The role of future visions and foresight

Can policymakers change the paradigm towards a sustainable future?

Eeva Hellström 4.6.2018

eeva.hellstrom@sitra.fi

“The megatrends look like a runaway train posing daunting

challenges and collapsologists are talking of a dying world”

S TA R T I N G P O I N T

C O R E C H A L L E N G E S L I E I N O U R G O V E R N A N C E S Y S T E M S

Phenomenon-based governance

Long-term perspective with strategic sensitivity

Building the future together

AT T I T U D E S T O W A R D S F U T U R E S C R E AT E T H E P L AY I N G F I E L D

WHY DO WE NEED VISIONS?

Opportunityfor progressive

visions

Responding to megatrends

requiresradical

changes

…onlyincremental

change

Megatrends are a threat … an opportunity

Movements that build on

fear

Most of European

establishment during the past

20 years?

V I S I O N S A R E C H O I C E S O N H O W T O R E S P O N D T O M E G AT R E N D S

“What one needs is not a common future but the future as a commons”

Shiv Visvanathan

INJECTION APPROACH

P O L I C Y- M A K I N G :

… INFORMED by evidence

HOT POT APPROACH

P O L I C Y- M A K I N G :

… INFUSED by collective intelligence

For changing the POLICY-MAKERS’ paradigms on the future, we first need to change the paradigms of

POLICY-MAKING.

There, foresight can play a role. It can…

1. help decision-makers to navigate in the world of different attitudes towards the future.

2. help build positive and progressive visions.

3. help trigger societal dialogue on alternative futures, and look upon the future as a commons.

4. lead the way to adopting a hot pot approach in policy-making

Paradigms change not only because of facts, but through metaphors that help to grasp the idea.

Megatrends Vision Weak signals

What is that?

S I T R A ’ S T H R E E A P P R O A C H E S T O T H E F U T U R E

sitra.fi/megatrends | nextera.global

@sitrafund