the spatial distribution of identified and speculative global uranium resources · 2019-01-14 ·...

IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency

THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF IDENTIFIED AND

SPECULATIVE GLOBAL URANIUM RESOURCES

Martin Fairclough. Bill Slimmon, Mark Mihalasky, Francine Mihalasky, Laszlo

Katona, Malcolm Aranha & Jonathon Irvine

Saskatoon, Canada, 29th November 2016

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The Spatial Distribution Of Global Uranium Resources

The International Atomic Energy Agency is a United

Nations organisation with a mandate of....

“Atoms for Peace and Development”

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Peaceful uses of atoms is underpinned by security of

supply of uranium, so the IAEA provides support to

member states in all aspects of the uranium production

cycle including evaluating the global uranium

supply/demand situation

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The “Red Book” is published

every two years by the NEA-

OECD/IAEA and is the official

member state’s viewpoint on

uranium supply and demand.

It reports identified, undiscovered

and unconventional uranium

resources

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Resources: the total identified

(reasonably assured and

inferred) resources as of

beginning 2015 are:

7 641 600 tU in the highest cost

category <USD $260/kgU

(including 5 718 400tU in the

<USD $130/kgU).

This is only a 0.1% increase in

two years.

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Resources: the total

undiscovered (prognosticated

and speculative) resources

beginning 2015 are:

7 422 700 tU

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Production: World annual

uranium production decreased

by 4.1%, from 58 411 tU in 2012

to 55 975 tU as of 1 January

2015.

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Demand: as of 1 January 2015,

a total of 437 commercial

nuclear reactors were connected

to the grid requiring about 56

600 tU annually.

World nuclear capacity is

projected to grow by 11%

in the low demand case by 2035

representing 66 995 tU.

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Supply-Demand: as of 1

January 2015, world uranium

production (55 975 tU) provided

about 99% of world reactor

requirements (56 585 tU), with

the remainder supplied by

previously mined uranium (so-

called secondary sources)

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“The uranium resource base is

more than adequate to

meet projected growth

requirements to 2035”

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In recent years there have been ca. 7Mt of IR, ca. 7Mt of

SR and ca. 7Mt of unconventional resources, and t

But there are some caveats!

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Identified Resources: production capability is not

production. World production has never exceeded 89% of

reported production capability (NEA, 2006) and since

2003 has varied between 70% and 84% of full production

capability.

While there are significant stockpile inventories, there is

no guarantee that these will be accessible to all.

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Identified Resources: Historically more than 50% of

resources have never been produced (MinEx Consulting,

2010)

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Identified Resources: The average time from discovery to

development is >20 years and increasing (RB Retrospective)

All deposit and mining types, extracted from Red Book Restrospective, 2006)

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IR <$130/kgU: there is spatial inhomogeneity

Australia (*3)

Kazakhstan (*1)

Canada (*2)/Russia/China

(*production ranking)

OECE-NEA/IAEA Red Book 2016

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Identified resources: there is spatial inhomogeneity

Only 15 countries host

95% of the world’s

identified resources, 6

countries account for

90% of the world’s

production OECE-NEA/IAEA Red Book 2016

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Unconventional Resources: These include phosphates,

black shales etc where a reliable resource estimate

exists.

Development and production of unconventional resources

requires particular economic and technical conditions to

be overcome (such as by-product production, processing

challenges and logistical challenges)

NB. Kvanefjeld and Olympic Dam are now considered conventional

co-product

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Undiscovered Resources: Only 20 countries currently

report updated undiscovered resources, and none report

the basis of these figures. They are reported as in situ

(not necessarily recoverable) and have unknown

reliability.

The discovery success rate is less than 1:1000 and is

decreasing as new discoveries become deeper

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Ironically, despite current market conditions, there is a

real looming supply risk beyond the next few decades

We simply do not know how much is left and where it is!

And because unidentified resources can take >>20 years

on average to find and bring into production, we have to

start assessing (and finding) then now

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The IAEA has active integrated projects designed to

understand the lessons we can learn from the distribution

and style of known resources and apply them to future

uranium resource discovery.

Undiscovered Resources – the silver lining to the cloud.

There are ways of systematically and robustly assessing undiscovered

resources – both spatially (MPM) and quantitatively (One Level, Crustal

Abundance, Three Part Method)

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The IAEA has active integrated projects designed to

understand the lessons we can learn from the distribution

and style of known resources and apply them to future

uranium resource discovery.

The projects are undertaken via several partnerships

including SGS, USGS and others.

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IUREP

Late 1970s to early 1980s -IAEA

182 countries reviewed with National

favourability studies, orientation phase

reports and 2 summary volumes.

Excellent, but non- to semi-

quantitative, review

6.6- 14.8 MtU at < $130/kgU PLUS

3.3- 7.3 MtU in China and USSR


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IUREP1982-1983 Estimates of

Speculative Uranium Resources

(183 Countries)

Extract from Mihalasky et al, in Spatial and Quantitative Resources Assessments, IAEA TecD , in prep)

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Extract from Mihalasky et al, in Spatial and Quantitative Resources Assessments, IAEA TecD , in prep)

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We are compiling detailed deposit data (the UDEPO

database) using the IAEA deposit classifications and

models to better understand the spatial distribution of

different deposit types and their quantitative potential

using modern techniques.

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• 1. Intrusive

• 2. Granite-related

• 3. Polymetallic hematite breccia complex

• 4. Volcanic-related

• 5. Metasomatite

• 6. Metamorphite

• 7. Proterozoic unconformity

• 8. Collapse breccia pipe

• 9. Sandstone

•10. Paleo quartz-pebble conglomerate

•11. Surficial

•12. Coal-lignite

•13. Carbonate

•14. Phosphate

•15. Black shales

UDEPO Classification

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All Uranium Deposits (UDEPO ca. 2300)

Extract from Spatial and Quantitative Resources Assessments, IAEA TecDoc , in prep)


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All Sandstone Deposits (UDEPO ca. 816)


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All Sandstone Deposits


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All Occurrences (ca. 35000)


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All Occurrences (ca. 35000)


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Provinces (tracts) - incomplete


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Provinces (tracts)

SGS and GSSA 3D model 2010, with unconformity buffers (courtesy George Gouthas, Laz Katona)

Extract from World Distribution of Uranium Deposits, IAEA, in prep)

Unconformity projected to surface and modified to include mineralised fault zones (extracted from World

Uranium Provinces, IAEA, in prep.)

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Provinces (tracts) combined with spatial

prospectivity models

Wilde et al, in prep,

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Where to?

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An improved insight into the questions of “how much” and “where”

Courtesy USGS)

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An improved insight into the questions of “how much” and “where”

Courtesy USGS)

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Thanks to IAEA colleagues and consultants, Adrienne Hanly, Peter Woods, Patrice Bruneton and Michel Cuney

the spatial distribution of identified and speculative global uranium resources · 2019-01-14 ·...

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