the role of weather and climate service innovation in adaptation to climate change atte harjanne,...
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The Role of Weather and Climate Service Innovation in Adaptation to Climate
ChangeAtte Harjanne, Adriaan Perrels, Väinö Nurmi & Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola
Finnish Meteorological InstitutePresented by: Atte Harjanne
TOPDAD - Tool-supported policy development for regional adaptation
Modeling costs and benefits of different adaptation policies in transport, energy
and tourism sectors in Europe
Background
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Services and products that consist of information about past, present or future weather or climate, their impacts or possible adaption or mitigation actions to manage these impacts.
How do advances in weather and climate services affect adaptation to climate change?
What are the likely advances in the supply and use of these services (especially in transport, energy and tourism sectors)?
Literature review 23 semi-structured expert interviews
Statistical user analysisEconomic modeling excercises
Methods
Adaptation to climate change
Reducing exposure Reducing vulnerability Improving resilience
Strategic / Structural
Comprehensive physical protection
Climate services: +Weather services: ?
Enhanced physical protection
Climate services ++Weather services:+
Enhanced societal preparedness
Climate services: ++Weather services: ?
Operational / Adaptive
Spatial/temporal substitution (avoidance)
Climate services:+Weather services:++
Tailored anticipatory technology
Climate services: +Weather services: ++
Enhanced societal responsiveness
Climate services: +Weather services: ++
Weather and climate services are critical for adaptation actions, whether they are proactive or reactive, endogenous or planned, or if the impacts are permanent or transient.
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Or are they?
Reduction in data related
unit-costsThird party access to
observation and model
data
Policies and regulation
Network and data
integration
Improved capacity and increased
optionsto adapt
Market transformation
Drivers and enablers of innovation
Drivers of innovation
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Reduction in data related
unit-costs
Third party access to
observation and model data
Network and data
integration
- Improved accuracy (historical trend: 1 day / decade)- Improved resolution in time and space- Broader observation coverage
- Also from consumer mobile devices- Broader offering of services- New time scales:
- Nowcasting- Seasonal forecasting
- More accurate, available, tailored information improved options and capability to adapt
Policy dependency
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
• Weather and climate services largely science based innovators (Pavitt, 1984). Reliance on public funding and infrastructure• Supercomputers, satellites, radars…• Private actors half-hearted to invest• Also regulation necessary for many of the envisioned services
• Mobile congestion• Standardisation needs• Privacy issues
Policies and regulation
Market transformation• Fragmentation of value network• New roles of national services
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
New technology – new behavior (1)
New technology – new behavior (2)
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Serv
ice
user
s co
mpa
red
to
daily
ave
rage
% of popoulation in the activity
Identified innovations – Transport
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
• High spatial resolution road weather models useful for both drivers, route planners and road clearance planners • Comprehensive interactive intelligent road weather projection and information system informing and if need be instructing both driver and vehicle
• Further development of ship routing services, with new variables added such as water depth
• Further development regarding storm warnings and storm routes for aviation, high (3D) spatial resolution projections and nowcasts for airports’ airspace
Identified innovations – Energy
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
• High spatial and temporal resolution projections (overland) for electricity demand relevant parameters (temperature, insolation, wind speed, humidity)
• High spatial and temporal resolution projections for wind speed both on-shore and off-shore at relevant axle heights
• Improvements in projections of effective (on the ground) solar radiation
Identified innovations – Tourism
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
• Further development in localized multi-feature (and multi-day) forecasts for specific tourist groups and tourism entrepreneurs, and improvement of its access / dissemination – possibly in conjunction with other information portals (e.g. local event lists for the coming days)
Weather Service Chain Analysis
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
1. ACCURACY - the extent to which weather forecast information is accurate2. APPROPRIATE DATA - the extent to which weather forecast information contains appropriate
data for a potential user3. ACCESS - the extent to which a decision maker has (timely) access to weather forecast
information4. COMPREHENSION - the extent to which a decision maker adequately understands weather
forecast information5. ABILITY TO RESPOND - the extent to which a decision maker can use weather forecast
information to effectively adapt behaviour 6. EFFECTIVINESS OF RESPONSE - the extent to which recommended responses actually help to
avoid damage due to unfavourable weather information7. OVERALL BENEFIT - the extent to which benefits from adapted action or decision are
transferred to other economic agents
Estimating the value – Cost-Loss & WSCA
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Katz & Murphy (1997)
Nurmi et al. (2013)
Including innovations
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Perrels et al. (2013)
Innovations in road transport could be worth 20 ME per year (Finland)
Conclusions & further research
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
• The future looks promising but needs some help
• Further research:• Economic quantification: ARIO, agent-based modeling (ETH Zürich)• More insight on the behavioral response needed
• Can there be too much information?• What is the optimal level of tailoring and automation?
Further readingPerrels, A., Harjanne, A., Nurmi, V., Pilli-Sihvola, K., Heyndricx, C. and Stahel, A. (2013), Sector specific and generic impacts of enhanced weather and climate services in a changing climate -The contribution of weather and climate service innovations in adaptation to climate change and its assessment, TOPDAD project deliverable D2.2. Available online: www.topdad.eu
Harjanne, A., Ervasti, T. (2014) Analysis of user trends and behavior in online and mobile weather and climate services, FMI report (upcoming)
Pilli-Sihvola K., Nurmi V., Perrels A., Harjanne A., Bösch P., Ciari F.(2014) Innovations in weather services as a crucial building block for climate change adaptation in road transport (submitted, EJTIR Special Issue)
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
Katz, R.W. and Murphy, A.H. (1997), Economic value of weather and climate forecasts, Cambridge University Press, U.K.
Nurmi, P., Perrels, A., Nurmi, V. (2013), Expected impacts and value of improvements in weather forecasting on the road transport sector, Meteorological Applications, Vol 20, Iss. 2, pp. 217 – 223.
Pavitt, K. (1984), Sectoral Patterns of technical change: Towards a taxonomy and a theory, Research Policy, Vol. 13, pp. 343-373.
Perrels, A., Harjanne, A., Nurmi, V., Pilli-Sihvola, K., Heyndricx, C. and Stahel, A. (2013), Sector specific and generic impacts of enhanced weather and climate services in a changing climate -The contribution of weather and climate service innovations in adaptation to climate change and its assessment, TOPDAD project deliverable D2.2. Available online: www.topdad.eu
Pielke Jr , R. A. , Sarewitz , D. and Byerly Jr , R. 2000 . ‘Decision making and the future of nature: understanding and using predictions’, in Sarewitz , D. , Pielke Jr , R. A. and Byerly Jr , R. (eds.) Prediction: Science, Decision Making and the Future of Nature. Washington, DC : Island Press , pp. 361 –387
References
Atte Harjanne, The World Weather Open Science Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16 to 21 August, 2014
