the recession’s impact on the economy, employment and older workers

The Recession’s Impact on the The Recession’s Impact on the Economy, Employment and Economy, Employment and

Older WorkersOlder Workers

April 20, 2010April 20, 2010

Employment Security Commission Employment Security Commission of North Carolinaof North Carolina

Lynn R. Holmes, ChairmanLynn R. Holmes, Chairman

2

ESC ServicesESC Services Employment and Workforce Related

Services to North Carolina’s Citizens and Employers Labor Market Information Unemployment Insurance Employment Services

Job Referral and Placement Assistance Re-employment Services Career Counseling Resume Preparation Assistance Assessment and Testing Referral to Training Services Referral to Supportive Services Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA and ATAA)

3

ESC ServicesESC Services Employers Dislocated Workers Veterans Agricultural Workers Older Workers Disabled Workers Youth Ex-Offenders

5

Impact of the Economic Impact of the Economic Conditions on Employment Conditions on Employment

Security CommissionSecurity Commission As the state experienced economic recession,

citizens turned to the Employment Security Commission for assistance. Increased numbers of customers to ESC Local

Offices Increased Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Benefits Regular Claims peaked at 158,659 in Jan 2009

Pressures on the Unemployment Insurance System Increased number of TAA Petitions

Between Dec 2007 and April 2010, 391 Petitions were certified which covered an estimated 32,044 workers

6

Employment Services Employment Services Registered ApplicantsRegistered Applicants

803,004843,477

995,235940,446

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

J uly 2006-J une 2007 J uly 2007-J une 2008 J uly 2008-J une 2009 J uly 2009-March 2010

7

North North CarolinaCarolinaCalendar Calendar Year 2009Year 2009

Totally Totally Separated and Separated and

Attached Attached Initial Initial

ClaimantsClaimants Total Initial Claimants = 670,885 Total Initial Claimants = 670,885

Age Group ClaimantsPercent of

Total

16-19 11,890 1.8%

20-24 70,460 10.5%

25-34 159,825 23.8%

35-44 167,394 25.0%

45-54 156,876 23.4%

55-64 87,189 13.0%

65 and Over 17,077 2.5%

8

Unemployment Insurance Unemployment Insurance Compensation ProgramsCompensation Programs

Unemployment Insurance – 26 weeks Extended Benefits – 20 weeks Extended Unemployment

Compensation Tier I (EUC Tier I) – 20 weeks

Extended Unemployment Compensation Tier II (EUC Tier II) – 13 weeks

Federal Additional Compensation

9

Newest ExtensionNewest Extension Added 1 additional week to EUC Tier II Extended Unemployment

Compensation Tier III (EUC Tier III) – 13 weeks

Extended Unemployment Compensation Tier IV (EUC Tier IV) – 6 weeks

Individuals may be eligible for up to 99 weeks of UI benefits

13

National SituationNational Situation Between December 2007 and March

2010 Decrease of 8.2 million (5.9%) Nonfarm

Jobs 4.1 million Goods Producing

2.1 million - Manufacturing 1.9 million – Construction

4.1 million Service Providing 2.0 million – Trade, Transportation & Utilities

1,134,100 - Retail Trade 1.5 million - Professional & Business Services

714,900 - Employment Services 0.6 million – Financial Activities

March 2010 data are preliminary and December 2007 data are revised.

14

U.S. Nonfarm Employment January 2007-March 2010

(Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands)

120,000

122,500

125,000

127,500

130,000

132,500

135,000

137,500

140,000

Jan-07

Feb-07

Mar-07

Apr-07

May

-07

Jun-07

Jul-07

Aug

-07

Sep-07

Oct-07

Nov

-07

Dec-07

Jan-08

Feb-08

Mar-08

Apr-08

May

-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug

-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov

-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May

-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug

-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov

-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

National EmploymentNational Employment

National recession beganDecember 2007

137,951

129,750

March 2010 data are preliminary, all other data are revised.

15

National EmploymentNational Employment((Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands)Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands)

128,000

128,500

129,000

129,500

130,000

130,500

131,000

131,500

132,000

132,500

Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10

129,750

132,070

March 2010 data are preliminary, while all other data are revised.

16

US Labor ForceUS Labor Force

United States Labor ForceDecember 2007–March 2010

(Seasonally Adjusted)

December2007R

March2010P

NetChange

PercentChange

Labor Force 153,869,000 153,910,000 41,000 0.0%

Employed 146,173,000 138,905,000 -7,268,000 -5.0%

Unemployed 7,696,000 15,005,000 7,309,000 95.0%

Unemployment Rate 5.0 9.7 4.7 XXX

P: Preliminary; R: Revised

17

National SituationNational Situation

As of March 2010 7.3 million more individuals

unemployed in the United States than in December 2007

Lost 8.2 million jobs Need to add 136,669 net jobs a month for

the next 60 months to reach December 2007 employment levels

18

North Carolina SituationNorth Carolina Situation Between December 2007 and March

2010 Decrease of 277,700 (6.7%) Total Nonfarm

jobs 179,500 Goods Producing

101,500 - Manufacturing 77,300 - Construction

98,200 Service Providing 66,900 - Trade, Transportation & Utilities 42,900 - Professional & Business Services 13,500 - Financial Activities 8,500 – Leisure & Hospitality

19

Nonfarm Employment January 2007-March 2010


3,500

3,600

3,700

3,800

3,900

4,000

4,100

4,200

4,300

Jan-07

Feb

-07

Mar

-07

Apr

-07

May

-07

Jun-07

Jul-07

Aug

-07

Sep-07

Oct-07

Nov

-07

Dec-07

Jan-08

Feb

-08

Mar

-08

Apr

-08

May

-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug

-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov

-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb

-09

Mar

-09

Apr

-09

May

-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug

-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov

-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb

-10

Mar

-10

North Carolina Employment

National recession beganDecember 2007

3,891,800

4,169,500

March 2010 data are preliminary, other 2010 data are revised, while all other data are benchmarked.

22

North Carolina Industry EmploymentDecember 2007–March 2010


IndustryDecember

2007B

March 2010P

Net Change

Percent Change

Total Nonfarm 4,169.5 3,891.8 -277.7 -6.7%

Goods Producing 791.0 611.5 -179.5 -22.7%

Service Providing 3,378.5 3,280.3 -98.2 -2.9%

Mining & Logging 6.9 6.2 -0.7 -10.1%

Construction 251.7 174.4 -77.3 -30.7%

Manufacturing 532.4 430.9 -101.5 -19.1%

Durable Goods 286.4 220.4 -66.0 -23.0%

Nondurable Goods 246.0 210.5 -35.5 -14.4%

B: Benchmarked; P: Preliminary

23

IndustryDecember

2007B

March 2010P

Net Change

Percent Change

Trade, Transportation & Utilities 780.1 713.2 -66.9 -8.6%

Wholesale Trade 182.6 164.3 -18.3 -10.0%

Retail Trade 469.4 435.5 -33.9 -7.2%

Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 128.1 113.4 -14.7 -11.5%

Information 72.2 69.1 -3.1 -4.3%

Financial Activities 212.2 198.7 -13.5 -6.4%

Finance & Insurance 157.8 148.1 -9.7 -6.1%

Real Estate & Rental Leasing 54.4 50.6 -3.8 -7.0%

Professional & Business Services 506.6 463.7 -42.9 -8.5%

Professional, Scientific & Technical 187.6 170.4 -17.2 -9.2%

Management of Companies 75.1 72.8 -2.3 -3.1%

Administrative & Waste Management 243.9 220.5 -23.4 -9.6%

Education & Health Services 532.8 548.1 15.3 2.9%

Educational Services 77.1 83.1 6.0 7.8%

Health Care & Social Services 455.7 465.0 9.3 2.0%

Leisure and Hospitality Services 405.1 396.6 -8.5 -2.1%

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 58.6 55.2 -3.4 -5.8%

Accommodation & Food Services 346.5 341.4 -5.1 -1.5%

Other Services 175.5 162.2 -13.3 -7.6%

Government 694.0 728.7 34.7 5.0%

Federal 63.8 68.9 5.1 8.0%

State 196.9 201.8 4.9 2.5%

Local 433.3 458.0 24.7 5.7%


24

North Carolina Labor North Carolina Labor ForceForce

North Carolina Labor ForceDecember 2007–March 2010

(Seasonally Adjusted)

December2007B

March2010P

NetChange

PercentChange

Labor Force 4,551,900 4,564,367 12,467 -0.3%

Employed 4,328,398 4,056,681 -271,717 -6.3%

Unemployed 223,502 507,686 284,184 127.2%

Unemployment Rate 4.9 11.1 6.2 XXX


25

North Carolina SituationNorth Carolina Situation

As of March 2010 284,184 more individuals unemployed

in North Carolina than in December 2007

Lost 277,700 jobs Need to add 4,628 net jobs a month for

the next 60 months to reach December 2007 employment levels

27

United States/North Carolina United States/North Carolina Unemployment RatesUnemployment Rates

January 2009-March 2010January 2009-March 2010(Seasonally Adjusted)(Seasonally Adjusted)

10.3 10

.7

10.9

11.0

11.0

10.9

10.9

10.9

10.9

10.9

11.1

11.2

11.1

9.7

9.7

9.710

.0

10.0

10.1

9.8

9.7

9.4

9.5

9.4

8.9

8.6

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

Mar.2009

Apr.2009

May2009

Jun.2009

Jul.2009

Aug.2009

Sep.2009

Oct.2009

Nov.2009

Dec.2009

Jan.2010

Feb.2010

Mar.2010

NC and US March 2010 data are preliminary, other 2010 NC data and all other US data are revised, while 2009 NC data are benchmarked.

North Carolina United States

28

States With the Highest States With the Highest Unemployment Rates, March 2010Unemployment Rates, March 2010

(Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands)(Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands)

Labor Force Unemployed Unemployment Rate

Michigan 4,850.7 682.5 14.1

Nevada 1,375.0 183.9 13.4

California 18,245.8 2,307.5 12.6

Rhode Island 578.4 72.6 12.6

Florida 9,269.4 1,137.7 12.3

South Carolina 2,173.3 264.5 12.2

District of Columbia 337.2 39.0 11.6

Illinois 6,66.3 765.0 11.5

Mississippi 1,302.1 150.3 11.5

North Carolina 4564.4 507.7 11.1

Alabama 2,066.0 227.3 11.0

Ohio 5,947.6 655.4 11.0

Kentucky 2,082.4 223.7 10.7

United States 153,512.0 15,005.0 9.7

All Data are preliminary.

Demographics of Demographics of North Carolina’s North Carolina’s Older WorkersOlder Workers

31

North Carolina Population

(500,000)(400,000)(300,000)(200,000)(100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000

0 - 45 - 9

10 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 84

85+

2009

Male Female

Baby Boomers

(500,000)(400,000)(300,000)(200,000)(100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000

0 - 45 - 9

10 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 84

85+

2029

Male Female

Baby Boomers

Source: U.S.Census Bureau, Population Division, Interim State Population Projections, 2005

32

Characteristics of North Characteristics of North Carolina’s Older Labor ForceCarolina’s Older Labor Force

From 2000 to 2009, the Civilian Labor Force increased by 623,000 (15.7%) 257,000 (41%) occurred in the 55 to 64 age group 59,000 (9.4%) occurred in the Over 64 age group

The overall Labor Force Participation (LFP) Rate decreased 3.9 percentage points from 68.1% in 2000 to 64.2% in 2009 LFP for the 55 to 64 group increased 3.9

percentage points from 59.0% to 62.9% LFP for the 64 and Over group increased 1.5

percentage points from 13.9% to 15.4%

Source: Geographic Profiles, BLS 2009 data are preliminary

33

Characteristics of the Older Characteristics of the Older Labor ForceLabor ForceContinuedContinued

In 2009, there were 334,000 more workers unemployed than in 2000 40,000 more worker Age 55 and Over unemployed

than in 2000 The overall Unemployment Rate increased 6.8

percentage points from 3.6% in 2000 to 10.4% in 2009 Unemployment Rate for the 55 to 64 group

increased 4.0 percentage points from 1.6% to 5.6% Unemployment Rate for the 64 and Over group

increased 4.0 percentage points from 3.6% to 7.6%


34

Characteristics of the Older Characteristics of the Older Labor ForceLabor ForceContinuedContinued

In 2009, North Carolina had a 15.4 percent In 2009, North Carolina had a 15.4 percent civilian labor force participation rate for those civilian labor force participation rate for those older than 64older than 64 North Carolina has one of the lowest participation North Carolina has one of the lowest participation

rates, ranked 43rates, ranked 43rdrd out of 51 out of 51 Alaska had the highest at 69.3 percentAlaska had the highest at 69.3 percent West Virginia was the lowest at 12.4 percentWest Virginia was the lowest at 12.4 percent

The national average was 17.2 percentThe national average was 17.2 percent During the same period, the national During the same period, the national

unemployment rate for this group was 6.4 unemployment rate for this group was 6.4 percentpercent North Carolina’s average unemployment rate was 7.6 North Carolina’s average unemployment rate was 7.6

percent, the 12percent, the 12thth highest in the nation highest in the nation Florida had the highest at 11.0 percentFlorida had the highest at 11.0 percent South Dakota was estimated to have the lowest at 2.0 South Dakota was estimated to have the lowest at 2.0

percentpercent


37

Percent Civilian Non-institutional Percent Civilian Non-institutional Population Population

by Age Group by Age Group 2009 Annual Average 2009 Annual Average

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

16 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 46 to 54 55 to 64 Over 64


Preliminary

38

Labor Force Participation Rate by Age Labor Force Participation Rate by Age GroupGroup

2009 Annual Average2009 Annual Average

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


Per

cen

tag

e


Preliminary

39

Unemployment Rate by Age Group Unemployment Rate by Age Group 2009 Annual Average2009 Annual Average

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


Pe

rce

nta

ge


Preliminary

40

North Carolina Civilian Labor North Carolina Civilian Labor Force Force

2007-2009 Annual Averages2007-2009 Annual Averages(in thousands)(in thousands)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200


2007 2008 2009

Source: Geographic Profiles, BLS

41

North Carolina Labor Force North Carolina Labor Force Participation Rate Participation Rate

2007-2009 Annual Averages 2007-2009 Annual Averages

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


Pe

rce

nt

2007 2008 2009


42

North Carolina Unemployment Rate by North Carolina Unemployment Rate by Age Age

2007-2009 Annual Averages2007-2009 Annual Averages

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


Per

cen

t

2007 2008 2009


43

December 2007

March 2010

Net Change

Percent Change

Both Sexes All Races

Age 16+ 4,493.8 4,596.4 102.6 2.3%

Age 16-19 193.8 188.1 -5.8 -3.0%

Age 20+ 4,299.9 4,408.3 108.4 2.5%Male, All Races

Age 16-19 105.5 108.8 3.3 3.1%

Age 20-24 224.2 237.9 13.7 6.1%

Age 25-34 516.8 512.5 -4.3 -0.8%

Age 35-44 577.1 554.4 -22.7 -3.9%

Age 45-54 515.8 541.5 25.6 5.0%

Age 55-64 327.2 366.3 39.1 11.9%Over 64 94.4 107.5 13.1 13.9%

Female, All Races

Age 16-19 88.3 79.3 -9.0 -10.2%

Age 20-24 201.0 198.3 -2.7 -1.3%

Age 25-34 477.3 475.5 -1.7 -0.4%

Age 35-44 502.0 513.3 11.4 2.3%

Age 45-54 469.4 502.9 33.5 7.1%

Age 55-64 323.4 322.7 -0.7 -0.2%Over 64 71.3 75.4 4.1 5.7%

North Carolina Civilian Labor Force12-MONTH MOVING AVERAGES (in thousands)

44

December 2007

March 2010

Net Change


Age 16+ 65.4 64.2 -1.3Age 16-19 40.2 35.3 -4.8Age 20+ 67.3 66.5 -0.9

Male, All Races Age 16-19 40.6 39.0 -1.7Age 20-24 80.8 78.9 -1.9Age 25-34 91.9 91.3 -0.6Age 35-44 92.3 90.2 -2.1Age 45-54 87.1 88.4 1.3Age 55-64 66.5 69.8 3.3Over 64 20.4 20.8 0.4

Female, All Races Age 16-19 39.6 31.3 -8.3Age 20-24 67.6 70.4 2.8Age 25-34 76.6 75.6 -1.0Age 35-44 77.7 76.8 -0.9Age 45-54 73.9 74.5 0.6Age 55-64 57.3 57.7 0.4Over 64 11.7 11.0 -0.7

North Carolina Labor Force Participation Rate12-MONTH MOVING AVERAGES (in thousands)

45

December 2007

March 2010Net

Change Percent Change


Age 16+ 4,290.3 4,116.2 -174.0 -4.1%

Age 16-19 165.3 136.2 -29.2 -17.6%Age 20+ 4,125.0 3,980.1 -144.9 -3.5%

Male, All Races Age 16-19 89.6 75.8 -13.8 -15.4%Age 20-24 205.9 186.2 -19.7 -9.6%Age 25-34 494.2 445.9 -48.3 -9.8%Age 35-44 559.2 496.5 -62.7 -11.2%Age 45-54 500.5 492.1 -8.4 -1.7%Age 55-64 318.6 337.0 18.4 5.8%Over 64 93.4 96.3 2.9 3.1%

Female, All Races Age 16-19 75.8 60.4 -15.4 -20.3%Age 20-24 184.2 167.4 -16.8 -9.1%Age 25-34 452.7 434.4 -18.3 -4.0%Age 35-44 483.2 474.4 -8.8 -1.8%Age 45-54 453.9 469.9 16.0 3.5%

Age 55-64 310.5 311.2 0.8 0.2%Over 64 68.6 68.8 0.1 0.2%

North Carolina Employed 12-MONTH MOVING AVERAGES (in thousands)

46

December 2007

March 2010

Net Change Percent Change


Age 16+ 203.5 480.1 276.7 136.0%Age 16-19 28.5 52.0 23.4 82.2%Age 20+ 175.0 428.2 253.2 144.7%

Male, All Races

Age 16-19 15.9 33.0 17.1 107.2%Age 20-24 18.3 51.8 33.4 182.5%Age 25-34 22.6 66.6 44.0 194.5%Age 35-44 18.0 58.0 40.0 222.9%Age 45-54 15.3 49.4 34.1 222.8%Age 55-64 9.4 29.3 19.9 211.5%Over 64 5.9 11.2 5.3 90.5%

Female, All Races

Age 16-19 12.6 20.6 8.1 64.3%Age 20-24 16.8 31.0 14.2 84.4%Age 25-34 24.5 41.1 16.6 67.5%Age 35-44 18.8 38.9 20.1 107.3%Age 45-54 15.5 33.0 17.5 113.1%Age 55-64 12.9 12.5 -0.4 -3.1%Over 64 4.1 8.8 4.8 118.1%

North Carolina Unemployed12-MONTH MOVING AVERAGES (in thousands)

47

December 2007

March 2010

Net Change


Age 16+ 4.5 10.4 5.9Age 16-19 14.7 27.6 12.9Age 20+ 4.1 9.7 5.6

Male, All Races Age 16-19 15.1 30.3 15.2Age 20-24 8.2 21.8 13.6Age 25-34 4.4 13.0 8.6Age 35-44 3.1 10.5 7.3Age 45-54 3.0 9.1 6.2Age 55-64 2.9 8.0 5.1Over 64 6.2 10.5 4.2

Female, All Races Age 16-19 14.2 26.0 11.8Age 20-24 8.4 15.6 7.3Age 25-34 5.1 8.6 3.5Age 35-44 3.7 7.6 3.8Age 45-54 3.3 6.6 3.3Age 55-64 4.0 3.9 -0.1Over 64 5.7 11.7 6.0

North Carolina Unemployment Rate12-MONTH MOVING AVERAGES (in thousands)

48

How ESC Assists Older How ESC Assists Older WorkersWorkers

Older Worker Specialists in many of the ESC’s 92 Local Offices

Highlights to Employers benefit of employing older workers Wealth of work experience Possess a broad range of job skills Loyal, dedicated, dependable, & committed to

quality are often traits of older workers Federal tax credits to employers that hire

older workers

49

Assessment of the State’s Assessment of the State’s Readiness for its Aging Readiness for its Aging

PopulationPopulation Cabinet agencies, including ESC, have been

tasked to assess their readiness to serve North Carolina’s aging population.

This will include a review of: Existing and proposed policies focused toward

older adults Documents and initiatives which examine effects

of the aging population on policy and programs Older adults participation in shaping of

programs and policies Private and local government participation in

shaping of programs and policies

50

Lynn R. HolmesLynn R. Holmes

[email protected]

919.733.7546919.733.7546

P.O. Box 25903P.O. Box 25903

Raleigh, NC 27611-5903Raleigh, NC 27611-5903

the recession’s impact on the economy, employment and older workers

Documents

esc services employment

employment services0

weeksextended benefits

national situationbetween

national employmentseasonally

workforce related services

north carolinas citizens

north carolinacalendar