the role of energy in four countries’ economy: causality analysis prepared by: arjun dhakal ayse...
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The role of energy in four countries’ economy: Causality analysis
Prepared by:
Arjun Dhakal Ayse Ozge Kepenek Jiaqiao LinLydia Stergiopoulou
Feb. 2nd, 2007
Relationship between EnergyConsumption and GDP
• Economic growth is requiring less additional energy consumption, mainly as a result of structural changes in the economy. However, total energy consumption is still increasing. European Environmental Agency (April 2006)
• A policy to reduce energy consumption aimed at reducing emissions is likely to have greater impact on the GDP of the developed rather than the developing world. OECD
Uncertainty in the relationship between energy use to GDP
• Comparison among countries of the ratio of energy use to GDP is complicated by many factors.
- geographical differences (climate, size)
- differences in environmental impact among energy sources
- the strength of this relation varies among regions over time
Population and Income
China India UK USA
Population, total (millions) 1304.5 1094.6 60.2 296.5
Urban population (% of total) 40.4 28.7 89.7 80.8
GDP (current US$) (billions) 2228.9 785.5 2192.6 12455.1
Energy and Emission by Country
China India UK USA
GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2000 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent)
4.5 5.2 7.1 4.5
Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita) 1094 520 3893 7843
Combustible renewables and waste (% of total energy)
15.5 38.2 1.2 3
Energy imports, net (% of energy use) 2 18.1 -6.1 28.5
Electric power consumption (kWh per capita) 1379 435 6209 13078
Electricity production from coal sources (% of total)
79.4 68.3 35.4 51.4
CO2 emissions (kg per 2000 PPP $ of GDP) 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6
CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) 2.7 1.2 9.2 20.2
PM10, country level (micrograms/ cubic meter) 80 84 17 24
Question=• To run and test, until recently if there is the causal relationship as
mentioned in the references in selected countries
For developed, E GDP E GDP , so if it is reasonable for them to take responsibility of mitigating CO2
emissions, if so what’s the relation of relevant measures to GDP
For developing, E GDP
,so if they should reduce energy consumption to mitigate CO2 emission or through other measures, say, improving efficiency, increase alternative renewable energy, will these affect domestic income?
Comparison between two groups
• From references for developing countries, energy use seems to play an equally important role in most of them.
• Therefore, if the causal relationship is greater for them, then any restraint on energy consumption will exert more impacts on these countries compared to the more industrialised countries (Chontanawat, 2006; Sari & Soytas, 2007).
Reduction in energy consumption
Developed
Developing
The Case of China
• Unidirectional Granger causality found from electricity consumption to real GDP (Shiu & Lam, 2004)
• Unidirectional Granger causality, from coal, coke, electricity and total energy consumption to real GDP but no Granger causality between oil consumption and real GDP (Shanghai). (Wolde-Rufael, 2004)
The Case of India
• Cheng (1999) finds no Granger causality running from energy consumption to economic growth,
• While many papers find unidirectional Granger causality running from energy consumption to income. (Paul & Bhattacharya , 2004; Asafu-Adjaye ,2000; Masih and Masih , 1996)
Expanding energy consumption?!
Promoting energy efficiency
Decreasing energy intensity
Diversify energy sources that are renewable
• To conduct following analysis:
Different energy category use vs. GDP
Coal consumption
Electricity consumption/production
Oil consumption
Natural gas
Energy efficiency
Hydro-
Coal
Nuclear-
Renewable-
Model Summary
.942a .888 .883 722.09778Model1
R R SquareAdjustedR Square
Std. Error ofthe Estimate
Predictors: (Constant), COAL_CNa.
Preliminary findings
Model Summary
.984a .967 .966 1128.22142Model1
R R SquareAdjustedR Square
Std. Error ofthe Estimate
Predictors: (Constant), COAL_INa.
Causal relationship: GDP – Energy Consumption
• Variables: GDP: X(t) Energie Consumption: Y(t) using time series X= {Xt, Xt-1, Xt-2 …} Y= {Yt, Yt-1, Yt-2, …}
• Our Autoregressive Model: Xt = c + φ1Xt-1 + φ2 Xt-2 + … + φp X t-p + Et
Yt = c + θ1Yt-1 + θ2 Yt-2 + … + θp Yt-p + Et
φ1, …φp and θ1 , ... θp : the parameters of our model c : a constant Et : an error term
Methodology
Granger test
• Technique for determining whether one time series is useful in forecasting the other
• a series of tests on values of X and Y will determine if :• X values provide statistically significant information on
future values of Y If
yes then:• Time series X is said to Granger-cause Y• Meaning that GDP past trends influence future Energy
Consumption trends
Expectations
• To review the former findings and combine our causal analysis results to find if cut down the primary energy consumption will affect economic growth.
• To find if expand renewable energy proportion will affect economic growth
• To provide facts for policy making process
• Asafu-Adjaye, J. (2000) The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: Time series evidence from Asian developing countries. Energy Economics, 22(6), 615-25.
• Chontanawat, J., Leste,r C. Hunt, Richard, Pierse (2006). Causality between Energy Consumption and GDP: Evidence from 30 OECD and 78 Non-OECD Countries. In SEEDS(Surrey Energy Economics Discussion paper Series).
• Hu, J.-L. & Wang, S.-C. (2006) Total-factor energy efficiency of regions in China. Energy Policy, 34(17), 3206-06.
• Masih Abdul, M.M. & Masih, R. (1996) Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: Results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques. Energy Economics, 18(3), 165-83.
• Masih Abul, M.M. & Masih, R. (1998) A multivariate cointegrated modelling approach in testing temporal causality between energy consumption, real income and prices with an application to two Asian LDCs. Applied Economics, 30(10), 1287-98.
• Sari, R. & Soytas, U. (2007) The growth of income and energy consumption in six developing countries. Energy Policy, 35(2), 889-98.
• Shiu, A. & Lam, P.-L. (2004) Electricity consumption and economic growth in China. Energy Policy, 32(1), 47-54.
• Soytas, U. & Sari, R. (2006) Energy consumption and income in G-7 countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 28(7), 739-39.
• Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2004) Disaggregated industrial energy consumption and GDP: the case of Shanghai, 1952-1999. Energy Economics, 26(1), 69-75.
• ZhiDong, L. (2003) An econometric study on China's economy, energy and environment to the year 2030. Energy Policy, 31(11), 1137-50.
References