the planner’s nigeria+hygiene disposables (10.may.10)

NIGERIA… “Opportuni1es”

The Flow

•  A Snapshot of Global Outlook

•  Nigeria – A Bird’s Eye View

•  Kaleidoscope – The Youth Market

Global Outlook

2010 -‐ Outlook

•  The good news about 2010 is that the world will (beJer) emerge from recession and post-‐crisis economic landscape will become clearer.

•  Businesses…..can at least begin to focus on strategies for future growth, rather than tacPcs for short-‐term survival.

•  ……there will be an increasing emphasis on emerging markets, many of which will power ahead.

•  It is a year for businesses to be ambi1ous….not withdraw…..

What exactly is on their mind???

NIGERIA Green White Gold

Demographics

Land Space: 923,768 Sq Km (slightly more than twice the size

of California)

EsEmated PopulaEon : 152 Million (2009)

• Over 70% of popula/on is under

30 years

Media Age: 18

Pop. Growth Rate: 2.83%

Urban Growth Rate: 5.3%

Industrial Growth: 2.4%

AGE GRPPopulation both sexes

Population Male

Population Female

Percent Both

Sexes Percent

MalePercent Female

Total (All Ages) 128,765,768 65,108,289 63,657,479 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%0 - 4 21,304,234 10,731,929 10,572,305 16.5% 16.5% 16.6%5 - 9 17,685,859 8,911,126 8,774,733 13.7% 13.7% 13.8%

10 - 14 15,518,616 7,822,125 7,696,491 12.1% 12.0% 12.1%15 - 19 13,615,584 6,867,512 6,748,072 10.6% 10.5% 10.6%20 - 24 12,201,811 6,167,626 6,034,185 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%25 - 29 10,284,594 5,235,608 5,048,986 8.0% 8.0% 7.9%30 - 34 8,135,658 4,205,987 3,929,671 6.3% 6.5% 6.2%35 - 39 6,634,150 3,427,358 3,206,792 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%40 - 44 5,488,984 2,814,948 2,674,036 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%45 - 49 4,502,344 2,314,317 2,188,027 3.5% 3.6% 3.4%50 - 54 3,774,988 1,908,069 1,866,919 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%55 - 59 3,216,615 1,604,919 1,611,696 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%60 - 64 2,472,275 1,222,647 1,249,628 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%65 - 69 1,774,303 860,160 914,143 1.4% 1.3% 1.4%70 - 74 1,164,689 554,218 610,471 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%75 - 79 642,574 300,605 341,969 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

80+ 348,490 159,135 189,355 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%

Addressable Urban Market

of 58m by 2010 @ 2.4%

Growth Rate

40.1% or 51m Addressable

Market

Over 70% or 90.6m below

30Yrs!

Source : U.S. Census Bureau, International Database – 2008Est.

Demographics Over 70% of populaEon is under 30 years

Socio-‐Economic Profile

LSM Group % Household Monthly Income %

LSM 1 (E) 3.7 Less than N5,000 0.6

LSM 2 (E) 4.5 5,000 – 20,000 9.8

LSM 3 (D) 1.7 20,000 – 40,000 19.3

LSM 4 (D) 29.4 40,000 – 60,000 10.9

LSM 5 (D) 15.7 60,000 – 80,000 5.4

LSM 6 (C2) 17.5 80,000 – 100,000 2.3

LSM 7 (C2) 8.2 100,000 – 140,000 0.9

LSM 8 (C2) 5.8 140,000 – 200,000 0.7

LSM 9 (C1) 5.9 200,000+ 7.1

LSM 10 (C1) 2.9 Refused/Unknown 43.0

LSM 11 (B) 3.9

LSM 12 (A) 1.0

The addressable market for the target category is the C1C2D, with an average income of between NGN50, 000 – NGN250, 000.

This is an optimistic market for uptake of disposables, especially hygiene based products.

A Bird’s Eye View •  Economy is largely agrarian, with around 60% of Nigerians

working in the agricultural sector.

•  InflaPon rate was maintained on single digit for 24 months (Oct 2006 – Sept 2008).

•  It has since then grown as high as 13.4% (July 2009). •  The Consumer Price Index as at July 2009, ranges between

N180.00 – N240.00.

•  Nigeria has one of the fastest growing telecomms market in the major emerging market (i.e. MTN, Zain, Globacom & E/salat)

The Emerging Consumer

Psychologically…..

Time Magazine (Dec 2008) rated Nigerians as the happiest people on the Earth…the boundless opPmism in the face of economic instability is almost mythical in nature.

FASHION

MUSIC

Nigerian Music Stars are dominating the African Music Scene and exporting Nigerian music to the rest of the World

MUSIC Music has now become a great tool for shaping consumer outlook and behaviour across Nigerian.

MINIPRENEURS

Technology is enabling a new breed of entrepreneurs

MIY | MAKE IT YOURSELF

IT and Telecommunications are empowering new knowledge creating a new breed of ‘producers’, creating Open Innovation

Evolu1on of Consumer Needs

Experiences

Services

Goods

Commodities

Render

Improve

Control

Supply

Authenticity

Quality

Costs

Availability

Economic Output

Business Imperative

Consumer Sensibility

Source: Joseph Pine, TED Talks 2009

Rendering Authen1city

This above all: to thine own self be true, And it must follow, as the night the day, Thou canst not then be false to any man.

- William Shakespeare

WHEN YOUR Brand Truth MARRIES YOUR Brand Promise, THEY GIVE BIRTH TO CONSUMER ENGAGEMENT/RELEVANCE.

Rendering Authen1city

IS what it says it is

Real Real

Fake Real Fake Fake

Real Fake

Is NOT what it says it is

IS true to itself Is NOT true to itself

Ideal Positioning

A Look at the Hygiene Disposables (HD) Market

Hygiene Disposables

Feminine Care

Baby Care

Menstrual Pads

Facial Wipes

Baby Diapers

Baby Wipes

Panty Liners

A market defined by the need to maintain personal hygiene in a

decent manner…

The Players…

Tampons & Other Brands

A Snapshot of PossibiliPes •  The combined market for Hygiene Disposables (HD) – covering Feminine Care and Baby Care – also have significant potenPal.

•  The market for Feminine Care is the key market driving HD in Nigeria and it has grown between 2001-‐2006, at an average annual rate of 14.1%.

•  Presently the leading player in the market is Procter & Gamble (P&G), followed by Johnson & Johnson and Kimberly-‐Clark CorporaPon .

Source: Datamonitor Report on Feminine Care in Nigeria, 2009

Birth rate: 36.65 births/1,000 population (2009 est.)

Source: CIA World Factbook, Feb 2010

Year Birth rate Rank Percent Change Date of Information

2003 38.75 30 2003 est.

2004 40.65 21 4.90 % 2004 est.

2005 40.65 22 0.00 % 2005 est.

2006 40.43 21 -0.54 % 2006 est.

2007 40.2 20 -0.57 % 2007 est.

2008 37.23 31 -7.39 % 2008 est.

2009 36.65 30 -1.56 % 2009 est.

2010 36.65 28 0.00 % 2009 est.


Total fertility rate (TFR): 4.91 children born/woman (2009 est.)

Approx. 5 kids/female, in a lifetime


Year Total fertility rate Rank Percent Change Date of Information

2003 5.4 30 2003 est.

2004 5.53 24 2.41 % 2004 est.

2005 5.53 23 0.00 % 2005 est.

2006 5.49 23 -0.72 % 2006 est.

2007 5.45 22 -0.73 % 2007 est.

2008 5.01 32 -8.07 % 2008 est.

2009 4.91 32 -2.00 % 2009 est.

2010 4.91 31 0.00 % 2009 est.



Population Male

Population Female

Percent Both

Sexes Percent

MalePercent Female

Total (All Ages) 128,765,768 65,108,289 63,657,479 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%0 - 4 21,304,234 10,731,929 10,572,305 16.5% 16.5% 16.6%5 - 9 17,685,859 8,911,126 8,774,733 13.7% 13.7% 13.8%

10 - 14 15,518,616 7,822,125 7,696,491 12.1% 12.0% 12.1%15 - 19 13,615,584 6,867,512 6,748,072 10.6% 10.5% 10.6%20 - 24 12,201,811 6,167,626 6,034,185 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%25 - 29 10,284,594 5,235,608 5,048,986 8.0% 8.0% 7.9%30 - 34 8,135,658 4,205,987 3,929,671 6.3% 6.5% 6.2%35 - 39 6,634,150 3,427,358 3,206,792 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%40 - 44 5,488,984 2,814,948 2,674,036 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%45 - 49 4,502,344 2,314,317 2,188,027 3.5% 3.6% 3.4%50 - 54 3,774,988 1,908,069 1,866,919 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%55 - 59 3,216,615 1,604,919 1,611,696 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%60 - 64 2,472,275 1,222,647 1,249,628 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%65 - 69 1,774,303 860,160 914,143 1.4% 1.3% 1.4%70 - 74 1,164,689 554,218 610,471 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%75 - 79 642,574 300,605 341,969 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

80+ 348,490 159,135 189,355 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Database

Huge Market

Potential

With a fairly high

frequency of usage…

Approx 59% of Females

or 38m between

10 - 49Yrs!


Demographics – Feminine Care Market


Population Male

Population Female

Percent Both

Sexes Percent

MalePercent Female

Total (All Ages) 128,765,768 65,108,289 63,657,479 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%0 - 4 21,304,234 10,731,929 10,572,305 16.5% 16.5% 16.6%5 - 9 17,685,859 8,911,126 8,774,733 13.7% 13.7% 13.8%

10 - 14 15,518,616 7,822,125 7,696,491 12.1% 12.0% 12.1%15 - 19 13,615,584 6,867,512 6,748,072 10.6% 10.5% 10.6%20 - 24 12,201,811 6,167,626 6,034,185 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%25 - 29 10,284,594 5,235,608 5,048,986 8.0% 8.0% 7.9%30 - 34 8,135,658 4,205,987 3,929,671 6.3% 6.5% 6.2%35 - 39 6,634,150 3,427,358 3,206,792 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%40 - 44 5,488,984 2,814,948 2,674,036 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%45 - 49 4,502,344 2,314,317 2,188,027 3.5% 3.6% 3.4%50 - 54 3,774,988 1,908,069 1,866,919 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%55 - 59 3,216,615 1,604,919 1,611,696 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%60 - 64 2,472,275 1,222,647 1,249,628 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%65 - 69 1,774,303 860,160 914,143 1.4% 1.3% 1.4%70 - 74 1,164,689 554,218 610,471 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%75 - 79 642,574 300,605 341,969 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

80+ 348,490 159,135 189,355 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Database

Huge Market

Potential

@ 2 average births

per female = 42m

(optimistic)


Demographics – Baby Care Market

Approx 33% of Females

or 21m between

20 - 44Yrs!

•  At a Pme when the market was dominated by 350gm can by Peak Milk, the challenge was one of access.

•  A large percentage of consumers could not access milk, due the level of their disposable income.

•  Promasidor solved the problem of access, through innovaPve packaging strategy.

•  This enabled them to not only enter the market, they also grew it.

A Possible Entry Strategy… (A Case Study of Cowbell)

•  In this Hygiene Disposables market, accessibility is also an issue.

•  An untapped market base, the C1C2D, are not able to conveniently access products in this category.

•  The entry strategy here should be built on Pricing combined with Top-‐of-‐the-‐Standard posiPoning.

•  This will give the confidence derived from Access Quality.

A Possible Entry Strategy… (Learnings from Cowbell)

Let’s Discuss….