the uk pig industry 2010 - 2011 dr mike varley head: bpex kt & r&d
TRANSCRIPT
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The UK Pig Industry 2010 - 2011
Dr Mike VarleyHead: BPEX KT & R&D
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MENU
Consumer Demands & Operational Landscape
Welfare Regulations & Outcomes – Concepts
Where do we go next?
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The Operating Landscape Consumers have been vociferous on welfare for
about 25 years in the UK and Northern Europe Consumer research has always indicated that at the
point of purchase they ignore the ‘lip service’ on welfare
It is however a major driver for home produced pork purchase
Producers now realise that welfare is a major ‘differentiator’ for UK Pork against competition from Continental Europe (Denmark and Netherlands etc)
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The Operating Landscape UK Pork commands a premium differential price of
around 30 p per kg deadweight compared to the rest of EU industries.
Our supermarket multiple retailers are well aware of this and sell hard on this fact for local UK produce
When imports from Europe really get cheap the retailers have a propensity to express more labelling mistakes !! (isotope analysis can stop this)
Welfare is therefore understood by all sectors of the pork supply chain
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Pigmeat Tradeflows
Red arrow: decrease forecast in n+1Black arrow: no significant changeBlue arrow: increase forecast in n+1
50-100100-150150-200
200-300
300-400
400-500
> 500
Flows in '000 t cwe
58
281158
64
303
67
172
948
107
482
264
253
75
120
74
85
66
96
144
325
57
54
65
84
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Pig meat
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Ave annual % change 97-07:
000 tonnes Poultry meat
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Ave annual % change 97-07:
000 tonnes
Beef and veal
5052545658606264666870
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Ave annual % change 97-07: +2.5%
000 tonnes Sheep meat
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Ave annual % change 97-07: +1.8%
000 tonnes
Global Meat Consumption Trends
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Who are the retail players
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Feed - UFAS
Farm- ABP/Genesis
Transport - ABM
Abattoir – BQAP (BMPA)
Processing – BQAP (BMPA)
Pigmeat Supply Chain Assurance Scheme
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Feedstuff Prices
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Feed wheat prices
60708090
100110120130140150160170180190200
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08
£/tonne delivered
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100125150175200225250275300325350375
Jan-0
5
Jul-05
Jan-0
6
Jul-06
Jan-0
7
Jul-07
Jan-0
8
Jul-08
Jan-0
9
Jun-0
9
Dec-
09
£/tonne Soyameal, HiPro, Ex-mill LiverpoolSoya prices
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Managing the Risk – Protect don’t Predict
There are risk strategies that farmers can take, for example:
- Don't wait until the end of your contract to negotiate the next contract- Buy a % of feed at different times, 25% of their feed every 3 months- Use options?
0
50
100
150
200
250
120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Wheat Price Nov 08 (£/t)
Wha
t you
pay
in N
ov 0
8 (£
/t)
Spot
Option
Nov Wheat Price
Spot Option Difference
120 60000 66000 -6000
130 65000 71000 -6000
140 70000 76000 -6000
150 75000 81000 -6000
160 80000 81000 -1000
170 85000 81000 4000
180 90000 81000 9000
190 95000 81000 14000
200 100000 81000 19000
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Pig Prices
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Retail and Price Movements
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100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 2008 2009 2010
p/kg dw GB finished pig prices
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80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
UK EU-27
p/kg dw
EU and UK pig meat reference prices
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Currency Exchange
Rates
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Exchange rate movements
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10
Euro US dollarUK pence
`
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Net producer margins in the UK
-11
-8
+7
-1
+6
+10 +10
+13
+16+17
+15
+11
+5
+2 +2+3
-15
-10
-5
+0
+5
+10
+15
+20
2007 2008 2009 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10(Est)
£/pig
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The Market
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Carcase Balance (UK Requirement)
23 Million Pigs3 Million Pigs 19 Million Pigs
UK Production approx 9 Million Pigs
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Pork consumption has declined slightly since May 2010, but is still in growth (+0.6%). Beef and Lamb have experienced a decline over the last 3 years.
961
972
978981 980
997
1008
996
990994
941
990
967
12 m/eAug 2007
12 m/eNov 2007
12 m/eFeb 2008
12 m/eMay 2008
12 m/eAug 2008
12 m/eNov 2008
12 m/eFeb 2009
12 m/eMay 2009
12 m/eAug 2009
12 m/eNov 2009
12 m/eFeb 2010
12 m/eMay 2010
12 m/eAug 2010
Total Pork (Cuts)
0.0 3.0
+0.6% vs. ‘09
+2.9% vs. ‘07
Mill
ion
s o
f O
ccas
ion
s
WorldpanelUsage
Total Protein Cuts
+5.2% vs. 07
+0.6% vs. 09
Total Beef Cuts
-6.9% vs. 07
-0.5% vs. 09
Total Lamb Cuts
-1.2% vs. 07
-3.1% vs. 09
Total Chicken Cuts
+6.5% vs. 07
+0.6% vs. 09
How are other proteins
performing?
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2010/sep/04/organic-pork-recipes-fearnley-whittingstallhttp://www.jamieoliver.com/bacon/pigwelfare
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FOCUS ON HAM AND BACON SANDWICHES
The Rise of the Bacon Sarnie
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The BPEX Road to Recovery 2006 - 09The British
Pig Industry
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Where are all the pigs?
• 10,000 pig premises• 1600 assured farms
account for 92% production
• 35 companies account for 50% of breeding herd
• 10 companies account for c. 35% of breeding sows
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Breeding herd trends
516 514 515
475 470
441
468
449 455
436423 427
445 438455 450
460 460
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
575
600
Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11
000 head
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1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
kg pigmeat per sow per year
Estimated sow productivity trends
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UK clean pig slaughterings
14.35
12.37
10.45 10.269.13 8.97 8.97 8.90 9.27 9.26
8.66
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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UK clean pig carcase weights
69.1 69.2
70.8
72.172.7
74.174.7 75.1 74.9
76.3 76.7 76.8
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
70.8 72.7 74.7 74.9 76.7 2008
kg
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PIGS ARE -
Omnivores – they will eat anything !! Non-ruminants – they cannot digest fibre Very fast growing – double birth weight every 7 days
Reach 100 kg at 140 days Very good feed converters – 2.1 FCR Nowadays – very lean indeed P2 9 mm
Very prolific – 26-33 pigs/sow/year – gives a low maintenance for the breeding female
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What Welfare is Important? Outdoor production – versus indoor intensive – 40% of UK
industry is outdoor bred – liked by consumers This is a visible indicator to consumers (who then complain
about keeping pigs outdoors in winter !! UK banned individual sow stalls in 2000 (rest of EU by 2012)
UK all straw based group housed systems Regulations on stocking densities Tail docking banned – but low compliance on this Teeth clipping banned – low compliance Weaning not less than 28 days – high compliance Compulsory use of manipulable materials for all pigs
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European Welfare
EU Legislation
QA Rules
Supermarket RulesPremium Rules
UK Legislation
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UK ‘High’ Welfare
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BMI - Corowa
Large Scale Pig Production
Australia
27,000 sows – one site – 5 modules
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Outdoor Pig Production – Yorkshire England
Barley, Wheat, Peas, Beans, Soyabean, Fish Meal, Co-Products
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Defining welfare
“An individual’s state as regards its attempts to cope with its environment” (Broom, 1986)
“ Prevention of the experience of an unpleasant mental state” (Duncan & Petherick, 1991)
“ The capacity of an animal to sustain physical fitness and avoid mental suffering” (Webster, 1998)
My optimal welfare is achieved when I have a Lear Jet and 2 Ferraris plus 6 wives and 4 houses to keep them all in. Varley 2010
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THE FIVE FREEDOMS
Freedom from hunger and thirst
Freedom from thermal and physical discomfort
Freedom from pain, injury and disease
Freedom from fear and stress
Freedom to express normal behaviour
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Requirements of practicalassessment methods
Simple
Quick
Objective
Credible
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Welfare Evaluation
Assessment of animal behaviour Stereotypies, Open Field testing etc
Assessment of immune status IgG concentrations, ACTH challenge etc
Assessment of animal performance KPIs growth rate, FCR, morbidity and mortality
Not practicable under individual farm conditions over time
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ICEBERG INDICATORS
What you can measure simply and quickly
What it reliably represents in terms of overall pig welfare (but takes too much time and money to measure)
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An Iceberg Indicator
Score 0
Score 1
Score 2
Skin LesionsSkin Lesions: : Do a few scratches matter?
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Lesion Scoring Systematic subjective scoring of tail and body lesions
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The EU Model – Data Flow
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Welfare Outcomes – Stage 1
On-farm evaluation (6 farms) of welfare indicators (lesions, dirtiness, lameness, oral behaviour, bursae etc)
Small scale study on limited numbers
Did yield a ‘boil down’ to 5 principal indicators of pig welfare that could be used within existing QA processes or veterinary visits
Bristol University programme
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Welfare Outcome – Stage 2
Aim to identify and measure 180 farms – outdoor indoor breeding and finishing units
Full training of local veterinarians
To identify any measurement or analytical / statistical problems
The next stage is then full national roll out
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Welfare Outcome – Stage 2
Tail Lesion Score
Body Lesion Score
Lameness Score
Manipulable Material Use
Proportion of Hospitalised Pigs
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Conclusions
Stage 1 has produced some ‘easy measures’ that are practical and yet are meaningful in the big iceberg picture
The Stage 2 scheme can be quickly followed by the national roll-out
The programme is supported by the QA programmes – QA inspectors will ultimately carry out the inspections as part of their normal quarterly visits (Supermarkets are watching carefully)
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Conclusions
Consumers continue to express concerns on animal welfare but in the UK do realise that UK produced pork is likely to be superior to imported product There is now much more solid supply chain cooperation on welfare and marketing of high welfare UK produce. RSPCA Freedom Foods is also another brand that is known and understood by consumers The UK Quality Standard Mark – the Red Tractor is also well understood
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Final Thought!