the spratly islands: potential for conflict in the south china sea? raul bernal constantin sabet...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Spratly Islands:Potential for Conflict in the South China Sea?
Raul BernalConstantin Sabet d’Acre
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• Location
• Location
• Location
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Our Journey
• Who wants what and why• Why it’s important• Strategic Interests of China and the
US• Potential for conflict
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Territorial Claims over the South China Seas, Part I
• The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS)
• Claims based on UNCLOS– Brunei– Malaysia
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Territorial Claims over the South China Seas, II
• Based on history– People’s Republic of China– Taiwan
• Based on mix of history and UNCLOS– Philippines– Vietnam
• Other concerned party: Indonesia
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Driving Forces of Interest
• Strategic position in terms of security
• Economic importance– Shipping lanes– Oil and gas– Fishing and manure
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Oil Flows and Transports
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Driving Forces of Interest
• Strategic position in terms of security
• Economic importance– Shipping lanes– Oil and gas– Fishing and manure
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Perceptions of China in SE Asia
• Historical mistrust of China
• Rapid change in attitudes in the past 5-10 years
• Reengagement with Southeast Asia
• Economic benefits, but many still skeptical of long-term ambitions
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China’s Conduct in the SCS
• 1974 – Paracel Islands seized
• 1992 – Territorial expansion law
• 1995 – Seizure of Mischief Reef
• 2002 – Conduct of Parties in SCS
• 2005 – Joint seismic survey
• 2010 – Chinese fishing patrols
Source: www.spratlys.org
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China’s Strategic Interests
• Access to natural resources
• Control of sea lanes
• Projection of military force
• Extended regional influenceSource: PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs
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US Strategic Interests
• Counter Chinese influence
• Security of sea lanes
• Military access
• Counterterrorism efforts
Source: US Defense Department
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Potential for US-China Conflict• US disengagement and “benign neglect” of
SE Asia
• Oil exploration by US companies
• 2001 – Spy plane incident
• 2002 – USS Bowditch
• 2009 – USNS Impeccable
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USNS Impeccable Incident• Sonar and mapping
ship operating within China’s EEZ
• Surrounded by several Chinese vessels
• Chinese submarine base at Hainan island
• US responds with Aegis Class Destroyer (USS Chung-Hoon)
Source: Jane’s Intelligence Review
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Analysis• US:
– not taking sides on sovereignty issues– but concerned with increasing Chinese influence
and military power in the region
• China:– becoming more assertive in territorial claims despite
increasing regional integration
• ASEAN:– desires closer economic ties with China– but engages the US as a hedge against Chinese
influence