The prognosis for long-term youth unemployment

Tony Wilson, Policy DirectorCentre for Economic & Social Inclusion

@tonywilsoncesiwww.cesi.org.uk

We know the headlines – near record youth unemployment...

Since recession, now clear that young have fared much worse than older

And worst of all: long-term unemployment quadrupled in last

decade and still rising

Areas: those with highest unemployment have seen largest rises

Local Authority level youth unemployment, 2008 and now

Local Authority level youth unemployment, 2008 and now

Blaenau GwentHartlepool

South TynesideMerthyr Tydfil

WolverhamptonRedcar and Cleveland

SandwellDerry

Limavady

KnowsleyMiddlesbroughNorth AyrshireStrabaneWalsallCaerphillyKingston upon Hull

Areas: those with highest unemployment have seen largest rises

The Government’s five priorities...

Building Engagement, Building Futures, Dec 2011

1. Raising educational attainment2. Full participation in education or work for 16-17

year olds• Raising the Participation Age

3. Employer engagement • Expansion of apprenticeships, work experience

4. Supporting those out of work to get into work• Through Jobcentre Plus and Work Programme

5. Delivering the Youth Contract• Wage subsidies, support for low qualified

The Government’s five priorities...

Building Engagement, Building Futures, Dec 2011

1. Raising educational attainment2. Full participation in education or work for 16-17

year olds• Raising the Participation Age

3. Employer engagement • Expansion of apprenticeships, work experience

4. Supporting those out of work to get into work• Through Jobcentre Plus and Work Programme

5. Delivering the Youth Contract• Wage subsidies, support for low qualified

But is this enough?

• Work Programme• Underperformed... (but not as much as some claim)• DWP handed back to Treasury £250 million in

underspends this year

• Youth Contract• Likely low take-up – below 10,000 a year?• Probably 70%+ will be “deadweight”...• ... So net impact of 2-3,000?

• We’re spending less per person on support for long-term unemployed than any time since 1990s

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Community Programme

Community Action

Young Person’s

Guarantee/ FJF

New Deal for Young

People

Adult Employment Subsidy

Young Workers Scheme

Workstart pilot

NationalInsurance

Contributions holiday

Six Month Offer Youth

Contract

New Deal employer options

Training and job creation/ work

experience

Wage subsidies

+ a wealth of international evidence

A potted history...

And many of these worked – for e.g.

So what can we do about it?!

First, tackle complexity – local leadership and shared objectives are critical

Work Programme

City Deals

SFA Support for Unemployed

Mandatory Work Activity

Community Action Programme

JCP Flexible Support Fund

Work Choice

EFA Youth Contract

DWP Youth Contract

Local Authority provision

DWP work experienceTalent Match

Apprenticeships

Traineeships

Second, more support for longest unemployed

• Pool/ align funding to enable local partnerships to create quality work experience/ real jobs

• Youth Contract wage subsidy; a bit of skills money; bit of Work Programme; Growth Fund; ESF; VCS/ LA/ employer cash

• Deliver through Work Programme – reaching longest-term unemployed

• Learn from what worked before• And deliver for all

Third, relentless focus on youth unemploymentTo stop people reaching twelve months

• The right (and more) support to find and apply for jobs

• Improving confidence, self-esteem, motivation• Some targeted support to improve skills for those

with low/ no quals – small scale, relevant to jobs market, holistic

• Tackle negative signals to employers – keep going with work experience schemes

The prognosis for long-term youth unemployment

Tony Wilson, Policy DirectorCentre for Economic & Social Inclusion

@tonywilsoncesiwww.cesi.org.uk