The Scientific Study The Scientific Study of Politics (POL 51)of Politics (POL 51)

Professor B. JonesProfessor B. Jones

University of California, DavisUniversity of California, Davis

TodayToday

IntroductionIntroduction R…comments about.R…comments about. Preliminaries/Basic ConceptsPreliminaries/Basic Concepts

Political SciencePolitical Science

Political scientists are interested Political scientists are interested in acquiring knowledge about and in acquiring knowledge about and understanding many important understanding many important political phenomena:political phenomena:– Many different levels of governmentMany different levels of government– Many different actorsMany different actors

Political SciencePolitical Science

Political science is the application Political science is the application of empirical principles to the of empirical principles to the study of phenomena that are study of phenomena that are political in nature.political in nature.

Empirical ResearchEmpirical Research

Two reasons to understand how Two reasons to understand how to conduct empirical research:to conduct empirical research:– Citizens are confronted with Citizens are confronted with

empirical research daily through empirical research daily through political news and debate.political news and debate.

– You can use empirical research You can use empirical research techniques to improve your own techniques to improve your own work.work.

Empirical ResearchEmpirical Research

Empirical research on political Empirical research on political phenomena can be used tophenomena can be used to– Improve understanding of and find Improve understanding of and find

solutions to difficult problems solutions to difficult problems Applied researchApplied research

– Satisfy your intellectual curiosity Satisfy your intellectual curiosity about the nature of political about the nature of political phenomenaphenomena Theoretical researchTheoretical research

Empirical ResearchEmpirical Research

The empirical research process of The empirical research process of deciding deciding – Which information will be used in an Which information will be used in an

analysisanalysis– Which method will be used to Which method will be used to

conduct the analysisconduct the analysis– Which statistic will be used to Which statistic will be used to

demonstrate the findingsdemonstrate the findings

Examples of Empirical Examples of Empirical ResearchResearch Political scientists study a variety of Political scientists study a variety of

questions:questions:– Winners and losers in politicsWinners and losers in politics– Who votes and who does notWho votes and who does not– Repression of human rightsRepression of human rights– Public support for U.S. foreign involvementPublic support for U.S. foreign involvement

What questions are you interested in What questions are you interested in studying?studying?

Find a problem!Find a problem!

Is Political Science a Is Political Science a Science?Science? There are two general objections There are two general objections

to classifying political science as to classifying political science as a science: a science: – Practical objectionsPractical objections– Philosophical objectionsPhilosophical objections

Is Political Science a Is Political Science a Science?Science? Practical objections:Practical objections:

– Political behavior is extremely Political behavior is extremely complex.complex.

– People can intentionally mislead People can intentionally mislead researchers.researchers.

– Measurement is often subjective.Measurement is often subjective.– Data can be difficult or impossible to Data can be difficult or impossible to

attain.attain.– Data can be “ugly” or misleadingData can be “ugly” or misleading

Is Political Science a Is Political Science a Science?Science? Philosophical objections:Philosophical objections:

– The reasoning behind political The reasoning behind political behavior cannot be measured behavior cannot be measured objectively.objectively.

– The “facts” of political phenomena The “facts” of political phenomena are constructed or conditioned by are constructed or conditioned by the observer’s perceptions, the observer’s perceptions, experiences, and opinions.experiences, and opinions.

Political Science Political Science DisciplineDiscipline The discipline has changed over The discipline has changed over

time.time.– Traditional approach:Traditional approach:

Period between 1930 and 1960—primarily Period between 1930 and 1960—primarily described the practice of governmentdescribed the practice of government

– Empirical approach:Empirical approach: Followed early survey work in the 1950s—Followed early survey work in the 1950s—

led to the widespread application of led to the widespread application of statistical methods—explanatory researchstatistical methods—explanatory research

Political Science Political Science DisciplineDiscipline The discipline has changed over time.The discipline has changed over time.

– Normative pushback:Normative pushback: In response to empiricism—focused on In response to empiricism—focused on

questions of morality and policy issues that questions of morality and policy issues that are relevant to real- world political discussionsare relevant to real- world political discussions

– Debate between empirical and normative Debate between empirical and normative research has cooled since the 1980sresearch has cooled since the 1980s

– To engage in modern political science To engage in modern political science requires you to understand scientific requires you to understand scientific method. method.

Basic PrinciplesBasic Principles

““Empirical Research”Empirical Research” Hypothesis OrientedHypothesis Oriented Theory Driven (Hopefully)Theory Driven (Hopefully)

Empirically Based Empirically Based ResearchResearch em·pir·i·calem·pir·i·cal       

– 1.derived from or guided by experience or experiment. 1.derived from or guided by experience or experiment.

– 2.depending upon experience or observation alone, without 2.depending upon experience or observation alone, without using scientific method or theory, esp. as in medicine.using scientific method or theory, esp. as in medicine.

– 3.provable or verifiable by experience or experiment.3.provable or verifiable by experience or experiment. Observation-basedObservation-based Data are important!Data are important!

– Data are not created equalData are not created equal Therefore, Therefore, research design research design is importantis important Let’s first think about data…in general terms.Let’s first think about data…in general terms.

Good Data, Bad Data, Ugly Good Data, Bad Data, Ugly DataData

““Good”Good”– Randomized Samples Randomized Samples – ExperimentsExperiments

““Bad”Bad”– Convenience SamplesConvenience Samples– ““Person-on-the-Street” InterviewsPerson-on-the-Street” Interviews

““Ugly”Ugly”– Exit Polls (possibly)Exit Polls (possibly)– ““Selected Samples”Selected Samples”

““Archival Data” (all of the above)Archival Data” (all of the above)

Archival DataArchival Data

Government StatisticsGovernment Statistics Historical DataHistorical Data All very clean data, right?All very clean data, right? A Side-Trip to Voting TurnoutA Side-Trip to Voting Turnout Should be easy to measure…Should be easy to measure…

– How do we measure turnout?How do we measure turnout?

Turnout in AmericaTurnout in America

How has turnout been historically computed?How has turnout been historically computed?– Turnout=N Voters/VAPTurnout=N Voters/VAP– VAP: “voting age population” (Now, 18+)VAP: “voting age population” (Now, 18+)– Problems with this?Problems with this?

All those 18+ years of age are All those 18+ years of age are notnot eligible to eligible to vote.vote.

But still…But still… Alternative ways to compute turnout?Alternative ways to compute turnout?

– Turnout*=N Voters/VEPTurnout*=N Voters/VEP– VEP: “voting eligible population” (18+ but VEP: “voting eligible population” (18+ but legallylegally

permitted to vote)permitted to vote)

TurnoutTurnout: Good Data?: Good Data?

National Voter Turnout(VAP)

63.161.9

60.8

55.253.6

52.6 53.1

50.1

55.1

49.1

51.3

55.3

40

45

50

55

60

65

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Year

Per

cen

tag

e

Turnout ReduxTurnout ReduxNational Voter Turnout

(VAP vs. VEP)

52.6 53.1

50.1

55.1

49.1

51.3

55.354.2

55.25

52.7751.66

54.22

60.93

58.11

40

45

50

55

60

65

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Year

Perc

enta

ge

VAP VEP

Tale of Two States: Tale of Two States: ArizonaArizona

VAP vs. VEP: State of Arizona

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Year

Perc

enta

ge

VAP:Arizona VEP:Arizona

Tale of Two States: Tale of Two States: CaliforniaCalifornia

VAP vs. VEP: State of California

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Year

Perc

enta

ge

VAP: California VEP: California

A Tale A Tale of Two of Two Countries: U.S.A. and Countries: U.S.A. and AustraliaAustralia

National Voter Turnout in U.S. (VAP)

63.1 61.9 60.8

55.253.6 52.6 53.1

50.1

55.1

49.151.3

55.3

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

Year

Per

cent

age

National Voter Turnout in Australia (VAP)

8481.2

84.2 84.182.1

83.4 82.5 81.7

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1980 1983 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1998

Year

Per

cen

tag

e

Take-away Points?Take-away Points?

Data, even ostensibly clean data, has Data, even ostensibly clean data, has measurement issues we must deal measurement issues we must deal with.with.

Know your data…US vs. Australia for Know your data…US vs. Australia for example.example.

A study of turnout differences would A study of turnout differences would be a silly study. be a silly study.

Have a THEORY…some grounded Have a THEORY…some grounded reason for your expectations.reason for your expectations.

Elements of Good Elements of Good TheoryTheory GeneralizabilityGeneralizability ReplicabilityReplicability TransparencyTransparency ParsimonyParsimony

– Occam’s RazorOccam’s Razor ""when you have two competing theories which make exactly when you have two competing theories which make exactly

the same predictions, the one that is simpler is the better.the same predictions, the one that is simpler is the better."" ""We are to admit no more causes of natural things than such We are to admit no more causes of natural things than such

as are both true and sufficient to explain their appearances.as are both true and sufficient to explain their appearances." " (Sir Issac Newton)(Sir Issac Newton)

Theorizing in Social Theorizing in Social Sciences can be a bit of Sciences can be a bit of Challenge!Challenge! Why do people vote? (Or not Why do people vote? (Or not

vote?)vote?)– Structural Explanations Structural Explanations – Informational ExplanationsInformational Explanations

Why do states engage in conflict?Why do states engage in conflict?– Realist PerspectiveRealist Perspective– Neorealist PerspectiveNeorealist Perspective

Often, multiple “stories” seem Often, multiple “stories” seem consistent with known facts.consistent with known facts.

““Laws” are Harder to Laws” are Harder to Come ByCome By V=I x R (Ohm’s Law)V=I x R (Ohm’s Law)

– Describes the relationship between Describes the relationship between Voltage (V), Current (I), and Voltage (V), Current (I), and Resistance (R)Resistance (R)

– It really is a law!It really is a law! Anything like this in the social Anything like this in the social

sciences?sciences?

Some “Laws”Some “Laws”

Duverger’s Law: Duverger’s Law: a principle which a principle which asserts that a majority voting election system asserts that a majority voting election system naturally leads to a two-party system. naturally leads to a two-party system. (From (From

Wikipedia)Wikipedia) Hotelling’s Law: Hotelling’s Law: in many markets it is in many markets it is

rationalrational for producers to make their products for producers to make their products

as similar as possible.as similar as possible. (From Wikipedia)(From Wikipedia)

PerhapsPerhaps not quite the same as not quite the same as Ohm’s Law!Ohm’s Law!

Hypotheses and DataHypotheses and Data

Y=f(X)Y=f(X)– What is What is YY??– What is What is XX? (…or What are the ? (…or What are the XX?)?)– What is What is f(f())??

Hypothesis: a statement about Hypothesis: a statement about how we think the world works.how we think the world works.

Relates Relates xx to to y.y.

Causality and CorrelatiCausality and Correlationon Causal explanations are desirableCausal explanations are desirable

– ““I hypothesize that I hypothesize that xx “causes” “causes” yy But are difficult to makeBut are difficult to make

– ““Stochasticity” (The World is Stochasticity” (The World is Probablistic!)Probablistic!)

– Correlation (“Co-Relation”) is Correlation (“Co-Relation”) is sometimes the best we can dosometimes the best we can do

Next TimeNext Time

Theory, Hypotheses, and Theory, Hypotheses, and MeasurementMeasurement