The Rug Rat Race

By

Garey Ramey&

Valerie A. Ramey

Overview of Paper We show that after trending downward for three decades, time

spent in childcare in the U.S. began to increase dramatically in the mid-1990s, particularly for educated parents.

We test and reject numerous existing explanations, such as selection, income effects, safety concerns, enjoyment, and work schedules

We find that education and extracurricular activities account for

an important part of the increase in childcare time.

We present a new explanation for the sharp run-up in childcare time:

Increased competition for college admission has led to a “Rug Rat Race”

We show that childcare time did not change much in Canada, where competition for college admission is much less than in the U.S.

12 U.S. Time Use Surveys # of parents

“1965-66 Americans’ Use of Time” Survey Research Center †

1,196

“1975-76 Time Use in Economic and Social Accounts”Survey Research Center †

3,354

“1985 Americans’ Use of Time” Survey Research Center †

928

“National Human Activity Pattern Survey” (1992-1994)Survey Research Center †

1,629

“1995 Electric Power Research Institute Study”EPRI †

478

“Family Interaction, Social Capital, and Trends in Time Use”Survey Research Center † (1998)

456

“National Survey of Parents” (2000)Survey Research Center †

974

“American Time Use Survey” 2003-2007Bureau of Labor Statistics

03: 7,771 06: 5,26404: 5,082 07: 4,85905: 5,335

U.S. Data Used

Estimation Details

1. Definition of childcare: Basic childcare, helping, organizing activities for, teaching to, talking, reading, playing with, medical care, dealing with day care providers, travel related to childcare

2. Samples: Age 18-64, not student, “Mother” and “Father” are

defined as having a child under 18 in the household.

3. Controls: baseline controls for parents’ age, year of survey and college education interaction.

Extra (available 1975, 2000, 2003-2007): marital status, quadratic in # of children, 6 dummies for age of youngest child

Weekly Childcare by Mothers(Ages 25-34)

1012

1416

1820

22ho

urs

per

wee

k

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005year

college-educated less than college

Note: most estimates from the mid-1990s are statistically different from 1975 and college-educated estimates are statistically different from less educated estimates.

Weekly Childcare by Fathers(Ages 25-34)

46

810

hour

s pe

r w

eek

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005year

college-educated less than college

Effects of Adding Additional Controls

Increase in Childcare Time, Average 2003-2007 relative to 1975

Less-educated mothers

College-educated mothers

Less-educated fathers

College-educated fathers

Controls only for parent’s age

4.3 9.6 3.3 5.3

Full set of controls

4.0 9.3 3.4 4.8

The full set of controls includes: dummies for parent’s age, marital status, quadratic in the number of children, five dummy variables for age of youngest child.

Trends in Categories of Childcare

What types of childcare have increased the most?

To ensure comparability, we use only the 1965, 1975, 1985, 1995, 1998, and 2000 time use surveys because they have:

-Same activity codes

-Allow reasonable controls, such as the number of young children

Types of Childcare

Care of older children

Care of young children

Activities & travel EducationPlay

-4-2

02

4h

ou

rs p

er

we

ek

1965 1975 1985 1995year

Less-educated mothers

-4-2

02

4h

ou

rs p

er

we

ek

1965 1975 1985 1995year

College-educated mothers

Types of Childcare

Care of older children

Care of young children

Activities & travel EducationPlay

-2-1

01

23

ho

urs

pe

r w

ee

k

1965 1975 1985 1995year

Less-educated fathers

-2-1

01

23

ho

urs

pe

r w

ee

k

1965 1975 1985 1995year

College-educated fathers

Mothers with children 5 yrs and over, 2007

0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5hours per week

Chauffering

Organizing & attending activities

Health care (incl. travel)

Playing

Educating (incl. travel)

Physical care, supervising

less than college college-educated

Existing explanations for the rise in childcare

1. Sample selection

2. Income effects

3. Safety concerns

4. Enjoyment

5. More flexible work schedules

1. Sample Selection

“Because parenthood is more of a choice now, those

who decide to become parents are those who want to

put more time into parenthood.”

Test of hypothesis: Has childcare time changed when we average over the entire adult population, including nonparents?

Test for Sample Selection

68

10

12

ho

urs

pe

r w

ee

k

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005year

All women

12

34

5h

ou

rs p

er

we

ek

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005year

All men

2. Income Effects

“A positive childcare-income gradient might explain the

increase in childcare over time as well as the difference

by education level.”

Test of hypothesis: Can the cross-sectional relationship between childcare time and household income explain the time trends?

Pooled cross-section data from 2003-2007

Full set of controls, including richer education dummies: high school dropout, college graduate, post-college.

Can the 30 % ($21,000) increase in real household income since 1975 explain the increase in childcare?

No.

Income Income squared Income-induced increased childcare

from 1975 to 2007

Sample Usual hours of work included

0.0088(0.0057)

-0.000013(0.000013)

0.14 hours

All No

0.0273(0.007)**

-0.000057(0.000016)**

0.39 hours

All Yes

0.0387(0.012)**

-0.000082(0.000027)**

0.54 hours

Home-makers

No

Mothers: Regression of Childcare Time On Household Income

(income in thousands of $2007, childcare in hours per week)

3. Safety

“Increased crime rates made parents afraid to allow children to play unsupervised in the neighborhood. They enrolled them in organized activities instead.”

20

04

00

60

08

00

vio

lcri

me

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005year

Violent Crime Rates

4. Enjoyment

“Childcare is an enjoyable activity, and thus is much more like leisure than other home production activities.”

Counter-evidence:

a. In the Krueger, et al. surveys, basic childcare ranks below cooking and housework for women according to their unpleasantness index.

b. When we exclude playing with children from our childcare measures, the increase is somewhat smaller but still significant. The increase in play accounts for 3 of the 9 hour increase for college-educated mothers and 1 of the 4 hour increase for less-educated mothers.

5. More Flexible Work Schedules

“Parents today have more flexible work schedules, so they can spend more time on childcare.”

Less than college College Educated

Working mother 4.6 7.8

Stay-at-home mother

5.8 16.3

Change in time spent in childcare from 1975 to 2007

Hours per week

Could the increase in time spent in childcare be linked to the increased competition to get into college?

• “The already crazed competition for admission to the nation’s most prestigious universities and colleges became even more intense this year, with many logging record low acceptance rates.” (New York Times, April 1, 2008)

• “Attending the local public university is no longer a birthright. An explosion in applications has allowed the schools to reject students in record numbers.” (CollegeJournal from the Wall Street Journal, November 14, 2006)

• “Middle- and upper-income families became engaged in an arms race with their neighbors to prepare their children for college (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, July 22, 2006)

Another Possible Explanation: The “Rug Rat Race”

Increased Demand For College Slots in the U.S.22

0024

0026

0028

0030

0032

00th

ousa

nds

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005year

High School Graduates

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

year

Recent HS Grads Enrolled in College

Demand for college has increased in part because the returns to going to college have increased substantially in the last three decades.

Bound and Turner (2007) show that the supply of slots at 4-year colleges does not respond as much to demand.

Why Demand for College is Growing

College Premium in Wages in U.S.Full-Time, Full-Year Workers, Ages 22-64

.4.5

.6.7

log

diffe

rent

ial

1963 1973 1983 1993 2003year

Men

.35

.4.4

5.5

.55

.6lo

g di

ffere

ntia

l

1963 1973 1983 1993 2003year

Women

Effect on Parents’ and Students’ Behavior

American Academy of Pediatrics (2007):

“ The college-admissions process has become much more rigorous in recent years, large because of a baby boom hitting the college years. Parents receive the message that if their children are not well prepared, well balanced, and high-achieving, they will not get a desired spot in higher education. Even parents who wish to take a lower-key approach to child rearing fear slowing down when they perceive everyone else is on the fast track. Children are encouraged to build a college resume through both academic excellence and a wide variety of activities and volunteer efforts starting at younger ages…The pressure for admission to select schools begins for some families long before college. Selection for private preschool programs can even be competitive, and parents may need to consider how best to ‘package’ their preschoolers.”

Theory: Intuition

• Higher-educated parents have a comparative advantage in investing in their children, but they also have a higher opportunity cost

• When slots at first-tier colleges are relatively plentiful, the marginal slots are filled by children of less-educated parents

• When first-tier slots become relatively scarce, rivalry for the marginal slots shifts to the better-educated parents

• A “rug rat race” among these parents drives up both admissions requirements and the time spent on childcare

Time Paths of College Preparation Effect of rise in both college premium and # of high school graduates

Comparison between U.S. and Canada

1. Canada and the U.S. share a great deal in terms of culture and sociology.

If the source of the increase in childcare time in the U.S. is sociological, we would expect Canada to be subject to the similar influences.

2. However, the returns to college have increased more in the U.S. than in Canada.

• Between 1980 and 2000, the college wage premium in Canada rose between 5 – 10 percentage points (Boudarbat, Lemieux, and Riddell (2006)

• In the U.S., it rose more than 25 percentage points (Autor, Katz, and Kearney (2008).

Comparison between U.S. and Canada

3. The competition to get into college is completely different in Canada (Davies and Hammack (2005)

U.S. higher education is very hierarchical. Public believes that where you go to college really matters.

Competition on SATs, APs, high school activities

Canada: no SATs, no hierarchy, more emphasis on major than college.

Our Theory’s Prediction

Time spent on childcare should have increased much

less in Canada than in the U.S., particularly among

the college-educated.

To test this, we use the GSS 1986, 1992, 1998, and

2005 for English-speaking households.

02

46

8h

ou

rs p

er

we

ek

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005year

Canada US

Less-Educated Mothers

02

46

8h

ou

rs p

er

we

ek

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005year

Canada US

College-Educated Mothers0

24

6h

ou

rs p

er

we

ek

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005year

Canada US

Less-Educated Fathers

02

46

ho

urs

pe

r w

ee

k

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005year

Canada US

College-Educated Fathers

Conclusions

• Dramatic rise in childcare time among the college-educated in the U.S., but not in Canada

• Most of the rise occurred since the early 1990s.

• At the same time, competition to get into college increased

• Our theory predicts that increased competition for college leads to a “rug rat race” which drives up both admissions requirements and the time spent on childcare.