the ubi banca group consolidated results as at 30th ... · consolidated results as at 30th...
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The UBI Banca Group
Consolidated Results as at 30th September 2013
13th November 2013
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by Unione di Banche Italiane Scpa ("UBI") for informational purposes only and for use in the presentation ofNovember 2013. It is not permitted to publish, transmit or otherwise reproduce this document, in whole or in part, in any format, to any thirdparty without the express written consent of UBI and it is not permitted to alter, manipulate, obscure or take out of context any information setout in the documentout in the document.
The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein have not been independently verified and are subject to change withoutnotice. They have been obtained from, or are based upon, sources we believe to be reliable but UBI makes no representation (eitherexpressed or implied) or warranty on their completeness, timeliness or accuracy. Nothing contained in this document or expressed during thepresentation constitutes financial legal tax or other advice nor should any investment or any other decision be solely based on thispresentation constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decision be solely based on thisdocument.This document does not constitute a solicitation, offer, invitation or recommendation to purchase, subscribe or sell for any investmentinstruments, to effect any transaction, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.This document contains statements that are forward-looking: such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of UBI andare subject to significant risks and uncertainties These risks and uncertainties many of which are outside the control of UBI could cause theare subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties, many of which are outside the control of UBI, could cause theresults of UBI to differ materially from those set forth in such forward looking statements.Under no circumstances will UBI or its affiliates, representatives, directors, officers and employees have any liability whatsoever (in negligenceor otherwise) for any loss or damage howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection withthe document or the above mentioned presentation.For further information about the UBI Group, please refer to publicly available information, including Annual, Quarterly and Interim Reports.By receiving this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations.Please be informed that some of the managers of UBI involved in the drawing up and in the presentation of data contained in this documenteither participated in a stock option plan and were therefore assigned stock of the company or possess stock of the bank otherwise acquired.The disclosure relating to shareholdings of top management is available in the annual reportsThe disclosure relating to shareholdings of top management is available in the annual reports.
Methodology
The “notes on the reclassified financial statements” contained in the periodic financial reports of the Group may be consulted for a fullercomprehension of the rules followed in preparing the reclassified financial statements.
2
Executive summary
CORE TIER 1 ratio: 12 5%A l it l d CORE TIER 1 ratio: 12.5%
TOTAL CAPITAL ratio: 19.3%
Total RWA / Total ASSETS: 48.2%
CAPITALAmple capital and liquidity buffers
uphold balance sheet
CET ratio (fully loaded): confirmed above 10% and
further strengthened
LEVERAGE* 5 07%BASEL 3
balance sheet soundness
LEVERAGE*: 5.07%
NSFR > 1
LCR > 1
BASEL 3
Total ELIGIBLE ASSETS: € 33.7** bln (as at 31 Oct ’13)
LOAN / DEPOSIT ratio: 96.9%LIQUIDITY
Net Profit: € 49 mln in 3Q13 (approx. € 102 mln in 9M13)PROFIT & LOSSSolid quarterly results
3* On the basis of Basel 3 requirements, the maximum financial leverage ratio is set at 3%, in order to contain total banking debt and as a consequence,
the tier one capital must be equal to at least 3% of on- and off-balance-sheet assets ** Including assets pledged for CCG repos (€ 4.2 bln)
Lending volumes still weak due to low demand but new origination inflows show slight improvement in 3Q13/3Q12, both as concerns retail mortgage and
in bln € 30 Sept '12 31 Dec '12 30 June '13 30 Sept '13 % Yo Y % Qo Q
g p , g gSmall Business loans
in bln € 30 Sept 12 31 Dec 12 30 June 13 30 Sept 13 changes changes
46.5 46.1 44.7 44.4 -4.6% -0.8%
of which: Private Customers 21.3 21.3 21.2 21.3 -0.3% 0.4%
Small business 15.3 15.3 14.5 14.5 -5.4% -0.1%
Retail Trends in new origination (Network Banks):
Small business 15.3 15.3 14.5 14.5 5.4% 0.1%
UBI Banca (former Banca 24/7)* 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.1 -11.4% -6.0%
Prestitalia* 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.5 -16.1% -3.2%
30.3 29.5 29.5 28.6 -5.8% -3.1%Corporate
RUN-OFF 3Q13 / 3Q12: positive growth of m/l termloans both in the private customers segment(mortgage loans +40.2%) and in the smallbusiness segment (+3.3%)
of which: Core corporate 15.5 15.3 14.9 14.7 -5.1% -1.4%Large corporate 8.1 7.9 8.9 8.3 1.9% -6.6%UBI Banca (former Centrobanca) 6.7 6.3 5.7 5.6 -16.9% -2.0%
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 -2.1% -0.6%Private
9M13 / 9M12: growth in new origination ofmortgage loans in the private customerssegment (+2.1%) while new origination ofsmall business and corporate m/l term loans is0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.1% 0.6%
17.2 16.5 16.3 16.1 -6.3% -1.0%
of which: UBI Leasing 8.3 8.1 7.8 7.6 -8.3% -2.2%UBI Factor 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1% -3.6%UBI*** 2 5 1 7 1 5 1 6 34 4% 12 8%
Private
Other**
small business and corporate m/l term loans isdown (approx. 6%)
Stocks:
Trends in lending are also affected by theUBI*** 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 -34.4% 12.8%
94.8 92.9 91.3 89.8 -5.3% -1.6%Total
Trends in lending are also affected by theprogressive run-off of the former Banca 24-7portfolio (merged in UBI Banca) and, followingthe dismissal of third party agents contracts,by the restructuring and downsizing of thesalary-backed loans (Prestitalia) and leasingy ( ) g(UBI Leasing) businesses
4
* Following the merger of Banca 24/7 in UBI Banca, effective July 2012, UBI Banca is managing the remaining stock of non captive mortgages andpersonal and special purpose loans. Prestitalia is managing the “salary backed loan” operations
** Minor companies, IAS adjustments, loans not segmented to commercial portfolios and intercompany eliminations*** UBI net of intercompany
UBI Banca’s liquidity position allowed optimisation of higher cost funding with a benefit in terms of NIILoan to Deposit ratio: 96.9% (94.8% including € 2 bln recent public issuances)
IAS amounts in € bln 30 Sept '12 31 Dec '12 30 June '13 30 Sept '13 quarterly % changes
annual % changes
TOTAL DIRECT FUNDING 100.3 98.8 96.3 92.8 -3.7% -7.5%Current accounts and depositsare down YoY due to:100%
FROM ORDINARY CUSTOMERS 81.4 80.3 77.9 75.3 -3.4% -7.5%
Current accounts & deposits (other than CCG) 45.8 44.7 43.0 42.6 -1.0% -7.0%CCG (run-off due to new regulation) 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
-€2 bln euro of higher cost morevolatile institutional and largecorporate funding (-€0.4 bln3Q/2Q13) and switch to AUMTerm deposits contraction
~80%
Term deposits, other payables and repos 4.7 4.7 4.4 3.1 -30.1% -33.8%
Securities in issue: Network banks + UBI 23.1 24.5 24.4 23.8 -2.6% 2.7%Extra-captive customers* 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.8Other (mainly customer CDs) 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 0
Term deposits contractionsupports further improvement inmark down (+22bps 3Q/2Q13 and+51 bps 3Q13/3Q12)
€0 64 bln soft mandatory conOther (mainly customer CDs) 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.0
FROM INSTITUTIONAL CUSTOMERS 18.9 18.5 18.5 17.5 -5.2% -7.3%
Securities in issue:Covered Bonds 6 3 6 3 6 3 6 3
€0.64 bln soft mandatory con-vertible bond redeemed in July ‘13Retail bonds replacement rate:100%
~20%
Covered Bonds 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3EMTN 6.9 7.1 5.8 5.1CD and ECP 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3Preferred shares 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Repos with CCG 4.4 3.9 5.4 5.5
In October 2013, new issuances: € 1.25 bln Covered Bond € 0.75 bln EmtnRepos with CCG 4.4 3.9 5.4 5.5
5* Bonds placed on third party banks networks
Securities in issue: maturity profile
Network BanksUBI Banca and former Centrobanca*
(Nominal amounts in € bln, netted of bond repurchases)
Ordinary customersRetail bonds
3.012.83
8.36
Cash redemption of € 639 mln soft mandatory bond on10th July ’13 (5.75% annual gross coupon)
Matured (€ bln) 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
1.355.60
3.55 2.110.35
4Q13 2014 2015 2016 and following
Matured (€ bln) 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
UBI Banca and former Centrobanca 0.14 0.04 0.74Network Banks 1.19 1.16 1.40
following
EMTN Covered Bonds**
I S t ‘13 f L Ti 2 h d f € 70 4
(Nominal amounts in € bln, excl. preference shares for € 0.3 bln)October 2013 issuances
(see annex 3 for detail)
Institutional investorsEMTN and Covered Bonds
2.08
0.03
0.05
0.551.80
In Sept ‘13, former Lower Tier 2 repurchased for € 70.4mln (out of € 182 mln, at 93%). Subordination clauseeliminated on remaining outstanding bonds
Matured (€ bln) 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
1.250.75
1.6008
0.970.10 0.05 0.16 0.03
1.801.05 0.05 1.05
1.11
4Q13 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 and
Matured (€ bln) 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
EMTN 1.42 - 0.72Covered bonds - - -
6
and following
* Extra-captive: bonds placed on third party banks networks** Inclusive of € 0.5 bln of private placement with BEI expiring in 2022. Further € 0.75 bln retained issue not included
Italian Govies proprietary portfolio stable QoQ at around € 19.5 billion
I € l IAS l
Financial assets: total portfolioItalian Govies portfolio breakdown: 30 September 2013
In € mln, IAS values
Debt instruments 20,188 20,713 20,608of which: Italian Govies 17,966 19,545 19,445
31 Dec 12 30 June 13 30 Sept 13
HFT (Held for trading)
€ 19.4 bln, IAS values
15%Equity instruments* 390 345 275
Units in O.I.C.R.** 217 220 220
Others*** 588 484 474 HTM (Held to maturity)AFS (Available for sale)
16%
69%
Total 21,383 21,763 21,576
AFS Reser e e ol tion on Italian Go ies
30 Sept 11 31 Dec 12 30 Sept 13 11 Nov 13 0.2 2013
AFS Reserve evolution on Italian Govies(€ mln)
Maturity Profile(market values, € bln)
(868)(589) (404)
(230)
2.7
1.6
5.8 2.8 3.2
2018-2021
2016-2017
2014-2015
(868)3.1 Over
Reference for EBA capital exercise as
at 8th Dec 2011Modified Duration of Italian Govies portfolio: 0.9 years
* Progressive sale of the stake in Intesa Sanpaolo: in 3Q13, 63.6 mln shares sold (in addition to 33.4 mln in 1H13). At the end of Sept’ 13,UBI held 0.11% of Intesa Sanpaolo ordinary share capital
** Collective investment units *** Others: financial derivatives and financing7
Net Profit: € 49 mln in 3Q13, €102 mln in 9M13
MAIN INCOME STATEMENT ITEMSFigures in € mln 9M12 9M13 % change 3Q12 2Q13 3Q13 % YoY % QoQ
Net interest income 1,446 1,291 (10.7%) 466 428 446 (4.4%) 4.2% Net commission income 872 888 1.9% 286 297 286 0.1% (3.9%) Net result from finance 148 168 13.6% 43 67 59 37.7% (12.3%) Other income items 170 138 (18.4%) 46 59 43 (6.4%) (27.5%)
Operating income 2,635 2,486 (5.7%) 841 852 834 (0.8%) (2.2%) Staff costs (1,037) (974) (6.1%) (349) (315) (328) (5.9%) 4.2%
Other administrative expenses (514) (494) (3.8%) (161) (174) (159) (1.7%) (8.6%)
Net impairment losses on property, equipment and investment property and intangible assets (142) (135) (4.6%) (46) (45) (45) (2.4%) (1.0%)
Operating expenses (1,693) (1,603) (5.3%) (556) (534) (532) (4.4%) (0.4%)
Net operating income 943 883 (6.4%) 285 319 303 6.1% (5.1%)
Net impairment losses on loans (495) (577) 16.6% (160) (226) (193) 20.2% (14.8%)
Net impairment losses on other assets and liabilities (51) (22) (56.1%) (1) (9) (5) n.s. (44.1%)
Net provisions for risks and charges (21) (14) (31.2%) 0 (9) (3) n.s. (70.6%)
Profits from disposal of equity investments 9 0 (97.9%) 9 2 (1) n.s. n.s.
Pre-tax profit from continuing operations 385 270 (30.0%) 132 76 101 (23.6%) 32.9%
Taxes on income for the period from continuing operations (139) (150) 7.8% (63) (47) (46) (25.7%) (0.1%)
Profit for the period attributable to non-controlling interests (16) (18) 16.2% (1) (3) (6) n.s. 81.5% o t o t e pe od att butab e to o co t o g te ests ( 6) ( 8) ( ) (3) (6)
Profit for the period attributable to the shareholders of the Parentbefore charges for exit incentives impairments on goodwill andintangible assets
231 102 (55.8%) 69 26 49 (28.5%) 85.1%
Charges for exit incentives (8) n s (5) n s n s(net of tax and non-controlling interests) (8) - n.s. (5) - - n.s. n.s.
Profit for the period 223 102 (54.2%) 63 26 49 (22.5%) 85.1%
Profit for the period NET OF NON-RECURRING ITEMS 180 74 (58.8%) 60 33 22 (63.2%) (33.6%)
8Net interest income and other income items have been restated to include in the latter all credit-related fees, according to newBank of Italy regulations Further detail on non-recurring items in annex 7
Net Interest Income: +4.2% 3Q/2Q13 (+2.6% 2Q/1Q13) Positive 2013 QoQ trend is confirmed thanks mainly to optimisation of fundingPositive 2013 QoQ trend is confirmed thanks mainly to optimisation of funding and notwithstanding lending evolution and low market rates
Net Interest Income (Quarterly Evolution)Net Interest Income (Yearly Evolution)
466 446
(€ mln) +4.2%-10.7%
466417 417
428446
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
1,4461,291
9M12 9M13 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
Euribor and Customer spread evolution*
9M12 9M13
3Q12 2Q13 3Q13 3Q13 2Q13 3Q13 3Q12
Progressive improvement inQoQ spread is compensatinglower lending volumes
3Q12 2Q13 3Q13 3Q13 vs 2Q13 3Q13 vs 3Q121M Euribor 0.17% 0.12% 0.13% +1 bp ‐4 bps
Customer Spread 1.62% 1.61% 1.68% + 7 bps + 6 bps
Mark Up 2.91% 2.81% 2.80% ‐1 bp ‐11 bps
Mark Down by type of funding (stocks)
o e e d g o u es Mark Up 2.91% 2.81% 2.80% 1 bp 11 bps
Mark Down ‐1.29% ‐1.20% ‐1.12% + 8 bps + 17 bps
3Q12 2Q13 3Q13 3Q13 vs 2Q13 3Q13 vs 3Q12Sight Deposits ‐0.33% ‐0.27% ‐0.22% + 5 bps + 11 bpsTerm Deposits ‐3.13% ‐2.84% ‐2.62% +22 bps +51 bpsRetail Bonds ‐1.76% ‐1.54% ‐1.49% + 5 bps +27 bpsInstitutional Bonds ‐1.98% ‐1.76% ‐1.77% ‐1 bp +21 bps
9* Average Period Data, stocks referred to the whole Group
p p
Net Commission Income. Positive 9 month progression: +1.9% YoY3Q13 influenced by seasonality vs. 2Q13 (-3.9%) but in line with vs. 3Q12 (+0.1%)
872 888 297+1.9%
(€ mln)-3.9%(€ mln)
872 888 287 286 286
9M12 9M132Q12 2Q13 3Q12 3Q13
Net Commission Income€ mln 9M12 9M13 % YoY
Guarantees (commissions on State guaranty bonds) (31.0) (34.8) 12.2%
BANKING RELATED COMMISSIONS 501 3 482 7 3 7% Banking related commissions affected
Excluding fee expense on State guarantybonds, Net Commission Income up by +2.2% 3Q12 2Q13 3Q13
% 3Q13 vs.
3Q12
% 3Q13 vs.
2Q13
(11.8) (11.6) (11.7) -0.7% 1.1%
168 7 159 0 157 9 6 4% 0 7%BANKING RELATED COMMISSIONS 501.3 482.7 -3.7%
of which:Guarantees (bank ing activity) 37.0 36.9 -0.4%
Collection and payment services 78.4 79.8 1.8%
Services for factoring transactions 19.4 17.9 -7.8%
Banking related commissions affectedby trends in lending (among Otherservices, commitment fee is down byapprox. € 10 mln)
168.7 159.0 157.9 -6.4% -0.7%
11.5 10.4 11.6 1.2% 11.3%23.7 27.3 26.4 11.7% -3.0%
6.2 5.9 5.5 -10.9% -5.8%
Current accounts management 157.5 151.1 -4.1%Other services 209.0 197.0 -5.7%
MANAGEMENT, TRADING & ADVISORY SERVICES 401.3 440.2 9.7%
of which:
Management, trading and advisoryservices fees benefit from better portfolio
t lt th l t f iti
53.5 50.8 52.2 -2.5% 2.8%73.8 64.7 62.2 -15.7% -3.9%
128.7 150.0 139.6 8.5% -6.9%*
Portfolio management 169.6 174.2 2.7%Placement of securities 102.3 125.7 22.8%Third party services distribution 101.1 114.3 13.1%
TOTAL 871.6 888.1 1.9%
mgmt results, the placement of securities(particularly UBI Pramerica Sicavproducts) and successful distribution ofthird party services (especially insuranceproducts)
56.6 58.8 58.8 3.9% 0.0%
29.7 43.8 33.8 13.6% -22.9%33.7 38.4 39.0 15.8% 1.5%
285.5 297.5 285.9 0.1% -3.9%
10* Includes FX negotiations
Discipline in cost containment persists: - 5.3% YoY (-0.4% 3Q/2Q13)Total Operating Costs Evolution:
2.4%1,693 1,603-5.3%
D&A
Total operating costs
p gSolid Track Record
(€ mln)
-1.8%
FY08/FY07 FY09/FY08 FY10/FY09 FY11/FY10 FY12/FY11 9M13/9M12514 494
142 135-3.8%
-4.6%Other Adm.Expenses
(incl. PPA*)
-3.7% -3.2%
-5.1% -5.3%1,037 974-6.1%
Staff costs
9M12 9M13
(€ mln)
5563Q12
Total operating costs
331
3491Q13
3Q12
Staff costs
162
1611Q13
3Q12
Other Adm. Exp.
343 175FY12 avg.
FY12 avg. FY12 avg.
( )
532
534
538556
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
3Q12
328
315
331
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
159
174
162
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13567
5323Q13
Structural drop confirmedBenefits from Nov12/Feb13 trade union agreement2Q13 benefited from the release of
Quarterly costs anyway below2012 average2Q13 included commercial campaigncosts (mortgage loans for young couples
11* PPA effect amounted to € 15.1 mln in 9M12 and to € 15.3 mln in 9M13
provisions costs (mortgage loans for young couplesand start up businesses financing)
Lower growth in deteriorated loans stocks in 9M13 vs 9M12 (1.4 bln vs 1.8 bln)
Gross deteriorated loans amount (€/mln)
- STOCKSLower increase in deteriorated loans stocks in
+€1.4 bln+€1.8 bln
8,589 9,107 9,454 10,343 10,958 11,457 11,840 12,367Lower increase in deteriorated loans stocks in9M13 vs 9M12: €1.4 bln vs €1.8 blnQuarterly CAGR 4.1% in 9M13 vs 6.4% in 9M12
- INFLOWS (9M13 vs 9M12):
Dec '11 Mar '12 June '12 Sept '12 Dec '12 Mar '13 June '13 Sept '13
+3.8%
+9.4%+6.0%
+4.5%+3.3%
INFLOWS (9M13 vs 9M12):All riskier categories of deteriorated loans showa DECREASE in new inflows from performingloansPast due loans show higher inflows however
+6.0%+4.4%
Inflows from performing loans to deteriorated loans (€/mln) INFLOWS (€/mln) FROM PERF
ast due oa s s o g e o s o e emitigated by higher outflows to performingloans (€433 mln vs €258 mln)
1 317Non Performing(“Sofferenze”)
INFLOWS (€/mln) FROM PERF. LOANS TO:
23593
€3.06 bln€2.99 bln
-60.5%
1,2421,148811
1,020 1,1581,317
1,069 967 1,028
1,497 1 814
+25.8% +13.5% +13.7% Past due
Impaired(“Incagli”) -7.6%
+21.2%
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
1,814 -18.9% -9.5% 16 9
9M12 9M13
Restructured
+6.4%+21.2%
-44.2%
12
Asset Quality: trends in stated coverage reflect higher level of collateralised deteriorated loans, low LTV on top of write-offs and disposals
Coverage
30 Sept '13pro forma NPLs disposal 30 Jun '13 30 Sept '13
30 Sept '13including
Stated including write-offs
Total deteriorated loans 26.31% 25.86% 35.44% 26.45% 35.89%NPLs (sofferenze) 41.78% 41.30% 55.57% 42.28% 56.12%
Coverage 30 Jun 13 30 Sept 13 including write-offs
Highly provisioned NPLs disposals:
• 9M13: €107.3 mln covered at ~95%
• 2012: € 108 2 mln covered at ~96%Impaired loans (incagli) 14.07% 14.03% 14.03% 14.03% 14.03%Restructured loans 14.45% 15.28% 15.28% 15.28% 15.28%Past due loans 3.23% 3.06% 3.06% 3.06% 3.06%Performing loans 0.56% 0.57% 0.57% 0.57% 0.57%
• 2012: € 108.2 mln covered at 96%
• 2011: € 219.4 mln covered at ~98.5%
• …
g
type of prevailing guarantee:well over 60% of loan portfolio
conservative loan to value***:Stocks
Coverage of non collateralised p
assisted by collateral (mainly real estate)*
Deteriorated Performing
57.4%44.8%> 60%Total loan book
Italian banking system** ~45%
Fair value updated every 6 months
deteriorated loans (including write-offs for non
performing loans)
65 8%I i d l
Retail
60%
21 3%I i d l
61.4%
65.8%
NPLs
Impaired loans
Corporate
51.8%42.8%
Italian banking system** 41%
71.8%
21.3%
NPLs
Impaired loans
13*Adding up personal guarantees, over 77% of the portfolio is secured **Source: Bankit-Bollettino Statistico II/2013, tables TDC30136 and TDC30033*** Arithmetic mean
CorporateManagement data, figures as at Sept’13, unless otherwise stated
Annualised Cost of Credit at 86 bps vs. 70 bps in 2012
(€ mln)Impairment Losses on Loans Impairment Losses on Loans (quarterly evolution)
(€ mln)
160
353
158226 193
495 577
160 1583Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
Total customer loans (bln€)
Cost of credit
94.8 92.9
68 152*
92.3
68
9M12 9M1391.3
99
89.8
86Cost of credit(bps annualised)
68 152* 68
Of which, Breakdown of Analytical Impairment
99 86
‐245 523Q13
y p(€ mln)
414
‐230
‐281
40
75
69
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
‐202
‐414
40
40
3Q12
4Q12
Write downs Write backs **Write downs Write backs
14* Including Bank of Italy inspection ** Writebacks net of time reversal: €143 mln in 9M12, €133 mln in 9M13, € 26mln in 3Q12 and €33 mln in 3Q13
Outlook for 4Q2013
The weak performance of the Italian economy is forecast to continue again in the lastquarter of 2013quarter of 2013
As concerns the UBI Group, a further slight improvement is expected in net interestincome under current market conditions. This is due, amongst other things, to abalanced financial structure which has allowed pursuit of an attentive policy to managethe more expensive and less stable components of funding
Good performance is expected by fee and commission income which will benefit Good performance is expected by fee and commission income, which will benefit,amongst other things, from the performance fees of the asset management company
Containment of operating expenses is confirmed year on year
Recent developments on financial markets allow a positive forecast to be made for theGroup finance results in the fourth quarter which should substantially offset the higherloan loss provisions resulting from the delay in the economic recoveryloan loss provisions resulting from the delay in the economic recovery.
15
Annexes
16
Reclassified balance sheet: highlightsAnnex 1
Financial assets (AFS, HFT, FV, HTM) 20,003 21,383 21,763 21,576 7.9% -0.9%
30.09.2013 % quarterly change
MAIN ASSETS ITEMSFigures in millions of euro
% annual change30.09.2012 31.12.2012 30.06.2013
Loans to customers 94,843 92,888 91,268 89,846 -5.3% -1.6%
Property, equipment and investment property 1,973 1,967 1,922 1,909 -3.3% -0.7%
Intangible assets 2,962 2,965 2,946 2,938 -0.8% -0.3%
of which: goodwill 2,539 2,537 2,537 2,537 -0.1% 0.0%
Tax assets 2,526 2,628 2,393 2,386 -5.5% -0.3%
Other assets 1,139 1,060 1,543 940 -17.5% -39.1%
Total assets 132,103 132,434 127,930 125,002 -5.4% -2.3%
30.09.2013 % quarterly change
MAIN LIABILITIES AND EQUITY ITEMSFigures in millions of euro
% annual change30.09.2012 31.12.2012 30.06.2013
Net interbank position* 9,479 9,139 10,250 10,948 15.5% 6.8%
Due to customers 56,356 53,758 52,843 51,223 -9.1% -3.1%
Securities issued 43 908 45 059 43 501 41 546 5 4% 4 5%
changeg change
Securities issued 43,908 45,059 43,501 41,546 -5.4% -4.5%
Tax liabilities 632 666 537 620 -2.0% 15.4%
Net worth attributable to the Parent 9,401 9,655 9,809 9,907 5.4% 1.0%
N t lli i t t 885 839 832 838 5 4% 0 7%Non-controlling interests 885 839 832 838 -5.4% 0.7%
Profit for the period 223 83 53 102 -54.2% 92.6%
Total liabilities and equity 132,103 132,434 127,930 125,002 -5.4% -2.3%
17* Including €12 bln LTRO
Ratios as at 30 September 2013: Core Tier 1 at 12.53%, Tier 1 at 13.16% and Total Capital Ratio at 19.30%
Annex 2
p
Potential dividend included pro-rata
Figures in millions of euro31 Dec 2012 Basel II AIRB
30 June 2013Basel II AIRB
30 Sept 2013*Basel II AIRB
Tier 1 (before filters) 8 124 2 8 160 4 8 204Tier 1 (before filters) 8,124.2 8,160.4 8,204Preference shares, minorities saving and priv. shares net of grandfathering
382.9 382.9 382.9
Tier 1 capital filters -30.5 -25.0 -14.9 Tier 1 (after filters) 8,476.6 8,518.3 8,571.5
Increase from June ‘13 followingadoption of AIRB model on RetailCredit Risk
Deductions from Tier 1 -212.9 -578.0 -638.0
of which: negative elements for 50% deduction excess of expected losses over impairment losses
-71.6 -370.4 -424.2
Tier 1 after filters and specific deductions 8,263.7 7,940.3 7,933.5Supplementary capital after filters 4,310.5 4,270.8 4,299.2
Deductions from supplementary capital -212.9 -578.0 -638.0 of which: negative elements for 50% deduction excess of expected losses over impairment losses
-71.6 -370.4 -424.2
S l t it l ft filt d ifi d d ti 4 097 7 3 692 8 3 661 2Supplementary capital after filters and specific deductions 4,097.7 3,692.8 3,661.2Deductions from Tier 1 + supplementary capital -157.8 - -
Total supervisory capital 12,203.6 11,633.2 11,594.7Credit risk prudential requirements 5,611.6 4,518.6 4,342.0Market risk 78 3 63 5 59 5Market risk 78.3 63.5 59.5Operational risk 437.3 421.0 421.0
Total prudential requirements 6,127.1 5,003.1 4,822.6
Tier III subordinated liabilitiesComputable value 55.9 45.3 42.5p
Risk weighted assets 76,589 62,539 60,282
Core Tier I after deductions from Core capital 10.29% 12.08% 12.53% Tier I 10.79% 12.70% 13.16% Total capital ratio 16 01% 18 67% 19 30%
In 4Q13, updating of PD and LGDhistorical data
18* AIRB models both on network banks’ Corporate and Retail Credit Risk are applied as from June 2013. In Dec ’12 AIRB models were applied only in the calculation of network banks’ Corporate Credit Risk. Data as at 30th September 2013 reported on a basis comparable with December 2012 and June 2013.
Total capital ratio 16.01% 18.67% 19.30%
Annex 3
New issuances in October: EMTN and Covered Bond issuances
€ 750 mln 3.5 year senior unsecured issued in October 2013, fixed rate 2.75%
EMTN
€ 1.25 bln 7 year covered bond issued in October 2013, fixed rate 3.125%
COVERED BOND
in October 2013, fixed rate 2.75% October 2013, fixed rate 3.125%
Italian Italian
Allocation by Geography
Investors, 34%
Italian Investors,
40%
GeographyForeign
Investors, 66%
Foreign Investors,
60%
I Oth 5%
Allocation by
Insurances and Pension Funds, 15%
Other, 5% Insurances and Pension Funds, 19%
Other, 3%
Investor TypeFund
Managers, 65%Banks, 15%
Fund Managers,
60%Banks 18%
19
65%Banks, 15% 60%Banks, 18%
Annex 4
As at end October 2013, total eligible assets amount to € 33.7 bln.Unencumbered eligible assets at € 17.3 bln, representing a broad liquidity bufferg , p g q y
%Eligible assets breakdown
Italian Govies
Gov. Guaranteed bonds
Retained securitisations
~58%~17%
~13%
Eligible assets pool*:
€ 33.7 bln(net of haircut)
of which
Retained covered bonds
Other (ABACO)
~7%
~5%
(net of haircut)
Unencumberedeligible assets:
€ 17.3 bln
~ 40% of short term deposits
Eligible assets l d d f LTRO *
High-quality available assets
guarantee pledged for LTROs*:
€ 12.2** blnimmediate access to liquidity
Eligible assets used in CCG repos:
€ 4.2 bln
20* € 6 bln of LTRO were taken in December 2011, further € 6 bln in February 2012 ** Including among others interest expense accrued
Securities Portfolio Details* Annex 5
Composition of the portfolio 30.09.2012 31.12.2012 30.06.2013 30.09.2013
Government bonds 89.5% 91.1% 92.9% 92.9%
Corporate bonds (mainly bank issues) 9.2% 7.7% 6.0% 6.0%
Hedge funds 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
BY TYPE OF FINANCIAL
INSTRUMENT g
Funds and shares 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5%
Floating rate** 27.9% 26.0% 21.1% 27.4%
INSTRUMENT
Fixed rate 66.8% 69.0% 74.1% 67.7%
Structured securities 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8%
Shares, funds, convertible bonds 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2%
BY FINANCIAL PROFILE
Securities in euro 99.5% 99.5% 99.6% 99.6%
Securites of the euro area 97.9% 98.1% 98.6% 98.6%
BY CURRENCY
BY GEOGRAPHICAL
USA securities 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0%
Investment grade 97.9% 98.0% 98.4% 98.9%
BY GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION
BY RATINGS (BONDS)Average rating Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa2
BY RATINGS (BONDS)
21* Analysis refers to a portfolio which excludes participations, some smaller portfolios and derivatives** Fixed rate securities with asset swaps are considered as floating rate securities; securities in asset swap represent 83%
of floating rate securities as at 30 September 2013
Asset Quality detailsAnnex 6
LOANS TO CUSTOMERS - AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2013GROSS EXPOSURE IMPAIRMENT
LOSSES € mln€ mln %* CARRYING AMOUNT COVERAGE
RATIO %€ mln %*
NPLs (Sofferenze) 6.11% 2,361IMPAIRED LOANS (Incagli) 5.36% 703RESTRUCTURED LOANS 0.73% 105PAST DUE 1 02% 29
3.73%3,355 41.30%4.79%4,307 14.03%0.65%580 15.28%1 03%926 3 06%
5,7165,010
685956PAST DUE 1.02% 29
TOTAL DETERIORATED LOANS 13.22% 3,198
1.03%926 3.06%
10.21%9,169 25.86%TOTAL PERFORMING LOANS 86.78% 466 89.79%80,677 0.57%
TOTAL LOANS TO CUSTOMERS 100% 3 664 100%89 846 3 92%
956
12,367
81,143
93 10
LOANS TO CUSTOMERS - AS AT 30 JUNE 2013GROSS EXPOSURE IMPAIRMENT CARRYING AMOUNT COVERAGE
TOTAL LOANS TO CUSTOMERS 100% 3,664 100%89,846 3.92%93,510
GROSS EXPOSURE IMPAIRMENT LOSSES € mln
NPLs (Sofferenze) 5.88% 2,331IMPAIRED LOANS (Incagli) 4.90% 654
€ mln %* CARRYING AMOUNT
3.56%3,249 41.78%4.38%3,994 14.07%
COVERAGE RATIO %
5,5804 648
€ mln %*
IMPAIRED LOANS (Incagli) 4.90% 654RESTRUCTURED LOANS 0.73% 100PAST DUE 0.97% 30
TOTAL DETERIORATED LOANS 12.48% 3,115
4.38%3,994 14.07%0.65%591 14.45%0.97%891 3.23%
9.56%8,725 26.31%
4,648691921
11,840TOTAL PERFORMING LOANS 87.52% 468 90.44%82,544 0.56%
TOTAL LOANS TO CUSTOMERS 100% 3,583 100%91,269 3.78%
83,012
94,852
22* As a percentage of total loans
9M13 non-recurring items: detailAnnex 7
Post tax contribution of non-recurring items to net profit of the period (in € mln)
2013Disposal of
equity stakes (mainly Intesa
Impairment losses on AFS stakes and
collective
Earn out from previous equity stake disposal
Write-off of G.E.C. Spa investment
Income from repurchase of
financial
Loss from disposal of equity
i
Total impact of non-recurring
i
Normalised Net Profit
Stated Net Profit( y
Sanpaolo)collective
investment unitsstake disposal (Cerved Group)
Spa investment financial liabilities (EMTN) investment items
Net Profit Profit
1Q13 12.0 (6.0) 1.4 7.4 19.1 26.5
2Q13 1.7 (7.1) (1.3) (6.7) 33.2 26.5
3Q13 28.4 (4.1) 3.2 (0.5) 27.0 22.0 49.0( ) ( )
9M13 42.1 (17.2) 1.4 (1.3) 3.2 (0.5) 27.7 74.3 101.9
P&L reference line
Net result from finance
Net impairment losses on financial
assets and liabilities
Net result from finance
Net impairment losses on financial
assets and net provisions for risks
and charges
Net result from finance
Loss from disposal of equity
investments
(A) (B) (A+B)
2012Disposal of
equity stakes (mainly ARCA)
Staff leaving incentives
Tier 1 tender offer capital gain
Impact on taxes from fiscal regulations
Total impact of non-recurring
items
Normalised Net Profit
Stated Net Profit
Impairment losses on AFS stakes and collective investment units
(mainly Intesa Sanpaolo)
9M12 9.2 (7.9) 15.0 70.5 42.4 180.3 222.8
P&L reference line
Net result from finance and
fit f
Charges for exit incentives
Net result from finance
Taxes on income for the period
(C) (D) (C+D)Net impairment losses on financial assets and liabilities
(44.3)
23
profit from
Indirect Funding EvolutionAnnex 8
In bln€ Sept '12 Dec '12 June '13 Sept '13 Sept '13 vs. June '13
26.6 26.8 27.3 27.8 1.9% AUM (excl.bancassurance)
11.4 11.3 11.4 11.6 1.1%
32.7 32.1 30.2 30.7 1.7%
70 7 70 2 68 9 70 1 1 7%Total indirect funding
( )
BancassuranceAUC
Mix of AuM: breakdown by fund type in UBI Pramerica
70.7 70.2 68.9 70.1 1.7% Total indirect funding
Mix of AuM: breakdown by fund type in UBI Pramerica
30 June 2013 30 Sept 2013
Balanced11%
Bond62%
Balanced14% Bond
59%
Equity13%
CashFlexible
Equity13%
CashFlexible
3%Cash11%
3% Cash11%
3%
24
Source: Assogestioni’s “PATRIMONIO GESTITO*” aggregate
* Customers assets managed to which assets received for management under a mandate from other managers are added and from which assetsentrusted under mandate to other managers are subtracted. With reference to UBI Pramerica, as from June ‘12 Assogestioni includes again in thisaggregate the amounts managed by third parties, i.e. approx. € 4.8 bln managed by Prudential