the swedish labour market:

The Swedish Public Employment Service and Regional Labour Market Monitoring

Josef LannemyrVictor Tanaka14 september 2010

The Swedish labour market:

Brief historical background

From poor agrarian country to rich indusrialized nation • Between 1850 and 1970 Sweden had the

highest economic growth rate in the world (next to Japan)

• 1850 -1950:– Rationalizations of agricultural methods– Public school reform 1842– Rapid population growth– City enlargements– The economic post – war boom

The Swedish Model:

• A large privately owned industrial sector

• A large public sector financed by taxes

• A large trade union movement

• The state playing an active role in labour market policies

• Ambitions to achieve an even distribution of income and wealth

• ”The middle way”

1950s to 60s – The golden age

• 1960-65 yearly GDP-growth average of 5.3 percent and producitivity growth average of 5.6 percent

• Restructuring model with active labour market policy (Rehn-Meidner)

• Low unemployment, around 2 percent

Percent

19611963

19651967

19691971

19731975

19771979

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Source: EcoWin, SPES

line = historical avarage

GDP-growth in Sweden1961-2009, forecast 2010-2011

Structrual change in the labour market• Problems became obvious during oil crisis

1973-74• Cost crisis – decreased competitiveness• (shipyard, textile, steel)• Internationally dependent => dramatic shifts

1990s A bursting financial bubble• The swedish financial crisis• 80s deregulation of the financial market –

especially loan restrictions• Rapid increase in lending focusing on the real

estate sector• Public finances under strain• Mass unemployment (in a swedish perspective)• OECD – average since 1993

Percent

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Source: Statistics Sweden, trended

Umemployment, age 16-64January 1987 - August 2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Hungary i

Sweden i

Unemployment rate, Sweden and Hungary 1991-2009 (OECD, harmonised

unemployment rates, ILO defintion)

90s and 2000s

• EU membership 1995

• Dot-com buble 2000 – mild downturn

• Death of the Swedish model?

– Large public sector

– High income taxes

– Small business sector (than EU and OECD average)

Present situation

• Sweden has an unemployment rate that is below EU-27.

• During the last couple of years Sweden has had an unemployment rate at about 6 percent.

• However, during 2009 the unemployment rate rose to over 8 percent, largely because of the international economic recession

• New Government

Statistical snapshots

Percent

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

WomenMen

Source: Statistics Sweden, trended

Umemployment, age 16-64January 1987 - August 2010

Unemployment in EU

Source: EU LFS data

EU. July 2010, Harmonized unemployment rate ; Total

Youth unemployment in EU

Source: EU LFS data

EU. July 2010, Harmonized unemployment rate - age class 15-24; Total

Year

Number of persons

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

20162017

20182019

202095000

100000

105000

110000

115000

120000

125000

130000

Outflow of retired personsInflow of young persons

Source: PES, Statistics Sweden

Inflow of young persons and outflow of retired persons from labour market

Number of persons

19601965

19701975

19801985

19901995

20002005

20080

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

Källa: Statistics Sweden

Immigration to Sweden

Age

Share of population

2021

2223

2425

2627

2829

3031

3233

3435

3637

3839

4041

4243

4445

4647

4849

5051

5253

5455

5657

5859

6061

6263

6420

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Born in foreign countriesBorn in Sweden

Source: PES

Employment in single year classes

Mission

The Swedish Public Employment Service

Mission:

• Improve the functioning of the labour market (no distortion of competition)


Mission:


• Give priority to weak groups


Mission:



• Equal service across the country


Mission:



• Equal service across the country

• Promote geographic and professional mobility


Mission (continued):

• Promote diversity/plurality and work against discrimination


In numbers


In numbers:

• Government budget for Labour market of almost 10 000 million USD


In numbers:

• Government budget for Labour market of almost 10 000 million USD, of which about

– 8,5 % on management and administration costs;


In numbers:



– 53,5 % on benefits;


High benefits and compensation rates

In numbers:




– 10,5 % on job market programs; and


In numbers:




– 10,5 % on job market programs; and

– 23,1 % on employment subsidies.


Public expenditure on labour market policy

In numbers (continued):

• More than 12 000 employees




• 30 % of all vacancies





• 177 000 in job market programs (3,6 %)





• 177 000 in job market programs (3,6 %)

• 224 000 unemployed (4,6 %)


The Swedish Public Employment service:

The forecasting system

Purpose



Purpose:

• From the beginning to satisfy regional needs (employers)



Purpose:


• Add value to the whole organisation



Purpose:


• Add value to the whole organisation

• ”Targeted” groups: unemployed, other job seekers, parliament, universities, etc.



Purpose (continued):

• Provide job market information




• Provide job market information in order to

– improve matching (employment offices)






– craft labour market policies







– plan labour market programs








– plan budget








– plan budget

– make individual choices (job seekers)



Method:

• Questionnaries



Method:

• Questionnaries

• Private sector: representative sample (Statistics Sweden; stratified according to counties, industry, and workplace-size)



Method:

• Questionnaries


• Public sector: full coverage



Method:

• Questionnaries


• Public sector: full coverage

• Internal information system



Method (continued):

• International, national and regional monitoring



The Öresund region:

Skåne

Zealand

-3.7 million -20 000 commuters

Process



Process:

• Sep/Mar:– Interviews with employers

– Results registered through internet application



Process:



• Nov/May:– Analysis and writing (regional and national)



Process:



• Nov/May:– Analysis and writing (regional and national)

• Dec/Jun:– Press release and published reports



Output:

• Regional labour market outlooks

• National labour market outlook



Output:

• Regional labour market outlooks

• National labour market outlook

• Occupational forecasts (“Yrkeskompassen”)

– Short term outlooks

– Long term outlooks



Example: Carpenter

Yrkeskompassen

Forecasting projects in…

…Bulgaria, Belarus, China, Croatia, Cyprus, Romania, Malta, countries in northern Africa, amongst others…



Employment Office:......................................................... Contact: ...................................................................

Basic information Workplace:....................................................................... Phone:...................................................................... Address: ........................................................................... Fax:..........................................................................

Postal address:.................................................................. E-mail:.....................................................................

Workplace no:.................................................................. Type of enterprise: ..................................................

Contact: ............................................................................ SNI code:.................................................................

Market developments

1. Has there been or do you expect any change in demand for your products/ services? (Disregard seasonal fluctuations. Put a cross in the relevant box.)

Decreased Unchanged Increased

In the past 6 months

In the next 6 months

6-12 months ahead

Capacity utilisation

2. By how much can your workplace increase production (industry), alternatively sales of products and services (private services)? (Put a cross in the relevant box)

Percentage

0 1-5 6-10 11-20 21-30 more

Before you need to invest in premises/machinery/ equipmentBefore you need to increase the workforce by hiring new staff

Employment and recruitment

3. Number of employees at your workplace State the number of persons employed and estimate your future employment requirement All employees (conditional tenure + temporary staff, excluding workers paid by the hour) One year ago: ................ Current: ............... One year ahead: ................. Two years ahead: .................

(Estimate the approximate number based on your knowledge of your enterprise and line of business/industry)

4a. Number of staff you expect to hire and staff turnover at your workplace (permanent

jobs + temporary posts, excl. employed by the hour) but not seasonal and holiday workers which must be entered separately in Question 4b

State the number of persons and tell us what your expectations are for the future

a) Number of employees one year ago: ................ same number as in Question 3

b) Number who retired/left in the past year: ................ minus

c) Number hired in the past year: ................ plus

d) Number of employees currently: ................ current, a – b + c = d = same number as in Q 3

e) Number expected to retire/leave in coming year: ................ minus

f) Number you expect to hire in coming year: ................ plus

g) Number of employees one year ahead: ................ one year ahead, d – e + f = g = same number as Q 3

4b. Number of seasonal and holiday workers at your workplace (e.g. in tourism and holiday work for young persons)

State the number of persons and tell us what your expectations are for the future Total in past 12-month period Total in coming12-month period

Number of staff hired: ................................. Number of staff you expect to hire: ...................................

5. Within which occupations will you need to hire staff in the coming year?

ISCO-code Occupation Number of persons Qualification requirements (to be filled in by EO/CLB) Trained/ Work skilled experience

......................... .................................... ...................... .........................................

......................... .................................... ...................... .........................................

......................... .................................... ...................... .........................................

......................... .................................... ...................... .........................................

......................... .................................... ...................... .........................................

......................... .......................................... ...................... .........................................

Shortage of labour 6a. Shortage of labour when recruiting

1) Have you encountered any shortage of labour when recruiting during the last 6 months?

(Mark one alternative with a cross)

Yes

No

2) If Yes, state the number of vacancies where you have encountered a shortage ..................................................... of which, number of vacancies that you have not succeeded in filling

6b. Shortage of labour that has led you not even to try to recruit (hidden shortage)

1) Have you during the last 6 months refrained from trying to recruit because of shortage of qualified labour? (Mark one alternative with a cross)

Yes

No

If No to both questions 6a and 6b, go to Question 8

2) If Yes, State the number of vacancies for which you have not even tried to recruit owing to shortage of qualified labour. .................................

6c. Shortage of labour in particular occupations

Number of Total of which Has the AMSYK occupation (state number) requiring requiring shortage (to be completed vacancies training occupation prevented by Af/Lan) (state number) experience expansion of (state number) workplace (mark with a cross) ......................... .................... .................... ...................... ........................ ......................... .................... .................... ...................... ........................ ......................... .................... .................... ...................... ........................ ......................... .................... .................... ...................... ........................ ......................... .................... .................... ...................... ........................ ......................... .................... .................... ...................... ........................

7a. How was hiring affected by the labour shortage? (Put a cross in the box by more than one alternative if relevant)

We were unable to hire staff

It took longer than normal to hire

We lowered our requirements in respect of education/training/qualifications/skills

We lowered our requirements in respect of experience in the occupation

We lowered our requirements in respect of social qualifications and skills

We recruited staff abroad

We offered higher pay

We offered other benefits

Other measures

7b. What consequences did the labour shortage have for your workplace? (Put a cross in the box by more than one alternative if relevant)

We hired in staff from an agency

Existing staff had to work more

Internal training given to existing staff

We bought in services (including outsourcing production)

We had to turn down orders

Production/service decreased

Planned expansion was postponed

We considered moving all or some of our production abroad

The labour shortage had no consequences

8. Can you quantify by how much the average pay (per employee) has increased in the past

year? (Put a cross by the percentage alternative that matches each group)

Percentage

Less than 1

1 - <2 2 - <3 3 - <4 4 - <5 5 - <6 6 - <77 or more

In total at workplace

LO area or similar

TCO and SACO areas or similar

Space for your own notes:...........................................................................................

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Thank you for your participation!

1 b) Estimation of the labour market situation for different occupations

Occupational area

Nr

OccupationLarge

surplusSurplus Balance Shortage

Large shortage

Science, 1 Physicists

technology 2 Meteorologist

and computing 3 Chemist

4 Geologist, Geophysicist etc

5 Mathematician

6 Statistician

7

Computer programmer, Computer systems designer, System architect, Computer engineer

8 Programmer, computing

9 IT-strategist, IT-analyst

10

Computer technologist (Network technician)

11 PC-technician

12 Architect, Town planner

13 Civil engineer (construction)

14

Engineer, Master of engineering, electrical power

the swedish labour market:

Documents

swedish labour market

financial market

strainmass unemployment

labour marketproblems

harmonised unemployment

highest economic growth

weak groupsequal service

eu lfs dataeu