© Fraunhofer ISE

The Role of Solar Energy in our Future

Energy System

Eicke R. Weber,

Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

and

Albert-Ludwigs University, Freiburg, Germany

General Lecture, University of Stellenbosch

Stellenbosch, SA, January 24, 2014

© Fraunhofer ISE

2

Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

Largest European Solar Energy Research Institute

Topic: Technologies for the Energy Transformation

More than 1300 members of staff (incl. students)

Business Areas:

• Energy - Efficient Buildings

• Silicon Photovoltaics (PV)

• III/V & Concentrator PV

• Dye-, OPV & other novel PV

• PV Modules & Power Plants

• Solar Thermal Technologies

• Hydrogen, FC Technologies

• System Integration, Grid

• Efficient Power Electronics

• Emission-free Mobility

• Storage Systems

• Energy System Analysis

15% basic financing

85% contract research

30% industry, 55% public

€ 84 M budget (‘13)

• ISE Freiburg

• CSP Halle (with IWM)

• THM Freiberg (with IISB)

• LSC Gelsenkirchen

• CSE Boston (Fh-USA)

© Fraunhofer ISE

3

A radical transformation of our energy system is needed – Jeremy Rifkin: We are starting the 3rd Industrial Revolution!

The world has to transform to living in a

sustainable way!

Limited availability of fossil fuels

Danger of catastrophic climate change

Risk of nuclear disasters

Growing dependency on imports from

politically unstable regions

Economic advantages get noticable

Important aspects to take into account:

The transformation needs time and money

Technological development

Capacity building

Investments in infrastructure

Industrialized countries and countries with

high consumption per capita must lead!

The world is getting warmer

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Cornerstones for the transformation of our energy system

Energy Efficiency: Buildings, Production, Transport

Massive increase renewable energies Photovoltaics, Solar and geo thermal, wind, hydro, biomass.....

Fast development of the electric grid Transmission and distribution grid, bidirectional

Small and large scale energy storage systems Electricity, Hydrogen, Methane, Biogas, Solar Heat

Mobility as integral part of the energy system Electric mobility by means of batteries and hydrogen/fuel cells

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Example: Scenario for 100% Renewable Energy Supply

till 2050 in Germany

Strong decrease of heat demand from

buildings (energy renovations,

‘zero-energy’ houses

Increase of combined-cycle heat/power

plants

Thermal storage for heating and cooling

Coupling of electricity grid and gas pipelines through production of regenerative hydrogen and methan

Introduction of e-mobility with battery- and fuel cell powered cars

Use of liquid biofuels, especially for heavy trucks and air traffic

Key Features:

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Year 2012

Total* 22.9%

136.1 TWh

PV 4.7%

28.0 TWh

32.6 GW

Bio 6.9%

40.9 TWh

Wind 7.7%

46.0 TWh

31.3 GW

Hydro 3.6%

21.2 TWh

* Brutto electricity

demand

Electricity generation from renewable energy sources Development in Germany 1990 – 2012

© Fraunhofer ISE

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World Energy Resources (1Twy = 8760 TWhr)

Source: R. Perez et al.

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Production 2011

(MWp)

Thin film 3,204

Ribbon-Si 120

Multi-Si 10,336

Mono-Si 9,114

PV Production Development by Technology

Source: Navigant Consulting

Design: PSE AG 2012

© Fraunhofer ISE

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0,01 0,1 1 10 1001

10

2010

2000

1990

Cumulated Production [GWp]

Mo

du

le P

rice

[in

flat

ion

ad

just

ed €

2011

/ W

p]

1980

Price Learning Curve (all c-Si PV Technologies)

Source: Navigant Consulting;

EuPD Module price (since 2006)

Design: PSE AG 2012

Learning Rate:

With each doubling of cumulative

production, price went down by 20%!

Cost of PV electricity

2013:

ca. 13 €ct/kWh

in Germany

< 6-8 $ct/kWh

in sun-rich countries

2013: Ready-installed rooftop system in Germany: down to € 1.20 /Watt!

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Average Price for Rooftop PV Installations in Germany

(10kWp - 100kWp)

Data: BSW-Solar. Graph: PSE AG 2013

Elecricity Cost

of 0.10-0.15 €/kWh!

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Key Elements to Drive Down Cost for PV Manufacturing

Source: M+W group, Dr. Klaus Eberhardt, European PV Technology Platform, September 2011

Vertical Integration

1.0

0.5

0.0

Cost/

Watt (a.u.)

Technology Improvement

Higher Area Utilization

Diluted Overhead Costs

Optimized Facilities

High Throughput Process Tools

Key Elements to drive costs down

Recycling and Reuse of Chemicals

Process Equipment &

Technology

Scaling

Benchmarking

Value Engineering

Industrial Engineering Integrated

PV Fab

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Crystalline Silicon Technology Portfolio

Materi

al

quality

Module

efficiency

Industry

Standard

IBC-BJ

PERC

MWT-

PERC

20%

19%

18%

17%

16%

15% 14%

Adapted from Preu et al., EU-PVSEC 2009

21%

Devic

e

quality

Material quality

Diffusion length

Base conductivity

Device quality

Passivation of surfaces

Low series resistance

Light confinement

Cell Structures

PERC: Passivated Emitter and

Rear Cell

MWT: Metal Wrap Through

IBC-BJ: Interdigitated Back

Contact – Back Junction

HJT: Hetero Junction Technology

BC-

HJT

© Fraunhofer ISE

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High-efficiency n-type PERL Cells

Lab Results

Excellent performance at cell level

Only very thin ALD layer

necessary

Best cell 705 41.1 82.5 23.9*

Voc

[mV]

Jsc

[mA/cm2]

FF

[%]

η

[%]

Benick et al., APL 92 (2008)

Glunz et al., IEEE-PVSC (2010)

*Confirmed at Fraunhofer ISE CalLab

ap = aperture area

(= bus bar included in illuminated area)

© Fraunhofer ISE

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The efficiency limit for a single-material PV Cell

Si

For Silicon:

(AM1.5g, 1000 W/m², 25°C)

hmax, theo = 28 %

Lab cell = 24 %

500 1000 1500 2000 25000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Thermalization losses

Transmission losses

Energy that can beused by a Si solar cell

Sp

ectr

al irra

dia

nce [

W/m

2

µm

]

AM1.5 spectrum Si (1.12 eV)

Wavelength [nm]

© Fraunhofer ISE

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The benefit of multi-junction solar cells

For triple-junction

concentrator cells:

hmax, theo = 61 %

(1000xAM1.5d, 1000 W/m²)

Lab. cell = 40.8 %

230xAM1.5d, 1000 W/m²)

GaInP GaInAs

Ge

500 1000 1500 2000 25000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Sp

ectr

al irra

dia

nce [

W/m

2

µm

]

AM1.5 spectrum GaInP (1.70 eV) GaInAs (1.18 eV) Ge (0.67 eV)

Wavelength [nm]

© Fraunhofer ISE

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World Record 44.7 % Efficiency Solar Cell

Wafer-Bonded, 4-Junction Technology Fh-ISE with SOITEC, Cea-Leti, HZB

75

80

85

90

hmax

= 44.7 % @ C=297

FF

[%

]

35

40

45

Eff

. [%

]

1 10 100 10003.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

lot12-01-x17y04

VO

C [

V]

Concentration [x, AM1.5d, ASTM G173-03, 1000 W/m²]

© Fraunhofer ISE

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III/V Multijunction cells are used in Concentrated PV: CPV

2012: SOITEC SOLAR

builds a 300 MW CPV

installation, using a new

150 MWp/yr factory near

San Diego, CA!

© Fraunhofer ISE

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World market outlook: experts are optimistic Example Bank Sarasin, Nov 2010

Newly installed (right)

Annual growth rate (left)

Gro

wth

ra

te

Market forecast: 30 GWp in 2014, 110 GWp in 2020

Annual growth rate: in the range of 20% and 30%

Source: Sarasin, Solar Strudy, Nov 2010

2013:

35-37 GWp,

far above

forecast!

© Fraunhofer ISE

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IEA Outlook on PV production world-wide

Rapidly declining cost of PV

generated electricity open

up new market opportunities

Current 30GWp/a market will

increase to a 100+ GWp/a

market in 2020; for 2050

more than 3000 GWp of

globally installed PV

capacity is expected

Strong increase

necessitates construction of

GW-scale, highly automatic

PV production plants

IMEC

2013

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Daily Electricity Consumption – Juli Fab 5

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100

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:30

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23

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:00

in k

W

Uhrzeit

Dienstag, den 16.07.2013

KACO new energy

Graph Courtesy Ralf Hofmann, KACO

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Daily Electricity Consumption – August Fab 5

with 2 MW PV System

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

14000

:00

:00

00

:30

:00

01

:00

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In k

W

Uhrzeiten

Dienstag, den 20.08.2013

KACO new energy

Graph Courtesy Ralf Hofmann, KACO

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Production Capacity

PV Sales

Estimated

Produktionskapazitäten und Nachfrage nähern sich an

- 15 -

China will den Aufbau von Produktionskapazitäten bremsen

Nachfrage >50 GW könnte schon 2015 zu Engpässen führen

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016*

[GW]

Produktionskapazitäten

Nachfrage

*vorläufig/geschätzt

?

Quellen: EPIA, JRC, Mercom, iSuppli, BNEF, IEA, Photon, SW&W, Bloomberg, Solarbuzz und eigene Schätzungen Slide courtesy Tobias Kelm, ZSW; data from EPIA, Mercom, iSupply, BNEF, IEA, Photon, SW&W, Bloomberg, Solarbuzz, and own estimates

The Gap between global PV Production Capacity and

Sales is Closing!

Demand > 50 GW 2015 might result in shortage of PV modules!

Non-competitive PV fabrication lines are closing worldwide

© Fraunhofer ISE

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© Fraunhofer ISE

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Solar Thermal System Typology

Driving

temperature

Collector type System type

Low

(60-90°C)

Open cycle: direct air treatment

Closed cycle: high temperature cooling

system (e.g. chilled ceiling)

Medium

(80-110°C)

Closed cycle: chilled water for cooling

and dehumidification

Closed cycle: refrigeration, air-

conditioning with ice storage

High

(130-200°C)

Closed cycle: double-effect system

with high overall efficiency

Closed cycle: system with high

temperature lift (e.g. ice production

with air-cooled cooling tower)

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Solar Thermal Power Plants

Receiver

Concentrating Mirror

Heat Transport

Tracking Systems

© Fraunhofer ISE

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Concentrated Solar (Thermal) Power CSP Technologies

C ~ 70-90

commercial

ha ~ 12%-14%

LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh

C ~ 60-120

demo

ha ~10%-12%

LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh

C ~ 300-4000

demo

ha ~ 14%-18%

LEC2020 ~ ?

C ~ 500-1000

comm. demo

ha ~ 10%-15%

LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh

Parabolic Mirrors Fresnel Mirrors Stirling Dish Solar Tower

(Fresnel)

© Fraunhofer ISE

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© Fraunhofer ISE

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© Solarmillenium

Solar collector field

Tubing and heat

exchanger

Storage – optional

Power plant

Cooling - wet- or dry

cooling

Solar thermal power plants may include storage!

Components:

© Fraunhofer ISE

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ISE Model of a future German Energy System

Combining Electricity, Gas and Heat *

Near-100% 24/7/365 reliable renewable energy from

wind, sun, hydro & biomass at minimum total cost!

Source: H. Henning, A. Palzer, Fraunhofer ISE 2012 *Without Transport, Import-Export!

PV: 220 GW, 214 TWh

Wind: 253 GW, 596 TWh

Hydro 5 GW, 21 TWh

Biomass: 50 TWh

Energy Efficiency of Buildings: - 50%

Maximum Demand: 132 GW

Maximum Generation: 321 GW – Storage!

Total Cost: same as 2012!

heat load,

total

electrical heat

pump

solar heat

micro-CHP

solar heat

gas

heat pump

solar heat

biomass

pow er-

to-gas

battery

storage

methane

storage

combined

cycle gas

turbine

pumped

storage pow er

plant

CHP

central

photovoltaic

w ind

onshore

w ind

offshore

hydro

pow er

import

electricityexcess heat

heat

stor-

age

heat load

gas-HP + solar

heat load

micro CHP +

solar

heat

stor-

age

fossilsolar heat

central

heat load

el. HP + solar

heat

stor-

age

heat

stoarge,

central

heat load CHP

+ solar,

central

excess

electricity

export

electricity

electrical

load

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Example Germany: The Cost of the Energy Transition

Slide courtesy F. Staiss 2013, based on data from BMU

© Fraunhofer ISE

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BMWi, IIIC2

DEU 1950

DEU 1990 DEU

2010

Anteil Erneuerbare am Bruttostromverbrauch (Prozent)

Energieeffizienz BIP/PEV (Mio. ! 2010 / PJ)

Deutschland auf dem Weg in ein neues Energiezeitalter

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Zeitalter der Erneuerbaren

Zeitalter der Energieeffizienz

Energiekonzept 2050

DEU 1973

Graph: K. Kübler, BMWi, FVEE 2011

The Road Towards the Energy Transformation:

Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energies

We should describe progress on this road by an index: ETI

© Fraunhofer ISE

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0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Effic

ien

cy =

GD

P / P

ED

[U

S$

2011/k

Wh

]

Share of Renewable Energy in PED [%]

Example Germany

Values from 2011

Eff

= 0

,99

US

$/k

Wh

RE = 10%

ETI = Normalized length of the

vector in the Eff / RE diagram

Eff = Efficiency = GDP/PED

[US-$2011/kWh]

Effn = Eff / 2 $/kWh

GDP = Gross Domestic Product [$2011 ]

PED = Primary Energy Demand [kWh]

RE = Share of Renewable Energy

[0..…1] (1 means 100%)

ETI = 100 * (Effn + RE)/2

[0…….100…..]

ETI: = average of Effn and RE!

Energy Transformation Index ETI - Definition

© Fraunhofer ISE

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0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Effic

ien

cy =

GD

P / P

ED

[U

S$

2013/k

Wh

]

Share of Renewable Energy on Primary Energy Demand [%]

CAN 24

SWE 40

EU-27 25

MEX 18

USA 18

GER 30

JAP 30

Data: World Bank / IEA, German Ministry for Economy

CHN 11

BRA 39

2010

ITA 34

ETI max 100

IND 19

ARE United Arab Emirates

AUT Austria

BRA Brazil

CAN Canada

CHE Switzerland

CHN China

DNK Denmark

EU-27 European Union

GER Germany

IDN Indonesia

IND India

ITA Italy

IRL Ireland

ISL Iceland

JAP Japan

MEX Mexico

SAU Saudi Arabia

SWE Sweden

USA United States

ISL 47

ARE 11

SAU 8

CHE 65

IRL 39

DNK 51

AUT 40

IDN 25

Energy Transformation Index ETI for different countries

© Fraunhofer ISE

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Development of ETI for selected countries 1990-2011

2010

0 0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Effic

iency =

GD

P / P

ED

[U

SD

2013/k

Wh]

Share of Renewable Energy on PED [%]

Germany

USA

China

EU-27

Sweden

Canada

Mexico

South Korea

Japan

Italy

Great Britain

France

Australia

South Africa

India

Spain

Diagonale

Diagonale

Diagonale

Diagonale

Optimaler Pfad

ESP 31 AUS

27

CAN 24

SWE 40

EU-27 25

MEX 18

USA 18

GER 30

JAP 30

Data: World Bank / German Ministry for Economy

ITA 34

GB 30

KOR 10

FRA 27

SA 11 CHN

11 IND 19

© Fraunhofer ISE

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6

7

8

10

11

11

11

14

15

15

16

16

16

16

18

18

19

20

21

22

24

24

25

25

25

26

27

27

27

28

29

30

30

30

31

32

33

34

35

39

39

40

40

46

47

51

65

Iran +50%

Russia +133%

Saudi Arabia +100%

South Korea +43%

China -15%

South Africa* +38%

UAE +120%

Czech Republic +367%

Poland +650%

Venezuela +114%

Argentina +60%

Hungary +300%

Slovakia +700%

Thailand -27%

Mexico +64%

USA +100%

India -21%

Turkey +33%

Belgium +110%

Slovenia +100%

Canada +71%

Pakistan -8%

EU-27* +108%

Indonesia -4%

Netherlands +150%

Israel +136%

Australia +145%

France +80%

Greece +125%

Chile +47%

Finland +45%

Germany +173%

Great Britain +173%

Japan +76%

Spain +94%

Luxembourg +300%

Portugal +65%

Italy +79%

Colombia +75%

Brazil* +30%

Ireland +255%

Austria +67%

Sweden +74%

Nigeria +12%

Iceland +18%

Denmark +155%

Switzerland +124%

ETI 2011(*2010)

ETI 1990

6

7

8

10

11

11

11

14

15

15

16

16

16

16

18

18

19

20

21

22

24

24

25

25

25

26

27

27

27

28

29

30

30

30

31

32

33

34

35

39

39

40

40

46

47

51

65

Iran +50%

Russia +133%

Saudi Arabia +100%

South Korea +43%

China -15%

South Africa* +38%

UAE +120%

Czech Republic…

Poland +650%

Venezuela +114%

Argentina +60%

Hungary +300%

Slovakia +700%

Thailand -27%

Mexico +64%

USA +100%

India -21%

Turkey +33%

Belgium +110%

Slovenia +100%

Canada +71%

Pakistan -8%

EU-27* +108%

Indonesia -4%

Netherlands +150%

Israel +136%

Australia +145%

France +80%

Greece +125%

Chile +47%

Finland +45%

Germany +173%

Great Britain +173%

Japan +76%

Spain +94%

Luxembourg +300%

Portugal +65%

Italy +79%

Colombia +75%

Brazil* +30%

Ireland +255%

Austria +67%

Sweden +74%

Nigeria +12%

Iceland +18%

Denmark +155%

Switzerland +124%

ETI 2011(*2010)

ETI 1990

ETI-Ranking for 47 countries and growth between 1990 and 2011 (percentage)

© Fraunhofer ISE 2013

© Fraunhofer ISE

36

The Role of Solar Energy in our Future Energy System

A near-100% renewable energy system is possible, at similar cost as today’s

energy supply – no more need for imported fuels, almost all is spent domestically

PV will be one of two main pillars – with drastically reduced prices of € 1.00-1.20

/Watt installed LCOE of PV electricity is below 10 ct/kWh, will go down further

Small, distributed battery systems combined with large storage systems and grid

interconnection will guarantee secure power supply

The use of solar thermal energy harvestingen makes especially sense in sun-rich

countries; low-T ST for warm water, CS(T)P with storage for electricity

CSP without storage is not longer cost-competitive compared with PV

In regions with high DNI, CPV is most attractive as it offers the maximum number

of hours per day

Progress in the energy transformation process will be easily monitored by our new

ISE / ISES ETI

© Fraunhofer ISE

37

Thank you for your Attention!

eicke.weber@ise.fraunhofer.de www.ise.fraunhofer.de

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

Eicke R. Weber with Ralf Preu, Harry Wirth, Klaus Kiefer…

© Fraunhofer ISE

38

'Gärtner' <h.gaertner@gp-joule.de>,

'Gärtner' <h.gaertner@gp-joule.de>,