the transformation of transportation towards zero ...€¦ · our approach – “the...
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Alberto Ayala, Ph.D., M.S.E.Air Pollution Control Officer/Executive Director, Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District
Adjunct Professor, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, West Virginia University
Former Deputy Executive Officer, California Air Resources Board
The transformation of transportation towards zero-emission electrification:
La experiencia (+30 años) en California
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Primero lo primero…..Muchas felicidades por su seriedad, liderazgo, y vision a nivel nacional….lo que nos falta al momento a nosotros
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Our approach – “the nation-state”
• Largest U.S. State - ~39 million Californians
• ~25 million vehicles
• ~1.5 million diesel engines
• ~5th largest world economy
• ~1.7 million annual new car sales
• Most polluted air in the US
• Unique ability under federal law to set own environmental standards
• Other US states can follow
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The transformation of transportation
• Electricity and hydrogen as transportation fuels
• Coordinated policies: regulatory requirements for fuels and vehicle emissions, investor-owned and publicly-owned utilities, zero emission vehicle mandates, incentives
• Balance of “carrots and sticks” –balance de politicas de suministro y demanda de vehiculos y energia
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Clean Air and Climate Action on Sustainable Transportation Energy
• Advancing on some of the most progressive state energy policy in the US
• 100% renewable energy and carbon neutrality by 2045
• State law* calls on electric utilities to help electrify transportation
• “We are doing our part”: commitment to go above and beyond fulfillment of Paris Climate Agreement
• Full electrification of the transportation sector
• Electrification of built environment
*Senate Bill 350 (Clean Energy and Pollution Reduction Act of 2015)
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Regions are stepping up to challenge
• Regions committing to cut air and climate pollution
• Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD)
• Carbon neutrality in 2040• $7 billion investment for
renewable energy• Moving towards electrification of
transportation and built environment
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Policy drivers for actionThe need for air and climate pollution reductions
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“We don’t know a planet like this”
Source: www.commondreams.org
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Transportation Electrification:The Key to Achieving Clean Air and Climate Change
Protection Goals
Commercial10%
Electric Power21%
Residential16%
Industrial5%
Transportation48%
2012 Section 177 ZEV State CO2 Emissions Source: EIA
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11
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Pe
ak 1
-ho
ur
Ozo
ne
Le
vel (
pp
m) Los Angeles
Sacramento Valley San
Joaquin Valley
Bay Area
1-hour Ozone NAAQS (revoked)
Peak Ozone Levels decline
0
5
10
15
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25
30
35
1999 2004 2009 2014A
nn
ual
Ave
rage
PM
2.5
Le
vel (
µg/
m3
)
Los Angeles
Sacramento Valley
Bay Area
San Joaquin Valley
Annual PM2.5 NAAQS
Annual average PM2.5 levels drop
El progreso hacia la calidad del aire que cumplecon la normativa para proteger la salud
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Progress on environmental protection and the economy
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Widespread Air Pollution still Prevalent Today
• Ozone and short-term particle pollution worsen in many cities
• 140+ million people live in areas where air quality does not meet health-based national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS)
• Climate change erodes progress on clean air • California still has many of most polluted cities
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Supply-side: clear and strong regulatory policies
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The California Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate:“The giant leap for electrification of transportation”
• The most consequential footnote ever written
• 1990 - Initial ZEV requirement located within LEV I as a footnote:
“While meeting the fleet average standards, each manufacturer’s sales fleet shall be composed of at least 2% ZEVs in the model years 1998 through 2000, 5% ZEVs in 2001 and 2002 and 10% ZEVs in 2003 and subsequent.”
Most important regulatory requirement
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SAE INTERNATIONAL
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0.12
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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
PC, LDT1
75%Lower
Limites de Emisions Promedios a Flota (Fleet Average Emission Standards)
Model Year
NM
OG
+NO
x(g
/mi)
California = el epicentrode la resistencia
normativa para emisiones GHG y contaminantescriterio de vehiculos ligeros hasta modelo 2025
100
150
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350
2010 2015 2020 2025
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(gC
O2
e/m
i)
Model year
Truck
Combined light duty
Car
Previous rule Proposed rulemaking
34%
Advanced Clean Cars
Pavley I Stds
Emisiones Criterio Emisiones GHG
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Clear and strong regulatory policy –existing vehicle standards and the ZEV Mandate
LEVCriteria
Air Quality Improvements
LEVGHG
Greenhouse Gas Reductions
ZEVTechnology
Advancement
~166 gCO2e/mile by 2025 (~34% reduction)
~15% of all new car sales (adding to ~1.5M ZEVs)
30 mg/mile NMOG+NOxby 2025 (~75% reduction)
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California’s commitment to electrification of the light-duty sector
2020
1m ZEVs
2050
100% ZEVnew sales
2025 1.5m
ZEVs(15% new sales)
2030
5m ZEVs
ZEV = zero emission vehicle (fuel cell electric, battery electric, plug-in hybrid)
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Electrons and H2 molecules - the “no compromise, cheat-free” alternative to petroleum combustion
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ZEV Infrastructure Critical to Market Development
Public/private investment for 100 hydrogen fueling stations
Utilities, government, private sector deploying charging
infrastructure
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The power of a multi-state coalition for ZEVs
since 2018 elections
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California, U.S., and Global ZEV Markets
Source: ICCT and EV Volumes, from CARB presentation 7/25/19
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Escandalo de Volkswagen catalizando el interesglobal por vehiculos electricos
“sooner or later the country will have to ban diesel cars” Angela Merkel, German Chancellor
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Electrification of Heavy-Duty Vehicles
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26
Catenary Hybrids
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles
Battery electric solutions
Zero and near-zero emission opportunities in the heavy-duty and other sectors
Hydrogen Switcher Locomotive
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California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard
• Requerimiento a los provedores de combustibles para el transporte
• Banco de creditos• Tradeable mechanisms• Beneficio directo a provedores de
infraestructura para carga vehiculos o estaciones de suministro de hidrogeno
• Generadores de energia electricapueden participar
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Demand-side: strategic investments in technology/fuel solutions
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California/Quebe Cap and Trade Program
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Public investment in zero and near zero
technologies
LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLE SECTOR INVESTMENTS
HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE SECTOR INVESTMENTS
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Are we really all in?….we seem to be very conflicted
“since the Paris agreement, bank financing continues to be aligned with
climate disaster”
“demand for oil is rising”
U.S.EIA, 2018 Energy Outlook
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And then…of course…there is ChinaAs China goes on electrification of transport, so does the world
Major focus on future mobility
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Avanzando Vision Futura Mobilidad y Revoluciones en Transporte
Preparing for revolution and evolution