The Swedish Energy Foresight

Energy supply and use in Sweden 2001, TWh

Use of electricity in Sweden 1970–2001

Electricity production in Sweden 1970–2001

Energy supplies to district heating 1970–2001

Swedish imports of crude oil and petroleum products, 1972–2001 by country of origin (million tonnes, net)

Not just another energy study • Energy is a resource for sustainable development – not a

problem

• Focus on the reduction of the negative effects of energy use – not on the use of energy

• International developments are important

• Energy does not shape society – energy systems are shaped by society

• Transport, industry and buildings – integrated parts in the energy system

Sustainable development – not just environment

Source: UN Global Compact

A scenario approach • Scenarios are tools for building different conceivable future

energy systems – not forecasts of the future.

• Scenarios should provide provoking, credible and relevant

visions, but not necessarily the most likely or desirable

ones.

• Scenarios should take into consideration the deep currents

driving the development of energy systems – not merely

individual events.

Organization • System foresight panel

• User foresight panel

• Structure foresight panel

• Long-term foresight panel

• Expert teams on different energy sources

Deliverables • A summary report

• Panel reports

• Factual reports

• A process

Energy demand • Major energy savings in buildings – but more buildings to

heat or cool

• More efficient office and household appliances – but more

appliances in need of electricity

• Spread of integrated transport solutions and better

logistics – but an increased demand of transport

• Improved efficiency in industrial processes – but an

annual increase in production

Two scenarios • Climate in focus

• Climate - one factor among others

Time

Energy

Solar energyHydrogen

Natural gasClean coal

New nuclear

Oil & coalNuclear

Natural gas, clean coal and new nuclear - a bridge to a solar and hydrogen society

Climate in focus – characteristics • Internationally harmonized measures to reduce

emissions

• More efficient economic measures

• R&D and new infrastructures

• Emphasis on energy efficiency

• Higher energy prices

Energy supply in Sweden 2050for the scenario Climate in focus?• Hydro as today

• Solar-based electricity other than hydro (e.g. bio, wind, solar cells)

and hydrogen fuel cells have a considerable and growing market

share

• Existing nuclear reactors have been partly replaced after 60 years

of operation. A new generation of nuclear technology offers

improved safety and a bridge to a solar and hydrogen society.

• A majority of vehicles have fuel cells with hydrogen produced from

natural gas with carbon sequestration and from renewable energy.

• Heating with bio, heat pumps and electricity (low energy buildings)

Climate a factor among others

– characteristics • Limited harmonisation

• Focus on the local environment rather than on the global

• Emphasis on local production of heat and electricity

• Voluntary market-oriented actions from industry

Energy supply in Sweden 2050 for Climate - one factor among others?• Hydro as today

• Solar-based electricity other than hydro (e.g. bio, wind, solar cells) has a limited but growing market share

• Existing nuclear reactors phased out after 40 years of operation and replaced by electricity from natural gas.

• A majority of vehicles use fossil fuels, liquid and natural gas fuels from natural gas where available. Only zero emission cars are allowed in central parts of urban areas.

• Heating using bio, natural gas, heat pumps and electricity (low energy buildings).

Priority questions in the two scenarios• The level and composition of energy demand?

• Replacement of the existing nuclear reactors?

• Replacement/reduction of oil-derived fuels for transport?

Industry in 2020

Industry profile

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Knowledge content (”price per kilo”)

Export share %

Sweden:

Process development, Swedish pulp mill

Energy use in Industry

• Solar collectors

• Insulation and windows

• Efficient heating and ventilation

systems

• Individual metering of heat and water

Result is 40% reduction of heating requirements.

• Solar collectors

• Insulation and windows

• Efficient ventilation. Heat exchanger

85% efficiency.

• Heating from electric appliances

Result is 50% reduction of energy use without additional building costs.

Energy in buildings 2020

Energy in buildings 2020 Energy use one-family houses

Energy use in the building sector

Transportation in 2020 - hybrid vehicles in urban areas

Transportation in 2020 - availability of fuel cell vehicles

Efficiency

from well to

tank (%)

Vehicle

efficiency

(%)

Overall efficiency (%)

0 10 20 30

Gasoline

vehicles88 16

HVs (gasoline) 88 30

FCVs 58 ~50

future FCHV ~70 ~60

Efficiency of Well to Wheel

Source: Toyota trial calculations

Energy use in the Transport sector

Total use of energy in SwedenDecreased use of energy in the Residental sector will compensate for increased use in Industry and Transport

Nuclear reactors 40-60 yearsOskarshamn 1

Oskarshamn 2

Oskarshamn 3

Ringhals 1

Ringhals 2

Ringhals 3

Ringhals 4

Forsmark 1

Forsmark 2

Forsmark 3

Barsebäck 2

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Production cost new electricity 2002

Blueparts of the bars show costs after future add-ons (taxes and emission rights) and deductions ("green” certificates and wind power bonuses).

Natural gas to Europe

Separation and storage of CO2 from electricity generation(coal)

Development of total estimated cost (separation, transport and storage)

1990 2000

100

50

with further developedtechnology

EUR/ton CO2

Institutional, industrial and technical structures in 2020 Climate in focus – requires joint European actions

Climate – one factor among others – other issues surface

European co-ordination of the energy field Diverging European

development in the energy field

Level European playing field – yields an oligopoly situation – few large actors with similar business

Different playing fields – different business opportunities – multitude of actors of different size

Sweden 2020?Climate - one factor among others

• Half nuclear phased out

• Large scale introduction of natural gas

• Weak incentives for energy efficiency

• Diverging European energy market

Climate in focus

• No change in nuclear

• Limited use of natural gas

• Strong incentives for energy efficiency

• Co-ordinated European energy market

Thank you for your

attention!