the territory’s population, economy and labour force: trends and challenges professor tony barnes...
TRANSCRIPT
The Territory’s Population, Economy and Labour Force: Trends and Challenges
Professor Tony Barnes
Dr Sarah Rummery
Northern Territory Treasury and
Charles Darwin University
Population Basics
Key population characteristics
Source: ABS Cat nos 3101.0 and 4705.0
Northern Territory Australia
Population* 212 551 20 851 997% of Australian total 1.0 -Median Age (yrs) 30.9 36.6% Indigenous 31.6 2.5
*ABS December qtr 2006 preliminary estimate
Age distribution of Territory and Australian populations
10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Northern Territory June 2006 Australia June 2006
% of Population
Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS Cat no. 3201.0
Age distribution of Territory Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, 2006
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
0-4
10~14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Indigenous June 2006 Non-Indigenous June 2006% of Population
Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS Cat no. 3201.0
Highest level of school education completed (adult resident in the Northern Territory)
≤ Grade 9
≥ Grade 10
Indigenous Territorians 60 % 40 %Non-Indigenous Territorians
11 % 89 %
Source: ABS 2006 Census of Population and Housing
Post‑School Qualifications of the Territory’s adult population, 2001
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
PostgraduateDegree
Graduate Diplomaand Graduate
Certificate
Bachelor Degree Advanced Diplomaand Diploma
Certificate Inadequatelydescribed
No qualification
Indigenous
Non-Indigenous
per cent
Source: ABS 2001 Census of Population and Housing
Percentage of population living in households of different sizes (occupied dwelling sin the Territory)
Median household income range
Indigenous households *$800 – 999
Other‑households $1000 ‑ 1399
Number of occupants in dwelling
1-2 3-5 6 or more
Indigenous households * 10% 32% 58%
Other households34% 52% 14%
* Indigenous household: at least one resident is Indigenous Source: ABS 2006 Census of Population and Housing
* Indigenous household: at least one resident is Indigenous Source: ABS 2006 Census of Population and Housing
Occupational distribution of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Territorians residing in Darwin
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1
Man
ager
s &
Adm
inis
trat
ors
2
Pro
fess
iona
ls
3
Ass
ocia
teP
rofe
ssio
nals
4
Tra
desp
erso
ns &
Rel
ated
Wor
kers
5
Adv
ance
dC
leric
al &
Ser
vice
Wkr
s
6
Int
Cle
rical
,Sal
es,S
ervi
ceW
krs
7
Int P
rodu
ctio
n &
Tra
nspo
rt W
krs
8
Ele
mC
leric
al,S
ales
,Ser
vice
Wkr
s
9
Lab
oure
rs &
Rel
ated
Wor
kers
0
Inad
equa
tely
desc
ribed
&
Not
sta
ted
Non-Indigenous
Indigenous
Per cent
Northern Territory Economy
Territory and Australian Gross State Product (chain volume measure, annual percentage change)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07e 08f
Year ended June
%
NT
Australia
e: estimate; f: forecastSource: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS Cat. No. 5206.0, 5220.0
Industry Proportions of GSP and GDP, 2000-01 to 2005-06
0
5
10
15
20
25
A
gric
ultu
re
M
inin
g
M
anuf
actu
ring
U
tiliti
es
C
onst
ruct
ion
R
etai
l &W
/sal
e T
rade
Acc
om, c
afes
& r
est.
T
rans
port
&C
omm
.
Fin
ance
&in
sura
nce
Pro
pert
y &
bus.
G
ovt A
dmin
& D
ef.
H
ealth
&E
du.
Cul
tura
l &re
c.se
rvic
es
Per
sona
l &ot
her
O
wne
rshi
pof
dw
ellin
gs
Northern Territory Australia
%
Source: ABS Cat. No. 5220.0
Territory Employment and GSP proportions, 2001-02 to 2005-06
0
5
10
15
20
25
Agr
icul
.,F
ores
t & F
ish
Min
ing
Man
ufac
turin
g
Util
ities
Con
stru
ctio
n
Ret
ail a
ndW
/sal
e T
rade
Acc
om.,
Caf
es&
Res
t.
Tra
nspo
rt a
ndC
omm
.
Fin
ance
and
Insu
ranc
e
Pro
pert
y an
dB
us. S
ervi
ces
Gov
t Adm
inan
d D
ef.
Hea
lth a
ndE
du.
Cul
t. an
d R
ecS
ervi
ces
Per
sona
l &ot
her
GSP Employment
%
Source: ABS Cat. Nos. 5220.0, 6291.0.55.003
Territory Merchandise Exports by Major Group (moving annual total)
0
1
2
3
4
5
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07e 08f
Mineral Ores
Live Cattle
Mineral Fuels
Total
$ B
Year ended June
Other *
e: estimate; f: forecastSource: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS data service 5432.0.65.001* Other ‘includes; beverages and tobacco, manufactured goods, machinery and equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles
Territory Merchandise Export by Region of Destination and Commodity, 2001-02 to2005-06, five year average
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Other
Middle East
Europe
Japan
North America
South East Asia
North East Asia*
Mineral Fuels Mineral Ores Cattle Other^
5.9%
9.0%
0.8%
33.8%
12.5%
32.4%
$ M
5.6%
* excluding Japan^ Other is primarily alumina and may also include; beverages and tobacco, manufactured goods, machinery and equipmentand miscellaneous manufactured articles.Source: ABS data service 5432.0.65.001
Territory Merchandise Imports by Major Group (moving annual total)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07e 08fYear ended June
Mineral fuels
Total
Machinery and transport equipment
$ B
Manufactured
Other
e: estimate; f: forecastSource: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS data service 5432.0.65.001
Territory Merchandise Import by Region of Origin and Commodity, 2001-02 to 2005-06, five year average
0 100 200 300 400 500
Other
North East Asia*
North America
Japan
Middle East
Europe
South East Asia
Mineral FuelsManufactured GoodsMachinery and Transport EquipmentOther^
$ M
7.9%
9.9%
9.5%
7.4%
30.3%
30.5%
4.5%
^ Other ‘includes; beverages and tobacco, food and live animals, crude materials, chemicals and related products, animal and vegetable oils and unclassified commoditiesSource: ABS data service 5432.0.65.001
Employment and Labour Force
85
90
95
100
105
110
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
85
90
95
100
105
110
Year ended June
Thousand
Original
Thousand
Trend
Territory Employment (level)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0
2
4
6
8
10Per cent
Year ended June
Northern Territory Original
Australian Trend
Per cent
Northern Territory Trend
Unemployment Rate
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year ended December
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Australia (RHS)
Northern Territory (LHS)
Number ('000)
Number ('000)
Indigenous Employment (level) 2002 - 2006
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year ended December
Northern Territory
Australia
per cent
Indigenous Unemployment rate 2002 - 2006
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year ended December
per cent
Australia
Northern Territory
Indigenous Labour force participation rate 2002 -2006
Northern Territory Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders ‘not in the labour force’
YearNot in the labour force
('000)% change
2002 16.42003 18.7 14%2004 20.9 12%2005 23.5 12%2006 22.3 -5%
Population change and consequences
Territory and Australian Population Growth 1981 – 2007 (number)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
e20
07f
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Northern Territory Australia
no. ('000) no. ('000)
Source: NT Treasury; ABS Catalogue no. 3101.0
Territory and Australian Population Growth 1981 – 2007 (rate)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07f
per cent
Northern Territory
Australia
Footnotes: f - forecastSource: NT Treasury; ABS Catalogue no. 3101.0
Territory Population Growth by Component
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05
Natural Increase
Total Growth
Net Interstate Migration
Source: ABS Catalogue no. 3101.0
Age Distribution of Territory Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, 1995 and 2005
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Northern Territory June 1995 Northern Territory June 2005Australia June 1995 Australia June 2005
Source: ABS Catalogue no. 3201.0
Age Distribution of Territory Indigenous and non-Indigenous Populations, 1996 - 2005
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
Indigenous June 1996 Indigenous June 2005Non-Indigenous June 1996 Non-Indigenous June 2005
Source: ABS Cat no. 3201.0 and 3238.0
Summary measures of ageing, 1996 - 2005
Median Age
1996 2005Australia 34 36.5Northern Territory 27.8 30.3NT Indigenous 20.6 22.5NT Non-Indigenous 29.5 33.5
Proportion aged 65 and over (%)
Australia 11.0 13.1Northern Territory 3.2 4.3NT Indigenous 2.8 2.9NT Non-Indigenous 3.4 4.8
Summary Measures of Ageing, 1996, 2005 and 2015
Median Age
1996 2005 2015Australia 34.0 36.5 38.4Northern Territory 27.8 30.3 31.1NT Indigenous 20.6 22.5 24.5NT Non-Indigenous 29.5 33.5 33.8
Proportion aged 65 and over (%)
Australia 11.0 13.1 16.0Northern Territory 3.2 4.3 6.0NT Indigenous 2.8 2.9 3.5NT Non-Indigenous 3.4 4.8 7.0
Annual Territory Interstate Migration Flows
8
12
16
20
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Inflow
Outflow
Year ended June
number (000)
Source: ABS Cat no 3101.0
Interstate Migration Probabilities by Age
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
age
in-m
igra
tio
n r
atio
1990-91
2000-01
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
age
in-m
igra
tio
n r
atio
1990-91
2000-01
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
age
in-m
igra
tio
n r
atio
1990-91
2000-01
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
age
in-m
igra
tio
n r
atio
1990-91
2000-01
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0 10
20 30
40
50 60
70
age
ou
t-m
igra
tio
n p
rob
abili
ty
1990-912000-01
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0 10
20 30
40
50 60
70
age
ou
t-m
igra
tio
n p
rob
abili
ty
1990-912000-01
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
age
ou
t-m
igra
tio
n p
rob
abili
ty
1990-91
2000-01
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
age
ou
t-m
igra
tio
n p
rob
abili
ty
1990-91
2000-01
2006
14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
0~4 5~9
10~1415~1920~2425~2930~3435~3940~4445~4950~5455~5960~6465~6970~7475~7980~8485+
Indigenous Non-Indigenous
no.
Age Group2001
Indigenous Non-Indigenous
1996
Indigenous Non-Indigenous
1991
Indigenous Non-Indigenous
1986
Indigenous Non-Indigenous
1981
Indigenous Non-Indigenous
1976
Indigenous Non-Indigenous
1971
Indigenous Non-Indigenous
35 years of changing Territory populations
1971
14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
0~4 5~9
10~1415~1920~2425~2930~3435~3940~4445~4950~5455~5960~6465~6970~7475~7980~8485+
Indigenous Non-Indigenous
no.
Age Group1981
14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
0~4 5~9
10~1415~1920~2425~2930~3435~3940~4445~4950~5455~5960~6465~6970~7475~7980~8485+
Indigenous Non-Indigenous
no.
Age Group
1991
14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
0~4 5~9
10~1415~1920~2425~2930~3435~3940~4445~4950~5455~5960~6465~6970~7475~7980~8485+
Indigenous Non-Indigenous
no.
Age Group
2001
14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
0~4 5~9
10~1415~1920~2425~2930~3435~3940~4445~4950~5455~5960~6465~6970~7475~7980~8485+
Indigenous Non-Indigenous
no.
Age Group
Northern Territory Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, 1971-2001
Changes to the Territory Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, 1971-2001
Source: Condon JR, Barnes T, Cunningham J, Smith L. 2004. Demographic characteristics and trends of Northern Territory Indigenous population, 1996 to 2001. CRC for Aboriginal Health, Darwin.
Strategies for maintaining future Territory workforce
• A strategy to improve recruitment and retention of interstate and overseas migrants particularly in the 20-39 year age range
• A strategy to retain older working Territorians for longer in the local workforce rather than retiring
• A strategy for improving the education and skill levels of the Territory’s Indigenous population and as such improving their prospects of successfully entering the Territory workforce.