Capital and Lifelong Learning
Social Protection and Labor Policies
Revenue Mobilization
Three Areas For Policy Action:
20
Convergence in the nature of work?
21
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND
Coverage of social insurance remains low in most developing
countries
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
TUN BRA TUR CHL EGY ARG MOR COL MEX ECU PHI SRI ELS NIC PER GUA HON CAM CDI BOL INS ZAM IND GHA MLI MAD RWA TAN PAK BDI CHA BAN NIG
Per
cen
tage
po
ints
dif
fere
nce
, 1
99
0s-
20
10
s
Co
vera
ge r
ate
(20
10
s)
Coverage in 2010s (left axis) Change in coverage 1990s-2010s, percentage points difference (right axis)
Social protection and labor regulation can manage labor market
challenges
Labor market regulation
Social insurance (mandatory and
voluntary)
- Inclusive social minimum delinked
from employment + layers of
insurance
- More flexibility, but with robust
social protection systems in place
Guaranteed social
minimum
Aspiring to flexicurity…
ALB
ARM
AUT
AZE
BLR
BEL
BGR
HRV
CYPCZE
DNK
EST
FINFRA
GEO
DEU
GRCHUN
ISL
IRLITA
KAZ
KGZ
LVA LTU
MDA
NLD
NOR
POL
PRT
RUSSMR
SRB
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20
Pro
tect
ion
ind
ex
Flexibility index
Low
Low
High
High
Low flexibilityHigh protection
High flexibilityLow protection
High flexibilityHigh protection
Low flexibilityLow protection
Three Areas For Policy Action:
25
Human Capital and Lifelong Learning
Social Protection and Labor Policies
Revenue Mobilization
Social inclusion is costly
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
% o
f G
DP
Social Assistance Package (as exemplified by UBI) Young Adults Package (productive inclusion) Human Capital Package
Lower Middle-Income Countries Upper Middle-Income CountriesLow Income Countries
Tax revenues have to rise, especially in developing economies
27
Some countries spend more on energy subsidies than on social assistance
28
29
http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2019
2019 World Development Report
Appendix
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The Human Capital Index 2018
31
SURVIVAL
Children who don’t survive
don’t grow up to become future
workers
HUMAN CAPITAL INDEX: calculation
SCHOOL
Contribution of quality-adjusted years of school to productivity
of future workers
HEALTH
Contribution of health (average of adult survival
rate and stunting) to
productivity of future workers
HCI
Productivity of a future worker
(relative to benchmark of
complete education and
full health)
x =x