the role of evaluation in transitions from evaluation to valuing progress

The role of evaluation in transitionsfrom evaluation to valuing progress

Dr. Derk Loorbach

10-02-2012

Dr. Derk Loorbach

10-02-2012

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

The evaluation challenge of transitions

• Sustainable development requires non-linear, unpredictable, unmanageable change

• Requires insight in transitional dynamics and ways to stimulate these

• Policy evaluation is perhaps useless, transitions require normative forward-looking evaluation


Transitions

fundamental change of structure, culture and fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in a societal (sub)systempractices in a societal (sub)system

– culture:culture: collective set of values, norms, collective set of values, norms, perspectives (shared perspectives (shared orientation), paradigms orientation), paradigms

– structure:structure: physical infrastructure, economic physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure, infrastructure, institutions, rules, regulations, collective institutions, rules, regulations, collective routinesroutines

– practices:practices: behaviour, operation, implementationbehaviour, operation, implementation

Shared discourse and language for multi-actor Shared discourse and language for multi-actor learning and innovation processeslearning and innovation processes


Transition levelsMacro-level: landscapeautonomous trends, paradigms, slow changes

Meso-level: regimeDominant structure, culture and practices

Micro-level: niches innovative ideas, projects, technologies, niche actorsBased on Geels and Kemp, 2001


Transition phases

Sustainable society?

health care

energywaste

waterconstruction

mobility finance

predevelopment

take-off

acceleration

stabilisation

Based on Rotmans et al, 2001


Source: Stockholm Resilience Center and DRIFT, 2010


Fundamental issues

• Something new (innovation) is something else than something improved

• Prediction is impossible, but insight is necessary

• Sustainability (breakthroughs) come from multiple domains

It is more about impact and process than outcome and output


Transition management

Monitoring, evaluating

and learning

Developing images

coalitions and

transition-agendas

Mobilizing actors and executing projects and

experiments

Problem structuring, establishment of the transition arena and

envisioning


Role of evaluation and monitoring

• Support learning about the transition

• Integrated part of the governance cycle (4-5yrs)

• So far mainly experimentally applied at program level

• Focus on patterns, dyanmics, pathways, upscaling and framing


Rotterdam Climate Initiativeparticipatory monitoring

• RCI program: 50% CO2 reduction in 2025– 80 million budget– Dozens of projects

• Reflection role Drift– Participatory TM based evaluation– Stepwise transitioning of the program– Discussing goals, strategy and actions


Goals transitionmonitoring

• Awareness (What are we doing?)

• Reflection (are we doing the right thing?)

• Reorientation (which vision and goals?)

• Strategy development


Framework


From goals to pathways

2010 2014 2020 2025

CO2 reduction goals

- 8 Mton 12 Mton 34 Mton

CO2 absolute 30 Mton 28 Mton 22 Mton 12 Mton

mob built Ind mob built Ind mob built Ind mob built Ind

Transitionindicators/Subgoals

0,35 839 kton

65,6 0,30 800 kton

60,0 0,22 600 kton

50,0

0,14 400 kton

32,5

Processindicator 1 0,02%

9,7%

0,2 (R)

10%

20% 0,15 30% 40% 0,12

50% 100%

0,1

Processindicator 2 0,02%

2% 0,3 (C)

10%

80% 0, 3 30% 100%

0,22

50% 100%

0,15

Processindicator 3 0 0,5 (E)

300 0,5 2000

0, 35

4200

0,25


Transition ‘evaluation’

• Using the transition perspective to identify societal dynamics and policy-society interaction

• Tool to stuimulate collective ‘framing’ and ‘discourse’

• Intsrument to ‘transitionize’ existing policy

• Instrument to ‘measure’ transition and impact of transition governance?


Key challenges/questions

• Multiple influences, interaction and interventions that cannot be quantified or correlated

• How to map patterns and impacts in a way that they provide a basis for governance

• What can transition monitoring learn from environmental evaluation

• Does transition evaluation imply a transition in evaluation?

the role of evaluation in transitions from evaluation to valuing progress

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