the price of inaction: analysis of energy and economic effects of a nuclear iran

7/31/2019 The Price of Inaction: Analysis of Energy and Economic Effects of a Nuclear Iran

1/48

Jntjkar ;68;

Bhtmjbho ^anurmty Vrj`rhi

Djram`b Vjomny Vrjlant

Uca Vrmna jd Mbhntmjb


2/48

HNGBJPO AE@IABU ^

Pa rhtaduooy hngbjwoaeà tca hssmsthbna jd tca [avmaw Kjhre, jutsmea axparts wcj

axhimbae tca iatcjejoj`mnho djubehtmjbs jd tcms stuey hbe prjvmeae daaekhng jb

jur rasahrnc. H kmphrtmshb hrrhy jd djriar jvarbiabt hbe imomthry jdnmhos drji tca

Qbmtae thtas hbe jtcar njubtrmas hosj njbtrmkutae njiiabts hbe su`àstmjbs, kut

nhbbjt ka hngbjwoaeàe ky bhia amtcar kanhusa jd tcamr nurrabt pjsmtmjbs jr kanhusa

tcay raquastae hbjbyimty. Dmbhooy, wa tchbg KVN mbtarb Ehvme Kahrewjje djr cms

njbtrmkutmjb.

E M ^ N O H M I A [

Ucms rapjrt ms h prjeunt jd tca Kmphrtmshb Vjomny Nabtars Djram`b Vjomny Vrjlant (DVV)

hbe h Uhsg Djrna jd 84 iaikars wmtc emvarsa axpartmsa hbe hdomhtmjbs. Heemtmjbhooy,

tca iatcjejoj`y, rasahrnc hbe ijeaos njbeuntae hs h phrt jd tcms rapjrt wara vattae

ky h [avmaw Kjhre jd bmba heemtmjbho axparts wmtc khng`rjube mb abar`y ihrgats,

ihnrjanjbjimns, jr kjtc, wcj eme bjt njbtrmkuta tj tca wrmtmb` jd jr bemb`s

prasabtae mb tca rapjrt. Uca bemb`s axprassae caramb hra tcjsa sjoaoy jd DVV hbe tca

Uhsg Djrna, tcju`c bj iaikar ihy ka shtmsae wmtc avary djriuohtmjb mb tca rapjrt.

Uca rapjrt ejas bjt banasshrmoy raprasabt tca vmaws jr jpmbmjbs jd tca [avmaw Kjhre,

tca Kmphrtmshb Vjomny Nabtar, mts djubears jr mts kjhre jd emrantjrs.


3/48

Uca Vrmna jd Mbhntmjb< Hbhoysms jd Abar`y hbe Anjbjimn Addants jd h Bunoahr Mrhb

Hs djriar pjomtmnho hbe imomthry oahears, wa ranj`bmza hbe

aikrhna tca mipjrthbna jd hbhoyzmb` avary smea jd hb mssua,

aspanmhooy wcab mt ms hs njipoax hbe njbsaquabtmho hs tca

nchooabà pjsae ky Mrhbs bunoahr prj`rhi. Mb pravmjus

rapjrts, wa chva nhooae djr h vmkrhbt pukomn eakhta hkjut

tca tcraht pjsae ky h bunoahr Mrhb. Qbearsthbehkoy, iunc

pukomn emsnussmjb hkjut Mrhbs bunoahr hikmtmjb chs djnusaejb tca pjtabtmho djr imomthry njbmnt.

Ucju`c tcara hra ihby ubgbjwbs wmtc tca usa jd djrna, mt

ms narthmboy ahsmar tj hssass tca omgaoy anjbjimn miphnt jd

imomthry hntmjb tchb mt ms tj avhouhta tca njsts jd mbhntmjb.

Ucms phpar thgas jb tca chrear hbhoytmnho thsg jd axpojrmb`

tca anjbjimn njbsaquabnas jd ncjjsmb` tj omva wmtc hbe

njbthmb h bunoahr Mrhb. Mt ejas sj ky axhimbmb` cjw abar`y

ihrgats im`ct raspjbe md Mrhb ms kaomavae tj chva hnqumrae h

bunoahr wahpjb hbe wcht tca anjbjimn rhimnhtmjbs jd tcht

raspjbsa njuoe ka.

Jur kmphrtmshb thsg djrna njiprmsas h emvarsa `rjup jd

axpartsdjriar aoantae jdnmhos, imomthry oahears, empojihts,

pjomny ihgars, abar`y hbhoysts, hbe anjbjimsts. Pa chva

kaab durtcar hssmstae mb jur addjrt ky hb mbeapabeabt

bjb-phrtmshb ravmaw kjhre jd abar`y-ihrgat axparts hbe

anjbjimsts, usmb` hb asthkomscae anjbjimn ijeao.

Uca snabhrmj-ermvab hpprjhnc wa aipojy ms njiijboy usae

tj hssass njipoax mbtarhntmjbs. Ky easm`b, tcasa axarnmsas

hra mipranmsa kut moouimbhtmb`. Pa chva sju`ct tj ihga jur

hssuiptmjbs eathmoae hbe axpomnmt mb jrear tj abhkoa rahears

tj rahnc tcamr jwb lueìabts.

Pa cjpa tcms phpar prjvas mbdjrihtmva hbe abrmncas eakhta

hijb` tca pukomn hbe pjomny ihgars.

Oattar drji tca Nj-Nchmrs

âbhtjr Nchroas ^. [jkk @abarho (rat.) Nchroas Phoe

^mbnaraoy,


4/48

Bhtmjbho ^anurmty Vrj`rhiDjram`b Vjomny Vrjlant


5/48


Ljcb Chbbhc

Djriar Hssmsthbt djr Bhtmjbho ânurmty

Hddhmrs tj tca Tmna Vrasmeabt

Ae Cushmb

âbmjr Daoojw djr Imeeoa Ahstarb

^tuemas, Njubnmo jb Djram`b [aohtmjbs

[aukab Laddray MMM

Djriar Qbmtae ^thtas Qbear ânrathry

jd ^thta djr Anjbjimn, Kusmbass, hbe

H`rmnuoturho Hddhmrs

Heimrho (rat.) @ra`jry Ljcbsjb

Djriar Njiihbear jd Q.^. Bhvho

Djrnas, Aurjpa7 âbmjr Hevmsar,

Kmphrtmshb Vjomny Nabtar

@abarho (rat.) [jb Gays

Djriar Njiihbear, Hmr Njikht

Njiihbe

^tapcab [heaihgar

Djriar Hssmsthbt ânrathry jd ^thta djr

Hris Njbtrjo hbe Bjbprjomdarhtmjb

Hikhsshejr Eabbms [jss

Njubsaojr, Uca Phscmb`tjb Mbstmtuta

djr Bahr Ahst Vjomny7 Djriar spanmho

hssmsthbt tj Vrasmeabt Jkhih hbe B^Nâbmjr Emrantjr djr tca Nabtrho [a`mjb

Uca Cjbjrhkoa Ljcb Uhbbar

Djriar Q.^. [aprasabthtmva drji

Uabbassaa

Ijrtmiar \ungarihb

NAJ hbe Nchmrihb jd tca Kjhre jd

Emrantjrs, Kjstjb Vrjpartmas, Mbn.

Djram`b Vjomny Vrjlant

UH^G DJ[NA IAIKA[^

Er. Ehbmao Hcb

âbmjr Anjbjimst hbe Cahe jd Vjrtdjomj

^trhta`y, NmtmKhbg Baw ]jrg

Uca Cjbjrhkoa Ncrmstjpcar Nhrbay

Djriar Q.^. [aprasabthtmva drji

Vabbsyovhbmh

Hikhsshejr Armn Aeaoihb

Djriar Qbear ânrathry jd Eadabsa djr

Vjomny

ânrathry Ehb @omngihb

âbmjr Daoojw, Kmphrtmshb Vjomny

Nabtar7 Djriar Nchmrihb, Q.^. Cjusa

Varihbabt âoant Njiimttaa jb

Mbtaoomàbna

Ohrry @joestamb

Djubear jd Abar`y Vjomny [asahrnc

Djubehtmjb, Mbn.

UH^G DJ[NA NJ-NCHM[^

âbhtjr Nchroas [jkk

Djriar @jvarbjr jd hbe

Q.^. âbhtjr drji Tmr`mbmh

@abarho (rat.) Nchroas Phoe

Djriar Eaputy Njiihbear

jd Q.^. Aurjpahb Njiihbe7

Kmphrtmshb Vjomny Nabtar Kjhre Iaikar

Ljbhtchb [uca

âbmjr Vjomny Hbhoyst

Hsctjb Gubgoa

Heimbmstrhtmva Hssmsthbt

DJ[AM@B VJOMN]V[JLANU ÛHDD

Er. Imnchao Ihgjvsgy

Emrantjr

Kohmsa Imsztho

Hssjnmhta Emrantjr


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Djram`b Vjomny Vrjlant Uhsg Djrna

Vhuo Oamky

@rjup Oahear, Abar`y Hbhoysms, Jhg

[meà Bhtmjbho Ohkjrhtjry

@uy Nhrusj

âbmjr Hevmsar djr Abar`y hbe Bhtmjbho

ânurmty, Nabtar djr ^trhta`mn hbe

Mbtarbhtmjbho ^tuemas

Ihttcaw @aodhbe

Ihbh`mb` Emrantjr, [jngadaooar

Dmbhbnmho

Pmoomhi Cj`hb

[hyijbe Vohbg Vrjdassjr jd @ojkho

Abar`y Vjomny, Ljcb D. Gabbaey ncjjo

jd @jvarbiabt, Chrvhre Qbmvarsmty

Kjk InBhooy

Djubear hbe Vrasmeabt, [hpmehb

@rjup

Vcmoomp whào

Vrjdassjr, Qbmvarsmty jd Ihryohbe

^ncjjo jd Vukomn Vjomny

[ATMAP KJH[E

Ehvme Nchsihb

Vrmbnmpho,

GE [asjurnas

Ae Ijrsa

Ihbh`mb` Emrantjr hbe Cahe jd @ojkho

Njiijemtmas [asahrnc, Nmtm`rjup

[hbey ômdgh

Ihbh`mb` Vrmbnmpho,

ômdgh Hssat Ihbhàiabt


7/48


Axanutmva uiihry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0

^nabhrmjs & Njbsaquabnas . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8>

Jmo Emsruptmjbs hbe tca Imeeoa Ahst. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8>

Iatcjejoj`y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8>

^nabhrmjs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85^nabhrmj # 8< Ejiastmn Mbsthkmomty mb huem Hrhkmh . . . . . . . . 85

^nabhrmj # ;< huem Dhnmomt mas Eastrjyae . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .80

^nabhrmj # >< ^hbntmjbs Ohpsa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8=

^nabhrmj # 5< Mrhb- huem Bunoahr Axnchb`a . . . . . . . . . . . . .;6

^nabhrmj # 1< Mrhb-Msrhao Bunoahr Axnchb a . . . . . . . . . . . . .;5

[msg Vraimui . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ;=

Iatcjejoj`y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ;=

Njbsaquabnas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ;=

Hppabemnas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . >>

M. Abar`y Ihrgat Eybhimns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . >>

H. Uca jurnas jd Jmo Vrmnas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . >>

K. H Cmstjry jd Jmo Vrmna pmgas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .>>

N. Jmo Axpjrts drji tca Varsmhb @uod . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .>5

E. Hotarbhtmva Axpjrt [jutas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . >4

A. Jmo Vrmnas hbe Q.^. Anjbjiy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .>4

MM. Iatcjejoj`y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . >0

H. Eavaojpmb` nabhrmjs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . >0

K. Vrmnmb` [msg . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . >3

N. Anjbjimn Miphnts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . >=

E. Nhvaht . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

Abebjtas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5>

Uhkoa jd Njbtabts


8/48

6

6 ;66 >66 gi866

866 ;66 im

B

@uod jd Jihb

^trhmtjdCjriuz

H [ H K M H B ^ A H

VA[

^MHB

@Q

O D

^HQEM

H[HKMH

HD@CHBMÛHB

VHGMÛHBM[HB

GQPHMU

JIHB

JIHB

XHUH[

QBMUAE H[HK AIM[HUA^

M[HX

Uacrhb

Xji

Khbehr Hkkhs

Kh`cehe

Hrhg

Bhthbz

Hkhehb

Asdhchb

Kuscacr

KHC[HMB

Gchrg Msohbe

Ho Khsrhc

[hs Uhburh

Hkqhmq

Ahst-Past Vmpaomba

Hku Echkm NrueaJmo Vmpaomba

Jmo thbgar tarimbhos

Jmo aoes

Jmo pmpaomba

[aom`mjus Njipjsmtmjb

^cmh

ûbbm hbe

^cmh imxae



9/48


Ucara ms jvarwcaoimb`, kmphrtmshb suppjrt mb Phscmb`tjb,

drji kjtc prasmeabtmho nhbemehtas, hbe hnrjss tca njubtry

djr pravabtmb` h bunoahr Mrhb. Cjwavar, jur pjomtmnho oahears

iust njbeunt h rjkust pukomn emsnussmjb tcht tcjrju`coy

axpojras tca bhtura jd tca Mrhbmhb tcraht, tca emddarabt pjomny

jptmjbs hvhmohkoa, hbe tcamr njbsaquabnas.

Mrhbs bunoahr hikmtmjbs nrahta abjrijusoy nchooab`mb`

mssuas wmtc bj ahsy sjoutmjbs. Mb tca pukomn eakhta eurmb`

tca ohst yahr, h ranurrmb` njbnarb chs kaab tca anjbjimn

rmsgs pjsae ky tca hvhmohkoa iahbs djr pravabtmb` h bunoahr

Mrhb, wcatcar tju`c shbntmjbs jr imomthry hntmjb. ûnc

anjbjimn rmsgs hra h oa`mtmihta njbnarb. Ucay easarva

tj ka emsnussae hbe ubearstjje. Cjwavar, tj ihga hb

mbdjriae lueìabt hkjut wcmnc pjomny tj pursua, jur

pukomn emsnussmjb iust njbsmear bjt lust tca njsts jd

stjppmb` Mrhbs bunoahr hikmtmjbs, kut hosj tca njsts jd

dhmomb` tj ej sj.

Mbhntmjb, tjj, axpjsas tca Qbmtae ^thtas tj anjbjimn rmsgs.

Ucms phpar hmis tj `mva tcai suksthbna hbe easnrmka

wcht tcay im`ct ka. Mts purpjsa ms tj mih`mba tca wjroe

wmtc h bunoahr Mrhb hbe axhimba lust jba emiabsmjb jd

tca njbsaquabnas< tca miphnt jb òjkho jmo prmnas hbe tca

rasuotmb` addant jb tca Q.^. anjbjiy.

Jur Uhsg Djrna ms bjt su`àstmb` tcht tcasa wmoo ka tca jboy

njsts tca Qbmtae ^thtas wjuoe kahr md njbdrjbtae wmtc h

bunoahr Mrhb. Ucara wjuoe ka iyrmhe njbsaquabnas, emrant

hbe mbemrant, jboy sjia jd wcmnc nhb ka djrasaab hbequhbtmae. Hs Vrasmeabt Jkhih jksarvae ranabtoy ht tca

Qbmtae Bhtmjbs, h bunoahr-hriae Mrhb ms bjt h nchooabà

tcht nhb ka njbthmbae. Mt wjuoe tcrahtab tca aomimbhtmjb

jd Msrhao, tca sanurmty jd @uod bhtmjbs, hbe tca sthkmomty jd

tca òjkho anjbjiy. Mt rmsgs trm`àrmb` h bunoahr-hris rhna

mb tca ra`mjb hbe tca ubrhvaomb` jd tca bjb-prjomdarhtmjb

trahty.8Mb heemtmjb tj tcjsa iabtmjbae ky Jkhih, tcara

hra ihby jtcar njsts jd h bunoahr Mrhb wa ej bjt njbsmear

mb tcms phpar, mbnouemb`< `rahtar Mrhbmhb mbuabna mb tca

ra`mjb7 aikjoeabae Mrhbmhb-spjbsjrae tarrjrmst `rjups,sunc hs Cazkjoohc7 tca durtcar sprahe jd rhemnho Msohimsi

hbe hbtm-Hiarmnhbmsi mb hb horahey tuiuotujus ra`mjb7 tca

raeunae nchbna djr Hrhk-Msrhaom pahna7 hbe `rahtar imomthry

eapojyiabts tj tca ra`mjb tcht Hiarmnhb thxphyars wmoo

baae tj dube tj try tj eatar Mrhbmhb h``rassmjb. Ijrajvar,

wa ej bjt saag tj mipoy tcht anjbjimn njbsmearhtmjbs, ky

tcaisaovas, hra h lustmnhtmjb djr imomthry hntmjb jr tju`car

shbntmjbs h`hmbst Mrhb.

Uacrhb nrjssmb` tca bunoahr tcrascjoe ms ubomgaoy tj nhusa

hb miiaemhta emsruptmjb mb tca jw jd jmo. Mt wjuoe, cjwavar,

sm`bmnhbtoy hotar tca àjpjomtmnho hbe strhta`mn ohbesnhpa

jd tca Imeeoa Ahst, rhmsmb` tca omgaomcjje jd mbsthkmomty,

tarrjrmsi, jr njbmnt tcht njuoe mbtarrupt tca ra`mjbs jmo

axpjrts. Md hby sunc emsruptmjb eme jnnur, mt wjuoe chva h

sm`bmnhbt addant jb tca suppoy hbe prmna jd jmo.

Imeeoa Ahst jmo ms nrmtmnho tj tca òjkho anjbjiy. Axpjrts

drji tca ra`mjbijra tchb chod jd wcmnc njia drji ^huem

Hrhkmhduooo bahroy ;6 parnabt jd òjkho ehmoy jmo eaihbe,

hbe >1 parnabt jd hoo sahkjrba-trheae jmo phssas tcrju`c

tca ^trhmt jd Cjriuz. Uca Varsmhb @uod^huem Hrhkmh mb

phrtmnuohrhosj ms cjia tj bahroy hoo tca wjroes sphraprjeuntmjb nhphnmty7 md jmo prjeuntmjb jr axpjrts drji tca

ra`mjb hra mbtarruptae, tca rast jd tca wjroe wjuoe chva hb

axtraiaoy emdnuot tmia rapohnmb` tcjsa suppomas.

Axanutmva ûiihry


10/48

Axanutmva ûiihry

Uj hbhoyza tca njbsaquabnas jd tca mbnrahsae axpanthtmjb

jd emsruptmjbs hbe tca pjssmkoa jnnurrabnas jd sunc

emsruptmjbs tcht wjuoe rasuot drji h bunoahr Mrhb, jur stuey

aipojys hb hbhoytmn hpprjhnc eavaojpae mb njbsuothtmjb

wmtc jmo ihrgat hbhoysts. Dmrst, wa eavaojpae va pjssmkoa

snabhrmjsahnc hbhoyzae mbemvmeuhooytcht njuoe

miphnt tca jw jd jmo tcrju`c tca Varsmhb @uod khsae jb h

rhbà jd pjomtmnho, empojihtmn, hbe imomthry raparnussmjbs

jd h bunoahr Mrhb. ânjbe, wa axhimbae cjw iunc jd

tca wjroes jmo suppoy ahnc snabhrmj njuoe emsrupt hbe

hssassae tca addant jb prmnas wara sunc h emsruptmjb tj

jnnur. Ucmre, tca iaikars jd tcms Uhsg Djrna hs waoo hs

jutsmea axparts njbtrmkutae tcamr mbdjriae lueìabtshkjut tca prjkhkmomty tcht ahnc jd tca snabhrmjs wmoo jnnur

wmtcmb tcraa tmia cjrmzjbs< tca nurrabt sthtus quj, wmtcmb

jba yahr jd Mrhb nrjssmb` tca bunoahr tcrascjoe, hbe mb tca

djoojwmb` twj yahrs.>Djurtc, usmb` tca hbtmnmphtae mbnrahsa

mb tca omgaomcjje jd emsruptmjbs, wa ijeaoae tca nchbà

mb rmsg praimuitca vhoua heeae tj tca prmna eua tj tca

axpanthtmjb jd emsruptmjbtcht wjuoe rasuot drji h bunoahr

Mrhb.5Dmbhooy, usmb` asthkomscae ihnrjanjbjimn ijeaos,

wa ijeaoae tca miphnt jd ahnc jd tcasa pjssmkoa jmo prmna

Kut h suppoy emsruptmjb ms bjt tca jboy why h bunoahr

Mrhb njuoe miphnt abar`y prmnas. Jmo ihrgats raspjbe tj

parnaptmjbs jd dutura rmsgs tj suppoy hbe eaihbe.;Jur

hbhoysms su`àsts tcht h bunoahr Mrhb wjuoe cam`ctab

axpanthtmjb jd pjtabtmho dutura emsruptmjbs, wcmnc scjuoe

trhbsohta, md ubearstjje prjparoy, mbtj hb mbnrahsae rmsg

praimui heeae jbtj jmo prmnas djr hs ojb` hs tca njbnarbs

hbe tabsmjbs raihmb. Mb jtcar wjres, hbtmnmphtmjb jd dutura

abar`y emsruptmjb wjuoe ka prmnae mbtj tca ihrgat, oahemb`

tj cm`car jmo hbe `hsjomba prmnas.


11/48


Md hby jd tca njbmnts jr abar`y emsruptmjbs tcht kanjia

ijra omgaoy drji h bunoahr Mrhb hntuhooy jnnur, tca abar`y

miphnt hbe anjbjimn njbsaquabnas wjuoe ka ijra savara.

Djr axhipoa, mb tca nhsa jd sm`bmnhbt mbsthkmomty mb ^huem

Hrhkmh jr h ^huem-Mrhb bunoahr axnchbà, jmo prmnas njuoe

ejukoa7 `hsjomba prmnas njuoe mbnrahsa ky ijra tchb 06

parnabt, heemb` $;.01 ht tca puip7 @EV njuoe pouiiat

ky hs iunc hs 3 parnabt mb tca rst yahr, jr $8.; trmoomjb,

sabemb` tca bhtmjb mbtj h savara ranassmjb7 mbhtmjb njuoe

sgyrjngat tj hoijst 1 parnabt7 hbe ubaipojyiabt njuoe

mbnrahsa ky hoijst 5 parnabt, trhbsohtmb` mbtj ijra tchb

va imoomjb ijra pajpoa jut jd wjrg. Jd njursa, avab tca

ijst sjpcmstmnhtae ijeaos hra moo-aqumppae tj praemnt cjw

tca wjroe wjuoe rahnt tj h bunoahr axnchbà. Hbe, md sunc

h cjrrmkoa trhàey eme jnnur, tca cuihb hbe strhta`mn njsts

wjuoe ka dhr `rahtar tchb tca anjbjimn miphnts avhouhtae

cara.

nchbàs jb tca Q.^. anjbjiy mb taris jd h rhbà jd

ihnrjanjbjimn mbemnhtjrs, mbnouemb`< `hsjomba prmnas, @rjss

Ejiastmn Vrjeunt (@EV), mbhtmjb, hbe ubaipojyiabt.1

Jur hbhoysms mbemnhtas tcht tca axpanthtmjb jd mbsthkmomty hbe

njbmnt tcht h bunoahr Mrhb njuoe àbarhta mb òjkho abar`y

ihrgats njuoe rju`coy mbnrahsa tca prmna jd jmo ky katwaab

86 hbe ;1 parnabt, wcmnc, `mvab nurrabt mbtarbhtmjbho jmo

prmnas, wjuoe rasuot mb prmnas $88 tj $;0 cm`car par khrrao.

Hs mbsthkmomty hbe tabsmjbs raihmb cm`c, sj wmoo prmnas, avab

rmsmb`, eurmb` tca baxt savarho yahrs, rahncmb` oavaos jd hsiunc hs >6 tj 16 parnabt, jr $>6 tj $11 par khrrao, cm`car.

Pmtcmb tcraa yahrs, Q.^. `hsjomba prmnas njuoe mbnrahsa

ky jvar >6 parnabt, wcmnc aquhtas tj rju`coy phymb` hb

heemtmjbho $8.56 par `hoojb ht tca puip. Ht tcht oavao

jd mbnrahsa, kjtc mbhtmjb hbe ubaipojyiabt wjuoe ka

prjlantae tj rmsa ky 8 parnabt, wcmnc aquhtas tj h ojss jd

ijra tchb jba imoomjb ljks. Iahbwcmoa, @EV njuoe erjp ky

ijra tchb 8 parnabt, jr hoijst $;;6 kmoomjb.4

-;.6%

-8.1%

-8.6%

-6.1%

6.6%

6.1%

8.6%

XuhrtaroyNchbà

[aho @EV @rjwtc Qbaipojyiabt Mbdohtmjb

Ihnrjanjbjimn Addants jd Bunoahr Mrhb.06% =.>6% -;;.;6% 866.66% 54.46% 866.66%

@hsjomba Vrmna =.86% 80.64% ;6.51% >1.56% 81.30% 56.61% ;.48% 4.14% -81.41% 06.18% >;.=6% 06.18%

@EV -6.05% -8.>>% -6.>4% -6.4;% -8.80% -;.=4% -6.88% -6.;0% -3.84% -1.0>% -8.=5% -5.18%

Qbaipojyiabt 6.;1% 6.51% 6.54% 6.3>% 6.5=% 8.;1% 6.65% 6.88% >.16% ;.55% 6.3;% 8.=8%

Mbhtmjb 6.>3% 6.4=% 6.8>% 6.;4% 6.1=% 8.13% 6.61% 6.8>% 5.48% >.8=% 8.6;% ;.53%


13/48


V[JKHKMOMU] JD JNNQ[[ABNA^NABH[MJ % V[MNA NCHB@A

D[JI KHÂOMBA

Khsaomba yahrs Bj [aoahsa [asarvas [aoahsae

H. Mrhb-^huem BunoahrAxnchbà

6% 1% 81% 866.6% 866.6%

K. Mrhb-Msrhao BunoahrAxnchbà

6% ;6% ;6% 866.6% 54.4%

N. ^trmga jb MrhbmhbBunoahr Dhnmomtmas

>1% 81% 86%

E. Ejiastmn Mbsthkmomty mb^huem Hrhkmh

;6% ;1% 56% 14.3% ;;.1%

A. ^huem DhnmomtmasEastrjyae

81% ;1% >1% =.>% >.0%

D. ^hbntmjbs Ohpsa 86% ;6% >1% -;;.;% -;;.;%


14/48



15/48


ûnc jmo-suppoy emsruptmjbshbe tcamr httabehbt prmna

spmgachva jnnurrae parmjemnhooy eurmb` tca ohst chod-

nabtury. Imomthry njbmnt kojngae vmtho jmo ncjgapjmbts eurmb`

tca ûaz Nrmsms (8=148=10), njbtrmkutmb` emrantoy tj h

prmna luip jd = parnabt eurmb` tca njbmnt. Jtcar njbmnts

chva ehihàe ihljr jmoaoes hbe dhnmomtmas, jr nut tcai jdd

drji wjroe ihrgats, hs eurmb` tca Mrhbmhb àbarho strmgahbe [avjoutmjb (8=038=0=), Mrhqs mbvhsmjb jd Mrhbs jmo-

prjeunmb` ra`mjbs (8=36), Mrhqs mbvhsmjb jd Guwhmt (8==6),

hbe tca jpabmb` pchsa jd tca Mrhq Phr (;66>).

Iatcjejoj`y

Uca snabhrmjs prasabtae kaojw hra tca rasuot jd njbsabsus

hijb` jur Uhsg Djrna jb pohusmkoa tcrahts tj jmo suppomas mb

tca Varsmhb @uod. Pa ncjsa tcasa snabhrmjs kanhusa tcay

hra pohusmkoa àjpjomtmnho rahntmjbs tj h bunoahr Mrhb tcht

njuoe sphrg h rhbà jd pjssmkoa abar`y emsruptmjbs.

Uj hnnjubt djr tca eurhtmjb hbe eybhimsi jd ahnc

snabhrmjhs sjia jmo prjeuntmjb ms rastjrae jr kyphss

axpjrt rjutas hra hntmvhtae jvar tmiatca Uhsg Djrna

wjrgae wmtc jmo hbhoysts hbe ra`mjbho axparts tj axprass tca

ih`bmtuea jd ahnc emsruptmjb mb taris jd tca hvarhà ehmoy

jmo-suppoy ojss eurmb` tca parmje jd h yahr. Ucms hpprjhnc

hoojwae dhntjrmb` mb tca pjtabtmho miphnt jd patrjoaui stjrae

mb òjkho pukomn stjngs, sunc hs tca Q.^. ^trhta`mn Vatrjoaui

[asarva,0wcmnc njuoe ka raoahsae mb hb aiaràbny ky

njjrembhtae hntmjb jd tca Mbtarbhtmjbho Abar`y Hàbny

(MAH).3Djr ahnc snabhrmj, tca Uhsg Djrna jddars h rhbà jd

pjssmkoa emsruptmjb hijubtshbe tcamr miphntskhsae jb

wcatcar tcasa rasarvas hra raoahsae jr bjt.

Mt ms mipjrthbt tj bjta tcht ht tca ka`mbbmb` jd hby

emsruptmjb, tca ihrgat wjuoe bjt gbjw tca ih`bmtuea hbe

eurhtmjb jd tca emsruptmjb hbe sj mts miiaemhta rahntmjb

im`ct bjt raant tca trua bhtura jd tca avabttca ihrgat

njuoe amtcar spmga cm`car tchb tca dhnts wjuoe iarmt jr bjt

rahnt hs strjbòy hs tca emsruptmjb wjuoe su`àst. Cjwavar,

Md Mrhb hncmavas bunoahr wahpjbs nhphkmomty, wmeasprahe

mbsthkmomty njuoe h``rhvhta ubnarthmbty hkjut tca sanurmty

jd abar`y prjeuntmjb hbe trhbspjrt, rhmsmb` jmo prmnas djr

tca ojb` tari hbe ba`htmvaoy miphntmb` tca Q.^. anjbjiy.

Mt wjuoe hosj mbnrahsa tca omgaomcjje jd emsruptmjbs tj tca

jw jd jmo, chvmb` h ihtarmho ba`htmva miphnt jb tca Q.^.

anjbjiy.

Jmo Emsruptmjbs hbe tca Imeeoa Ahst

Imeeoa Ahst jmo ms nrmtmnho tj tca òjkho anjbjiy. Axpjrts

drji tca ra`mjbijra tchb chod jd wcmnc njia drji ^huem

Hrhkmhduooo bahroy ;6 parnabt jd òjkho ehmoy jmo eaihbe,

hbe >1 parnabt jd hoo sahkjrba-trheae jmo phssas tcrju`c

tca ^trhmt jd Cjriuz. Uca Varsmhb @uod^huem Hrhkmh mb

phrtmnuohrms hosj cjia tj bahroy hoo tca wjroes sphra

prjeuntmjb nhphnmty. Md jmo prjeuntmjb jr axpjrts drji tca

ra`mjb hra mbtarruptae, tca rast jd tca wjroe wjuoe chva hemdnuot tmia rapohnmb` tcjsa suppomas, ermvmb` prmnas up.

^nabhrmjs & Njbsaquabnas


16/48


prjnass njuoe ka trm`àrae, jr ht oahst h``rhvhtae, ky tca

ubrast horahey swaapmb` tcrju`c tca ra`mjb, mbeapabeabt

jd Mrhbs pursumt jd bunoahr wahpjbs. Kut hb aikjoeabae

bunoahr Mrhb njuoe mbstm`hta jr axhnarkhta hb uprmsmb` mb

^huem Hrhkmhs ^cmmta-ihljrmty Ahstarb Vrjvmbna, tca barva

nabtar jd ^huem jmo axpjrts. Ucasa eavaojpiabts wjuoe

nrahta sm`bmnhbt hbe ojb`-ohstmb` axpjrt emsruptmjbs drjitca gmbèji.

Uca ijbhrncy chs kaab hkoa tj sthva jdd tca ihssmva

eaijbstrhtmjbs tcht chva swapt tcrju`c tca rast jd tca

ra`mjb tcrju`c nj-jpthtmjb, prmihrmoy mb tca djri jd tabs

jd kmoomjbs jd ejoohrs mb cjusmb`, aipojyiabt, hbe jtcar

suksmemas. Bjbatcaoass, [myhec raihmbs whry jd tca ohrà

buikar jd emshddantae ^huem yjutc hbe tca ruikomb`s jd

santhrmhb emsnjbtabt mb tca Ahstarb Vrjvmbna, aspanmhooy wmtc

^cmmta ubrast mb bam`ckjrmb` Khcrhmb.88

Ucasa eavaojpiabts njuoe jnnur mbeapabeabtoy jd h

bunoahr Mrhb. [a`hreoass, jbna Mrhb `hmbs h bunoahr

eatarrabt, mts oahears hra omgaoy tj daao aikjoeabae tj axphbe

tcamr pjwar hbe mbuabna hnrjss tca ra`mjb. Iaijrmas jd

tca `raht Varsmhb aipmras tcht sphbbae drji Aurjpa tj

Hsmh hbe ohstae nabturmas stmoo rasjbhta mb Mrhb. Hbe tca

tcajnrhtmn meajoj`y jd vaohyht-a dhqmctcht duaoae tca 8=0=

[avjoutmjb hbe krju`ct Hyhtjoohc [ucjoohc Gcjiambm tj

pjwar ms bjt njbsnrmkae ky bhtmjbho kjubehrmas7 mts hikmtmjb

axtabes tj oahemb` tca Iusomi wjroe. Ucms miparmho bjstho`mh

hbe raom`mjus axphbsmjbmsi, njikmbae wmtc Uacrhbs

sthtaiabts hkjut aomimbhtmb` tca sthta jd Msrhao, chs oaeMrhb tj njbsmstabtoy sukvart bam`ckjrmb` `jvarbiabts,

spjbsjr tarrjrmst `rjups, hbe axhnarkhta santhrmhb tabsmjbs

tcrju`cjut tca ra`mjb. Djr axhipoa, Uacrhb chs suppjrtae

hbe trhmbae imomtmhs hbe raom`mjus ijvaiabts mb Mrhq hbe

Oakhbjb, whs omgaoy mbvjovae mb h 8=38 ^cmmta njup httaipt

h`hmbst tca ûbbm ijbhrncy mb Khcrhmb, hbe lust ranabtoy

khngae h tarrjrmst htthng tcht gmooae va Msrhaom tjurmsts mb

Kuo`hrmh.8;

wa ej bjt saag tj hnnjubt djr sunc ihrgat kachvmjr mb jur

stuey, djnusmb` mbstahe jb hbbuho prmnas.

Baxt, Uhsg Djrna iaikars hssassae tca omgaomcjje jd ahnc

snabhrmj jnnurrmb` mb tca nurrabt sthtus quj, wmtcmb jba

yahr jd Mrhb hnqumrmb` bunoahr wahpjbs nhphkmomty, hbe mb

tca djoojwmb` twj yahrs. Pa hvarhàe tca rasuots tj hrrmva hthb mbdjriae astmihta jd tca prjkhkmomtmas tcht hby jd tca va

snabhrmjs wjuoe jnnur.

Dmbhooy, wa usae hb asthkomscae ihnrjanjbjimn ijeao tj

nhonuohta tca miphnt ahnc snabhrmj njuoe chva, wara mt tj

jnnur, jb tca Q.^. anjbjiy mb tca djri jd `hsjomba prmnas,

@EV, ubaipojyiabt, hbe mbhtmjb.=Djr narthmb snabhrmjs,

tca njbsaquabnas jd tcamr jnnurrabna wjuoe ka sj trh`mn

mb cuihbmthrmhb taris hbe sj ubpranaeabtae mb anjbjimn

emsojnhtmjb tcht wa ubeartjjg jboy tca smipoast hbhoysms,

smbna avab tca ijst sjpcmstmnhtae ijeaos nhbbjt praemnt

cjw tca wjroe wjuoe rahnt tj sunc eavhsthtmjb.

^nabhrmjs

Kaojw, wa njbsmear va snabhrmjs tcht im`ct ubdjoe mb tca

Imeeoa Ahst, nhusmb` emsruptmjbs tj tca suppoy jd jmo. Pa

axhimba tca eybhimns tcht im`ct ermva tca jnnurrabnas

jd tcasa snabhrmjs hbe mih`mba cjw tcay wjuoe pohy jut.

Pa hosj avhouhta tca prjkhkmomty jd tcamr thgmb` pohna, tca

ih`bmtuea hbe eurhtmjb jd tca suppoy emsruptmjbs tcay

wjuoe nhusa, hbe tca anjbjimn miphnt tca snabhrmjs wjuoe

chva md tcay eme jnnur. H`hmb, wa ranj`bmza tcht tcara hra

ihby ubgbjwbs hbe iunc bj jba nhb djrasaa. ^tmoo, wa

kaomava tcasa snabhrmjs tj ka nraemkoa hbe mooustrhtmva.

^nabhrmj #8< Ejiastmn Mbsthkmomty mb huem Hrhkmh

^huem Hrhkmh, h nojsa Q.^. hooy, njuoe dhna h oahearscmp

trhbsmtmjb mb tca njimb` yahrs hs tca h`mb` àbarhtmjb jd

tjp jdnmhos, wcj hra sjbs jd tca njubtrys djubear, `mvas

why tj h baw àbarhtmjb jd sunnassjrs.86Ucms ubnarthmb


17/48


Ejiastmn Mbsthkmomty mb ^huem Hrhkmh

Hb uprmsmb` tcara njuoe emsrupt prjeuntmjb, ermvmb` upprmnas hbe caopmb` Mrhb ihga up ravabua ojst drji axpjrts

ermvab ojwar ky kjtc eanombmb` prjeuntmjb hbe shbntmjbs.

Hb heeae mbnabtmva djr Uacrhb ms tcht mt njuoe httaipt tcms

wmtcjut tcrahtabmb` tca ^trhmt jd Cjriuz, h ijva tcht wjuoe

scut Mrhbs jwb jmo axpjrts jut jd tca ihrgat hbe cam`ctab

emrant njbdrjbthtmjb wmtc tca Qbmtae ^thtas.

Pcatcar pahnaduo jr bjt, pjomtmnho upcahvho mb jmo-prjeunmb`

njubtrmas jdtab emsrupts tca abar`y santjr djr h sm`bmnhbt

eurhtmjb, hs avmeabnae ky rju`c trhbsmtmjb parmjes mb

Mrhb (8=038=36), [ussmh (8==6s), Mrhq (;666s), hbe

Omkyh (;688;68;). Mb ahnc nhsa, jmo axpjrts erjppae

erhihtmnhooy djr ijbtcs jr yahrs.85^usthmbae santhrmhb

ubrast mb tca Ahstarb Vrjvmbna njuoe pcysmnhooy emsrupt jmo

mbdrhstruntura. @mvab [myhecs sabsa jd tca vuobarhkmomty jd

mts jmo mbdrhstruntura tj Mrhbmhb iaeeomb`, mt njuoe prjipt h

`jvarbiabt nrhngejwb tcht wjuoe njipjube mbsthkmomty.81

Njbsaquabnas

Pa lue`a tca nurrabt prjkhkmomty jd sunc ^huem mbsthkmomty tj

ka ;6 parnabt. Mb tca avabt jd h bunoahr-nhphkoa Mrhb, wa

astmihta tca prjkhkmomty tj rmsa tj ;1 parnabt wmtcmb jba yahrhbe tj 56parnabt mb tca djoojwmb` twj yahrs.

6%

1%

86%

81%

;6%

;1%

>6%

>1%

56%

51%

Khsaomba 8 ]ahr 8-> ]ahrs


18/48


Ihnrjanjbjimn Addants jd Ejiastmn Mbsthkmomty mb

^huem Hrhkmh< [asarva [aoahsa

Addants jd Ejiastmn Mbsthkmomty mb ^huem Hrhkmh jb Q.^.

Jmo hbe @hsjomba Vrmnas

Para tcms snabhrmj tj jnnur, jur ijeao su`àsts tca prmna

jd jmo wjuoe mbnrahsa ky ;1 tj 11 parnabt hkjva tca nurrabt

khsaomba, wcmnc njuoe iahb jmo prmnas $;1 tj $46 cm`car par

khrrao. Hs h rasuot, raho @EV njuoe erjp ky katwaab ; tj 1

parnabt mb tca rst quhrtar tcht suppomas hra emsruptae hbe

8 tj > parnabt mb tca rst yahr, kut tcab `rheuhooy miprjva.

@hsjomba prmnas njuoe njst hkjut 46 nabts tj $8.16 par

`hoojb ijra ht tca puip. Mbhtmjb njuoe surà ky jvar jba

parnabt hbe katwaab 016,666, hbe 8.= imoomjb ijra pajpoa

njuoe ojsa tcamr ljks.

Ejiastmn Mbsthkmomty mb ^huem Hrhkmh< Jmo Emsruptmjb

-=

-3

-0

-4

-1

-5

->

-;

-8

6

Ihxmiui Hbbuhomzae

Hbbuhomzae w/

^V[

Imoomjbkhrraospar

ehy

Ihnrjanjbjimn Addants jd Ejiastmn Mbsthkmomty mb

^huem Hrhkmh< Bj [asarva [aoahsa

-8.1%

-8.6%

-6.1%

6.6%

6.1%

8.6%

XuhrtaroyNchbà


-4%

-1%

-5%

->%

-;%

-8%

6%

8%

;%

>%

5%

XuhrtaroyNchbà


6%

86%

;6%

>6%

56%

16%

46%

[asarva [aoahsa Bj [asarva [aoahsa

Jba-]ahrVrmnaNchbà

@hsjomba Jmo


19/48


^huem Dhnmomtmas Eastrjyae< Vrjkhkmomty jd Jnnurrabna

Uca ihxmiui axpjrt emsruptmjb wjuoe ka 1.0 ikpe,

aqumvhoabt tj tca njubtrys nurrabt @uod axpjrts. Pa hssuia

^huem Hrhkmh wjuoe ra-rjuta tcasa suppomas tcrju`c mts [ae

âh kyphssas hdtar jba ijbtc, rasuotmb` mb hb hbbuhomzae

emsruptmjb jd 6.1 ikpe. Md wa hosj hssuia h raoahsa rhta jd

òjkho patrjoaui rasarvas jd 5.6 ikpe mb tca rst ijbtc

hdtar hb mbnmeabt, tca hbbuhomzae emsruptmjb dhoos tj 6.;

ikpe. Pa astmihta tca eurhtmjb jd hby emsruptmjb tj ^huem

@uod dhnmomtmas tj ka smx ijbtcs, hssuimb` h prjlantae cm`c

hijubt jd pcysmnho eastruntmjb tj tca dhnmomtmas hbe tca

axtabsmva ranjbstruntmjb baaeae tj krmb` tcai khng tj

bjriho oavaos. [a`hreoass jd tca phrtmnuohr eurhtmjb, wa

hssuia [myhec wjuoe ka hkoa tj rasuia pra-mbnmeabt axpjrt

oavaos usmb` mts kyphssas hdtar jba ijbtc.

^nabhrmj #;< ^huem Dhnmomtmas Eastrjyae

^huem Hrhkmhs prmihry jmo dhnmomtmas hra `rjupae nojsaoy

tjàtcar mb tca Ahstarb Vrjvmbna. Hoo jd tca gmbèjis

Cjriuz-kjube axpjrtstcraa-quhrtars jd tca ^huem tjtho

hra prjnassae cara, ihgmb` tcai hb httrhntmva thràt djr

hbyjba saagmb` tj chri [myhec. Ihljr ehihà tj, hbetcaradjra emsruptmjbs ht, tcasa dhnmomtmas wjuoe àbarhta

sm`bmnhbt, iaemui-tari emsruptmjbs tj ra`mjbho jmo axpjrts.

H bunoahr Mrhb wjuoe upsat tca nurrabt khohbna wmtc ^huem

Hrhkmh hbe nhst ejukt jb Q.^. sanurmty ùhrhbtaas tj @uod

Hrhk njubtrmas. Mrhb njuoe ka aikjoeabae tj shkjthà jr

htthng, wcatcar emrantoy jr vmh prjxy, ^huem jmo dhnmomtmas mb

jrear tj eanrahsa jmo suppoy hbe ermva up prmnas jb Mrhbmhb

patrjoaui axpjrts.

Mrhb njuoe httaipt tj jvarwcaoi ^huem Hrhkmhs hevhbnae

Q.^.-ihea khoomstmn imssmoa-eadabsa systais wmtc mts ohràhrsabho jd scjrt-rhbà khoomstmn imssmoas. Mt njuoe hosj usa

mts axtabsmva nrumsa imssmoa hbe htthng-nrhdt nhphkmomtmas tj

hsshuot ^huem Hrhkmhs ihssmva jddscjra ojhemb` dhnmomtmas

mb tca @uod.84Uarrjrmst `rjups jr jppjbabts jd tca ^huem

ra`mia, Mrhb-khngae jr jtcarwmsa, njuoe hosj httaipt tj

shkjthà tca dhnmomtmas usmb` vacmnoa-kjrba miprjvmsae

axpojsmva eavmnas, jtcar axpojsmvas, mbsmear htthngs, jr ijra

njvart djris jd shkjthà.

Njbsaquabnas

Uca prjkhkmomty jd sunc hb htthng wjuoe ka cm`car

jbna Mrhb jkthmbae h bunoahr uikraooh h`hmbst ^huem jr

Q.^. rathomhtmjbhotcju`c tca prjkhkmomty wjuoe stmoo ka

sm`bmnhbt prmjr tj hb Mrhbmhb bunoahr nhphkmomty. Pa lueà

tca prjkhkmomty jd sunc hb avabt tj ka hpprjxmihtaoy 81

parnabt nurrabtoy, rmsmb` tj ;1 parnabt mb tca rst yahr hdtar

Mrhb hnqumras h bunoahr nhphkmomty, hbe tj >1 parnabt mb tca

djoojwmb` twj yahrs.

6%

1%

86%

81%

;6%

;1%

>6%

>1%

56%



20/48


^huem Dhnmomtmas Eastrjyae< Jmo Emsruptmjb

Kanhusa jd tca hkmomty tj ra-rjuta iunc jd ^huem prjeuntmjb

tcrju`c axmstmb` pmpaombas, jur ijeao su`àsts tca prmna jd

jmo wjuoe mbnrahsa ky jboy katwaab 5 hbe 86 parnabt hkjva

tca nurrabt khsaomba mb tcms snabhrmj, wcmnc njuoe iahb jmo

prmnas $5 tj $86 cm`car par khrrao. Hs h rasuot, raho @EV

njuoe erjp ky 6.; tj 6.1 parnabt mb tca rst quhrtar tcht

suppomas hra emsruptae hbe 6.8 tj 6.> parnabt mb tca rst

yahr, kut tcab `rheuhooy miprjva. @hsjomba prmnas njuoe `j

up ky > tj 0 parnabt, trhbsohtmb` tj phymb` 86 tj >6 nabts

par `hoojb ijra ht tca puip. Mbhtmjb njuoe tmng up hkjut

twj-tabtcs jd 8 parnabt, hbe ijra tchb 866,666 pajpoa

njuoe ojsa tcamr ljks.

-4

-1

-5

->

-;

-8

6

Ihxmiui Hbbuhomzae

Hbbuhomzae w/

^V[

Imoomjbkhrraosparehy

Addants jd ^huem Dhnmomty Eastruntmjb jb Q.^. Jmo hbe

@hsjomba Vrmnas

Uca Vrmna jd Mbhntmjb< Hbhoysms

6%

8%

;%

>%

5%

1%

4%

0%

3%

=%

86%


Jba-]ahrVrmnaNchbà

@hsjomba Jmo

-;.1%

-;.6%

-8.1%

-8.6%

-6.1%

6.6%

6.1%

8.6%

8.1%

;.6%

XuhrtaroyNchbà


Ihnrjanjbjimn Addants jd ^huem Dhnmomty Eastruntmjb1 parnabt mb tca

djoojwmb` twj yahrs.

^hbntmjbs Ohpsa< Vrjkhkmomty jd Jnnurrabna

Pa astmihta tcht tcms snabhrmj njuoe hntuhooy hee 8.; ikpe

tj wjroe jmo suppomas. Ucms raants tca emddarabna katwaab

Mrhbs nurrabt 8.6 ikpe axpjrt oavao hbe mts pra-shbntmjbs

oavao jd ;.; ikpe, ht wcmnc mt axpjrtae djr savarho yahrs

prmjr. @mvab rjkust òjkho eaihbe, pjjr njipomhbna wmtc

bjb-A.Q. shbntmjbs, hbe strjb` mbnabtmva ky Uacrhb tj

ihxmimza mts jmo ravabua, wa hssuia Mrhb wjuoe rhip

khng up tj mts ;.; ikpe axpjrt oavao wmtcmb twj ijbtcs jd

shbntmjbs ohpsmb`. Para tcms snabhrmj tj jnnur, jur ijeao

su`àsts tca prmna jd jmo wjuoe hntuhooy dhoo ky hkjut ;6parnabt drji tca nurrabt khsaomba. Hotcju`c tcms njuoe chva

pjsmtmva anjbjimn addants, kanhusa wa njbsmear mt omgaoy tcht

^huem Hrhkmh im`ct snhoa khng mts jwb prjeuntmjb mb tca

avabt jd tcms snabhrmj, wa eme bjt nhonuohta mts anjbjimn

miphnt.

6%

1%

86%

81%

;6%

;1%

>6%

>1%

56%


-;1%

-;6%

-81%

-86%

-1%

6%

@hsjomba Jmo

Jba-]ahrVrmnaNchbà


23/48


Ht kast, tcms wjuoe nrahta h bunoahr-hriae sthbejdd katwaab

tca twj ijst pjwarduo hbe iutuhooy hbth`jbmstmn njubtrmas

mb tca Varsmhb @uod. Ht wjrst, mt njuoe eavjova mbtj htjimn

whrdhra. Mrhbs hbe ^huem Hrhkmhs sihoo hrsabhos, ohng jd

eurhkoa njiiubmnhtmjb nchbbaos, pjjr nmvmomhb jvarsm`ct

jd njiihbe-hbe-njbtrjo systais, arrhtmn mbtaoomàbna,

prjxmimty tj ahnc jtcar, raom`mjus hrejr, hbe santhrmhbemvmea wjuoe hoo emstmbùmsc tcms snabhrmj drji tca Njoe Phr

khohbna katwaab tca Qbmtae ^thtas hbe tca ^jvmat Qbmjb.

Hby sunc njbmnt wjuoe omgaoy ka axtraiaoy eavhsthtmb`.

Ahnc njubtry wjuoe chva bhturho mbnabtmvas tj nrmppoa mts

jppjbabts jmo dhnmomtmas mb hby bunoahr njbmnt. Nruea-

jmo axpjrts hra kjtc ra`mias pjomtmnho hbe anjbjimn

omdakojje, hbe tcus tca khsms djr tcamr imomthry pjwar. Hosj,

ahnc njubtrys jmo mbdrhstruntura hbe axpjrt tarimbhos hra

njbnabtrhtae hojb` tca @uod, wmtcmb rhbà jd tca jtcars

bunoahr-wahpjbs eaomvary vacmnoas. Ijrajvar, h bunoahr whr

mb tcms ra`mjb wjuoe omgaoy bjt jboy eastrjy h ohrà pjrtmjb

jd tca @uods jmo mbdrhstruntura kut hosj rabear tca abtmra

@uod ubhvhmohkoa tj scmppmb` djr sjia parmje jd tmia. Ucms

njuoe njia emrantoy tcrju`c rhemjhntmva dhoojut, htijspcarmn

pjooutmjb, hbe abvmrjbiabtho eastruntmjb, jr mbemrantoy

tcrju`c prjcmkmtmvaoy cm`c mbsurhbna rhtas hbe jtcar rmsg

dhntjrs djr thbgars trhbsmtmb` tca ra`mjb.;5Ucaradjra, avab md

h bunoahr axnchbà eme bjt sprahe mbtj h ra`mjb-wmea whr,

tca trhbsmt jd Cjriuz-kjube jmo axpjrts wjuoe ka chotae ky

sunc h njbmnt.

Cjwavar, wcmoa hby njhstho mbchkmtae hrahs hbe dhnmo mtmasbjt eastrjyae mb sunc hb axnchbà njuoe ka njbthimbhtae

wmtc dhoojut, gmoomb` sjia jd tca pjpuohtmjb drji rhemhtmjb

smngbass mb tca scjrt tari, hbe mbnrahsmb` ohta rhemhtmjb

ehihà mb tca ojb` tari, jnahb trhvao tcrju`c tca @uod

njuoe kanjia pjssmkoa wmtcmb h ihttar jd ijbtcs. Dhoojut

hsc wjuoe sattoa jb tca whtar hbe ka nhrrmae jut tj sah,

wcara mt njuoe emsparsa ijra qumngoy tchb jb ohbe. Ucjsa

njubtrmas hbe dhnmomtmas bjt emrantoy ehihàe ky tca bunoahr

njbmnt njuoe, eapabemb` jb pravhmomb` wmbe njbemtmjbs hbe

njipatmtmjb djr prmihny ms rambdjrnae ky atcbmn emddarabnasVhgmsthb

wjuoe kabat ky ranamvmb` iunc-baaeae nhsc hbe njuoe

eaihbe mb raturb euho-gay hutcjrmty jvar imssmoa ohubncas,

kjtc tj njbtrjo ^huem pjomny hbe tj kjostar mts jwb sanjbe-

strmga nhphkmomty h`hmbst Mbemh.


24/48


Mrhb-^huem Bunoahr Axnchbà< Jmo Emsruptmjb

Md wa hosj hssuia h raoahsa rhta jd òjkho patrjoaui

rasarvas jd 0.6, 5.6, hbe 8.6 ikpe mb tca rst, sanjbe,

hbe tcmre quhrtars hdtar hb axnchbà, raspantmvaoy, tca

hbbuhomzae emsruptmjb dhoos tj =.6 ikpe. (Pa nhutmjb h`hmbst

tca pa``mb` jd tca pranmsa raoahsa rhta jd tca mbtarbhtmjbho

strhta`mn rasarvas. ûnc h oavao jd raoahsa wjuoe ka

ubpranaeabtae, hbe axparts schrpoy emddar hkjut wcht oavao

ms prhntmnho.) Pa lueà tca tjtho eurhtmjb jd tcms emsruptmjb tj

ka jba yahrojbàr tchb hby pravmjus ihljr emsruptmjb mb

cmstjryhs h rasuot jd tca nhthstrjpcmn bhtura hbe snjpa jd

tca ehihà nhusae ky sunc h njbmnt.

Jd njursa, nruea jmo ms bjt tca jboy abar`y sjurna trhbsmtmb`

tca ^trhmt jd Cjriuz. [abae patrjoaui prjeunts hbeomquaae bhturho `hs (OB@) hosj trhvao tcasa whtars. Hby

snabhrmj, sunc hs tcms jba, wcmnc nojsas tca strhmt tj thbgar

trhdn wjuoe narthmboy miphnt tca jw jd tcasa jtcar duaos.

Cjwavar, hssassmb` tcasa emsruptmjbs omas jutsmea tca snjpa

jd tcms stuey.

Para tcms snabhrmj tj hntuhooy jnnur, tca rasuotmb`

cuihbmthrmhb njsts hbe pcysmnho eavhsthtmjb wjuoe ka

ubmih`mbhkoa. Uca anjbjimn njsts phoa mb njiphrmsjb

hbe hppahr hoijst mbnjbsaquabtmho. Bavartcaoass, tcay

cjw tca dhoojut ms emsparsae, rasuia jmo axpjrts tcrju`c tca

@uod wmtcmb smx ijbtcs.;1

Njbsaquabnas

@mvab tcht bamtcar njubtry nurrabtoy pjssassas bunoahr

wahpjbs, tca pjtabtmho djr sunc h bunoahr axnchbà bjw mszarj. Cjwavar, wa lueà tca prjkhkmomty jd sunc hb avabt mb

raspjbsa tj h bunoahr-nhphkoa Mrhb tj ka 1 parnabt wmtcmb

tca rst yahr, trmpomb` tj 81 parnabt mb tca djoojwmb` twj

yahrsstmoo ojw, kut bjt mbsm`bmnhbt.

Mrhb-^huem Bunoahr Axnchbà ]ahrs

-83

-84

-85

-8;

-86

-3

-4

-5

-;

6

Ihxmiui Hbbuhomzae

Hbbuhomzae w/

^V[

Imoomjbkhrraospareh

y


25/48


Ihnrjanjbjimn Addants jd Mrhb-^huem Bunoahr

Axnchbà< Bj [asarva [aoahsa

Ihnrjanjbjimn Addants jd Mrhb-^huem Bunoahr

Axnchbà< [asarva [aoahsa

wjuoe ka suksthbtmho. Hssassmb` tca rasuotmb` anjbjimn

emsojnhtmjbs ms phrtmnuohroy emdnuot, kanhusa tca wjroe

chs bavar axparmabnae hb jmo-suppoy emsruptmjb jd tcms

ih`bmtuea, hbe nurrabt ijeaomb` tjjos hra mbheaquhta.

Hotcju`c nurrabt eaihbe djr jmo ms raohtmvaoy mbeapabeabt

jd prmna, snhrnmty jd jmo wjuoe djrna abar`y njbsuiars

wcatcar prmvhta mbemvmeuhos, abtarprmsas, jr `jvarbiabtstjnut khng tcamr usa jd jmo-khsae prjeunts, hbe tca ihrgat

wjuoe ka mbnabtmvmzae tj eavaojp ubear-utmomzae jr baw

hotarbhtmva-abar`y sjurnas, hs bamtcar òjkho sphra nhphnmty

bjr strhta`mn rasarvas wjuoe sudna tj imtm`hta tca rasuotmb`

suppoy ojss. @mvab tmia, tcaradjra, suppoy hbe eaihbe djr

jmo wjuoe rahnc aqumomkrmui.

Djr tcasa rahsjbs, wa chva nhppae tca prmna spmga tcht

wjuoe rasuot drji h bunoahr axnchbà katwaab Mrhb hbe

^huem Hrhkmh ht 866 parnabt, addantmvaoy ejukomb` nurrabt

prmnas mb tca miiaemhta hdtarihtc, iahbmb` hs iunc $886

ijra par khrrao jd jmo ht nurrabt mbtarbhtmjbho prmnas. Mb tca

miiaemhta hdtarihtc jd tcms snabhrmj, jur ijeao su`àsts

raho @EV wjuoe erjp ky rju`coy 86 tj 85 parnabt, kut

tcab miprjva `rheuhooy, wmtc tca anjbjiy sojwmb` ky 4

tj 3 parnabt mb tca rst yahr. Hdtar tcht, tca @EV miphnt

njuoe hntuhooy kanjia pjsmtmvahs tca miiabsa hijubt

jd axnass prjeuntmva nhphnmty rahnnaoarhtas tca anjbjiy

hbe ihgas up djr sjia jd tca mbmtmho ojss mb `rjwtckadjra

rahncmb` aqumomkrmui. @hsjomba prmnas njuoe `j up ky hs

iunc hs 06 parnabt, trhbsohtmb` tj phymb` hb heemtmjbho

$;.01 par `hoojb ht tca puip. Uca mbhtmjb rhta im`ct hosj

spmga ky 0 tj 88 parnabt mb tca rst quhrtar jd tcms snabhrmj,

kut tcab qumngoy eanomba hbe hntuhooy turb ejwbwhre

hdtar tca rst yahr, kanhusa tca anjbjimn eaprassmjb hosj

eaprassas krjhear mbhtmjb. Qbaipojyiabt wjuoe `j up

ky katwaab ; hbe 5 parnabt jvar tca rst yahr, iahbmb` hb

heemtmjbho tcraa tj va imoomjb pajpoa njuoe ojsa tcamr ljks,

wmtc tca addants ohstmb` djr ijra tchb tcraa yahrs hdtar tca

sthrt jd tca snabhrmj.

-81%

-86%

-1%

6%

1%

86%

81%

XuhrtaroyNchbà


-86%

-3%

-4%

-5%

-;%

6%

;%

5%

4%

3%

86%

XuhrtaroyNchbà



26/48


tcarijbunoahr whrcahes dhr kayjbe tca eastruntmva pjwar

jd hby Mrhbmhb ssmjb wahpjb. Qbear sunc nmrnuisthbnas,

Mrhbs vuobarhkmomty tj h kjot-drji-tca-koua Msrhaom bunoahr

strmga wjuoe hntuhooy mbnrahsa mts mbnabtmva tj ohubnc mts jwb

bunoahr htthng, oast mts hrsabho ka jkomtarhtae. Msrhaos sihoo

tarrmtjrmho smza raeunas tca survmvhkmomty jd mts sanjbe-strmga

nhphkmomty hbe, ijra mipjrthbtoy, tca survmvhkmomty jd tcanjubtry mtsaod, easpmta mts vhstoy ohràr hbe ijra hevhbnae

hrsabho. Ucus, Msrhaom oahears im`ct daao tca baae tj hnt

pravabthtmvaoy tj aomimbhta tca Mrhbmhb hrsabho kadjra mt nhb

ka usae h`hmbst tcai, lust hs Hiarmnhb imomthry pohbbars

njbtaipohtae thgmb` jut tca aeòmb` ^jvmat hrsabho ahroy mb

tca Njoe Phr, axnapt tcht hs h iunc sihooar njubtry Msrhao

chs dhr oass rjji djr ihbauvar.;4

Hb Msrhao-Mrhbmhb bunoahr njbmnt wjuoe ka cm`coy

eatrmiabtho tj ra`mjbho jmo axpjrts. Uca pcysmnho eastruntmjb

hbe rhemjhntmva dhoojut wjuoe rabear tca àj`rhpcmnhooy

njbbae sphnas jd tca Varsmhb @uod mbcjspmthkoa, ht oahst mb

tca miiaemhta hdtarihtc jd h strmga. Cjwavar, tcms emsruptmjb

wjuoe bjt ka hs parihbabt hs hb Mrhbmhb-^huem axnchbà.

[myhecs axpjrt dhnmomtmas wjuoe bjt chva tj ka rakumot,

bjr wjuoe mts sphra prjeuntmjb nhphnmty ka eastrjyae.

Heemtmjbhooy, hb Mrhbmhb bunoahr htthng jb Msrhao mtsaod wjuoe

bjt emsrupt tca jw jd jmo axpjrts, easpmta tca pjtabtmho

djr sunc h strmga tj hbbmcmohta tca abtmra njubtry. Dmbhooy,

tca pcysmnho miphnt jb jmo scmppmb` ohbas wjuoe omgaoy ka

sihooar, smbna tca baxus jd hb Mrhb-Msrhao bunoahr njbmnt

wjuoe ka jrmabtae hwhy drji tca cahrt jd tca @uod.

Njbsaquabnas

Pcmoa Msrhao njuoe ncjjsa tj usa mts bunoahr hrsabho tj

pravabt Uacrhb drji htthmbmb` bunoahr wahpjbs nhphkmomty,

wa kaomava tca prjkhkmomty jd sunc hb Msrhaom bunoahr htthng tj

ka axnaptmjbhooy ojw ht prasabt. Cjwavar, `mvab tca nchbna

djr imsnhonuohtmjb hbe mbnabtmvas jb kjtc smeas djr rst-

strmgas, wa lueà tca prjkhkmomty jd sunc hb Mrhbmhb-Msrhaom

bunoahr axnchbà tj rmsa pranmpmtjusoy mb raspjbsa tj h

Addants jd Mrhb-^huem Bunoahr Axnchbà jb Q.^. Jmo

hbe @hsjomba Vrmnas

^nabhrmj #1< Mrhb-Msrhao Bunoahr Axnchbà

H bunoahr Mrhb wjuoe miiaemhtaoy abnjubtar hbjtcar

bunoahr sthtaavab md hb ubeanohrae jbamb tca ra`mjb tj 3

parnabt mb tca rst quhrtar tcht suppomas hra emsruptae,

kut tcab `rheuhooy miprjva, wmtc hb hbbuho erjp jd ; tj

1 parnabt mb tca rst yahr. @hsjomba prmnas njuoe `j up ky

>6 tj 06 parnabt, trhbsohtmb` tj phymb` $8.>6 tj $;.01 par`hoojb ijra ht tca puip. Mbhtmjb njuoe mbnrahsa 8 tj >

parnabt mb tca rst yahr, hbe katwaab 8.; hbe ;.= imoomjb

ijra pajpoa njuoe ojsa tcamr ljks.

bunoahr-nhphkoa Mrhb, rahncmb` hbe raihmbmb` ht ;6 parnabt

djr tcraa yahrs.

Mrhb-Msrhao Bunoahr Axnchbà ]ahrs

-84

-85

-8;

-86

-3

-4

-5

-;

6

Ihxmiui Hbbuhomzae

Hbbuhomzae w/

^V[

Imoomjbkhrraospare

hy


28/48


Addants jd Mrhb-Msrhao Bunoahr Axnchbà jb Q.^. Jmo

hbe @hsjomba Vrmnas

Ihnrjanjbjimn Addants jd Mrhb-Msrhao Bunoahr

Axnchbà< Bj [asarva [aoahsa

Ihnrjanjbjimn Addants jd Mrhb-Msrhao Bunoahr

Axnchbà< [asarva [aoahsa

-3%

-4%

-5%

-;%

6%

;%

5%

4%

3%

XuhrtaroyNchbà


-5%

->%

-;%

-8%

6%

8%

;%

>%

XuhrtaroyNchbà


6%

;6%

56%

46%

36%

866%

8;6%


Jba-]ahrVrmnaNchb

à

@hsjomba Jmo


29/48



30/48



31/48


suiiae djr hoo emsruptmjbs) hbe emvmeae tcms ùra ky tjtho

eaihbe djr jmo. Pa hssuiae òjkho jmo eaihbe wmoo raihmb

raohtmvaoy ht jvar tca djrasaahkoa dutura hbe usae ;68;

prjlantae oavaos jd =6 ikpe djr tcms nhonuohtmjb.;3

Baxt, wa usae tca aquhtmjb djr tca prmna aohstmnmty jd

eaihbe djr jmotca nchbà mb eaihbe djr jmo hs h rasuotjd tca nchbà mb prmnatj nhonuohta tca nchbà mb prmna

tcht wjuoe rasuot drji tca raeuntmjbs tj òjkho jmo suppoy

nhusae ky ahnc snabhrmj.;=Ky emvmemb` tca tjtho pjtabtmho

emsruptmjb hs parnabt jd òjkho jmo eaihbe ky tca prmna

aohstmnmty jd jmo, wa hrrmvae ht tca omgaoy nchbà mb prmna tcht

wjuoe jnnur drji tca ihrgat dhntjrmb` mb tca rmsgs njbthmbae

mb jur snabhrmjs. Uca rasuotmb` prmna-nchbà ùra djr tca

sthtus quj scjuoe raant tca rmsg praimui nurrabtoy pohnae

jb jmo, wcarahs tca ùra djr h bunoahr Mrhb raprasabts cjw

iunc cm`car tcht praimui njuoe rmsa jbna Mrhb kanjias

h bunoahr pjwar. Djr ahnc parmje, wa prjeunae h rhbà jd

prmna-nchbà astmihtas khsae jb wcatcar òjkho strhta`mn

patrjoaui rasarvas hra raoahsae (tca ojw nhsa) jr bjt (tca

cm`c nhsa).

Njbsaquabnas

Lust tca axpanthtmjb jd pjtabtmho dutura emsruptmjbs tcht h

bunoahr Mrhb wjuoe mbtrjeuna mbtj òjkho abar`y ihrgats

wjuoe chva h sm`bmnhbt addant jb jmo prmnas hbe, ky

axtabsmjb, tca Q.^. anjbjiy. Jur hbhoysms mbemnhtas tcht

tca axpanthtmjb jd mbsthkmomty hbe njbmnt tcht h bunoahr

Mrhb njuoe àbarhta mb òjkho abar`y ihrgats njuoe rju`coy

mbnrahsa tca prmna jd jmo ky katwaab 86 hbe ;1 parnabt,

wcmnc, `mvab nurrabt mbtarbhtmjbho jmo prmnas, wjuoe rasuot

mb prmnas $88 tj $;0 cm`car par khrrao. Hs mbsthkmomty hbe

tabsmjbs raihmb cm`c, sj wmoo prmnas, avab rmsmb` eurmb`

tca baxt savarho yahrs, rahncmb` oavaos hs iunc hs >6 tj

16 parnabt, jr $>6 tj $11 par khrrao, cm`car. Pmtcmb tcraa

yahrs, Q.^. `hsjomba prmnas njuoe mbnrahsa ky jvar >6

parnabt, aquhtmb` tj rju`coy phymb` hb heemtmjbho $8.56 par

Uacrhb nrjssmb` tca bunoahr tcrascjoe im`ct bjt

miiaemhtaoy pranmpmthta h njbmnt jr nhusa h emsruptmjb

mb tca jw jd jmo. Mt wjuoe, cjwavar, durtcar sm`bmnhbtoy

easthkmomza hb horahey tuiuotujus ra`mjb. Avhouhtmb` tca

raparnussmjbs jd h bunoahr Mrhb tcus raqumras quhbtmdymb`

tca prmna addants jd mbsthkmomty< hnnjubtmb` djr tca rasuotmb`

raohtmva helustiabts mb tca omgaomcjje jd vhrmjus emsruptmjbsthgmb` pohna hbe, tcab, nhonuohtmb` cjw òjkho ihrgats wmoo

prmna sunc àjpjomtmnho avabts.

Iatcjejoj`y

Uj hrrmva ht h ùra djr tca rmsg praimui tcht wjuoe ka

heeae tj tca prmna jd jmo tca ehy hdtar Mrhb kanhia h bunoahr

pjwar, wa usae twj ihmb ùras< tca wam`ctae sui jd tca

hijubt jd jmo tcht njuoe pjtabtmhooy ka emsruptae, axprassae

hs h parnabt jd tjtho òjkho jmo eaihbe, hbe tca prmna

aohstmnmty jd jmo eaihbe.

Dmrst, wa trhbsohtae tca va snabhrmjs wa eavaojpae

mbtj h rhbà jd emddarabt-smzae emsruptmjbs (axprassae hs

hbbuhomzae emsruptmjb ih`bmtueas) tcht njuoe jnnur, hbe

wa hssassae tca omgaomcjje jd ahnc thgmb` pohna. Mb jrear tj

absura tcht wa hrrmvae ht h pohusmkoa khsaomba rmsg praimui,

drji wcmnc tj nhonuohta tca prmna nchbà tcht h bunoahr Mrhb

njuoe nhusa, wa che tj njbsmear hb heemtmjbho snabhrmj6

6%

86%

;6%

>6%

56%

16%

46%

]ahr 8< Bj

[asarva

[aoahsa

VrmnaNchbà

@hsjomba Jmo


33/48



34/48



35/48


nhphnmty ms krju`ct jbomba tj rapohna ojst suppoy. Kut ojss

jd suppoy ms bjt tca jboy nhusa djr prmna spmgas. Nchb`mb`

àjpjomtmnho eybhimns tcht mbtrjeuna baw jr heeae mbsthkmomty

mb jmo-prjeunmb` ra`mjbssunc hs tca Imeeoa Ahstnhb

mbnrahsa tca prjspant jd h dutura emsruptmjb hbe mbhta tca

rmsg praimui tca ihrgat ms wmoomb` tj phy.

m. uppoy Emsruptmjbs

Jba sjurna jd jmo prmna spmgas chs kaab pcysmnho emsruptmjbs

tj suppomas eua tj whrdhra jr pjomtmnhooy ijtmvhtae eanmsmjbs.

Imomthry njbmnt kojngae vmtho jmo ncjgapjmbts eurmb` tca ûaz

Nrmsms (8=148=10), njbtrmkutmb` emrantoy tj h prmna luip

jd = parnabt eurmb` tca njbmnt. Jtcar whrs chva ehihàe

jr nut jdd ihljr jmoaoes hbe dhnmomtmas drji wjroe ihrgats,

hs eurmb` tca Mrhbmhb àbarho strmga hbe [avjoutmjb (8=03

8=0=), Mrhqs mbvhsmjb jd Mrhbs jmo-prjeunmb` ra`mjbs (8=36),

Mrhqs mbvhsmjb jd Guwhmt (8==6), hbe tca jpabmb` pchsa

jd tca Mrhq Phr (;66>). Jmo prmnas luipae ht tca jutsat jd

tcasa njbmnts, mbnouemb` ;6 parnabt mb ;66>, 51 parnabt mb

8=36, 10 parnabt mb 8=03, hbe =6 parnabt mb 8==6. Vjomtmns

pohyae h rjoa (hs eme jkvmjus anjbjimn mbtarasts) mb Hrhk

JVAN iaikars raeunmb` suppoy tj Pastarb khngars jd

Msrhao hime hbe djoojwmb` njbmnts mbvjovmb` Msrhao, mbnouemb`

tca anjbjimnhooy eavhsthtmb` Hrhk JVAN aikhr`j mb

8=0>8=05, eurmb` wcmnc prmnas rjsa 18 parnabt. Uca ohttar

parmje hnnaoarhtae h prmna rmsa tcht ka`hb ahromar hbe `raw

jvar tca rast jd tca eanhea.>8

mm. Mbsthkmomty

Uca ubearoymb` pjtabtmho djr mbsthkmomty tcrju`cjut tca Imeeoa

Ahst hosj nrahtas upwhre prassura jb jmo prmnas mb tca djri

jd h rmsg praimui. ^panmn axhipoas mbnouea< tca axphbsmjb

jd tca Mrhb-Mrhq Phr tj bjrtcarb @uod whtars hbe Guwhmt

(8=3;8=33), Mrhbs imomthrmzhtmjb jd msohbes bahr Cjriuz

(8==1), tca dhmoae Hkqhmq tarrjrmst htthng (;664), tca ânjbe

Oakhbjb Phr (;664), Msrhaos htthng jb ^yrmhs bunoahr

rahntjr (;660), hbe Uacrhbs Eanaikar ;688 varkho

M. Abar`y Ihrgat Eybhimns

Hssassmb` tca miphnt jd h bunoahr Mrhb jb òjkho jmo prmnas

raqumras ubearsthbemb` tca dhntjrs tcht njbtrmkuta tj tca

prmna jd jmo hbe tca eybhimns tcht nhb sabe tcjsa prmnas

sjhrmb`.

H. Uca ^jurnas jd Jmo Vrmnas

Ijst dubehiabthooy, tca prmna jd jmo ms ermvab ky suppoy hbe

eaihbe. Krjheoy spahgmb`, tca ijra jmo ms hvhmohkoa, tca

ojwar tca prmna wmoo ka, wcmoa mbnrahsmb` njbsuiptmjb jd jmo

wmoo ermva prmnas up. Kanhusa jmo ms khsmnhooy dub`mkoawcara

jba khrrao jd jmo ms rju`coy smimohr tj hbjtcar, wmtc sjia

emddarabnas mb wam`ct, suodur njbtabt, hbe vmsnjsmtytcms

suppoy/eaihbe eybhimn ms òjkho. Mb jtcar wjres, mt ms bjt

tca prjeuntmjb hbe njbsuiptmjb jd jmo mb tca Qbmtae ^thtas,

kut wjroewmea, tcht eatarimbas Q.^. prmnas.

Vranmsaoy kanhusa nruea jmo ms njbsuiae wjroewmea, jtcar

dhntjrs hosj njbtrmkuta tj tca prmna jd jmobhiaoy, tca njsts

jd axtrhntmb` tca jmo, jd trhbspjrtmb` mt, jd mbsurmb` mt wcmoa

mb rjuta, hbe tca vhoua jd tca nurrabny (usuhooy tca ejoohr,

tcju`c oass sj tchb mb pravmjus eanheas) upjb wcmnc mts

prmna ms khsae. Dmbhooy, axpanthtmjbs jd pjtabtmho suppoy

emsruptmjbs hra hosj prmnae mb, heemb` h rmsg praimui

jb tjp jd tca ijra thb`mkoa dhntjrs tcht eatarimba tca

njst jd patrjoaui. Ucms ms kanhusa mbeustrmas tcht raoy jb

patrjoaui, wcatcar djr ihbudhnturmb` purpjsas jr djr

rashoa, sunc hs rabarmas, hra omgaoy tj kumoe tcamr mbvabtjrmasjd jmo bjw md tcay djrasaa tca pjssmkmomty jd dutura scjrthàs.

Ky kuymb` up axtrh jmo, tcay ermva up nurrabt eaihbe hbe

mbnrahsa prmnas.

K. H Cmstjry jd Jmo Vrmna ^pmgas

Hs wjuoe ka axpantae jd h rasjurna kacjoeab tj tca

eybhimns jd suppoy hbe eaihbe, sueeab emsruptmjbs mb tca

hvhmohkmomty jd jmo nhb nhusa mts prmna tj spmga, tcju`c mt nhb

ra`hmb aqumomkrmui hs tca emsruptmjb ms rasjovae jr hs sphra

Hppabemnas


36/48

Hppabemnas

spmga djoojwmb` hb Msrhaom imomthry strmga ms bhva. Ucamr

hbhoysms pjmbts ijra tj nchbàs mb jmo prmna vjohtmomty tchb

spjt jmo prmnas hs tca prmihry rmsg dhntjr djr òjkho ihrgats

djoojwmb` h strmga.>5Ucms su`àsts tcht hotcju`c prmnas ihy

scjjt up mb tca miiaemhta hdtarihtc jd sunc hb avabt, tcay

wjuoe bjt raihmb aoavhtae hbe raturb tj pra-strmga oavaos

qumngoy.

N. Jmo Axpjrts Drji tca Varsmhb @uod

Uca ^trhmt jd Cjriuz ms h bhrrjw phsshà njbbantmb` tca

Varsmhb @uod wmtc tca jpab jnahb vmh tca @uod jd Jihb. Hs

tca prmihry rjuta djr Imeeoa Ahst jmo axpjrts tj Hsmh, mt ms tca

wjroes ijst vmtho abar`y-trhbsmt ncjgapjmbt. [ju`coy 85

ikpe jd nruea jmo jw tcrju`c tca strhmt, hoijst jba-dtc jd

tca òjkho jmo trhea hbe jba-tcmre jd jmo eaomvarae ky thbgar.>1

Dmva jd tca wjroes tab km`àst axpjrtars sabe tca ihljrmty

jd tcamr jutput vmh tca strhmt, wmtc ijst jd mt caheae tj va

jd tca wjroes savab km`àst mipjrtars (Ncmbh, Mbemh, Lhphb,

^jutc Gjrah, hbe tca Qbmtae ^thtas).

Uca ohrà hijubts jd jmo tcht jw tcrju`c tca ^trhmt jd

Cjriuz hra prjnassae hbe ojheae ht h daw jd tca wjroes

ohràst axpjrt dhnmomtmas.

m. ^huem Hrhkmh

^huem Hrhkmh, ht 0.0 ikpetca wjroes km`àst axpjrtar

mb ;688ojhes hoo jd mts 1.0 ikpe jd @uod axpjrts ht twj

dhnmomtmas mb tca Ahstarb Vrjvmbna bahr mts ihljr prjeunmb`

aoes. Ijst jd tcasa hra prjnassae ht tca [hs Uhburh

njipoax, tca 4.6 ikpe nhphnmty jd wcmnc ihgas mt tca

ohràst jddscjra jmo ojhemb` dhnmomty mb tca wjroe. Mt nurrabtoy

jparhtas ht bahr-nhphnmty. Uca raihmbear jd ^huem @uod

axpjrts ms eaomvarae tcrju`c bahrky [hs ho-Luhyihc, wcmnc

nurrabtoy jparhtas sm`bmnhbtoy kaojw mts >.1 ikpe nhphnmty.

Hotcju`c ^huem Hrhkmhs raihmbmb` ;.6 ikpe jd axpjrts

kyphss tca strhmt (vmh tca [ae âh), tcay hra rst prjnassae

ht tca Hkqhmq dhnmomty mb tca Ahstarb Vrjvmbna, bahrky [hs

Uhburh, hbe som`ctoy mbohbe drji tca @uod.>4

tcraht tj nojsa tca strhmt. Uca njsts tj òjkho jmo ihrgats

hssjnmhtae wmtc tcasa avabts wara raohtmvaoy imbjr hbe krmad,

mb ohrà phrt kanhusa bjba jd tcai raprasabtae h nraemkoa

jr susthmbhkoa tcraht tj tca vmthomty jd @uod prjeuntmjb hbe

axpjrts. Vrmnas amtcar luipae oass tchb 86 parnabt jvarbm`ct

kadjra eanrahsmb` stahemoy (8=34, ;660, ;688) jr rjsa

som`ctoy djr h ojbàr parmje jd tmia< hs iunc hs 3 parnabtjvar tca njursa jd h ijbtc mb 8==1 hbe bahroy 5 parnabt djr

h ijbtc eurmb` tca ânjbe Oakhbjb Phr. Ijra ranabtoy, jmo

prmnas wabt up 1 parnabt jb Luoy >, ;68;, djoojwmb` Mrhbmhb

imomthry axarnmsas, hbe > parnabt jb Luoy 8=, ;68;, hdtar

Msrhao hnnusae Mrhb jd raspjbsmkmomty djr h tarrjrmst htthng

tcht gmooae Msrhaom tjurmsts mb Kuo`hrmh. Jmo msbt trhemb` jb

dubehiabthos tca why sjia jtcar njiijemtmas hra kanhusa

jd tca dhnt yju chva ihssmva àjpjomtmnho njbnarbs hkjut tca

emsruptmjb jd suppoy, hnnjremb` tj [uncmr Ghehgmh, emrantjr

jd òjkho jmo dubehiabthos djr MC^ Nhikrmeà Abar`y

[asahrnc Hssjnmhtas.>;

mmm. Addants jd Imomthry ^trmga jb Jmo Vrmnas

Mb heemtmjb tj tca pjtabtmho emsruptmjbs rasuotmb` drji

snabhrmjs mbvjovmb` h bunoahr-nhphkoa Mrhb, tcara hra savarho

astmihtas jd tca addants jb jmo prmnas rasuotmb` drji h imomthry

strmga jb Mrhbs bunoahr prj`rhi kadjra mt hnqumras bunoahr

nhphkmomty. Hnnjremb` tj hb Hprmo ;68; rapjrt ky tca [hpmehb

@rjup, hb Msrhaom htthngnjupoae wmtc Mrhbmhb rathomhtmjb

h`hmbst Msrhaom thràtsms prjlantae tj nrahta h $0 par khrrao

praimui mb tca rst ijbtc hdtar tca jutkrahg jd njbmnt,

avab tcju`c bj jmo emsruptmjb ms axpantae tj rasuot drji tcmssnabhrmj. Md sunc h njbmnt axphbeae tj erh` mb tca Qbmtae

^thtas hbe emsrupt tca jw jd jmo tcrju`c Cjriuz djr tcraa

waags, h ihxmiui emsruptmjb jd 80 ikpe, tca praimui

wjuoe ka $;= par khrrao md MAH strhta`mn patrjoaui rasarvas

wara raoahsae ht h rhta jd 0.1 ikpe. Ucms ùra wjuoe scjjt

up tj $50 par khrrao md bj strhta`mn stjngs wara usae.>>

Jb tca jtcar chbe, hbhoysts ht tca mbvastiabt khbg L.V.

Ijr`hb chva wrmttab tcht tca njbsabsus vmaw jd h prmna


37/48


mmm. Mrhq

Omga ^huem Hrhkmh hbe Mrhb, Mrhqs smzhkoa @uod axpjrts hra

njbnabtrhtae ht jba ihljr dhnmomty bahr mts ihmb prjeunmb`

aoes. Uca >.6 ikpe-nhphnmty jddscjra tarimbho bahr

Khsrh mb tca sjutc jd Mrhq chbeoas ijst jd tcht njubtrys

rju`coy ;.; ikpe mb @uod-kjube axpjrts, wmtc tca bahrkyGcjr ho-Hihyh dhnmomty chbeomb` tca rast. Kjtc pjrts hra

smtuhtae savarho gmojiatars jdd Mrhqs njhstomba ht tca @uods

bjrtcarb hpax baxt tj Mrhb, oahvmb` mt vuobarhkoa tj imbmb`,

kojnghea, jr kamb` nut jdd jvarohbe. Qbomga Mrhb, Mrhq ms bjt

abtmraoy eapabeabt jb tca @uod djr mts axpjrts, hs mt sabes

hpprjxmihtaoy 6.5 ikpe drji mts bjrtcarb aoes tj tca

Iaemtarrhbahb vmh pmpaomba tcrju`c Uurgay.>=

mv. Jtcar @uod Njubtrmas

Uj Mrhqs miiaemhta sjutcwast, Guwhmts 8.= ikpe jd

axpjrts hra nchbbaoae tcrju`c savarho @uod dhnmomtmas. Hoo jdtcasa pjrts hra nojsa tj tca Mrhbmhb kjrear wmtc Mrhq, hs waoo

hs tj savarho msohbes bahr Mrhqs ojhemb` dhnmomtmas tcht hra

njbtastae ky tca tcraa njubtrmasMrhq, Mrhb, hbe Guwhmt.

Dhrtcar sjutc, tca Qbmtae Hrhk Aimrhtas ;.4 ikpe mb @uod

axpjrts hra sabt tcrju`c h chod-ejzab dhnmomtmas hojb` mts

njhstomba. H ohrà parnabthà jd Aimrhtm prjeuntmjb jnnurs

ht jddscjra aoes, bjt dhr drji hb hrncmpaoh`j tcht ms tca

suklant jd emsputa katwaab Mrhb hbe tca Aimrhtas. Ucasa

msohbesHku Iush hbe tca Uubkssmt hstrmea tca sah

ohbas njbbantmb` tca @uod tj tca strhmt hbe hra cjia tj

Mrhbmhb imomthry mbsthoohtmjbs usae ky Uacrhb tj htthng Aimrhtmabar`y thràts eurmb` tca Mrhb-Mrhq Phr. Khsae jb tcasa

njbsmearhtmjbs, tca Aimrhtas hra kumoemb` h pmpaomba tj ombg

tcamr Varsmhb @uod jmoaoes emrantoy tj tca njubtrys njhstomba

jb tca @uod jd Jihb. Dmbhooy, Xhthrs hpprjxmihtaoy 6.4

ikpe mb @uod axpjrts hra ojheae ht tcraa pjrts jb tca sihoo

pabmbsuohs ahstarb scjra, hojb`smea mts ihssmva bhturho-

`hs axpjrt tarimbhos hbe oass tchb 866 imoas ahst jd ^huem

Hrhkmhs prmihry jmo-prjnassmb` njipoax.56

Mb heemtmjb tj hnnjubtmb` djr 56 parnabt jd hoo jmo trhbsmtmb`

Cjriuz, ^huem Hrhkmh hosj pjssassas 8.1 tj ;.6 ikpe jd

tca wjroes hpprjxmihtaoy ;.5 ikpe jd sphra prjeuntmjb

nhphnmty (tca rast ms caoe ky mts Hrhk @uod hoomas).>0Ucms

hoojws [myhec tj khohbna tca òjkho jmo ihrgat hbe ermva

ejwb prmnas, hs mt ms ubmquaoy hkoa tj pmng up tca sohng

nhusae ky axpjrt emsruptmjbs aosawcara. Ijst ranabtoy, mtchs kjjstae prjeuntmjb tj hssuhà njbnarbs hkjut ojst

Mrhbmhb axpjrts rasuotmb` drji shbntmjbs. Hby nojsura jd tca

strhmt njuoe tcus chva h prmna miphnt kayjbe tca vjouia

emsruptae, smbna tca ihrgat njuoe bjt njubt jb mts swmb`

prjeunar tj njipabshta djr tca raeuntmjb mb Cjriuz-kjube

axpjrts. Mbeaae, tcms snabhrmj wjuoe djrna [myhec tj emvart

axmstmb` axpjrts tcrju`c mts [ae âh kyphssas hbe ojhemb`

dhnmomtmas, wcmnc nurrabtoy njuoe bjt chbeoa heemtmjbho

suppomas. Ejiastmn mbsthkmomty mb tca gmbèji wjuoe chva h

smimohr addant, kanhusa tca wjroes jtcar ihljr axpjrtars hra

horahey prjeunmb` ht jr bahr-nhphnmty (bhiaoy, [ussmh) hbe,mb sjia nhsas, hra axparmabnmb` eanombmb` prjeuntmjb oavaos.

mm. Mrhb

Mrhbs 1.6 ikpe-nhphnmty tarimbho ht Gchr` Msohbe mb tca

bjrtcarb Varsmhb @uod ms tca ra`mjbs sanjbe-ohràst dhnmomty.

Mt ms hosj cjia tj =6 parnabt jd Mrhbs jbscjra stjrhà

thbgs, wcmnc chva ooae tj tca krmi hs shbntmjbs nhusae

Uacrhbs prmihry nustjiars tj ojjg aosawcara djr suppomas.

Pcmoa mt prjnassas rju`coy =3 parnabt jd Mrhbmhb axpjrts,

tcrju`cput chs eanrahsae hs shbntmjbs raeunae Uacrhbs

axpjrts drji ;.; ikpe mb tca rst chod jd ;688 tj 8.0ikpe mb tca rst chod jd ;68;. Ucms ùra njbtmbuas tj

ewmbeoa, dhoomb` som`ctoy kaojw 8.6 ikpe mb Huùst ;68;.

Mrhb hosj ihmbthmbs savarho, iunc sihooar ojhemb` pjrts

mb tca sjutcarb @uod bahr tca strhmt. Uca schrp erjp-jdd mb

axpjrts eua tj shbntmjbs prjiptae Mrhb tj emvart hs iunc

hs jba-tcmre jd ehmoy jmo axpjrts mbtj taipjrhry stjrhà. Ky

ime-;68; tcms hijubtae tj ;1 imoomjb khrraos mb jbscjra

stjrhà thbgs ht Gchr` Msohbe hbe hbjtcar 5; imoomjb khrraos

mb jhtmb` stjrhà.>3


38/48

Hppabemnas

A. Jmo Vrmnas hbe Q.^. Anjbjiy

Dountuhtmjbs mb tca prmna jd jmo trhbsohta emrantoy mbtj miphnts

jb tca Q.^. anjbjiy kanhusa jd tca raomhbna jb patrjoaui-

khsae prjeunts ky tca Q.^. `jvarbiabt, kusmbassas, hbe

mbemvmeuhos.5>Ucht raomhbna, wcht anjbjimsts nhoo tca abar`y

mbtabsmty jd tca anjbjiy, chs hntuhooy kaab raeunae jvartca ohst savarho eanheas. Mb 8=01, tca Qbmtae ^thtas whs

usmb` 8.; khrraos jd jmo djr avary $8,666 jd @EV7 ky ;686,

tcht buikar che dhooab ky ijra tchb 16 parnabt tj 6.1

khrraos par $8,666 jd @EV.55

Ucms scjuoe iahb tcht tca Qbmtae ^thtas ms kattar mbsuohtae

drji anjbjimn scjngs wcab jmo-suppoy emsruptmjbs ej

chppab. Cjwavar, jvar tca shia tmia parmje, tca why mb

wcmnc Hiarmnhbs usa abar`y chs nchbàe. Mb 8=01, tca

rasmeabtmho hbe njiiarnmho santjr whs usmb` hoijst 8;

parnabt jd hoo tca jmo njbsuiae mb tca Qbmtae ^thtas, wcmoa

hoijst 11 parnabt whs kamb` usae ky trhbspjrthtmjb. Ky

;686, tcjsa buikars che nchbàe tj rju`coy 4 hbe 08

parnabt, raspantmvaoy. Jvar tcht parmje, tca schra jd jmo usae

ky tca mbeustrmho hbe aoantrmn santjrs hosj daoo som`ctoy. Uca

rasuot ms tcht ijra jd tca jmo usae ky Hiarmnhbs ms `jmb` tj

duao tca nhrs wa usa tj àt tj wjrg hbe rub jur arrhbes hbe

tca trungs wa usa tj chuo djjes hbe `jjes. Ucms ihgas jmo

ijra mbemspabshkoa tj jur ehmoy omvas tchb mt whs 56 yahrs

h`j. Ucus, jmo eaihbe chs kanjia ijra mbaohstmn tchb mt

usae tj ka7 avab md suppomas eanrahsa hbe prmnas `j up,

Hiarmnhbs wmoo bjt ahsmoy helust tcamr patrjoaui-prjeunt

kuymb` chkmts.51

Ucms njikmbhtmjb jd eanrahsae abar`y mbtabsmty hbe `rahtar

mbaohstmnmty jd eaihbe rju`coy khohbna ahnc jtcar jut hbe

trhbsohta mbtj h njbtmbuae vuobarhkmomty jd tca Q.^. anjbjiy

tj tca sjrt jd suppoy emsruptmjbs hbe avab àjpjomtmnho

mbsthkmomty hssassae mb tcms phpar.

E. Hotarbhtmva Axpjrt [jutas

Ucara hra twj miiaemhta kyphss jptmjbs djr rjutmb`

nruea-jmo axpjrts hrjube tca Varsmhb @uod hbe tca ^trhmt jd

Cjriuz. Uca rst ms h sat jd pmpaombas (tca Vatrjomba jr Ahst-

Past Vmpaomba) drji ^huem Hrhkmhs Ahstarb Vrjvmbna tj mts

pjrts jb tca [ae âh. Nurrabtoy, hoo jd [myhecs bjb-@uod jmoaxpjrts (;.6 ikpe) jw tcrju`c tcms rjuta. Mb ;68;, [myhec

njbvartae h bhturho-`hs pmpaomba jb tcms rjuta tj nhrry

nruea jmo, tcaraky hoojwmb` mt tj emvart up tj 1.6 heemtmjbho

ikpe (ihmboy @uod-kjube axpjrts tj Hsmh) mb hb aiaràbny,

hssuimb` tca upstrahi mbdrhstruntura raihmbs dubntmjbho.

Uhbgars oahvmb` tca [ae âh djr Hsmh wjuoe chva tj trhvao

ojbàr emsthbnas, tcus rhmsmb` trhbsmt njsts. Ucrju`c tca

usa jd ncaimnhos nhooae erh` raeunmb` hàbts tj raeuna

drmntmjb hbe kjjst tcrju`cput mb tca pmpaombas, ^huem Hrhkmh

njuoe mbnrahsa tca nhphnmty jd tcms kyphss rjuta ky hb

heemtmjbho 8.6 ikpe.58

Uca Qbmtae Hrhk Aimrhtas Hku Echkm Nruea Jmo Vmpaomba

(8.1 ikpe) nuts emrantoy drji tca njubtrys @uod-smea

jmoaoes tj mts axpjrt tarimbho ht Dulhmrhc jb tca @uod jd

Jihb. Nurrabtoy, mt ms jboy nhphkoa jd chbeomb` 6.1 ikpe,

kut mt ms axpantae tj rahnc ihxmiui nhphnmty mb ;68;.5;

Ucara hra twj heemtmjbho kyphss jptmjbs tcht njuoe kanjia

hvhmohkoa jvar tca ojbàr tari. Uca rst ms tca Mrhq Vmpaomba

tcrju`c ^huem Hrhkmh (MV^H7 8.41 ikpe), kumot eurmb` tca

Mrhb-Mrhq Phr tj hoojw Mrhqm jmo tj kyphss tca @uod hbe tca

strhmt ky sabemb` mt tj tca [ae âh bahr ]hbku. MV^H chskaab nojsae smbna Mrhqs mbvhsmjb jd Guwhmt, kut [myhec chs

kaùb ranjbemtmjbmb` mts pjrtmjb jd tca pmpaomba tj hoojw mt

tj emvart heemtmjbho @uod-kjube axpjrts. Uca bho kyphss

jptmjb ms tca Mrhq-Uurgay pmpaomba, wcmnc, md njbbantae tj

Mrhqs ihljr prjeunmb` aoes hojb` tca Varsmhb @uod rmi,

njuoe emvart hb heemtmjbho 6.= ikpe drji tca @uod tj tca

Iaemtarrhbahb.


39/48


H. Eavaojpmb` ^nabhrmjs

Djr ahnc jd tca va pjssmkoa snabhrmjs, wa axhimbae tca

omgaoy ih`bmtuea hbe eurhtmjb jd tca emsruptmjb mt wjuoe

nhusa hbe njbsmearae wcht tca prjkhkmomty jd mt jnnurrmb`

whs mb tca nurrabt sthtus quj, miiaemhtaoy hdtar Mrhb

nrjssae tca bunoahr tcrascjoe, hbe mb tca djoojwmb` twjyahrs (jr tcraa yahrs jd tca wjroe omvmb` wmtc h bunoahr Mrhb).

Hotcju`c wa ej bjt mbnouea mt hs jba jd jur va snabhrmjs,

wa hosj njbsmearae tca pjssmkmomty jd h imomthry strmga h`hmbst

Mrhbmhb bunoahr dhnmomtmas. Hotcju`c avhouhtmb` tca njsts jd

sunc h strmga ms bjt tca jklantmva jd tcms stuey, wa ncjsa tj

axhimba tcms snabhrmj kanhusa mt ms parchps tca ijst omgaoy

emsruptmva tcraht mb tca nurrabt pra-bunoahr Mrhb sthtus quj.

Ucus, wmtcjut mt, wa wjuoe bjt chva kaab hkoa tj eavaojp

h pohusmkoa astmihta jd tca nurrabt khsaomba rmsg praimui

horahey prmnae mbtj tca njst jd h khrrao jd jmo, bjr hnnurhtaoy

nhonuohta tca prmna mbnrahsa tcht wjuoe rasuot drji h bunoahr

Mrhb. Pa wara ùmeae prmihrmoy ky jtcar stuemas njbeuntae

jd tcms snabhrmj, hbe tca emsruptmjb ih`bmtuea hbe prjkhkoa

prmna spmga rasuotmb` drji mts jnnurrabna su`àstae ky jur

ijeao hra mb omba wmtc tcjsa djube mb tca axmstmb` omtarhtura. 54

Uj hnnjubt djr tca eurhtmjb hbe eybhimsi jd ahnc

snabhrmjhs sjia jmo prjeuntmjb ms rastjrae jr kyphss

axpjrt rjutas hntmvhtae jvar tmiawa axprass tca

ih`bmtuea jd ahnc snabhrmjs emsruptmjb mb taris jd tca

hvarhà ehmoy jmo-suppoy ojss jvar tca parmje jd h yahr.

Ucus, wcmoa wa hssuia tcht tca shkjthà jd ^huem jmo-prjnassmb` dhnmomtmas im`ct nhusa 1.0 ikpe tj ka emsruptae

mb tca miiaemhta hdtarihtc jd tca avabt, ^huem jmo wjuoe

ka ra-rjutae tcrju`c pmpaombas mb h ihttar jd waags jr

ijbtcs, imtm`htmb` iunc jd tca suppoy ojss hbe ojwarmb`

tca hbbuhomzae hvarhà emsruptmjb tj lust chod h imoomjb

khrraos par ehy. Ijrajvar, tcms hpprjhnc hoojws us tj dhntjr

mb tca pjtabtmho miphnt jd patrjoaui raoahsae drji pukomn

patrjoaui stjngs,50sunc hs tca Q.^. ^trhta`mn Vatrjoaui

[asarva,53ky eaeuntmb` axpantae rasarva raoahsas drji

MM. Iatcjejoj`y

Hssassmb` tca miphnt tcht h bunoahr Mrhb wjuoe chva

jb òjkho jmo prmnas ms bjt hs smipoa hs iahsurmb` tca

raparnussmjbs jd h njbmnt wmtc Mrhb. Uca ohttar wjuoe hoijst

narthmboy emsrupt jmo suppomas mb tca Varsmhb @uod< Mrhbs jmo

axpjrts hra omgaoy tj `rmbe tj h chot hbe thbgar trhdn tcrju`ctca ^trhmt jd Cjriuz njuoe suddar hs waoo. âvarho vhrmhkoas

sunc hs< Ms mt hb Msrhaom jr Q.^. strmga: Ejas Mrhb httaipt

tj nojsa tca strhmt: Ejas Mrhb mbmnt sm`bmnhbt ehihà jb

^huem jmo dhnmomtmas:wjuoe hddant tca axtabt hbe eurhtmjb jd

tca emsruptmjb, wcmnc, mb turb, wjuoe eatarimba cjw cm`c jmo

prmnas wjuoe spmga hbe cjw ojb` tcay wjuoe sthy tcara.

Uacrhb nrjssmb` tca bunoahr tcrascjoe, cjwavar, im`ct bjt

miiaemhtaoy pranmpmthta h njbmnt jr nhusa h emsruptmjb

mb tca jw jd jmo. Mt wjuoe, tcju`c, durtcar sm`bmnhbtoy

easthkmomza hb horahey tuiuotujus ra`mjb. Avhouhtmb` tca

raparnussmjbs jd h bunoahr Mrhb tcus raqumras quhbtmdymb`

tca prmna addants jd mbsthkmomty< hnnjubtmb` djr tca rasuotmb`

raohtmva helustiabts mb tca omgaomcjje jd vhrmjus emsruptmjbs

thgmb` pohna hbe tcab nhonuohtmb` cjw òjkho ihrgats wmoo

prmna sunc àjpjomtmnho avabts.

Jur stuey, tcus, njbsmsts jd djur phrts< Dmrst, wa njbsmearae

tca rhbà jd pjomtmnho, empojihtmn, hbe imomthry raparnussmjbs

jd h bunoahr Mrhb mb jrear tj eavaojp h sat jd va pjssmkoa

snabhrmjswcmnc, md tcay jnnurrae, wjuoe emsrupt tca

jw jd jmohbe tj hssass tca prjkhkmomty jd ahnc snabhrmj

jnnurrmb`. ânjbeoy, wa trhbsohtae tcasa snabhrmjs mbtjh rhbà jd pjssmkoa emsruptmjbs jd vhrymb` ih`bmtueas

hbe eurhtmjbs. Ucmre, khsae jb tca omgaomcjje jd tcasa

emsruptmjbs jnnurrmb`, wa nhonuohtae tca rmsg praimui omgaoy

tj ka heeae tj òjkho jmo prmnas nurrabtoy hs waoo hs djoojwmb`

hb Mrhbmhb krahgjut. Dmbhooy, wa hssassae tca miphnt tcms

wjuoe chva jb tca Q.^. anjbjiy mb taris jd h rhbà jd

ihnrj-anjbjimn mbemnhtjrs, mbnouemb` `hsjomba prmnas, @EV,

mbhtmjb, hbe ubaipojyiabt.


40/48

Hppabemnas

K. Vrmnmb` [msg

Uj hrrmva ht h ùra djr tca rmsg praimui tcht wjuoe ka

heeae tj tca prmna jd jmo tca ehy hdtar Mrhb kanhia h bunoahr

pjwar, wa usae twj ihmb ùras< tca wam`ctae sui jd tca

hijubt jd jmo tcht njuoe pjtabtmhooy ka emsruptae, axprassae

hs h parnabt jd tjtho òjkho jmo eaihbe, hbe tca prmnaaohstmnmty jd jmo eaihbe.

m. Emsruptmjb Hijubt

Dmrst, wa trhbsohtae ahnc snabhrmj mbtj h rhbà jd emddarabt-

smzae emsruptmjbs (axprassae hs hbbuhomzae emsruptmjb

ih`bmtueas) tcht njuoe jnnur hbe hssassae tca omgaomcjje

jd ahnc thgmb` pohna. Ucms whs banasshry kanhusa tca

snabhrmjs hra bjt iutuhooy axnousmva mb tcamr pranmpmthtmb`

nhusas hbe/jr tcamr emsruptmva addants. Djr axhipoa, ^huem

prjeuntmjb ms emsruptae mb savarho jd tca snabhrmjs easnrmkae

hkjva (^huem mbsthkmomty, ^huem dhnmomtmas eastrjyae, hbeMrhb-^huem bunoahr axnchbà). Md twj jd tca avabts wara

tj chppab ht tca shia tmia, cjwavar, tca emsruptmjb

ih`bmtuea wjuoe bjt ejukoa^huem suppoy nhb jboy ka ojst

jbna. Ucus, ky ojjgmb` ht tca pjtabtmho djr emddarabt-smzae

emsruptmjbs, wa wara hkoa tj njbtrjo djr tca mbtareapabeabna

jd jur jrm`mbho snabhrmjs hbe hvjme ejukoa-njubtmb` suppoy

ojssas.

ânjbe, djr ahnc tmia parmjesthtus quj, tca rst yahr jd

h bunoahr Mrhb, hbe tca djoojwmb` twj yahrswa hssassae

tca pjtabtmho jmo-suppoy emsruptmjb hs h parnabt jd tca tjtho

òjkho jmo eaihbe. Uj ej sj, wa nhonuohtae tca prjkhkmomty-

wam`ctae sui jd tca hijubt jd jmo tcht njuoe ka emsruptae mb

ahnc snabhrmj (tca prjkhkmomty jd ahnc emsruptmjb jnnurrmb`

iuotmpomae ky tca hijubt jd jmo tcht wjuoe ka emsruptae,

suiiae djr hoo emsruptmjbs) hbe emvmeae tcms ùra ky tjtho

eaihbe djr jmo. Pa hssuiae òjkho jmo eaihbe wmoo raihmb

raohtmvaoy ht jvar tca djrasaahkoa dutura hbe usae ;68;

prjlantae oavaos jd =6 ikpe djr tcms nhonuohtmjb.16

tca tjtho emsruptmjb hijubt hbe helustmb` tca hbbuhomzae

hvarhà hnnjrembòy.

Baxt, wa njbeuntae h survay jd jur Uhsg Djrna iaikars,

hsgmb` tcai tj hssass tca omgaomcjje jd ahnc snabhrmj

jnnurrmb` mb tca nurrabt sthtus quj, wmtcmb jba yahr jd Mrhb

hnqumrmb` bunoahr wahpjbs nhphkmomty, hbe mb tca djoojwmb`twj yahrs. Pa hvarhàe tca rasuots jd tca survay tj hrrmva

ht hb mbdjriae astmihtakhsae upjb tca gbjwoaeà hbe

axparmabna jd tca raspjbeabts wmtc tca eybhimns tcht ermva

avabts mb tca ra`mjbjd tca prjkhkmomtmas tcht hby jd jur smx

snabhrmjs wjuoe jnnur.

Pa hra duooy hwhra tcht httaiptmb` tj praemnt tca dutura

ms bj ahsy daht. Pa ncjjsa tj hssm`b prjkhkmomtmas tj jur

snabhrmjs bjt jut jd hby njbvmntmjb tcht wa njuoe hnnurhtaoy

hssm`b h buiarmnho vhoua tj tca omgaomcjje jd narthmb avabts

chppabmb`, kut kanhusa wa kaomava tcht ky quhbtmdymb`

tcasa jtcarwmsa hkstrhnt pjssmkmomtmas, ky httaiptmb` tj

iahsura tcamr njbsaquabnas, wa nhb oabe h njbnratabass

tj tca eakhta jb tcms vmtho mssua. WDYhnts hkjut nrunmho

mbtarbhtmjbho mssuas hra rhraoy njbnousmva, hnnjremb` tj

Chrvhre sncjohr hbe djriar Eadabsa Eaphrtiabt jdnmho

Ljsapc Bya. Ucara ms jdtab abju`c avmeabna tj mbemnt,

rhraoy abju`c tj njbvmnt. ]at pjomnyihgars hra ubear

abjrijus prassura tj ihga eanmsmjbs. Djr tcasa rahsjbs

ca hrùas, [htcar tchb usa vhùa wjres omga pjssmkoy jr

sihoo kut sm`bmnhbt nchbna, wcara dahsmkoa tca astmihtas

prasabt lueìabts jd omgaomcjje hs buiarmnho parnabthàs

jr kattjrs jees. Uj ka sura, tcms ms h njbtrjvarsmho hpprjhnc7mt ms mipjssmkoa tj axpohmb wcy sjiatcmb` ms jba nchbna mb

twj jr jba nchbna mb tcraa. Avab sj, tca pjomnyihgars hra

kattar sarvae tchb md WtjoeY sjiatcmb` ms pjssmkoa, wcmnc ms

aqumvhoabt tj taoomb` tcai tcara ms h 8 tj 5= parnabt nchbna

mt wmoo chppabbjt iunc caop tj sjiajba trymb` tj ihga

hb mipjrthbt eanmsmjb.5=


41/48


rmsgs njbthmbae mb jur snabhrmjs. Uca rasuotmb` prmna-nchbà

ùra djr tca sthtus quj scjuoe raant tca rmsg praimui

nurrabtoy pohnae jb jmo7 wcarahs tca ùra djr h bunoahr

Mrhb raprasabts cjw cm`c tcht praimui njuoe rmsa jbna Mrhb

kanjias h bunoahr pjwar.

N. Anjbjimn Miphnts

Pa usae twj emddarabt ijeaos mb jur hbhoysms< jba eavaojpae

ky Er. Ehbmao Hcb, h iaikar jd tca Uhsg Djrna, hbe jba

prjeunae ky tca Bhtmjbho Mbstmtuta jd Anjbjimn hbe ^jnmho

[asahrnc, tca Bhtmjbho Mbstmtuta @ojkho Anjbjiatrmn Ijeao

(BM@AI). Kjtc ijeaos ymaoeae smimohr rasuots. Uca buikars

nmtae mb tcms phpar hra tca rasuots jd tca djriar (Hcb) ijeao.

Er. Hcbs ijeao ms h duoo-snhoa njiputhkoa àbarho

aqumomkrmui (N@A) ijeao jd tca Q.^. anjbjiy hbe tca

òjkho anjbjiy, mbvjovmb` bahroy h tcjushbe anjbjimn

vhrmhkoas hbe raohtmjbscmps. Mb assabna, tca ijeao ms himbmhtura anjbjiy wmtc vmrtuho njubtarphrts djr h wmea

vhrmaty jd anjbjimn hntjrs, mbnouemb` cjusacjoes7 ris7 tca

bhbnmho santjr7 tca nabtrho khbg7 tca daearho, sthta, hbe

ojnho `jvarbiabts7 hbe kayjbe.

Uca ihmb hevhbthà jd tcms ijeao ms tcht njubtardhntuhos

nhb ka emrantoy smiuohtae hbe iuotmpoa nhushomty ojjps,

sunc hs tca raspjbsa jd tca Daearho [asarva mbtarast

rhta, hra axpomnmtoy thgab mbtj hnnjubt. Uca ijeao ms

emstmbntoy Baw Gaybasmhb mb spmrmt, mb tcht njbsuiptmjb,

shvmb`s, mbvastiabt, hbe jtcar nrmtmnho anjbjimn eanmsmjbs

hra axpomnmtoy ijeaoae. Ucms kachvmjr ms astmihtae

sthtmstmnhooy usmb` phst cmstjrmnho ehth. Cabna, sueeab

nchbàs mb kachvmjr drji pravmjus cmstjry ihy ka pjjroy

hbtmnmphtae hbe nhpturae ky tca ijeao. Pa kaomava tca

astmihtas raturbae hra hs sjpcmstmnhtae hbe nraemkoa hs

hby jtcar tcht nhb ka earmvae usmb` h ijeao tj hssass tca

njbsaquabnas jd hb jmo scjng jb tca òjkho ihnrj-anjbjiy.

mm. Vrmna Aohstmnmty jd Eaihbe

Baxt, wa usae tca aquhtmjb djr tca prmna aohstmnmty jd

eaihbe (VAE) djr jmotca parnabt nchbà mb eaihbe

djr jmo hs h rasuot jd h `mvab parnabt nchbà mb prmnatj

nhonuohta tca nchbà mb prmna tcht wjuoe rasuot drji tca

raeuntmjbs tj òjkho jmo suppoy nhusae ky ahnc snabhrmj.18

Djr tca shga jd smipomnmty, tca VAE im`ct ka hssuiae tj

ka h njbsthbt, h prjparty jd hoo njiijemtmas tcht nhb ka

jksarvae mb hbe earmvae drji cmstjrmnho prmnmb` ehth. H

VAE jd -8, djr axhipoa, eabjtas tcht eaihbe djr h `mvab

njiijemty erjps prjpjrtmjbhooy tj hby mbnrahsa mb mts prmna.

Ucus, njbsuiars wmoo howhys spabe tca shia quhbtmty jd

ijbay djr sunc `jjes, ra`hreoass jd cjw iunc jd tca `jje

tcht ijbay kuys tcai. Nojtcmb`, wcmnc njbsuiars im`ct

kuy ijra jd md mt ms jb shoa, kut usuhooy sthymb` wmtcmb h

xae kueàt, im`ct ka hb axhipoa jd sunc h `jje. H ojwar

VAE, djr axhipoa ->, wjuoe raprasabt h njiijemty tcht ms

shme tj ka aohstmn hbe ms omgaoy tj ka h `jje tcht pajpoa nhb

amtcar ej wmtcjut jr ahsmoy be sukstmtutas djr. Eaihbe djr

honjcjomn kavarhàs, djr axhipoa, dhoos mbtj tcms nhta`jry.1;

H prmna aohstmnmty tcht hpprjhncas zarj, jb tca jtcar chbe,

sm`bmas h njiijemty djr wcmnc eaihbe nchbàs omttoa,

avab hs prmnas rmsa. Njiijemtmas tcht chva sunc mbaohstmn

eaihbe hra ijra omgaoy tj ka banassmtmas tcht hra bjt ahsmoy

rapohnae. Jmo dhoos mbtj tcms nhta`jry. Anjbjimsts chva bjt

njhoasnae jb h smbòa vhoua djr VAE jd jmo7 cjwavar, emddarabt

stuemas usmb` vhrmjus iatcjejoj`mas chva hrrmvae ht dhmroy

smimohr rasuots< katwaab -6.61 hbe -6.60 mb tca scjrt tari.Djoojwmb` tca oahe jd ranabt anjbjimn sncjohrscmp, wa chva

usae tca hvarhà jd tcasa vhouas (-6.64) mb jur nhonuohtmjbs,

kut wa chva hosj mbnoueae tca rasuots hrrmvae ht usmb` kjtc

tca cm`car hbe ojwar vhouas tj prjvmea h pjssmkoa rhbà jd

rmsg praimuis tcht njuoe rasuot drji ahnc snabhrmj.

Ky emvmemb` tca tjtho pjtabtmho emsruptmjb hs parnabt jd òjkho

jmo eaihbe ky tca VAE jd jmo, wa hrrmvae ht tca omgaoy nchbà

mb prmna tcht wjuoe jnnur drji tca ihrgat dhntjrmb` mb tca


42/48

Hppabemnas

àbarho trabes hbe ombghàs tj pjomny axparts hbe tca

àbarho pukomn homga tchb tj kumoe quhbtmthtmva ijeaos wjrtcy

jd Phoo ^traat. ânjbe, wa ubeartjjg tj vat jur tcmbgmb`

wmtc savarho raputhkoa abar`y hbe anjbjimn axparts. Uj

tcht abe, kayjbe jur jwb Uhsg Djrna hbe sthddwcmnc

mbnoueas ijstoy imomthry hbe bhtmjbho sanurmty axparts, wmtc

h njupoa jd anjbjimn hbe abar`y axpartswa hssaikoaeh ravmaw kjhre tj tast jur hssuiptmjbs, axhimba ahnc jd

jur snabhrmjs, mbspant jur iatcjejoj`y, hbe hpprhmsa jur

njbnousmjbs. Hs h rasuot, tca njbnousmjbs wa chva hrrmvae

ht raprasabt tca rahsjbae lueìabt jd h emvarsa `rjup

jd axpartsnjiprmsmb` djriar aoantae oahears, imomthry

jdnmhos, empojihts, pjomny ihgars, abar`y hbhoysts, hbe

anjbjimstsjd wcht tj axpant tca ehy hdtar Mrhb jkthmbs h

bunoahr wahpjbs nhphkmomty.

E. Nhvaht

Httaipts ht praemntmjb hbe quhbtmnhtmjb jd dutura avabts

hra drhu`ct wmtc parmos hbe ju`ct ka hpprjhncae wmtc

cuimomty. Ucus, wa ubeartjjg tcms stuey bjt tj ymaoe hb

hutcjrmthtmva easnrmptmjb jd wcht wmoochppab tca ehy hdtar

Mrhb kanjias h bunoahr pjwar, kut tj prjvmea hb hnnjubtjd wcht im`ct chppab tcht njuoe ohy tca djubehtmjb djr

emsnussmjb hijb` rahsjbhkoa pajpoa.

Djr tcms rahsjb, jur addjrt chs kaab ùmeae tcrju`cjut

ky tca twmb prmbnmpoas jd smipomnmty hbe paar ravmaw. Dmrst,

rhtcar tchb eavaojp cm`coy njipoax hbe tancbmnho ijeaos

jd cjw abar`y ihrgats dubntmjb jr jd wcht ermvas tca Q.^.

anjbjiy, wa chva jptae tcrju`cjut tj ihga smipomdymb`

hssuiptmjbs. Ucms im`ct shnrmna praemntmva hnnurhny, kut

wa eanmeae mt ijra mipjrthbt tj eaijbstrhta mbtaoom`mkoy


43/48


HBBQHOM\AE EM^[QVUMJB XQHBUMU] (IKVE) V[JKHKMOMU] JD JNNQ[[ABNA

^nabhrmjsKhsaomba< Vra-Bunoahr Mrhb

Bunoahr Mrhb

Bj [aoahsa[asarvas[aoahsae

8 yahr > yahrs

8;.; =.6 Mrhb-^huem Bunoahr Axnchbà 6.6% 1.6% 81.6%

0.> >.5Imomthry ^trmga & ^huem Mbsthkmomty jr

Mrhb-Msrhao Bunoahr Axnchbà86.6% 1.6% 1.6%

1.6 ;.8^huem Mbsthkmomty jr Mrhb-Msrhao Bunoahr

Axnchbà81.6% 56.6% 51.6%

>.= 8.> ^huem Mbsthkmomty & hbntmjbs Ohpsa 8.6% 1.6% 86.6%

;.; 8.; Imomthry ^trmga >6.6% 1.6% 1.6%

6.1 6.; ^huem Dhnmomtmas Eastrjyae 1.6% 86.6% 86.6%

-8.; -8.; ^hbntmjbs Ohpsa 1.6% 86.6% 86.6%

Emsruptmjb Vjtabtmho (ikpe) 8.=> >.; 5.4

% Nchbà mb Eaihbe ;.8% >.4% 1.;%

@ojkho Eaihbe (ikpe) =6.6

Vrmna Aohstmnmty jd Jmo Eaihbe -6.64

% Vrmna Nchbà Bj [aoahsa >1.3% 46.6% 34.8%

% Vrmna Nchbà [asarvas [aoahsae 84.5% ;=.>% 51.>%

% Vrmna Nchbà drji Khsaomba Bj [aoahsa ;5.;% 16.;%

% Vrmna Nchbà drji Khsaomba [asarvas [aoahsae 8;.=% ;=.6%


44/48



45/48


85. Abar`y Mbdjrihtmjb Heimbmstrhtmjb, Vatrjoaui Ncrjbjoj`y jd Avabts 8=06-;666,

Ihy ;66;7 Urjukoa mb tca Vmpaomba< [ussmhs Jmo Mbeustry,UcaAnjbjimst, Ihy 3,

;6637 Lhvmar Kohs, Mrhqs jmo jutput jvarthgas Mrhbs,UcaPhscmb`tjb Vjst, Huùst

86, ;68;7Kabjt Dhunjb, ânurmty Dahrs Nojue Omkyhb Jmo @rjwtc,UcaPhoo

^traat Ljurbho, âptaikar 85, ;68;.

81. Q.^. Eaphrtiabt jd ^thta, Imbmstry jd Mbtarmjr Njbtmbuas tj Qbearsnjra Mrhbmhb

Ucraht tj Vatrjoaui Dhnmomtmas (oahgae empojihtmn nhkoa), Hprmo ;>, ;6607 Q.^.

Eaphrtiabt jd ^thta, Nrmtmnho Mbdrhstruntura Vrjtantmjb mb ^huem< Baxt ^taps (oahgae

empojihtmn nhkoa), Huùst 88, ;663.

84. ^tavab H. Cmoeratc, Mrhbs Khoomstmn Imssmoa Vrj`rhis< Hb Jvarvmaw, Njb`rassmjbho

[asahrnc ârvmna, Dakruhry 5, ;66=7 Ucji ^chbgar, Q.^. hbe @uod Hoomas Vursua h

Imssmoa ^cmaoe H`hmbst Mrhbmhb Htthng,UcaBaw ]jrg Umias, Huùst 3, ;68;

the price of inaction: analysis of energy and economic effects of a nuclear iran

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