the road not taken jim yoe, jcsda chief administrative officer jcsda summer colloquium santa fe, nm...
TRANSCRIPT
The Road Not Taken
Jim Yoe, JCSDA Chief Administrative Officer
JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 1
Outline Motivation (Some) current topics NOT addressed here (Some) comments & extensions about
topics that HAVE been addressed (Some) future directions and
considerations Summary
JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 2
Motivation Question: What Road? Answer: Several:
Some Current applications not covered in Colloquium
Some Extensions and connections of topics covered
Some Future Considerations Environments, Applications, Implications
This was to be the closing talk – “roll up” So this might seem out of place
JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 3
Topics Not Addressed Land Data Assimilation
See R. Reichle, http://www.jcsda.noaa.gov/meetings_2009SummerColloq.php
GPS Radio Occultation Refer to talks by J. Derber, L.-P. Riishojgaard, See L. Cucurull http://
www.jcsda.noaa.gov/meetings_2009SummerColloq.php
(Note also 2009 GMAO, UKMO DA Summary Talks)
ummer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 4
Comments and Extensions
JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 5
Data Impact Studies• Multiple Methods
• Forecast Sensitivity Diagnostics (FSD; e.g., Adjoints)• Observation System Experiments• Observation System Simulation Experiments
• Multiple Applications• Evaluate DA systems/methods• Evaluate OS components
• Influence decisions regarding future OS components
JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 6
500 hPa Anomaly Correlations 15 Aug – 30 Sep 2010 (Riishojgaard and Jung, 2012)
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No Satellite / No Conventional Data
Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere
5th WMO Observing Systems Impact Workshop
500 hPa Day 3 North America Time Series (LPR/JJ)
JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 8
Data Impact Studies• Recommendation (Word of Caution):• Avoid Temptation (resist pressure) to map every
inch of trade space• Recall JCDSA Mission Statement• Analogy to misuse of statistics
• “Statistics are like a street lamp; the wise man uses it for illumination, and the drunk man for support”
JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 9
Modeling and DA Constraints
JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 10
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Air Quality
WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF
WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model
Regional NAMWRF NMM
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Hurricane GFDLHWRF
GlobalForecastSystem
DispersionARL/HYSPLIT
Forecast
Severe Weather
Rapid Refreshfor Aviation
Climate ForecastSystem
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
NOAA’s Model Production Suite
GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice
NOAH Land Surface Model
Coupled
Global DataAssimilation
OceansHYCOM
WaveWatch III
NAM/CMAQ
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Regi
onal
DA
Satellites + Radar99.9%
~2B Obs/Day
NOS – OFSGreat Lakes
Northern Gulf of Mexico
Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware
SpaceWeather
ENLIL
Regi
onal
DA
2011
Computing Capability
“reliable, timely and accurate”
Web access to models as they run on the CCS
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JULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJAN
Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Current computers IBM Power6 73.1 trillion
calculations/sec 2 billion observations/day 27.8 million model
fields/day Primary: Gaithersburg, MD Backup: Fairmont, WV Guaranteed switchover in
15 minutes Next generation
computer: by Oct 2013 IBM iDataPlex Intel/Linux 143 trillion calc/sec Primary: Reston, VA Backup: Orlando, FL
Operational NWP Models
JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 13
The Global Observing System
• Evolving in which direction? Consider:• Number of US Operational SC and sensors
• Decreasing• Number of Total SC and sensors
• Increasing• Number of observations available
• Increasing• Quality of observations available• Timeliness (latency)
JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 14
“It’s not having what you want; it’s wanting what you’ve got”
A word on balance Environmental Modeling as a three-legged stool: Observations
Becoming a commodity? Computational (and communications) capacity Intellectual
Modeling Data Assimilation & QC
JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 15
Summary (Satellite) Data Assimilation will grow in
importance More Applications Increasingly coupled applications More varied sensors Part of the most cost-effective component to
invest in for improved modeling.
JCSDA Summer Colloquium Santa Fe, NM 16
Back up slides
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