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The Role of the Mainframe in Tomorrow’s Enterprise
Andrew ButlerVice President & Distinguished Analyst
High Capacity+ Processor+ I/O bandwidth+ Scalability
Mixed Workloads
Reliability, Availability and Serviceability + Hardware+ Software
Security+ Hardware+ Software+ Integrity
Operational Disciplines+ 24/7+ Disaster/recovery+ Security+ Backup/recovery
System Management
Perceived Shortcomings– High hardware costs– High software costs– Proprietary operating system– Not user-friendly
What Continues to Make the Mainframe Unique?
Energy EfficiencyGreen Credentials
Positive Outcomes from Mainframe Market Trends
• Installed MIPS growth has averaged 10 to 20 percent per year (lets forget 2009!)
• MIPS Growth (& Revenue) driven by applications not on the mainframe ten years ago
• Top 25 (World) Banks, 23 of the top 25 (U.S.) retailers, 9 of the 10 largest (WW) Insurance providers use IBM mainframes
• Linux on z – approx. 20% of net new MIPS being shipped• Over 1,300 ISVs on System z today• Over 500 ISVs and 3,000+ Applications for Linux on System z• Facilities (power/cooling) now a mainframe competitive strength• Leader in security, business resiliency, virtualization & utilization• Academic Initiatives –
- 600+ universities teach some mainframe courses- 20,000 new skills by 2010 (org. goal) - over 50,000 have taken at
least some mainframe courses
Principal Mainframe Market Concerns
• Some organizations (mostly small organizations) leave the platform each year (but partly allayed by growth of first-time customers)
• Fewer IBM mainframes installed worldwide as ten years ago• IBM is left alone to promote the new business potential of the
mainframe• ISVs reluctantly and slowly adopting sub-capacity software pricing
algorithms - Priorities not necessarily the same
• Worries about graying of the mainframe skill set• TCO not usually competitive on a single application comparison• Perceptions hard to overcome: Slower to deploy, overly complex,
proprietary, ISV lethargy, “not cool”
Single Largest Inhibitor to Mainframe Growth Within Data Centers
4%
18%
32%
8%
16%
2%
0%
20%
Å Hardware costs
Ç IBM software costs
É Third-party software costs
Ñ Portfolio of the third-party applications
Ö Graying of the skill set/ availability of trained mainfram
Ü Sole source concerns
á Perceived complexity of the mainframe
à Management perception that the mainframe is outdated
49 Voted
Server Market in Numbers – Recovery Underway but Volatility in Many Segments
SubSegment
2009
Revenue
2010
Revenue
2009
Share
2010
Share
2010
Growth
Windows (Server) 5,744.7 6,176.7 50.4% 51.2% 7.5%
HP-UX 998.2 1,035.0 8.8% 8.6% 3.7%
IBM AIX 940.9 1,027.9 8.2% 8.5% 9.2%
Linux (Server) 872.3 1,016.7 7.6% 8.4% 16.6%
IBM System z 910.6 936.5 8.0% 7.8% 2.8%
Oracle Solaris 774.6 749.7 6.8% 6.2% -3.2%
Other Proprietary OS 751.2 730.4 6.6% 6.1% -2.8%
IBM System i 311.5 319.8 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
Other Proprietary Unix 103.4 62.5 0.9% 0.5% -39.6%
Grand Total 11,407.5 12,055.1 100.0% 100.0% 5.7%
IBM Mainframe Market Has Always Been a Cyclical Story
Mainframe Hardware Revenue Growth Year Over Year
Percentage change,
as reported
Mainframe Capacity Shipments Year Over Year
-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%50%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-40%-20%
0%20%40%60%80%
100%120%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Percentage change,
as reported
1Q2Q3Q4Q
2010
2010
The Server Landscape Is Changing Fast for Vendors and Users Alike
1H0893%
1H086% 1H08
1%
1H1091%
1H108%
1H101%
OracleUnix Linux Windows
Operating System Revenue Shares of the Traditional System Vendors
Other = Mainly z/OS, plus IBM "I." Also
some minor x86 OS
Other = Mostly OpenVMS & NSK. Also some minor
x86 OS
IBM's Specialty Engines: The Catalyst for Growth
• Introduced in 2004• Java workloads initially• Applicability now expanding• z890, z990, z9, z10, and z196• Starting with z10 merge with zIIP
• Introduced in 2006 • System z9 and z10 and z196• Initially certain database workloads• Applicability expanding to other uses• ISV support
• Introduced in 2000• 9672 through zEnterprise 196• Went from 127 MIPS in 2000 to
approximately 1200 MIPS in 2010
zIIP
IFL
zAAP
• Lower hardware prices — now including memory!• Investment protection on upgrades• Lower software costs — IBM and third party• Create room for legacy applications to grow• No additional staffing• Continued expansion of use
More than 500 ISVs and 3,000+ applications for Linux on z
Linux on z — more than 20% of MIPS being shipped
Specialty engines (MIPS) — now >20% of installed base
Mainframe Price & Performance Trends: Two Paths Diverge
IBM Cost per MIPS
General Purpose
Special Purpose
0%
40%
80%
120%
20%
60%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20092007 2008
Desire For Use of Open Standards
0
1,000
2,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
500
1,500
IFLs Shipped
0
1,000
3,000
2003 2005 2007 2009
500
1,500
Installed Base — Linux MIPS
2,000
2,500 000 of MIPS
Growth in Linux on System z
Also: Growth in Java on System zü zAAPüJava performance
ü IFL’s equal 17% of WW installed mainframe MIPSü 30-35% of System z users have IFLs installed
What percentage of your mainframe MIPS installed today are represented by IBM's specialty engines:
35%
26%
18%
8%
13%
Å 0%
Ç 1-10%
É 11-20%
Ñ 21-30%
Ö Above 30% 38 Voted
5%
15%
19%
15%
10%
13%
5%
18%
Å The upfront costs of the hardware
Ç Our software license costs would not benefit from a mainfram
É The apps are not supported on the mainframe
Ñ Management does not want us putting more work on the main
Ö We do not believe the workloads will run well on the mainfram
Ü IBM has not provided us enough performance information to m
á The granularity of the IBM specialty engines makes it difficult
à Our Linux people are opposed to putting Linux on the mainfra
39 Voted
What is the single largest inhibitor to your organization using Linux on z:
Market Reaction to Specialty Engines
zEnterprise Unified Resource Manager
§ Unifies management of resources using HMC§ Part of the IBM System Director family,
provides platform, hardware andworkload management
zEnterprise BladeCenter
Extension (zBX)
IBM zEnterprise™ 196 (z196)
§ Selected IBM POWER7™
blades and IBM System x®
Blades*§ Up to 112 blades
configured for HA§ Consistent
toolset for management§ Dynamic
management across platforms
zEnterprise: A New Fabric
Management Network
Data Network
zEnterprise BladeCenter Extension (zBX)• Two types of functions Provided
- Accelerator/Appliance Blade support (Model 001 – z10, Model 002 – z196)• Smart Analytics Optimizer for DB2 accelerator• WebSphere DataPower Appliance (SOD 1H11)
- Cross platform management (Model 002 – z196 only) • Power7 blades with AIX (No Linux support)• x86 blades using Linux (no Windows support at launch, but planned for 2H11)
• zManager Firmware in z196
- Uses consolidated Hardware Management Console- Uses PowerVM for AIX blades and KVM for x86 blades (download from firmware)- Infrastructure Management (two levels)
Manage (core operational controls, installation, configuration)
- Operational controls- Virtual server provisioning- Virtual network provisioning- Hypervisor Management- Energy Management
Automate (Goal oriented monitoring/management of resources)
- Performance monitoring and reporting- Workload context- Performance management- Energy controls- Advanced energy management- Availability monitoring and reporting- Availability management
The Fabric Path Forces Packaging and Implementation Decisions
Note: There is no ideal approach to fabric integration. Many dependencies can exist.
Verti
cal I
nteg
ratio
n
Buy and AssembleBest-of-Breed
Heterogeneous(eg: Most
blade servers)
Stepwise IncrementalModular Integration(eg: Cisco, Dell, HP)
Fabric ResourcePool Manager
Management Suite
Compute Platform
Data Center Switches
Corporate Network
Virtualization Layer
Operating System
Middleware Stack
DBMS
Application Stack
Horizontal Integration
Prepackaged and Tested (eg: VCE, Oracle, HP, IBM)
Fully Integrated Stack(eg: Oracle, HP, IBM)
Storage
Creating a Technology Dependency Matrix for Fabric Based Infrastructure
Mainframe security, availability, and scale…..priced to be competitive with UNIX alternatives
• Building on the Solution Edition for SAP• Special package pricing for IBM’s most popular
solutions- z10 HW (standalone footprint or isolated LPAR)- Prepaid HW maintenance- Comprehensive middleware stack (including S&S)- Services and Storage (as needed)
• Utilizing Mainframe quality:- System quality, security, availability and scale - Integration of applications with corporate data- Industry leading virtualization, management and resource
provisioning- Designed for Investment protection
• Competitive acquisition prices & TCO
§Data Warehousing
§SAP
§ACI
§WebSphere
§Security
§GDPS
§Application Development
System z Solution Editions
Cloud Computing:A style of computing
where massively scalable IT-enabled
capabilities are delivered as a
service to external customers using
Internet technologies
Acquisition ModelService
Business ModelPay for usage
Technical ModelScalable, elastic, shareable
Access ModelInternet
Private Cloud Drivers• Low barrier to entry• Elastic and Scalable• Lower cost and pay per use• Increased agility (to customers)• Ease of sourcing migations• Many cloud benefits – reduced risk
Public Cloud Drivers• Scale on demand• Increased agility and flexibility• Pay per use• Higher compute capacities• Elasticity• Time to market
Why Can't System z be the Underlying Infrastructure for Cloud Computing?
Schools in
programYE03 24YE04 70YE05 213YE06 294YE 07 400+YE 08 500+YE 09 600+
Graying of the Mainframe Staff
• IBM's program now more than six years old• Number of higher education
schools growing• Be wary of student numbers• Mastery exam is the key metric• In the meantime:
- Get HR involved- Invest in college relationships- Online course credits- Encourage mentoring assignments- Do your own in-house training
and cross-training to enable flexible staff use- Talk to your ISVs
IBM's Academic Initiative Is Showing Results….
TCO — Easy to Spell, Hard to Calculate• Reliability/availability• Security• Redundancy• Recoverability • Impact of planned outages• Environmental characteristics
(space, power, cooling)• Take a multigenerational view!• Time to deploy and time to refresh• Scalability• Consolidation capability• Governance/inventory control• Change management controls• Application interoperability• Test and development• Cost of changing platform
Policy Regarding Non-x86 Platforms & Rationalization of Server Architecture?
7%
25%
26%
20%
10%
12%
No architectural standards/policies
Only x86 is strategic
Phasing out Unix in favor of x86 or mainframe
No mainframes; Unix and x86 both strategic
Phasing out mainframe in favor of x86 or Unix
Mainframe, Unix & x86 all strategic
Define — and Police — Your Own OS& Architecture Standards
Enterprise-Critical OLTP, Data Warehouse and Corporate Databases
Application ServersCompute CrunchersBack-Office ApplicationsVirtualized/Consolidation HostsHVDs (Hosted Virtual Desktops)
Web ServersDepartmental SystemsBranch OfficesPoint of Sale
ImmovableMainframe
Installed Base Portfolio
Migrations &New Projects
The IT Market Clock for Servers
"time to next phase"
<2 years
2-5 years
5-10 years
>10 years
End of life
Disfavored Phase• Reducing supplier choice• Increasing costs• Falling availability
of relevant skillsFocus on: Replacement
Commoditized Phase
Focus on: Cost
• Industrialized and modularized offerings
• High level of substitution• Competitive pricing
Mass-Customized Phase
Focus on: Choice
• Growing standardization• Growing competition/falling
prices
Customized Phase
Focus on: Advantage
• Value/innovation focus• Delivers differentiation• Proprietary, high cost• Requires skill and expertise
What Word Best Describes the Mainframe?
Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via e-mail: [email protected]. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
The Role of the Mainframe in Tomorrow’s Enterprise
Andrew ButlerVice President & Distinguished Analyst