the potential and limits of foresight/ futures …referat stationare altenhilfe [1] paracelsus med...
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D r . K e r s t i n C u h l s
F r a u n h o f e r I n s t i t u t e f o r S y s t e m s a n d I n n o v a t i o n R e s e a r c h
THE POTENTIAL AND LIMITS OF FORESIGHT/ FUTURES RESEARCH
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1. Chances
2. Limits
3. Education
4. Ask the right questions!
Agenda
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What i s Fores ight? Our unders tanding
Foresight is the
structured debate
about complex futures
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Fores ight
Foresight is the
structured debate
about complex futures
structured: systematic approach by applying methods of futures research, science-based, based on new theories of futures research
structured debate: interaction of relevant actors, active preparation for the future or different futures, orientation towards shaping the future
complex: consideration of systemic interdependencies, holistic view
futures: open view on different paths into the future, thinking in alternatives
long- and medium-term view
no planning, but a step on the way to planning (strategic foresight)
no prediction
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Systemat ic Exp lorat ion of D i fferent Futures (Futures Research def in i t ion)
present possible future(s)
desirable future
probable future(s)
vision
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Zukunftsforschung (Freie Universität Berlin):
Zukunftsforschung beschäftigt sich mit möglichen, wahrscheinlichen und wünschbaren zukünftigen Entwicklungen. Denn auch wenn sich die Zukunft nicht vorhersehen lässt, zeichnen sich doch schon heute wichtige Entwicklungsstrukturen in ihren Grundzügen ab. Die Leitplanken des Möglichen, Wahrscheinlichen und Wünschenswerten sind in diesem Sinn durch wissenschaftliche Verfahren und im gesellschaftlichen Diskurs bestimmbar. Dies ist die Aufgabe der Zukunftsforschung.
Futures Research deals with possible, probable and desirable future developments. Even if the future cannot be predicted, major development emerge already today in their basics. The guardrails of the possible, probable and desirable can be determined in this sense by scientific methods and in social discourses. This is the task of future research.
Futures Research
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Phases of Fores ight
1. Stocktaking
(diagnosis phase)
2. Outlook
(explorative phase )
3. Judgement
(assessment phase)
4. Making Choices
(selection phase)
5. Outcomes/ Action
(implementation phase)
Results
Results
Results
Results Results
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Phases of Fores ight – adapted to EFFLA
Results
Results
Results
Results Results
1. Strategic
Intelligence
2. Sense-
Making
3. Selecting
Priorities
4. Implementation
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T ime Hor izon
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Fores ight : D i fferent methods address d i fferent quest ions
present
probable futures
Preferred futures
Possible futures
Visions Where do we want to go?
What may happen?
What is the potential of the present?
How to get there?...
How to be prepared?...
What are our possibilities and choices?
Where are we now?
What are chances?
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Chances
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T ime Hor izon
from
perspectives
different
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for future developments
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use creativity methods
http://www.google.de/imgres?imgurl=http://thelucidplanet.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/creativity.jpg&imgrefurl=http://thelucidplanet.com/riding-your-flow-8-steps-for-enhancing-your-creativity-and-productivity/&h=1536&w=1536&tbnid=s3TJLJqKfUaclM:&zoom=1&tbnh=122&tbnw=122&usg=__Cz1xwzbqAkg3PH9WhhDHPhG2Xek=&docid=I7ESwuWtvhhrxM
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emsaal.itcilo.org
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trends: ongoing, existing, but often overlooked
what is new – for you? Others may already know it…
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Limits
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Family Robot Jibo (myjibo.com) http://www.blickamabend.ch/digital/ bald-realitaet-der-soziale-roboter-fuer- zuhause-id2995202.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Honda_ASIMO.jpg#file
Honda ASIMO
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binfind.com
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Major limit
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• often: a lot of objectives • sometimes: even contradictory • Hidden Agendas
impactlearning.com
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forbes.com
photo: Cuhls
ALTERNSFORSCHUNG SOCIETYANDAGING
UnivHeidelberg
[9]
UnivBremen
[6]
UnivMunich
[6]
UnivGottingen
[5]
UnivRostock
[5]Charite
UnivMed
Berlin[4]
TechUniv
Munich[4]
MaxPlanck
InstDemog
Res[4]
HumboldtUniv[3]
UnivBonn[3]
UnivErlangenNurnberg
[3]
UnivJena[3]
UnivMainz
[3]
FreeUniv
Berlin[2]
MaxPlanck
InstMedRes[2]
UnivWurzburg
[2]
UnivZurich
[2]
NBER[2]
DIAL[2]
SiemensAG[2]
TechUniv
Berlin[2]
TUKaiserslautern
[2] UnivDusseldorf
[2]
UnivFreiburg
[2]UnivHalle
Wittenberg[2]
UnivHamburg
[2]
UnivKarlsruhe
[2]
UnivKlinikumTubingen
[2]
UnivKonstanz
[2]
UnivMannheim
[2]
UnivMarburg
[2]
UnivRegensburg
[2]
FraunhoferIZM[2]
UnivKlinikumFreiburg
[1]
UnivKansas
[1]
KerckhoffInst[1]
UnivHelsinki
[1]
JointInstNuclRes[1]
CRC[1]
JenLabGmbH
[1]
UnivGothenburg
[1]
ISS[1]
UnivFlorence
[1]
UnivDortmund
[1]
UnivCopenhagen
Hosp[1]
IntevatGmbH
[1]
UnivClin
Munster[1]
UnivCardiffWales
[1]
UnivCalifSan
Francisco[1]
UnivBundeswehr
Munchen[1]
InstStudyLabor
[1]
EvangelHeimstiftung
TheolEth[1]
UnivAugenklin
Bonn[1]
UnivArizona
[1]
UnivAlbertoHurtado
[1]
UnileverCorpRes[1]
IFAM[1]
TsingHuaUniv[1]
HuddingeUnivHosp
[1]
DukeUniv[1]
SyrianCtr
TobaccoStudies
[1]
SocialSciResCtr[1]
ShellSolarGmbH
[1]
SERIDAServRegInvest
DesarrolloAgroalimentar
[1]
SachsInd
Museum[1]
ReferatStationareAltenhilfe
[1]
ParacelsusMedUniv[1]
OttoVon
GuerickeUniv[1]
NorfolkNorwich
UnivHosp
[1]
NIKHEF[1]
NewYorkBloodCtr[1]
NestlePurina
PetCareCo[1]
GermanAerosp
Ctr[1]
NatlInst
StandTechnol
[1]
NatlBurEconRes[1]
MuseeNatlHistNat[1]
MicrodropTechnol
Muehlenweg143[1]
MetalorTechnol
SA[1]
MedUniv
Lubeck[1]
ArbeiterErsatzkassen
VerbandEV[1]
DalianUniv
Technol[1]
MaxPlanck
InstEvolutionaryAnthropol
[1]
MaxPlanck
InstDemographic
Res[1]
CurtinUniv
Technol[1]
MassachusettsGenHosp
[1]
MassGenInst
NeurodegeneratDis[1]
LohmannBirkner
HlthCare
ConsultingGmbH
[1]
LMUMunchen
[1]
LeibnizInst
FreshwaterEcol
InlandFisheries
[1]
LCGBiosci
[1]
UnivStuttgart
[1]
VetPathol
Associates[1]
KlinikumGrosshadern
[1]
KarlFranzens
UnivGraz[1]
UnivTexas
[1]
AlbertEinstein
CollMed[1]
IRD[1]
IntUniv
Bremen[1]
InstTheoret
ExptPhys[1]
ClinUrol
RheinRuhr[1]
InstHigh
EnergyPhys[1]
ETH[1]
EssenUniv[1]
VerbandAngestellten
KrankenkassenEV[1]
ChemnitzUniv
Technol[1]
AuburnUniv[1]
HospSantaMaria
[1]
HopLariboisiere
[1]
HarvardUniv[1]
HahnMeitner
InstBerlinGmbH
[1]
GSF[1]
GESifoGmbH
[1]
DessauMedCtr[1]
GeorgetownUniv[1]
BocconiUniv[1]
CtrSuisseRechSci[1]
FraunhoferInst
BiomedTechnol
[1]
CtrGenomRegulat
[1]
UnivS
BohemiaCeske
Budejovice[1]
VrijeUniv
Amsterdam[1]
UnivTubingen
[1]
AcadSci
CzechRepublic
[1]
AxaronBiosci
[1]
UnivUtrecht
[1]
UnivOsnabruck
[1]
MaxPlanck
InstMetRes[1]
YamanashiMedUniv[1]
DIWBERLIN
[1]
DIW[1]
ArgonneNatlLab[1]
DESY[1]
AmaxaGmbH
[1]
UnivMemphis
[1]
UnivNewcastle
[1]UnivOslo[1]
UnivUtah[1]
UnivPeshawar
[1]
MatResInst[1]
UnivRoma
LaSapienza
[1]
UnivMissouri
[1]
UnivNew
Orleans[1]
UnivNewcastle
UponTyne[1]
UnivPenn[1]
UnivKlinikumMunster
[1]
UnivMunster
[1]
UnivOviedo
[1]
from BMBF Foresight Cycle I
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- wrong est imations: Who knows i f we are
r ight? When we know, it i s sometimes to
late… path dependencies…
- even the best scient ists overest imate
their results (see Delphi surveys)
- see Kahnemann/ Tversky
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Future topics evaluated for
14 start fields
Topics, actors, recommended
action
in 7 new forms of future fields
2nd report
November 2007
%
1st report
Research
Workshop of
experts
Monitoring 1st
wave
Online
survey
Analysis of
potential:
Actors and topics
3rd report
%
%
% % % %
% % % %
% %
%
% %
%
% % %
% %
%
in 14 start
fields
Differentiated
evaluation
Synopsis of
researches
Monitoring 2nd
wave
… … …
Selection according
to criteria, re-
clustering
June 2009
%
%
%
%
%
%
… … …
… … …
… … …
… … …
… … …
… … …
… … …
Mapping of future
topics
First re-clustering
Topic searches BMBF Foresight
we have to keep it simple
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We do not ask what we do not know…
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and white spots…
schnittpunkt2012.blogspot.com
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Additional aspects from more recent foresight theory
Confirming trend bias
Overconfidence
Over-prediction
“end of history illusion”
Filters cannot be eliminated but opened up
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Education/ Training/ Awareness-rais ing/
Learn Foresight and understand its l imits
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Fores ight was concept iona l i sed to s tep back/ out of the da i l y bus iness
And think imagine dream
consider barriers consider chances…
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And change something make it happen
within your limits!
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Sorry
Foresight is nothing for couch potatoes or Business As Usual
Activity needed
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We cannot so lve a l l prob lems with Fores ight / Futures Research
Ask the right questions!
…and ask the question right…
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Anthropomimetischer Robotertorso - ECCEROBOT
Have a bright future!
For further information: Dr. Kerstin Cuhls [email protected]