the sudans and the niles
TRANSCRIPT
The Sudans and the NilesThe Sudans and the NilesAna Elisa Cascao, SIWIAna Elisa Cascao, SIWI
Addis Ababa, 11 June 2013Addis Ababa, 11 June 2013
Map: the Sudans and the NilesMap: the Sudans and the Niles
Not upstream, not downstream
but midstream
The ‘hidden’ maps: the trianglesThe ‘hidden’ maps: the triangles
Sudans: key players in the Nile hydropoliticsSudans: key players in the Nile hydropolitics
North Sudan:North Sudan: the riparian state that can utilise more Nile water resources
South Sudan:South Sudan: the riparian state can (potentially) increase the Nile water resources
King-makersKing-makers in the complex hydropolitical Nile game (multilateral, trilateral and bilateral)
North Sudan: North Sudan: the wild hydropolitical cardthe wild hydropolitical card
• Current and future uses of the Nile waters
• Water consumption:
the nexus between irrigation, livestock & energy
• Water diplomacy:
looking down (dyad) & looking up (potential)
North Sudan: the irrigation potentialNorth Sudan: the irrigation potential
North Sudan: North Sudan: the irrigation the irrigation
potentialpotential
North Sudan: the livestock potentialNorth Sudan: the livestock potential
North Sudan: North Sudan: the livestock the livestock
potentialpotential
Source: Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics (unpublished data); In Pastoralism Briefing Papers, part of UNEP Sudan Integrated Environment Project
North Sudan: current and future North Sudan: current and future hydro-economic strategy?hydro-economic strategy?
• Oil or agriculture/livestock
• Back to the breadbasket idea?• Sugar/Ethanol ambitions
• Is there water enough?
South Sudan: the new Nile riparianSouth Sudan: the new Nile riparian
• 11th Nile riparian state• Part of the two Nile regions• Prospects for agriculture, livestock & hydropower• Current and future hydro-economic strategy?• Hydropolitical positionality?
South Sudan: South Sudan: Resource-based Resource-based
developmentdevelopment
• The rise and fall of an oil economy
• Back to the basics…Agriculture and Livestock
• Trade-offs and social conflicts
• Increasing energy demands
South Sudan and the Nile in the South Sudan and the Nile in the post-independence periodpost-independence period
Alignment:
1959 Agreement or CFA?
• Foreign Policy• Negotiations• Water Allocations• Jonglei Canal
Pre and Post-Referendum NegotiationsPre and Post-Referendum Negotiations
Hydropolitical implications of South Sudan’s secession?
Nile discussions in 2 folders:
• International Agreements and
• Natural Resources
Scenarios: South Sudan vis-à-vis the NileScenarios: South Sudan vis-à-vis the Nile
South Sudan: Up the Nile, Down the Nile?South Sudan: Up the Nile, Down the Nile?
• Political and econonic calculations
• Political and economic relations with Egypt and Sudan
• Political and economic relations with African neighbours (Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and other EAC countries)
Jonglei Canal: Jonglei Canal: yes or not
(or maybe)?
Jonglei Canal: the creation of a new border?Jonglei Canal: the creation of a new border?
Jonglei Canal: a symbol of colonialism and a symbol of war
Impacts: hydrological, environmental, social, political, ...
Technical engineering or social-political engineering?
?
Jon
gle
i C
anal
Nile: the bridge between the two Sudans?Nile: the bridge between the two Sudans?
AgricultureEnergy
Hydropolitics
New book
Resource-based conflict and cooperation in South Sudan
and Gambella (Ethiopia): When Water, Land and Oil
Mix With Politics
