the role of computing in climate science dr. robert bishop cern 29 january 2010
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The Role of Computing in Climate Science
Dr. Robert Bishop
CERN 29 January 2010
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Climate is the thin edge of the wedge!
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The Bigger Picture
CLIMATE
ENVIRONMENT
BIOSPHERE
EARTH
SOLAR SYSTEM
CIVILISATION
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We have been treating the sciences as separate stovepipes and silos
for over 200 years!
• In Research• In Publishing • In University Faculties • In Government Departments
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21C: Integration vs Dis-Integration
The Whole Earth
• Seamless• Multi-science • Multi-scale (spatial & temporal)
The New Grand Challenge
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Before the Age of ComputingIn 1922, Lewis Fry Richardson, a mathematician and meteorologist, proposed an immersive giant globe to
numerically forecast weather. This “factory” would employ 64,000 human computers to sit in tiers around
the interior circumference of a giant globe.
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Yokohama Earth Simulator Opened March 2002, NEC SX-6
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WW Dedicated Climate Machines(TAKEN FROM THE NOVEMBER 2009 TOP500 SUPERCOMPUTER SITES)
Worldwide
Ranking
Organisation
Country
Peak
Teraflops Sustained
Teraflops Supplier
# 31 JAMSTEC JAPAN 131.07 122.40
NEC
SX-9
# 33 ECMWF UK 156.42 115.90
IBM
Power 575
# 34 ECMWF UK 156.42 115.90
IBM
Power 575
# 35 DKRZ GY 151.60 115.90
IBM
Power 575
# 54 NAVO USA 117.13 90.84
CRAY
XT5
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Proposed ICES Computing Resources
• Dedicated High Performance Computing - 20 year transition: petaflop(1015)-exaflop(1018)-zettaflop(1021flops)
• High-resolution 3D interactive immersion
- auditorium level viewing with remote viewing & remote steering
• Low cost (nuclear) power from France• Ultra-high-speed networking from ITU• Green Computing, Cloud Computing
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HPC Computing Choices
• Homogeneous vs heterogeneous architectures• Multi-core, CPU-GPU, FPGA, ASICs or full custom• Cluster vs SMP, distributed vs shared memory• Power management, flops/megawatt• Software tools, compilers and middleware • ICES Speed-up requirement ~ 1000 x real-time
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ICES Modeling Challenges
• Algorithm development• Coupling, feedbacks and linkages• Representation of physical processes • Uncertainty estimates & management • Massive data ingest, management & re-analysis• Data availability, quality control & harmonization• Ensembles, statistical & stochastical methods• Initial & boundary condition determination • Output validation & verification• Multi-Decadal focus
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ICES Fundamentals
• 200 professionals including many seconded experts• Climate/Weather/Environ/Geo/Bio/Social Sciences• Analytics, decision making, discovery, innovation• Research, teaching, training, capacity building• Advanced modeling and simulation• Dedicated Supercomputing• Visually Intensive
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ICES and Disaster Risk Reduction
SOCIALSYSTEMS
SOLARSYSTEM
EARTHSYSTEM
BIOSPHERE
ENVIRONMENT
CLIMATE &WEATHER
InundationNatural Hazards
Precursor SignalsCommunity- Resilience
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ICES Organisation Structure
• Geneva-based • Not-for-profit Foundation• Public-Private Partnership• Multi-institute actor’s network
- WMO/WCRP/GEO, National Climate Services, Research Centers
• Governance from scientists & Int’l Orgs.
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Why Geneva?
• Science literate, educational infrastructure• International city, neutral country, trusted• Proximity to policy bodies:
WMO, UNEP, WHO, WTO, WEF, UNCTAD,
WBCSD, ITU, ICRC, UNHCR, IUCN, WWF
Partnerships with EPFL, Uni GE, CERN
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Learn from CERN
• New tools• New platforms • New knowledge• New organization• Global networking• ‘CLOUD’ experiment
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ICES Funding
• PHASE 1 (2010~2015) $350M from sources: 1/2 public, 1/2 private
• PHASE 2 (2016~2020) $450M from sources: 1/3 public, 1/3 private, 1/3 products and services, such as:
- test bed for large scale construction projects - industry specific services - disaster risk reduction - ‘what if’ scenarios
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ICES Foundation Members
BOARD MEMBERS: Bob BishopPresident André KaplunSecretary Julien PittonTreasurer
BANKERS: UBS
AUDITORS: PricewaterhouseCoopers
EXPERT COMMITTEE: in formation
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Helping guide the successful transformation of human society in an era of rapid climate change and frequent natural disasters.