The Roots and Future ofWater Conflicts in the Middle East

Mark ZeitounWater Security Research CentreSchool of Intern’l DevelopmentUniversity of East Anglia

m.zeitoun@uea.ac.uk

Environmental & Water Resources Engineering Program +Interfaculty Graduate Environmental Science Program

in collaboration with The Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs

16 December 2009

Present:

Law of the jungle, where basin hegemons rule(equitable sharing not on the agenda)

Future:

Status quo

or

All worse off [drivers]

or

All better off [equitability]

Present:

Law of the jungle, where basin hegemons rule(equitable sharing not on the agenda)

Future:

Status quo

or

All worse off [drivers]

or

All better off [equitability]

Outcomes of Water Conflicts

Upstream Position?

Basin Share?

Water Ethics?

International Norms?

Power?

What determines outcomes of water conflicts?

Turkey

Syria

Iraq

Iran

Upstream PositionUpstream Position

But Lebanon

on al Kbir + el Asi?But Lebanon

on al Kbir + el Asi?

Basin ShareBasin Share

But Jordan on Jordan River?But Jordan on Jordan River?

Basin ShareBasin Share

Syria

Jordan

Israel

WestBank

Lebanon

Jordan RiverBasin

Water Ethics / PeacebuildingWater Ethics / Peacebuilding

But extreme asymmetry and

water conflict continues…But extreme asymmetry and

water conflict continues…Friends of the Earth Middle East

International Water Law: 1997 UN Watercourses Convention gives the rules of customary international law: International Water Law: 1997 UN Watercourses Convention gives the rules of customary international law:

‘no significant harm’; ‘prior notification’

“Equitable and Reasonable utilization”:

geographical, hydrological

social and economic needs

populations dependent on the watercourse

existing and potential use

availability of alternatives

‘no significant harm’; ‘prior notification’

“Equitable and Reasonable utilization”:

geographical, hydrological

social and economic needs

populations dependent on the watercourse

existing and potential use

availability of alternatives

Human Right to Water – Amnesty International, Human Rights WatchHuman Right to Water – Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch

International Water NormsInternational Water Norms

Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and

‘Palestine’ all signatories…

But the long arm of the law is short…Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and

‘Palestine’ all signatories…

But the long arm of the law is short…

Turkey

Syria

Iraq

Iran

PowerPower

power

POWER and HEGEMONY

‘The most potent weapon in the hands of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed’

Stephen Biko

Conceptualising ‘Power’Conceptualising ‘Power’

A. Influence the powerfulPositive-sum outcomesBenefit-sharingEncourage leadership

B. Level the playing field, and the players

International Water Law Fair water-sharing principlesEffective regulationCapacity building

Confronting Power AsymmetryConfronting Power Asymmetry

THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI WATER CONFLICT -

ROOTS

1922-19481948-19671967-present

1964

1995

source Palestine IsraelJordan River 0 100Wadi al Fara’ 5 95Wadi Gaza 2 98Eastern Aquif. 60 40N.Eastern Aquif. 35 65Western Aquif. 6 94Coastal Aquif. 35 65OVERALL 10% 90%

SUMMARY OF ALLOCATION SUMMARY OF ALLOCATION

2” line from Yatta supplying four Palestinian villages (Umm al Khiyar, ‘Arab as Saray’a, Arab al Ka’abneh Najdada, Birket Khamsin al Karm)

8” line from Israel supplying Karmel settlement industrial livestock activities

Asymmetry Manifested - 1Asymmetry Manifested - 1

Power and 

Hegemony u

sed to creat

e and 

maintain ineq

uitable outc

ome

Power and 

Hegemony u

sed to creat

e and 

maintain ineq

uitable outc

ome

Asymmetry Manifested - 2Asymmetry Manifested - 2

1995 “Oslo II” Agreement

Desalination for the West Bank?Ideational Power(+ consent)Ideational Power(+ consent)

Hard PowerHard Power1967 Military Conquest 3 military orders

1967–95 Occupation dual development of West Bank: min. for Palestinians, max. for settlers

1967 onwards superior pumping capacity

2001 onwards Damages to Water Infrastructure

1995 “Oslo II” Agreement The Joint Water Committee Bargaining Power

(+ consent)Bargaining Power(+ consent)

How power was usedHow power was used

THE JORDAN RIVER WATER CONFLICT

Syria

Jordan

Israel

WestBank

LebanonJordan River

Basin

Jordan River water conflictJordan River water conflict

Natural Contributions Current Inequitable Distribution

Jordan River water conflictJordan River water conflict

Equal per capita: towards legal shares….

Jordan River water conflictJordan River water conflict

THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI WATER CONFLICT -

FUTURE?

Madrid (1991)

Oslo Process (1993 +)

Road Map (2002)

Annapolis (2008)

‘Ec’c Peace’ (current)

Madrid (1991)

Oslo Process (1993 +)

Road Map (2002)

Annapolis (2008)

‘Ec’c Peace’ (current)

Negotiations maintaining inequityNegotiations maintaining inequity

Perpetuate the current inequitable allocation and provide funding for ‘new

water’ to enhance Palestine’s share

New

New

Isra

el

Pale

stin

e

Isra

el

Pale

stin

e

Ove

rall

Wat

er A

lloca

tion

Israeli positionIsraeli position(Annapolis 2008)

I. Reallocate the existing water resources, generating equitable allocations, and ending the water conflict

Isra

el

Pale

stin

e

Isra

el

Pale

stin

e

Ove

rall

Wat

er A

lloca

tion

Palestinian solution - IPalestinian solution - I(Annapolis 2008)

II. Develop and allocate the ‘new water’

Isra

el

Pale

stin

e

Isra

el

Pale

stin

e

Ove

rall

Wat

er A

lloca

tion

New

New

‘Positive-sum outcome’:

Desalination

Wastewater Re-use

International Water Law

Development of alternatives… and

‘outside the box’ thinking .

‘Positive-sum outcome’:

Desalination

Wastewater Re-use

International Water Law

Development of alternatives… and

‘outside the box’ thinking .

Palestinian solution – IIPalestinian solution – II(Annapolis 2008)

THE JORDAN RIVER WATER CONFLICT -

FUTURE?

Options for Equitable distribution of Jordan River system

More work to be done….

4-Riparian Jordan River Initiative (IFI – AUB)

ESCWAFriends of Abd el Al

+ all of us…

More work to be done….

4-Riparian Jordan River Initiative (IFI – AUB)

ESCWAFriends of Abd el Al

+ all of us…

Towards Jordan River conflict resolutionTowards Jordan River conflict resolution

Phillips, D. et. al.

1. Understand the power that prevails,Counter it:

Development of alternative solutionsLevel the playersLevel the playing field

2. For Lebanon:Leverage upstream positionUnderstand hydrology / hydrogeologyTransboundary waters into National Water StrategyRed Sea – Dead Sea CanalContinue to push for International Water Law

1. Understand the power that prevails,Counter it:

Development of alternative solutionsLevel the playersLevel the playing field

2. For Lebanon:Leverage upstream positionUnderstand hydrology / hydrogeologyTransboundary waters into National Water StrategyRed Sea – Dead Sea CanalContinue to push for International Water Law

Steps towards equitable sharingSteps towards equitable sharing

Law of the Jungle

or

All worse off

or

All better off

?

Law of the Jungle

or

All worse off

or

All better off

?

The Future (last slide)The Future (last slide)

Thank-you.m.zeitoun@uea.ac.uk

www.arij.orgwww.phg.org

www.foeme.orgwww.un.org/law/ilc/texts/

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