the question of the nuclear arms race in the middle east

7/27/2019 The Question of the Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East

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THE QUESTION OF THE

NUCLEAR ARMS RACE IN THE

MIDDLE EASTCommittee: DISEC

Study Guide

Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants. We know more

about war that we know about peace, more about killing that we know

about living. - Omar N. Bradley


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KCLMUN 2013-14 | Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East

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TABLE OF CONTENTSOverview .....................................................................................................................3

UN Measures ...............................................................................................................3

The NPT ...................................................................................................................4The CBT ...................................................................................................................4The ICJs Position......................................................................................................5

Nuclear Arms in the Middle East ..................................................................................6

Iran.......................................................................................................................... 6Israel .......................................................................................................................7

Recent Developments ..................................................................................................8

Key Points to Consider................................................................................................. 9


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OVERVIEW

The advent of nuclear technology presents a form of renewable energy superior

to most in its levels of efficiency and sustainability. Accessorily to such an ideal is the

threat and destructive potential of nuclear warfare. What was once a conceptual fear

of atomic warfare became a palpable reality in Hiroshima in 1945. The impact of

nuclear technology and the tension it creates continues to transcend borders and

substantially pervade the foreign policy of nations worldwide.

The ascent of nuclear weapons has resulted in a developing arms race in a world

teetering on the edge of conflagration. Such an issue is accentuated in the Middle East

a region of evolving tension and instability.

Born of a war that observed the destruction caused by atomic bombs, the United

Nations has, since its very conception, strived to end the spread of nuclear weapons

worldwide. The success of such ongoing efforts is questionable as treaties concerning

the prevention of nuclear weapons are not universal. Furthermore, once a country has

been able to incorporate a sector of nuclear weaponry into their security framework, it

becomes increasingly difficult to get them to dispose of them. Questions of balances

of power and deterrence continue to pervade the policy decisions made by nations

placing their own security above the idea of cooperation with an international peace-

keeping body.

UN MEASURESThe UN must act to protect non-nuclear nations and global citizens from

becoming victims to the advent of nuclear technology and illegal proliferation by

states. The UN has arguably not been too successful in preventing the development of

nuclear weapons globally, particularly within the Middle East. It has taken political and

economic sanctions against Iran due to the states lack of cooperation on the issue of

In nuclear war all men are cremated equal.

- Dexter Gordon


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nuclear proliferation, but the effectiveness of the sanctions is questionable. No action

has been actively taken against Israel.

THE NPT

The Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty (NPT) went into effect on

March 5, 1970. The impetus behind the NPT is to secure a universal method of

prevention of nuclear proliferation. It stipulates:

Article I: Each nuclear-weapons state (NWS) undertakes not to transfer, to anyrecipient, nuclear weapons, or other nuclear explosive devices, and not to assist

any non-nuclear weapon state to manufacture or acquire such weapons or

devices.

Article II: Each non-NWS party undertakes not to receive, from any source,nuclear weapons, or other nuclear explosive devices; not to manufacture or

acquire such weapons or devices; and not to receive any assistance in their

manufacture.

Article III: Each non-NWS party undertakes to conclude an agreement with theIAEA for the application of its safeguards to all nuclear material in all of the

state's peaceful nuclear activities and to prevent diversion of such material to

nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.

Article IV: 1. Nothing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as affecting theinalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production

and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination and in

conformity with Articles I and II of this Treaty.

Israel, India and Pakistan have never signed the Treaty.

THE CBT

The Comprehensive Ban Treaty (CBT) was adopted by the General Assembly in

1996 but has not yet taken effect due to the non-ratification of eight states. The CBT

was to create an obligation for all signatory states to prohibit any form of nuclear

explosion testing within the nation and to refrain from any association or participation

with nuclear explosion testing. The purpose of the CBT was to limit the ability of

nations to develop nuclear weapons and to set such a prohibition to become an

international norm. The US Senate has rejected the ratification of the Treaty, among


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other nations. Obama has stated that he will work to get the CBT ratified and

implemented, advocating the complete prohibition of nuclear testing. The Treaty has

never been implemented.

THE ICJS POSITIONLegality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weaponswas an advisory opinion

delivered by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on 8 July 1996. The question of the

legality of nuclear weapons was addressed by the Court. The decision was split 7 7

and procedurally the decision of the President was taken as the final one. Although 7

judges ruled that nuclear weapons should be definitively prohibited in all their forms,

the Presidents position and that of the other judges differed. The final decision was

consequently that nuclear weapons are not definitively illegal and may be used

legally when the very survival of the nation is at stake. However, the good faith of

nations must be relied upon to complete nuclear disarmament. In this way did the

ICJ leave a narrow window open to those countries developing nuclear weapons.

The programme to stop nuclear by 2020 is just crazy. If there were a nuclear war,

and humanity were wiped out, the Earth would breathe a sigh of relief.

-James Lovelock


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NUCLEAR ARMS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The Middle East is a highly volatile region, with nations sharing tense relations

and the Arab Spring increasing their instability. However, it is these relations that are

difficult to fully understand or analyze particularly considering narrow and politicized

media coverage. The UNs role in addressing the proposed issue is solely to ensure

that nuclear weapons are not possessed in the region and to do so to the same

standard as other countries worldwide. There are two situations in the Middle East that

require focus concerning the issue of nuclear proliferation: Israel and Iran.

IRAN

Irans uranium enrichment program was initiated decades ago in secret. It is alleged

that it was done through the acquisition of instructions and samples from Pakistans

infamous atomic bomb manufacturer and proliferator, AQ Khan. In 2002, an exiled

political opposition group in Iran declared the country to be secretly developing

nuclear enrichment programs. The IAEA later alleged that the country had

experimented with technologies critical for the manufacturing of nuclear weapons in

the past decades. Iran has more than 17 declared nuclear facilities that they claim to

be used for peaceful purposes. Iran is a party to the NPT but the UN has taken political

and economic sanctions against Iran for its non-compliance.

It is important to understand that the NPT does entitle Iran to enrich uranium

and use the resource for civilian purposes, such as developing energy reactors. Yet

You don't have any communication between the Israelis and the

Iranians. You have all sorts of local triggers for conflict. Having

countries act on a hair trigger - where they can't afford to be second to

strike - the potential for a miscalculation or a nuclear war through

inadvertence is simply too high. - Dennis Ross


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Article II prohibits any development of nuclear explosive devices. A total of six UN

Security Council resolutions have called for Irans immediate suspension of any nuclear

activities until appropriate investigations are conducted into the allegedly peaceful

nature of the programs.

Although the subject of a nuclear Iran has pervaded public discussion and

media coverage for years, there has been no confirmation of the existence of nuclear

weapons in the country. Analysts have attempted to guess at a timeline of the

development of weapons in Iran and politicians have attempted to guess at the

countrys intentions. Until now, no reliable conclusion has been reached. Also, it may

not be true that Iran has something to hide in refusing investigations, as the countrys

foreign policy is characterised by hostility to the West and is strongly against foreign

intervention in the domestic issues of a nation. The suspicions do exist and Iran hasnot cooperated to allow for them to be confirmed or dispelled. Irans new president is

recently attempting to allow for more cooperation and the position may be shifting.

ISRAEL

Israel manifests a position hostile to the majority if not all Arab countries. Such

feelings of hostility are mutual and pose a continuing threat of instability in the region.

Israel has also allegedly engaged in the use of chemical weapons against the people of

Palestine (which has now been recognised as a country by the UN following a GeneralAssembly resolution in 2012). As such, it is of the prime concern of this committee to

ensure the prohibition of nuclear proliferation in Israel.

Israel has not acceded to the NPT and refuses investigations of their nuclear

plants to be carried out by UN bodies, posing a major issue for this committee. The

Israeli government has never confirmed nor denied the existence of nuclear weapons,

although it is now assumed that possession is confirmed after a nuclear technician

published evidence about the program in 1986.

The danger is posed by Israels possession of nuclear weapons is highly

amplified by the threat posed to the non-nuclear state of Palestine. Israel has been

suspected to have used chemical weapons against the people of Palestine, residing in

the Gaza strip, and the tension between the two nations has not been simmering

down. The protection of neighboring Palestine is an important issue


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The balance of power in the Middle East and destruction caused by Israel in the

region needs to be considered. President Bashar Al-Assad has cited that the

development of weapons in Syria was conducted to deter Israels nuclear proliferation.

Israel is continuously adamant about not acceding to any treaty to limit its possession

of chemical or nuclear weapons amongst its hostile neighbours. Media focus and

public opinion is directed towards the need to strip Iran and Syria of their illegal

weapons, strategically ignoring those allegedly possessed by Israel. In a way, both

Israel and Irans nuclear proliferation, as well as development of illegal weapons across

the Middle East, is actually dependant on one another and the persisting conflict. They

are two sides of the same coin, as one would not adamantly refuse the limitations of

such weapons without the other doing the same.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

September 2013: The IAEA has rejected an Arab-backed resolution callingfor measures regarding Israels alleged atomic arsenal. A resolution was

presented at the annual IAEA conference stipulating concern about Israeli

nuclear capabilities and calls upon Israel to accede to the NPT and place all its

nuclear facilities under comprehensive IAEA safeguards. The resolution failed

narrowly with 51 votes against, 43 votes in favour and 32 abstentions. The

resolution attempted to get Israel to sign the NPT allow for the legally required

UN investigations to take place annually. Israel responded by saying that the

resolution is a form of Israel-bashing which reflects the politicization of the

IAEA.

Mid-October 2013: Talks in Geneva: Iran is said to have prepared a set ofproposals that it will be taking to talks in Geneva in Mid-October 2013. Under

their new president, Iran will be attempting negotiations with the P5 on the

issue of nuclear proliferation for the first time. Their proposals are alleged to

include a plan to reduce uranium enrichment to levels of 20 percent purity,

which is the level required for the development of nuclear weapons. Spokesman

for Iran have asserted their pro-active position to solving the issue of nuclear


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proliferation in a short period of time, through positive cooperation with UN

bodies.

President Hassan Rouhani of Iran is calling for the immediate lifting ofinternational political and economic sanctions that have been imposed on Iran.

KEY POINTS TO CONSIDER The UNs jurisdiction cannot go beyond that which is acceded to by the

nations themselves, yet Israel and Iran have continued to reject cooperation or

any ascent to the NPT. While Irans position may be changing under the new

president, there is no sign of Israel becoming any less hostile.

The balance of power between Israel and Iran is contingent to halting thedevelopment of the nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

The state of Palestine is an important consideration in this issue as Israelspossession of nuclear weapons poses a particular danger to the

underrepresented Palestinian people.

How can the UN achieve a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East and/or worktowards a viable solution to the issue of nuclear threats in the region when

Israel has continuously rejected the NPT? What body of law may the UN apply todo so? Should sanctions be taken upon Israel, the same way they have been

taken with Iran?

Should the renewable and sustainable nature of nuclear technology allow forleeway and a laissez-faire attitude towards nuclear development?

You can't say civilization don't advance... in every war they

kill you in a new way. - Will Rogers


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What measures can individual countries take to prohibit the sale of nuclearweapon materials by private companies to other countries and groups?

Are economic sanctions, trade embargoes, and military pressure justifiablein such cases? Are they methods of oppressing certain nations? Or are they

effective?

The UN should currently be looking towards solutions that address issuesincluding but not limited to:

o A nuclear test ban;o Universal acceptance of the NPT;o Effective international arrangements to assure non-nuclear-weapon states

against the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons;

o The consideration of the benefits and consequences of nations'requirements for fissile material considering the environmental

o Prevention of states acquiring nuclear weapons through the black market.Such concern may take into account uranium-purchasing countries such

as Syria that have previously attempted to employ Russian scientists for

high fees.

The release of atomic energy has not created a new problem. It has merely

made more urgent the necessity of solving an existing one.

- Albert Einstein

the question of the nuclear arms race in the middle east

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