Energize RE 4: Renewable Energy Supplement - March 2016 – Page 18

Industry News

The question about where this data comes from and whether it can be trusted is regularly raised in conversations. Should the data be scrutinised, it is expected that a value above 97% accuracy would be achieved for the list of installed capacity.

The pyramid of data

Discriminating data can be arduous. Making sense of data that is missing can be even worse as certain assumptions need to be made in order to compensate for unaccounted data. There is a gradual increase in the number of installations as PV systems get smaller. Therefore it can be noted that the larger base of smaller systems at the bottom end and a small base of large systems at the top end symbolise a pyramid, a useful method to present a visual model for installed capacity.

Certain assumptions have to be made in order to attempt to “measure” the number of installations that have been done in South Africa. The pyramid in Fig. 1 therefore reflects all installations except for solar borehole pumps and the government’s solar concession programmes as they have either been confirmed in number or confirmed in generation capacity through another study. These installations are excluded as they represent a different sector and/or type of installation.

The data pyramid has been broken down into four sections, with each colour representing differently sized systems ranging from: orange (1 MW+), green (100 – 999 kWp), blue (11 – 99 kWp) and purple (1 – kWp).

Installed capacity (1 - 10 kWp systems)

The 1 – 10 kWp system data provided in Table 1 does not differentiate between domestic and commercial, but rather looks at the statistical data that can be drawn from systems that have been listed with PQRS.

A total of 593 systems are listed as generating 2,7 MWp. One brand of 3 kW hybrid inverter sold 500 units during 2015, and another brand of 5 kW bi-directional charger sold 1500 units during 2015. By adding the missing data and re-calculating the percentages of the systems installed, a more realistic value is derived to

The solar short reportby Carel Ballek, PQRS

This report provides an overview of the solar PV sector in South Africa, 1 – 10 kWp system sizes, and shows the installed capacity by drawing conclusions using data of installed systems provided by contractors and engineering procurement construction managers (EPCs).

show the total number of installations in the 1 – 10 kWp category. The number of installations in column 2 of Table 1 are shared amongst 70 different inverter brands.

Data calculations were done using a triangulated approach:

l With individually listed systems as indicated in Table 1.

l With combined data with both individual and bulk listed systems in Table 2.

l By looking at the number of contractors who have done the installations and substantiating the values in order to support the theories behind items 1 and 2.

Although Table 1 is only representative of individually listed systems, the list makes provision for bulk listings which have not been included in the table. The bulk listings would account for another 679 installations which need to be factored in as a percentage of each sized system as well as an additional 79 x 3 kW systems and 320 x 1,5 kW systems. Once all the values have been added and factored in, Table 2 gives a different picture.

Even though the installed capacity has increased substantially from 2,7 MW to 15,5 MW, the average system size remains more or less the same at 4,5 kWp for Table 1 and 4,2 kWp per system for Table 2.

These values have now been compared or cross-referenced in two different ways reaching similar conclusions – 4,5 kWp vs. 4,2 kWp per system relative to 593 vs 3670 installations.

It is necessary to determine whether the

total number of installations in South Africa is realistic by cross-referencing other available values and data where the number of installers will be used as a means of deriving the presumed number of total installations for the 1 – 10 kWp range of systems in South Africa to date. In other words, we are trying to understand what the actual number of installations are, both listed and not listed, by understanding the training environment and cross-referencing the number of installers to the number of candidates trained during 2014 and 2015 measured against actual data; and then asking if it is realistic.

It is known that 2222 kWp was installed by 50 contractors doing an average of 44,44 kWp per contractor. If a total of 15 491 kWp was installed according to the list then we could calculate that at least 348 contractors were responsible for the 3670 installations listed in both bulk and individual installations.

Generally the tendency seems to be that the majority of installers start on smaller systems, typically in the 1 – 10 kWp range, and then gradually increase the system size as awareness is created with existing clientele.

Training and development of the sector

Once it is understood what the installed capacity could represent, other assumptions can be made to identify risks and opportunities to promote growth in the sector. Through analysis the, a few things can be concluded about the training sector.

Currently there is more than 20 institutions

Fig. 1: Probable generation capacity of installed solar PV systems.

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Energize RE 4: Renewable Energy Supplement - March 2016 – Page 20

Industry News

1 2 3 4 5 6

System size in kWp

Listed under 1 – 10 kWp

Total generation capacity

As a % of total listed

Bulk systemAdditional

system

10 42 900 6% 48

9 8 154 1% 9

8 30 514 3% 34

7 19 285 2% 22

6 43 553 4% 49

5 138 8979 58% 158 1500

4 63 3% 72 1500

3 167 2811% 18% 191 579

2 52 223 1% 59

1,5 480 3% 320

1 24 51 0% 27

0 7 0 0% 8

1 – 10 kWp 593 15491 100% 678 2399

Total systems listed 3670

1 2 3 4

System size in kWpTotal number of

installationsTotal generation

capacityAs a % of total listed

10 42 420 7%

9 8 72 1%

8 30 240 5%

7 19 133 3%

6 43 258 7%

5 138 690 23%

4 63 252 11%

3 167 501 28%

2 52 104 9%

1 24 24 4%

0 7 0 1%

1 – 10 kWp 593 2694 100%

Table 1: The number of 1 – 10 kWp solar PV systems listed at pgrs.co.za as well as the relationship factor of differences between differently sized systems..

offering some form of solar PV training. Of these, only about five offer installer courses that are generic or product-neutral courses which focus on solar PV principles.

Based on the figures, around 70% of candidates that attend training want to be involved in solar PV installations. In the short term, however, only about 10% of installers attending the training convert into sales. The reason for the small conversion rate could be the lack of access to the market. The other 30% are either engineers interested in the design and standards criteria, or entrepreneurs interested in identifying a new market into which an investment can be made in order to generate income.

There are three types of contractors doing installations:

l Seasoned installers with experience or a history of installations dating back to when solar PV was still considered to be too expensive, consisting of about 5% of installers or less. They might attend courses but are quite set in their ways

l New installers with a history in electrical installations. They tend to be cautious and are more likely to do courses, start small and experiment on the way up. They are also more likely to attend courses as they might be averse due do their background in electricity.

l New installers with no history in any electrical installations. This group includes solar water heating installers with an existing database of clients who are asking for PV installations simply because the installer is at the right place at the right time. This group could also be a flow-over of one of the diverse occupations seen approaching the industry due to the perceived lucrative income opportunities. This group tend to be innovators and learn through mistakes, and even though they attend course, their electrical knowledge is limited.

Between the 20-odd training organisations, about 3000 candidates were trained during 2014 and another 3000 during 2015. That leaves 6000 candidates with around 600 (10%) that would end up doing installations as a source of income. If we assume that 20% of electricians that do installations do not attend training courses, and 5% of the workforce are seasoned, it leaves 75% of installers currently engaged in the solar PV industry. At roughly 44,44 kWp per installer, this brings the figure very close to the 33 MW that was estimated in the solar pyramid.

Contact Carel Ballack, PQRS, Tel 082 322-2601, carel.ballack@pqrs.co.za

Table 2: Installed systems including bulk listings.

Nr.Organisation – alphabetical

order1 – 10 kwp installed

Nr.Organisation – alphabetical

order1 – 10 kWp

installed

1 AmSolar 20 27 Owner isntalled 3

2 Bright Black solar 124 28 Pacific solar 8

3 Brighthousesolar 21 29 Premier Brands 27

4 Dako 717 30 Premier Solar 8

5 Eco-Synergy 8 31 Progrow Solar 7

6 Electrilabs 5 32 Q-Power 6

7 Emergent Energy 58 33 Rhino Energy 3

8 EnerGworx 26 34 Romano 3

9 Energy Maxx Solar 11 35 Rubincon 3

10 Evenini 8 36 Skybridge Solar 3

11 Gauteng Water Heating 38 37 Sola Future 9

12 Genergy 63 38 Solar MD 34

13 GES 47 39 Solar4Ever 41

14 GFTrust@telkomsa.net 6 40 Solareff 76

15 Green Grey 8 41 SOLARpowerPB 22

16 Green Habitat 11 42 Solarzone 131

17 Green Leaf Alternative Solutions 4 43 Solsquare 7

18 GreenSun 123 44 Southern Sun Solar 2

19 Ilaanga Energy 68 45 Specialised Solar Systems 4

20 Kayema 13 46 Spilhaus Cradoc - cradock@wmspi 41

21 Khanyaled 22 47 Sunworx Solar 762

22 Kwikelec 36 48 Sustainable Power Solutions 16

23 Mather Electrical 4 49 Tasol 90

24 Msolar 72 50 Thorne Solar 27

25 Netshield SA 5 51 Treetops Renewable Energy System 2

26 Off Grid Technologies 86

Table 3: Installers/EPCs/contractors that have made contributions towards the installed capacity.