The South China Sea tensions:

implications for global security

Subcommittee for Security and Defence (SEDE)

European Parliament

22 March 2017

South China Sea

• Strategic

• Geopolitical

• Economic • Way ahead?

South China Sea

Key recent developments:

• 2009 China’s deposition of claims at UN CLCS

• 2013 evidence of China’s island-building; PH file complaint

• 2016 PCA ruling on the PH-CN case

China’s land reclamation

Vietnam’s land reclamation

Strategic implications

Strategic implications

Strategic implications

The SCS “strategic triangle”

• China’s announced

build up on

Scarborough Shoal

• Possibility of

militarisation

• Full strategic control

(incl. eventual

ADIZ)

900 km

700 km

650 km

China’s ‘hybrid’ approach to the SCS

Use of non-conventional methods • Use of civilian elements: coast guards,

fishing fleet, SOA, etc.

• Administrative inclusion; development of

tourism; scientific cooperation

• ‘Salami-slicing’ > fait accompli

Use of economic & diplomatic

pressure

• Bilateral negotiations with claimants

• Use of trade and investment incentives

• ‘Bullying’

Centrally coordinated / achieving a

specific objective

• Territorial integrity non-negotiable

• SCS is a ‘core national interest’

• Non-intervention into domestic affairs

Generating ambiguity • Discourse vs. reality

• Disrespect of IL and bilateral agreements

• Self-interested interpretations of UNCLOS

Geopolitical impact

SCS

US

Japan

ASEAN

India, Australia,

EU…

Geopolitical impact

Naval capabilities as of 2016 (IISS Military Balance 2017)

Geopolitical impact

• Changing balance of power > SCS pivotal to ‘pivots’

• Deterioration of diplomatic relations > weakening of RSA

• Risk of accidental clashes > escalation

• Lack of a binding Code of Conduct

• Lack of governance > difficulty to cooperate on functional

security issues

• Environmental deterioration and resource depletion

• Failure of IL?

Why?

Economic interests

Oil & gas?

• Media reports

misleading

Economic interests

SLOCs

• USD 5 trillion-worth

of trade/ year

• Main oil and LNG

trade routes

• Involvement of ‘user’

states – beyond

SCS

Economic interests

Fisheries

• 12% of global fish catch

• Fish stock collapsing (IUU fishing, overfishing, coral reef depletion)

• Major long-term economic and social impact for coastal states

Way ahead?

“We cannot stop China

from doing this…, even

the Americans were not

able to stop it”

Way ahead?

• United international front > rules-based international system

• Sustained interest and naval presence (FoN principles)

• Environmental solutions - LME governance; Paris Convention –

Chapter 14 > preserving marine habitat by 2030 (UN legitimacy)

• Continue CBM and PD – HLD with ASEAN + building resilience of

individual MSs > focus on functional maritime security issues &

crisis prevention mechanisms

• G7 pressure (G7 WG on SCS?)

• Enforcement mechanisms? ‘Maritime PKO’?

Way ahead?

• How far is ‘too far’?

• Future of a rules-based international system?

• What EU policy… and what tools?

Thank you