the psychology of biases
DESCRIPTION
Are you convinced that test-driven development (TDD) will benefit your team, but you find some developers view the practice as unproductive and unhelpful? Are you the lone voice advocating for continuous integration (CI), really convinced it will bring huge benefits, but others don't want to listen? Do you see the wisdom of secure-by-design and actively assessing software security, yet management feels that they've avoided any problems so far and assume they'll continue to avoid problems. Research tells us that the information we take in depends on a person’s assumptions, aversions, biases, and preconceptions. Broadly speaking, psychologists and scientists call these cognitive biases. People who study organizational behavior use their understanding of cognitive biases to bring important improvements and change to individuals, teams, and organizations. Come learn about common cognitive biases that impact development teams. Let's explore strategies to identify and cope with seemingly irrational decisions against new and better practices. Through specific examples, learn some straightforward ways that may help you manage the opposition you encounter that can hold teams back. Stephen Ritchie is the author of Pro .NET Best Practices (http://www.apress.com/9781430240235) and the organizer of the DC ALT .NET group (http://www.meetup.com/dcaltnet). He has been writing software professionally for over 20 years. Stephen works as a software development consultant at Excella Consulting in the Washington, D.C. area. His passion for following best practices has taught him to appreciate the value of experience, practical know-how, and continuous learning. Stephen is the .NET best practices steward at Excella Consulting, working with .NET project teams to facilitate and sort out the helpful practices from the unhelpful ones, the practicable from the impracticable, and the "sounds good" from the "it really is good" practices and principles.TRANSCRIPT
The Psychology of Biases Why Some Folks Are Averse to Better Development Practices
Stephen Ritchie15-Apr-2014
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Warm Up
• Three Clues–Handouts–Two Secret Clues–Third Clue in the Slides
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Warm Up
• Third clue:– One word answer– Begins with “H”– Ends with “y”
• Once the question is asked, quickly write down your one word answer.
• Stand up once you have the answer.
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Warm Up
What one word best describes how she was feeling just before Mary had a little lamb?
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Warm Up
What are your answers?
Happy
Hungry
Hostility
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Definition
Cognitive Bias
Own “subjective reality” from their perception of input
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Personal Story
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Personal Story
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Cognitive Bias
SemmelweisReflex
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Meet the man …
Dr. Semmelweis, M.D.
Obstetrician
Young
Vienna
1846
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Problem: Childbed Fever
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Mother’s Mortality Rate
Up To 30%
Semmelweis’ Hospital
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Mother’s Morality Rate
More Moderate
7.5%
Neighboring Hospital
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Scientific Method
Q: Why the difference?
Hypothesis
Experiment Conclusion
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Hypothesis
Between the morgue…
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Hypothesis
And the delivery room…
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Hypothesis
Disinfect!
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Mother’s Mortality Rate
Mortality Rate Dropped
Under 1%
Semmelweis’ Results
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Conclusion
Lack of Cleanliness
Caused Death
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Headline
1847: PhysicianMakes Amazing Discovery
Easy to implement, easily proven, and clearly saves lives.
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Why has nobody ever heard of him?
Dr. Semmelweis, M.D.
Who?Semmel
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Semmelweis’ Approach
ConventionalWisdom
Challenged
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Contemporaries’ Beliefs
Hippocrates4 Humours
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Reaction
Rejection
Criticism
Scorn
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Definition
Semmelweis Reflex
Reject new evidencethat contradicts
established beliefs
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Preaching Heresy
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Test-Driven Development
Test
CodeRefactor
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Confound Your Logic, Mr. Spock!
LogicalSequentialRationalAnalytical
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No Silver Bullet
FaultDefectWrongSolution
Avoid
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Focus On The Pain
Pain PointsAdaptations
Experiments
Results Outcomes
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Doctor McDreamy
Understanding
Gentle
Helpful
Intuitive
Patient
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Epilogue
So, whateverbecame of
Dr. Semmelweis?
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Lured To An Asylum …
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Put in a straightjacket …
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Honored Posthumously
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Don’t Be Like Semmelweis
InsistenceAvoid:
ObsessionArrogance
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Relax, Have Fun Wit It
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Cognitive Bias
NormalcyBias
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Tornado Alley
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How many tornado shelters in “Tornado Alley”?
Oklahoma
Percentage of homes with storm shelters?
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Surprisingly
In the Oklahoma City area, perhaps 10 to 20 percent of homes have
some kind of formal shelter.
Most houses and public buildings in ‘Tornado Alley’ lack storm shelters, by Agence France-Presse. May 22, 2013
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Surprisingly
“Unfortunately, people prefer homes with swimming
pools rather than storm shelters,” said Oklahoma State Representative Joe
DormanMost houses and public buildings in ‘Tornado Alley’ lack storm shelters, by Agence France-Presse. May 22, 2013
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Definition
Normalcy Bias
Underestimate both the possibility and
effects of a disaster
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With a name like Target, are we surprised?
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Security Development Lifecycle
Security & PrivacyRisk AssessmentsStatic Analysis
Incident ResponseFuzz Testing
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SDL Implementation
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Six Sigma
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Cognitive Bias
Ambiguity Effect
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OCR
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Punch Card
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Tried and True
“… it would be excessively costly to IBM to quickly introduce more modern
machinery using electronics and magnetic tape instead of
relays and punched cards.”
From Tabulators to Early Computers in the U.S. Life Insurance Industry: Co-evolution and Continuities, JoAnne Yates, October 1993, CCS WP #153, Sloan School WP #3618-93
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Definition
Ambiguity EffectFavor an option
where the outcome is known over one where the outcome
is unknown
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Exercise
• On your index card• Write 3 specific examples• Organizations pick development
patterns and practices that are– “old and adequate” over “new and
better”– “tried and true” over “possibly better”– “always done it” over “unprecedented”
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Why did we decide to go with …
Automated Testing
Manual Testing
over
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Why did we decide to go with …
Automated Builds
Manual Builds
over
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Why did we decide to go with …
Scripts
Manual Configuration
over
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Why did we decide to go with …
Continuous Integration
Final Integration
over
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Knowledge, Skill, and Attitude
What to doBarriers
How to do itWhy to do it
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Training, Coaching, and Practice
Short tutorialTrial periodTraining course
Measure valueEmbed a coach
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Cognitive Bias
Dunning-Kruger Effect
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Definition
Dunning-Kruger Effect
Some people can wildly overestimate their relative competence
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I want to be a lion tamer!
Monty Python - Vocational Guidance Counselor sketch
http://youtu.be/4h-wVe9a6rQ?t=1m6s
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Definition
Dunning-Kruger EffectPeople with true ability
can tend to underestimate their relative competence
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Let’s switch to NoSQL
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Uninitiated
Easy conceptInflated experts
Not yet challenged
Lack experience
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Knowledge Transfer, Experience, and Expertise
Patience & wisdomProof-of-conceptKnowledge transfer
Know-howExperience
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We are all individuals. (I’m not!)
“In a very real sense there is no such thing as
organizational behavior. There is only individual
behavior. Everything else flows out of that.”
Principle-Centered Leadership, Stephen Covey
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• Stephen Ritchie• Excella Consulting
– .NET developer– “Best Practices”– Training agile eng– ScrumMaster/coach
• http://www.linkedin.com/in/sritchie
• @ruthlesshelp• Organizer DC Alt.NET
Shameless Self Promotion
http://amzn.to/v8TD8E