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The Services Sector in Uganda - performance in utilization of trade opportunities

Francis Mangeni

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INTRODUCTION

-  We are talking 50.7% of GDP, 28% increase in exports in 2009/2010, and the

National Development Plan 2010-15

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Key message •  The services sector is already making a

significant contribution towards achieving the poverty eradication objectives of Uganda and other MDGs, and the NDP 2010-15

•  Government can build on this performance through key interventions that strengthen the sector –  public-private sector dialogue and leadership is key –  partnership with regional and international

organizations working in this area will help –  Utilization of regional markets should be prioritized

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Key questions

•  What does Uganda have, that it can export –  Identification of good performance and

success stories •  To which markets

– Regional and global, a strategy is required •  What niche products can be developed

–  Innovation should be promoted •  Which markets can be created

– Market intelligence is critical

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Key message from COMESA •  COMESA is Uganda’s largest export market •  A large market of 430 million people, and $392b GDP •  Ugandan products are outcompeted in regional markets

because Uganda is not in the FTA and its exports continue to attract customs duties

•  The various COMESA programs will assist the attainment of the NDP objectives

•  Be active and provide leadership – the ICT regional center of excellence, UMU, ACTESA and CAADP and agricultural market, take up positions and consultancies, Uganda’s leadership in COMESA will assist its regional and international standing

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What are “services”?

•  Products are normally categorized as goods, services, intellectual property

•  But there are cases where the differences are quite fine – coffee, a cup of coffee, muhabura coffee

•  11 categories of services, and any others

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Types of services United Nations Central Product Classification:

1.  Business services 2.  Communication services 3.  Construction and related engineering 4.  Distribution 5.  Educational 6.  Environmental 7.  Financial 8.  Health-related and social 9.  Tourism and travel-related 10. Recreational, cultural and sporting 11. Transport 12. Other services not included elsewhere

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How are services traded? •  A supplier in Uganda sells services abroad

without leaving Uganda – MTN everyone you go, on-line entertainment, accounting services for Canadians (cross border supply)

•  Consumers come to Uganda to spend on services – Gorilla and bird watching, white water rafting (consumption abroad)

•  Investors in Uganda – KCB (commercial presence)

•  People move abroad to provide their services – remittances remain a major contributor to the well-being of people in Uganda

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How about trading within the country? •  Services products are all over the place, and

without them life would be short and brutish –  Education –  Utilities –  Transportation –  Financial services –  Health –  Environmental

•  Services are the face of modernization, competitiveness, and poverty eradication

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SUCCESS STORIES

-  we got stuff!

- did you know that Uganda is a global exporter of ICT products?

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Makerere University

•  Faculty of Computing and Information Technology – Largest computing and ICT training centre in

Africa – 18 academic programs – 3,589 undergrad and 236 grad students (60

PhDs) (593 foreign undergrad, 14 grad) – 6 computer labs each accommodating 700

students, other smaller labs for 200 students

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International repute

•  The faculty is an authorized Prometric testing and Pearson VUE Testing Centre. It hosts Microsoft exams like Microsoft Systems Engineer (MCSE), Microsoft Database Administrator (MCDBA), Microsoft systems Administrator (MCSA), Microsoft Solution Developer (MCSD) and ORACLE exams through Pearson VUE. The centre delivers international Computer Driving License (ICDL) exams.

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CIT stars •  Dr. Rehema Baguma improved web accessibility guidelines, to

make the web more accessible for people with disabilities •  Eng. John Wekesa designed a car tracking system that uses a

mobile phone to control the movement of vehicles (anti-theft device)

•  Dr. Idris Rai’s paper to the International conference on Internet and Web Applications and Services (ICIW 2010), received the best paper award

•  Google Africa, in partnership with Makerere University’s CIT faculty has made it possible to locate districts in Uganda on Google Maps

•  On 3 June 2010, the East African Microsoft Imagine Cup 2010 Competition was held at the Hilton Hotel, Nairobi, Kenya. For the third Year running, the winning team came from Makerere University - Faculty of Computing and Information Technology.

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Data Fundi (U) Ltd •  Data Fundi (U) Ltd was established in 2002 ie 8 years in

operation. The company employs 16 people and offers a range of services: ICT consultancy, ICT solutions, Project management services and infrastructure roll out.

•  In 2009, the company’s annual sales stood at $ 1,000,000 and 22% of these were earned from exports of services to Southern Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi. The company has branches or partners in Nigeria and Angola.

•  The company won an award in 2009 from Synovate in the top 100 SME competition.

•  It was awarded the Government Optic Fiber cable project by major communications vendor Huwei.

•  Warid telecom used the company to deliver its turnkey satellite Gateway.

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Crystal Clear •  Crystal Clear has operated for 12 years •  Has won a number of prizes: UIA investor of the year 2003 award

for the best software developer, selected as a Top 100 mid-size company in Uganda by the Steadman group on behalf of KPMG and PSFU 2009, two of the 20 winners of the CGAP World Bank Financial Transparency Award for micro finance institutions use “Loan Performance” a software product developed in Uganda; it won the 2005 African SMME accolade in the ICT category issued by Center for Investment Analysis of the University of Stellenbosch of Cape Town South Africa

•  It designed the SMS Banking software, finger print scanning and the WAN

•  It employs 22 people and provides finance and micro finance institutions with the “Loan Performer Tool”. This tool is used in more than 50 countries all over the world and has earned the company more than US $ 400,000 operations

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Computer Forensics ltd •  employs 6 people and offers ICT forensic investigations, audit services,

forensic training, ICT security solutions and automated Law enforcement security systems. Other services include provision of enterprise resource planning systems and customized systems development.

•  The company’s annual sales were at $ 150,000 by 2009 and the company was offering services in Uganda, China and Rwanda.

•  In 2007 the company won the contract to supply the Uganda Police with an Automatic Law Enforcement System that was used during the CHOGM.

•  The company developed an M & E database management system for the Northern Uganda Aids Malaria & TB Programme (NUMAT) a USAID project.

•  It developed a vehicle licensing management system for the Transport Licensing Board of the Ministry of Works.

•  It developed an enterprise resource planning system for SMEs called AMCIS and got a Young Achievers Award in 2009 for innovation in ICT and for pioneering Forensics and security services.

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Web Biz Africa limited •  Started in 2002 and employs 6 people •  It offers E-solutions for African SMEs through

www.webbizafrica.com – an African e-commerce portal that enables smes to market their products and services, receive orders online without worrying about costs of web designing, hosting or domain name registration

•  For its innovativeness the company received the award for the “Most innovative ICT service for 2009” from Enterprise Technology Magazine- EAC ICT Magazine

•  The company offers ICT consultancy, mobile-device programming, website analysis, design and implementation to its clients

•  It was able to acquire and integrate the Secure Socket layers (SSL) certificate with extended validation from Verisign Inc - the leading SSL certificate issuer in the world

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Zundati Limited •  Started in 2006 by Mr. Mawanda Richard and his partners in the

USA •  Employs about 200 people, and provides services like data

processing, data conversion, imaging, storage, indexing and retrieval, application testing and development as well as on line research and analysis.

•  In the year 2009 the company’s annual sales stood at US $ 250,000 and the company was supplying mainly customers in the USA.

•  It has worked on several big projects like processing documents for the USA national archives records, the company has also processed and generated a party members’ register for the NRM party.

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Others •  Eco-tourism (half the world’s population of

mountain gorillas, bird watching) •  Three world heritage sites •  Entertainment – Ndere Troupe •  Football – John Kizito •  Athletics •  Doctors and teachers – not just in Southern

Africa •  Telecommunications revolution in Uganda •  The banking industry

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PERFORMANCE OF THE SERVICES SECTOR

-  wonderful, wonderful

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Economic performance •  50.7% of GDP in 2010, ie double the

contribution of both agriculture and industry •  (51.2% according to BoU Annual Report 2009) •  Services exports grew by 28%, though Uganda

is still a net importer of services, indicating a potential domestic market for domestic suppliers

•  The industrial sector includes services, meaning the contribution of the service sector may be higher than recorded –  Construction: 61% –  Water: 6.9% –  Electricity: 3.9%

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Sectoral performance •  Wholesale and retail: 26.3%, lower this year due

to out competition in Sudan by Kenya (Kenya is in the COMESA FTA, and its exports don’t attract duties in Sudan)

•  Transport and communication: 16.2%, communications services grew by 30.3%

•  Real estate: 13.9% •  Education: 11.4% •  Hotels and restaurants: 8.7% •  Financial services: 5.7%, but registered a 21.1%

growth

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Steady increase

52.8

21.5

12.0

23.8

34.0

48.3

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

1990/91 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Industry

Services

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Some more facts and stats •  9/10 jobs advertised in the papers are in the

services sector – significant contribution to job creation and incomes

•  Telecommunications revolution in Uganda has had knock on effects in e-government, e-learning, e-health, e-banking, e-business – has good impact on social welfare

•  60% the value of final products on the whole is made up of services – value addition and higher incomes on products

•  A service job has a multiplier effect of 4

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COMESA investments

•  43 of the 50 largest cross-border investments in the COMESA region were in the services sector

•  43 were in business, telecommunication and financial services, more than 50% being in financial services

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UGANDA’S KEY SERVICE SECTORS

- based on performance and prioritization

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Criteria – separate paper •  Identification by stakeholders – ownership and

preparedness to follow up opportunities •  Prioritization in national policy documents – shows

political commitment •  Good performance – shows good prospects and viability,

profitability •  Employment generation – social welfare •  Legal ownership – private sector ownership shows room

for the private sector •  Geographical distribution – rural empowerment •  Levels of projected public expenditure – commitment •  Regulatory framework – laws and bodies – shows good

prospects for social economic welfare

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CPC Sector/ sub-sector Main criteria 1A Business services:

Professional services

Good prospects for circular migration

1B Business services:

Information Technology

Rapid growth

Note: According to the UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2008, p.255, Uganda is one of the leading world exporters of IT ; this is the only sector where Uganda’s performance has this ranking

2C Communication services:

Telecommunications

Strong growth since introduction of reforms

3 Construction services Demand is increasing in line with strong economic development

7A Financial services:

Insurance

Demand is increasing in line with strong economic development

9 Tourism services Further diversification will propel growth

Source: Francis Mangeni, compiled from the Workshop Report (annex 1) and the UNCTAD Working Document entitled Strategies for Promoting Trade and Investment in the Services Sectors of Uganda, 22 August 2008

Priority Service Sectors

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Priority Service Sectors

CPC Code No. of times Sector/ sub-sector

1A 4 Professional services

1F 4 Energy

7B 4 Banking

11 4 Transport

5 3 Education

8 3 Health

1B 2 IT

2C 2 Telecommunications

3 1 Construction

6 1 Environmental

9 1 Tourism

Source: Francis Mangeni, compiled from 4 policy documents

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Energy Sector Profile Petroleum

Petrol Aviation fuel

Diesel Fuel oil Kerosene LPG

2003 199,016 80,009 244,075 46,176 47,493 3,461

2004 186,285 79,131 260,978 53,313 49,340 4,500

2005 174,054 88,932 319,574 44,423 39,836 4,486

2006 198,125 89,995 417,449 38,289 42,897 5,800

2007 191,713 92,616 464,122 34,384 34,309 7,273

Percentage change

2006 13.83 1.20 30.63 -13.81 7.68 29.29

2007 -3.24 2.91 11.18 -10.20 -20.02 25.39

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Energy Sector Profile Electricity: Electricity Capacity and generation

Capacity/ generation 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Installed capacity (MW)

- Dam 300 300 300 300 300 - Other stations 3 3 3 3 3

Total capacity 303 303 303 303 303

Units generated (Million KWh) - hydro 1,755.60 1,894.40 1,856 1,172.28 1,904 - thermal 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 - Total units generated 1,756.8 1,895.6 1,857.2 1,173.48 -

Of which -transit and distribution losses

28.2 35.7

- units accounted by consumption

- - - - -

- maximum demand (MW)

279.1 264.5 238.7 159.4 -

Annual load factor 71.9 82 88.8 85 -

Source: UMEME Ltd

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Energy Sector Profile Electricity: Electricity Sold

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

No. of consumers 244,248 262,123 268,785 - -

No. of units (Million KWh)

1,276 1,023 1,015 - -

Revenue collected (Million UG Sh)

208,971 184,622.8 125,684 - -

Source: Uganda Sta/s/cal Abstract, 2008, p151

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Telecommunications Sector Profile Telecommunications Statistics

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Fixed telephone lines 65,793 82,495 100,777 129,863 165,788

mobile cellular subscribers

893,035 1,165,035 1,525,125 2,697,616 5,163,414

Telephone traffic (‘000 minutes)

1,308,194 1,559,162 1,723,964 2,307,391 3,004,738

Payphones 3,456 4,634 10,263 - - Mobile cellular operators 3 3 3 3 4

Internet services operators

18 18 17 17 -

Private FM radio stations (registered)

125 148 145 145 -

Private TV stations (registered)

23 31 34 34 -

Courier service operators 19 19 22 22 -

Source: Uganda Statistical Abstract, 2008, p.153

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Telecommunications Sector Profile Internet Market

Subscribers and users 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

- subscribers 6,500 7,024 8,000 9,500 15,000

- estimated internet users

233,675 252,513 287,600 1,000,000 1,600,000


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Tourism Sector Profile : Basic Tourism Indicators

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Inbound tourism

Visitor arrivals (‘000) 306 512 468 539 642

Visitor arrivals by region

Africa 235 407 337 398 411 Americas 16 23 29 36 42 Europe 39 49 62 71 77 Asia 11 18 20 22 25 Middle East 1 2 3 3 4 Oceania 2 2 4 4 4 Other and not stated 1 11 13 4 8

Visitor arrivals by mode of transport

Air 97 131 172 200 234 Road 209 381 296 336 408

Arrivals by purpose of visit (‘000)

Leisure, recrea/on and holidays 77 86 9 30 140 Business and professional 67 81 31 72 110 Visi/ng friends and rela/ves 52 71 35 89 272 Other 110 274 393 345 120

Tourism expenditure In the country by reference (USD million) 265 321 327 375 449

Visitors to na=onal parks (na=onals and non-‐na=onals)

102,567 124,337 128,810 110,092 126,553

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Insurance Services Profile

Policies issued

Year Number

2002 148,581

2003 161,135

2004 153,902

2005 184,656

2006 177,007

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Education Services Profile: Primary School Education Indicators in Uganda 2003 -2007 Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Enrollment (in ‘000s)

7,633 7,377 7,224 7,362 7,537

Percent Annual change in enrollment

3.6 -3 -2 1.9 2

Number of Primary Teachers (‘000s)

146 147 145 150 132

Net Enrollment rate

100.8 90 93 92 93.3

Gross Intake rate

155.7 147.1 152.8 129 128.5

Number of Primary Schools

13,353 13,371 13,576 14,385 14,728

Pupil Teacher Ratio

52 50 50 48 57

Pupil Classroom ratio

87 79 74 72 72

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Employment

Employment 2001/2 Employment 2006/7 Sector No. of

businesses Total employed

No. of businesses

Total employed

Agriculture and forestry 449 14,783 412 28,407 Fishing 174 999 124 1,012 Mining and quarrying 427 1,609 39 1,493 Food processing 11,968 87,131 1,200 39,633 Other manufacturing 23 3,444 2,080 32,456 Utilities 247 7,340 29 2,738 Construction 107,486 178,275 282 8,993 Trade 20,483 54,131 5,269 46,776 Hotels and restaurant 834 13,898 3,411 32,796 Transport, storage, and communications

417 7,023 928 17,665

Finance and insurance 122 1,077 1,158 13,537 Business services 2,414 20,179 1,738 27,540 Education 479 9,603 2,415 20,675 Health and social works 3,273 17,396 5,341 31,071 Community, social and personal services

12,086 27,230 1,041 13,003

Total 160,883 444,118 25,467 317,795


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Legal Ownership

Service sector Sole Proprietor

Partnership Private Limited

Government and cooperative

Others Total

Utilities 3.4% 31.0% 10.3% 44.8% 10.3% 100.0%

Construction 8.2% 6.7% 79.8% 5.3% 100.0%

Trade 43.4% 41.9% 10.2% 4.4% 100.0%

Hotels and Restaurants

77% 9% 9% 5% 100%

Transport, 16% 9% 68% 7% 100%

Posts and Telecommunications

4% 1% 84% 11% 100%

Business Services 25% 18% 46% 11% 100%

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Legal Ownership

Service sector Sole Proprietor


Government and cooperative

Others Total

Utilities 3.4% 31.0% 10.3% 44.8% 10.3% 100.0%

Construction 8.2% 6.7% 79.8% 5.3% 100.0%

Trade 43.4% 41.9% 10.2% 4.4% 100.0%

Hotels and Restaurants

77% 9% 9% 5% 100%

Transport, 16% 9% 68% 7% 100%


4% 1% 84% 11% 100%

Business Services 25% 18% 46% 11% 100%

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Legal Ownership

Service Sector

Sole Proprietorship


Joint Government

Government Religious Others Total

Education 56.0% 10.8% 7.4% 5.4% 9.7% 10.7% 100.0%

Insurance 8 8 133 3 1 12 165

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Legal Ownership

Service sector

Sole Proprietor

Partnership Private limited

Religious

NGO Government

Others Total

Health & Social Works

3,762 242 201 157 572 60 347 5,341

Community and personal services

39.9% 7.5% 18.9% 18.0% 15.8% 100.0%

Financial Intermediation

7.4% 4.5% 35.4% 3.5% 18.1% 5.3% 25.7% 100%

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Geographical Distribution Service sector Western Kampala Eastern Northern Central

Utilities 38% 31% 14% 10% 7% Construction 11% 63% 6% 11% 9% Trade -41% for sale

and repair of motor vehicles and cycles. -23% for wholesale trade. -35% for retail trade.

-30% for sale and repair of motor vehicles and circles. -17% for wholesale trade. -52% for retail trade.

-35% for sale and repair of motor vehicles and cycles. -15% for wholesale trade. -50% for retail trade.

-26% for sale and repair of motor vehicles and cycles. -21% for whole sale trade. -52% for retail trade.

-54% for sale and repair of motor vehicles and cycles -12% for whole sale trade. 34% for retail trade.

Hotels and restaurants 17% 38% 16% 12% 17%

Transport Less than 10% 64% 18% Less than 10% Less than 10%


19% 34% 19% 10% 17%

Financial Intermediation 290 businesses

281 businesses

132 businesses 84 businesses

206 businesses

Insurance 12% 55% 15% 6% 12% Business Services 9% 67% 11% 5% 8% Education 11.2% 25.1% 12.9% 2.0% 48.8% Health and Social work 13% 39% 12% 9% 27%

Community and personal services

13% 53% 11% 9% 14%

Source: Francis Mangeni, compiled from the Business Register, 2007

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Projected Public Expenditure

Table: medium term expenditure allocations (sector shares, %) Sector 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Security 9.3 8.2 7.7 6.9 6.4 6.2 Works and transport 13.2 18.6 17.7 17.2 13.8 13.5

Agriculture 4.3 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 Education 16.1 15.4 14.4 13.3 13.2 13.0 Health 9.0 10.8 9.8 9.0 8.4 8.2 Water and environment 3.3 2.6 2.7 3.1 2.9 2.7

Justice/Law 4.9 4.8 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.4 Accountability 7.1 7.6 6.2 5.6 5.3 5.0 E n e r g y a n d m i n e r a l development

9.5 7.9 6.2 5.5 5.3 5.0

Tourism, trade and industry 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Lands, Housing and urban development

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2

Social development 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

ICT 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Public sector management 10.2 8.8 8.7 8.0 7.8 7.5

Public administration 3.7 2.3 2.3 2.7 1.8 1.8

Legislature 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 Interest payments due 6.1 6.5 4.6 4.2 4.3 3.9

Contingency 0.0 0.0 9.6 14.8 21.5 24.5 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Background to the Budget FY 2008/9, p.75

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Priority sectors of Uganda

•  Transport •  Telecommunications •  Financial services •  Business services (energy, professional, ICT) •  Health •  Tourism •  Education •  Construction

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WTO commitments •  Uganda has opened up the following:

–  Tourism –  Telecommunications

•  Uganda, together with other LDCs, continues to request developed countries to open up sectors of export interest, particularly in movement of natural persons both high skilled and low skilled

•  A general assessment is that utilization of WTO opportunities has been fraught with restrictions abroad and the economic needs tests, yet the negotiations seem stalled for the time being

•  Security services in Iraq are not WTO opportunities, indicating the possibility of alternatives

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EAC, COMESA and Tripartite Services

Markets for utilization

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7 EAC commitments •  Business services •  Communication •  Distribution •  Education •  Financial •  Tourism •  Transport

–  It is still early to assess utilization of opportunities, however, the commitments took into account performance and stakeholder support, and reflected the negotiated outcome with the other 4 countries

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6 priority sectors of SADC

•  Financial (EAC) •  Telecommunications (EAC) •  Transport (EAC) •  Tourism (EAC) •  Energy •  Construction

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7 COMESA service sectors

•  Financial – EAC, SADC, COMESA •  Communication – EAC, SADC, COMESA •  Transport – EAC, SADC, COMESA •  Tourism – EAC, SADC, COMESA •  Business – EAC, COMESA •  Construction – EAC, COMESA •  Energy – SADC, COMESA

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Tripartite services market

•  Financial – EAC, SADC, COMESA •  Communication – EAC, SADC, COMESA •  Transport – EAC, SADC, COMESA •  Tourism – EAC, SADC, COMESA

–  In the Tripartite negotiations, Uganda can prioritize these sectors as common to the three RECs, and seek to add others in which it has good potential, for instance, education and health, subject of course to good practices such as circular migration

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HOW TO DEVELOP THE SERVICES SECTOR EXAMPLES FROM NEIGHBOURS

- key message: political leadership and

commitment are key requirements, to brand the country, mobilize all line ministries, and provide

a framework for the private sector

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Focus e.g. ITES and BPO

•  Only 15% so far tapped of a potential global market of ITeS estimated at $475b

•  How is the ICT Software Cluster Kampala doing?

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Kenya •  High Level ITES advisory team formed by the

Prime Minister of Kenya in December 2009; a National BPO/ITES Working Group then established, a branding body established (Brand Kenya)

•  To guide and facilitate an effective working system between various government ministries & agencies in order to develop a strong ITES sector in Kenya

•  To monitor and evaluate the impact of ITES related activities in Kenya

•  To develop a strategy for Rural BPO in Kenya

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ALIVE WITH POSSIBILITY

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-

•  Starts with a Strategy to be adopted by Parliament

•  Strategies related to Work streams / identified strategic pillars

•  Identify Niche Offerings •  Package what the country offers •  Identify key source markets

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KEY BRANDING MESSAGES…

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Mauritian Economy The Re-Invention Process

From Trade Preferences…

…to Global Competiveness

1970s: Sugar - 70% export earnings Per capita @ US$ 320

1980s: Manufacturing & Tourism Tourist arrivals hits 100K mark / Industrial boom through EPZ Per capita @ US$ 1,000

1990s: Export of Services Financial Services, Logistics, IT Services and BPO Per capita @ US$ 2,500

2009: Open & Diversified Platform Knowledge-based economy Per capita @ US$ 7,500 and projected @ US$10,000 by 2015

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FINAL REMARKS, WAY FORWARD •  Uganda has highly skilled ICT specialist personnel. In

addition to this it has the potential to train and export ICT skills and products to other countries. It is a global exporter of ICT products and is well positioned to enter the ITES and BPO markets.

•  It can offer niche tourism services being home to half the

remaining Mountain Gorilla population in the World as well as Bird watching, it is home also to three world Heritage Sites two of which are National Parks.

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FINAL REMARKS, WAY FORWARD •  In addition Uganda can also export Health, Education,

Recreation (Entertainment), Sports, Banking and Telecommunication Services within the region.

•  Develop a national brand name. Identify and target niche markets that are as yet unexploited.

•  Joining the COMESA FTA would make its products more competitive in Sudan and COMESA market. Tripartite FTA is a potential new market that can be further exploited

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