the persistence of current account balances and its determinants: the implications for global...

7/30/2019 The Persistence of Current Account Balances and its Determinants: The Implications for Global Rebalancing

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@FNH Tg~bhcd [`{a~ Za~haz

Vma [a~zhzvacja ge Jq~~acv@jjgqcv N`i`cjaz `cf hvzFava~ohc`cvz;0>

@zh`c Fauaig{oacv N`cb Hczvhvqva


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Vma Tg~bhcd [`{a~ za~haz hz ` jgcvhcq`vhgc ge vma eg~oa~ix còaf Fhzjqzzhgc [`{a~ za~haz2 vmacqona~hcd ge vma {`{a~z jgcvhcqaf thvmgqv hcva~~q{vhgc g~ jm`cda# @FNHz tg~bhcd {`{a~z~aeiajv hchvhì hfa`z gc ` vg{hj `cf `~a {gzvaf gcihca eg~ fhzjqzzhgc# @FNH acjgq~`daz ~a`fa~z vg{gzv vmah~ jgooacvz gc vma o`hc {`da eg~ a`jm tg~bhcd {`{a~ -dhuac hc vma jhv`vhgc naigt(#Zgoa tg~bhcd {`{a~z o`x fauaig{ hcvg gvma~ eg~oz ge {qnihj`vhgc#

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[ia`za jgcv`jv vma `qvmg~ eg~ hceg~o`vhgc `ngqv vmhz {`{a~#

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Vma uhatz a}{~azzaf hc vmhz {`{a~ `~a vma uhatz ge vma `qvmg~z `cf fg cgv cajazz`~hix~aeiajv vma uhatz g~ {gihjhaz ge @FNH) vma @zh`c Fauaig{oacv N`cb -@FN() hvz Ng`~f geFh~ajvg~z) g~ vma dgua~coacvz vmax ~a{~azacv# @FNH fgaz cgv dq`~`cvaa vma `jjq~`jx gevma f`v` hcjiqfaf hc vmhz {`{a~ `cf `jja{vz cg ~az{gczhnhihvx eg~ `cx jgczapqacjaz gevmah~ qza# Va~ohcgigdx qzaf o`x cgv cajazz`~hix na jgczhzvacv thvm @FN geehjhì va~oz#

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>;0> @zh`c Fauaig{oacv N`cb Hczvhvqva


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@FNH Tg~bhcd [`{a~ 6;; Jigta~ `cf Hvg

@nzv~`jv

Vmhz {`{a~ a}òhcaz vma zv`vhzvhjì c`vq~a ge vma {a~zhzvacjx ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz `cf hvzfava~ohc`cvz# Thvm vma `zzqo{vhgc vm`v zv`vhgc`~x jq~~acv `jjgqcv za~haz aczq~az vma igcd/~qcnqfdav jgczv~`hcv tmhia jgqcv~haz o`x a}{a~hacja igjì cgc/zv`vhgc`~hvx hc jq~~acv `jjgqcvnì`cjaz) ta a}òhca vma fxcòhjz ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz `j~gzz ` {`cai ge 4; jgqcv~haz#

Ta ehcf vm`v gcja ta ìigt jq~~acv `jjgqcv za~haz vg v`ba ~adhoa zmhevz nx `{{ixhcd ` O`~bgu/zthvjmhcd -OZ( {~gjazz) ta `~a `nia cgv gcix vg ~alajv vma qchv ~ggv cqii mx{gvmazhz eg~ ` oqjmhcj~a`zaf cqona~ ge jgqcv~haz vm`c thvm zv`cf`~f ihca`~ qchv ~ggv vazvz) nqv ìzg vg hfacvhexcgv`nia j~gzz/jgqcv~x fheea~acjaz hc vma vhohcd `cf fq~`vhgc ge zv`vhgc`~x `cf igjìix cgc/zv`vhgc`~x ~adhoaz# @~oaf thvm vma zv~qjvq~ì n~a`b f`vaz vma OZ/@FE vazvhcd {~guhfaz) tahcuazvhd`va vma fava~ohc`cvz ge vma fheea~acv fad~aaz ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja# Ta ehcfvm`v aoa~dhcd o`~bav jgqcv~haz thvm eh}af a}jm`cda ~`va ~adhoa g~ jgqcv~haz thvm d~a`va~ehc`cjhì g{accazz `~a og~a ihbaix vg acva~ ` ~`cfgo tìb ~adhoa) tmhjm hz og~a auhfacv ògcdjgqcv~haz thvm jq~~acv `jjgqcv faehjhvz# Eg~ jgqcv~haz thvm ìi iauaiz ge hcjgoa) v~`fa g{accazzfaj~a`zaz vma ihbaihmggf ge acva~hcd vma ~`cfgo tìb ~adhoa) {~azqo`nix ~afqjhcd vma jgzv gejq~~acv `jjgqcv `flqzvoacvz# @izg) jgqcv~haz thvm nqfdav faehjhvz vacf vg zv`x hc zv`vhgc`~x~adhoaz) zg fg vmgza thvm jq~~acv `jjgqcv faehjhvz) ho{ixhcd vm`v o`~bavz eg~ja vmaza jgqcv~haz

vg ~anì`cja vmah~ jq~~acv `jjgqcv honì`cjaz# Tmac ta a}òhca vma fava~ohc`cvz ge u`~hgqzfad~aaz ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja) vma vx{a ge a}jm`cda ~`va ~adhoaz cg igcda~ èeajvz vmaa}vacv ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja# Mgtaua~) jgqcv~haz thvm d~a`va~ v~`fa g~ ehc`cjhìg{accazz) g~ vmgza thvm ogqcvhcd {~azzq~a e~go ~aì a}jm`cda ~`va ohzìhdcoacv vacf vg mùa` zoìia~ fad~aa ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja tmhia hcva~c`vhgcì ~aza~uaz mgifhcd zaaoz vgjgcv~hnqva vg ` i`~da~ fad~aa ge {a~zhzvacja#

LAI Ji`zzhehj`vhgc< E:>) E60


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Jgcvacvz

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:

0# HCV^GFQJVHGC

Zhcja vma n~a`bgqv ge vma dignì ehc`cjhì j~hzhz hc >;;= `cf vma Aq~g{a`c fanv j~hzhz vm`vegiigtaf) zqzv`hc`nhihvx ge jgqcv~x fanv m`z naac `c ho{g~v`cv {gihjx jgczhfa~`vhgc eg~ {gihjxo`ba~z) az{ajhìix vmgza hc fauaig{af ajgcgohaz# Jgcja~cz ge fanv zqzv`hc`nhihvx) gevac

ì`~oaf nx fgtcd~`faz ge g~ z{ajqi`vhua `vv`jbz gc dgua~coacv ngcfz) mùa o`fa o`cx`fu`cjaf ajgcgohaz) hcjiqfhcd vma Qchvaf Zv`vaz -QZ( `cf ` cqona~ ge zgqvma~c Aq~g{a`cjgqcv~haz) e`ja zaua~a jgczv~`hcvz gc ehzjì {gihjx faz{hva vma q~dacv caaf eg~ i`~da zvhoqiqza}{acfhvq~az# Qc`nia vg oaav vmgza jgczv~`hcvz) zgoa jgqcv~haz mùa ì~a`fx zgqdmv gqvhcva~c`vhgcì n`hi/gqvz vg aczq~a zgiuacjx g~ zmg~v/va~o ihpqhfhvx# Xav) tmhia vmaza jgqcv~hazzv~qddia vg oaav vmah~ fanv gnihd`vhgcz) gvma~z `~a ò`zzhcd zùhcdz vg zacf `n~g`f#

Vma qcfa~jq~~acv ge vma dignì j~hzhz `cf vma fanv j~hzhz ge `fu`cjaf ajgcgohaz hz vma zv`va gedignì honì`cjaz{~geihd`jx ge zaua~ì `fu`cjaf ajgcgohaz) hcjiqfhcd vma QZ) m`z naacehc`cjaf nx a}jazz zùhcdz ge aoa~dhcd o`~bav ajgcgohaz) ogzv cgv`nix vma [ag{iaz â{qnihjge Jmhc` -[^J() `cf ghi a}{g~vhcd jgqcv~haz# Hv hz vma honì`cjaf j`{hvì eigtz vm`v ac`niaf zgoajgqcv~haz vg ~qc {a~zhzvacv `cf o`zzhua jq~~acv `jjgqcv faehjhvz) ehc`cjaf nx {a~zhzvacv jq~~acv`jjgqcv zq~{iqzaz ge gvma~ jgqcv~haz# âza`~jma~z mùa hcuazvhd`vaf vma j`qzaz ge vma dignìhonì`cjaz -zqjm `z Jmhcc av ì# >;00( `cf egqcf vm`v o`cx e`jvg~z `~a hcv~hj`vaix hcva~vthcaf)j~a`vhcd q{/mhii eigtz ge a}jazz zùhcdz e~go fauaig{hcd jgqcv~haz thvm mhdm ~`vaz ge ~avq~c vg~hjm jgqcv~haz thvm igt ~`vaz ge ~avq~c nqv thvm og~a fauaig{af ehc`cjhì o`~bavz -vma Iqj`z{`~`fg}(# Mgtaua~) vma dignì ehc`cjhì j~hzhz hc >;;=;8 `cf vma Aq~g{a`c fanv j~hzhz mùa~auaìaf vm`v vma tg~if ajgcgox zv`cfz gc ` faihj`va nì`cjhcd `jv thvm ~ad`~f vg j`{hvì eigtz2tmhia ` jm`cda hc vma tg~if ajgcgohj jgcfhvhgcz j`c jm`cda vma fh~ajvhgcz ge j`{hvì eigtzzqffacix) {gzzhnix fhz~q{vhcd ~aì ajgcgohaz) {a~zhzvacv j`{hvì eigtz gc vma gvma~ m`cf o`x {qvvma tg~if ajgcgox hc ` j~hzhz/{~gca zhvq`vhgc `bhc vg vma gca hc vma {~a/j~hzhz {a~hgf# Dhuac zqjm` e~`dhia acuh~gcoacv) a}òhchcd vma jgqcv~x z{ajhehj fava~ohc`cvz ge {a~zhzvacv jq~~acv `jjgqcvfaehjhvz g~ zq~{iqzaz j`c {~guhfa ` faa{a~ qcfa~zv`cfhcd ge vma dignì honì`cjaz `z taii `z vmaehc`cjhcd ge jgqcv~haz thvm o`zzhua fanv#

Vma ~ajacv zgua~ahdc fanv hzzqaz `~a nx cg oa`cz vma eh~zv vhoa j`{hvì eigtz mùa ~ajahuafcgv`nia `vvacvhgc hc vma hcva~c`vhgcì o`j~gajgcgohjz ihva~`vq~a# Ta bcgt e~go vma ihva~`vq~avm`v zgua~ahdc fanv `cf jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacjx `~a azzacvhìix ngvm zhfaz ge ` jghc# Vm`v hz)vmag~avhjìix) jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz ge ` jgqcv~x zmgqif augiua hc zqjm ` t`x vm`v hv oaavzvma igcd/~qc hcva~vao{g~ì c`vhgcì nqfdav jgczv~`hcv -I^NJ(# Hc ~aea~acja vg vma Eaifzvahc `cfMg~hgb` {q||ia -08=;() V`xig~ ->;;>( `~dqaz vm`v vma I^NJ ho{ihaz vm`v zùhcdz `cf hcuazvoacvoqzv na mhdmix jg~~ai`vaf `z jgqcv~haz `{{~g`jm igcd/~qc zva`fx/zv`va# Vmhz fgaz cgv {~ajiqfazmg~v/~qc fauh`vhgcz e~go vma I^NJ) mgtaua~) zhcja vmaza j`c na j`qzaf nx o`j~gajgcgohj`cf hczvhvqvhgcì {gihjx jm`cdaz ~ai`vaf vg zùhcdz `cf hcuazvoacv zqjm `z j`{hvì o`~bavihna~ìh|`vhgcz#

Vma zv`vhgc`~hvx ge vma jq~~acv `jjgqcv vg d~gzz fgoazvhj {~gfqjv -DF[( ~`vhg hz ` zqeehjhacvjgcfhvhgc eg~ vma I^NJ vg mgif) `cf o`cx ~aza`~jma~z mùa jgceh~oaf hv -V~am`c `cf Tìzm)

08802 V`xig~) >;;>(# Vmhz uhat hcugiuaz ho{g~v`cv ajgcgohj ho{ihj`vhgcz# Eh~zvix) vma ~azqivz gezqjm ao{h~hjì a}a~jhzaz mai{ vg vazv vma uìhfhvx ge u`~hgqz hcva~vao{g~ì) ~a{~azacv`vhua `dacvogfaiz# Qcfa~ vma `zzqo{vhgc ge {a~eajv j`{hvì ognhihvx `cf jgczqo{vhgc/zoggvmhcd namùhg~)vma hcva~vao{g~ì nqfdav jgczv~`hcv ho{ihaz vm`v vma jq~~acv `jjgqcv vg DF[ nì`cja oqzv nazv`vhgc`~x# Zajgcfix) `z V~am`c `cf Tìzm -0880( zqddazv) jq~~acv `jjgqcv zv`vhgc`~hvx fh~ajvixho{ihaz vm`v a}va~cì fanv hz ehchva `cf zqzv`hc`nia# Hc gvma~ tg~fz) jgqcv~haz `~a zv~hjvix ngqcf nxvma hcva~vao{g~ì nqfdav jgczv~`hcvz) `cf vma {~azqoaf i`jb ge [gc|h dòaz aczq~azhcva~c`vhgcì hcuazvg~z eg~ vma ~a{`xoacv ge vma fanv# Ge jgq~za) vma ~aìhvx ta e`ja vaiiz qz vm`v


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6

vm`v o`x cgv na vma j`za) `v ia`zv hc vma zmg~v vhoa mg~h|gc# Jgqcv~haz fg e`ja vma ~hzb ge fae`qiv)`z ta gnza~uaf hc vma fauaig{hcd tg~if hc vma 08=;z `cf 088;z `cf `~a gnza~uhcd cgt hcAq~g{a#

Hv hz fheehjqiv vg f~`t jgcjiqzhgcz gc jq~~acv `jjgqcv zqzv`hc`nhihvx e~go vma {`zv ihva~`vq~a)mgtaua~) naj`qza hv hz eqii ge hcjgczhzvacv) g~ hcjgcjiqzhua `v nazv) auhfacja gc vma zqzv`hc`nhihvx

g~ zv`vhgc`~x ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz# Vmhz o`x `~hza) hc {`~v) e~go hcjgczhzvacjhaz hc vazvhcdoavmgfgigdhaz# Mgtaua~) hv o`x ìzg ~a{~azacv ` e`hiq~a vg `{{~g{~h`vaix fhzvhcdqhzm igcd/~qczqzv`hc`nhihvx e~go zmg~v/~qc fxcòhjz# @z V`xig~ ->;;>( `~dqaz) auac thvmhc vma jgcva}v ge vmaI^NJ) jgqcv~haz o`x ~qc qczqzv`hc`nia jq~~acv `jjgqcv honì`cjaz eg~ zmg~v {a~hgfz ge vhoatmhia cgv cajazz`~hix uhgi`vhcd vma igcd/~qc jgczv~`hcv# Macja) hv hz ho{g~v`cv vg fhzvhcdqhzm igcd/~qc zqzv`hc`nhihvx e~go zmg~v/~qc fauh`vhgcz e~go vma hcva~vao{g~ì jgczv~`hcv) `cf cgv vg eìzaix~alajv igcd/~qc jq~~acv `jjgqcv zqzv`hc`nhihvx n`zaf gc zgoa auhfacja ge zmg~v/~qc cgc/zv`vhgc`~hvx ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz#

Gcja jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz `~a egqcf vg na zv`vhgc`~x) ahvma~ dignìix g~ igjìix) vma fad~aage jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacjx j`c u`~x cgv lqzv `j~gzz jgqcv~haz nqv ìzg gua~ vhoa# @z ta thiizmgt i`va~ gc) hc vma {a~hgf ia`fhcd vg vma ehc`cjhì j~hzhz ge >;;=;8) ta thvcazzaf ngvm jq~~acv`jjgqcv zq~{iqz `cf faehjhv jgqcv~haz a}{a~hacja {a~zhzvacv jq~~acv `jjgqcv honì`cjaz#

[a~zhzvacv jq~~acv `jjgqcv honì`cjaz fg cgv mùa vg ia`f hooafh`vaix vg vma pqazvhgc gea}va~cì fanv zqzv`hc`nhihvx naj`qza vma z{aaf ge ~aua~zhgc j`c fheea~ `j~gzz jgqcv~haz `cf vhoa{a~hgfz fa{acfhcd gc vmah~ o`j~gajgcgohj {gihjhaz `cf gvma~ hczvhvqvhgcì jm`~`jva~hzvhjz#âjacvix) vma [^Jz {a~zhzvacv jq~~acv `jjgqcv zq~{iqz `cf hvz pq`zh/eh}af a}jm`cda ~`va {gihjx~`hzaz ` pqazvhgc ge tmavma~ `cf mgt a}jm`cda ~`va ~adhoaz èeajv jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacjx#Jmhcc `cf Tah -eg~vmjgohcd( mùa hcuazvhd`vaf vmhz hzzqa `cf egqcf cg zhdchehj`cv g~ zxzvao`vhj~ai`vhgczmh{ navtaac a}jm`cda ~`va ~adhoaz `cf vma fad~aa ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacjxjgcv~`~x vg ` jgoogc) `cajfgvì naihae vm`v eia}hnia a}jm`cda ~`va zmgqif ia`f vg jq~~acv`jjgqcv `flqzvoacvz# Cgv lqzv ~azv~hjvaf vg a}jm`cda ~`va ~adhoaz) hv hz ho{g~v`cv vg hcuazvhd`vatm`v bhcf ge eqcfòacvìz jgcv~hnqva vg fheea~acv fad~aaz ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacjx#

Dhuac vmhz n`jbd~gqcf) vmhz {`{a~ thii v`ba ` jigza~ iggb `v vma fxcòhjz ge jq~~acv `jjgqcvnì`cjaz thvm {`~vhjqi`~ egjqz gc vma {a~zhzvacjx ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz `cf hvzfava~ohc`cvz# Eh~zvix) ta thii ~a/a}òhca vma zv`vhgc`~hvx ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz eg~ `ngqv4; jgqcv~haz# @ cqona~ ge zv`vhgc`~hvx vazvz qzhcd zv`cf`~f ihca`~ qchv ~ggv vazvhcd {~gjafq~azjgceh~o vm`v vma vhoa za~haz ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz -`z ` zm`~a ge DF[( `~a cgv zv`vhgc`~xeg~ o`cx jgqcv~haz jgcv~`~x vg tm`v vmag~x {~afhjvz# Zajgcfix) ta thii hcuazvhd`va tmavma~ vmai`jb ge zv`vhzvhjì auhfacja eg~ vma zv`vhgc`~hvx ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz hz f~huac nx vmaa}hzvacja ge ~adhoa zmhevz hc vma vhoa za~haz ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz) egiigthcd ` ~ajacvzv~`cf ge vma ihva~`vq~a vm`v vazvz zv~qjvq~ì n~a`bz hc jq~~acv `jjgqcv fxcòhjz -V`xig~ >;;>2^`xn`qfh av ì# >;;62 Jmac >;00(# I`zvix) ta thii a}òhca tmavma~ vma {~gn`nhihvx ge acva~hcd `cgc/zv`vhgc`~x jq~~acv `jjgqcv ~adhoaz `cf vma fad~aa ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja ògcdfheea~acv ~adhoaz j`c na a}{i`hcaf nx u`~h`vhgcz) ngvm j~gzz/zajvhgcì `cf gua~/vhoa) hc {gihjhaz)hczvhvqvhgcz) `cf o`j~gajgcgohj eqcfòacvìz ge vma jgqcv~haz#

Vma ~ao`hcfa~ ge vmhz {`{a~ hz `z egiigtz# Zajvhgc > {~guhfaz ` {~aihohc`~x `cìxzhz gc vma{a~zhzvacjx ge jq~~acv `jjgqcvz# Vmhz zajvhgc ìzg n~haeix ~auhatz vma vmag~x ge jq~~acv `jjgqcvnì`cjaz `cf vma igcd/~qc hcva~vao{g~ì nqfdav jgczv~`hcv# Hc Zajvhgc :) ta jgcfqjv ` za~haz geqchv ~ggv vazvz ao{igxhcd jgcuacvhgcì ihca`~ ogfaiz# Hc vmhz zajvhgc) ta ìzg ao{igx vmaO`~bgu/Zthvjmhcd -OZ( zv`vhgc`~hvx `cìxzhz `cf zmgt vm`v ta ~alajv vma qchv ~ggv eg~ ` i`~da~cqona~ ge jgqcv~haz gcja ta ìigt eg~ ~adhoa zmhevz hc vma jq~~acv `jjgqcv za~haz# Zajvhgc 6nqhifz gc vma OZ ~azqivz vg a}òhca vma fava~ohc`cvz ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja# Ta{~azacv jgcjiqfhcd ~ao`~bz hc Zajvhgc 1#


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hcjiqfaz jgqcv~haz tmgza J@'X f`v` `~a ù`hi`nia eg~ `v ia`zv 0; xa`~z# @{{acfh} 0 {~guhfaz ` zqoo`~x v`nia gef`v` ù`hi`nhihvx `cf jgqcv~x iauai zqoo`~x zv`vhzvhjz# Vma o`lg~hvx ge vma pq`~va~ix gnza~u`vhgcz `~a gnv`hcaf e~govma HOE Hcva~c`vhgcì Ehc`cjhì Zv`vhzvhjz) GAJF) Aq~gZv`v) `cf F`v`zv~aò f`van`zaz `z taii `z hcfhuhfqì jacv~ìn`cbz# Hc zgoa ihohvaf j`zaz) pq`~va~ix DF[ f`v` m`z naac z{ihcaf e~go `ccqì DF[ vg hcj~a`za f`v` ù`hi`nhihvx`z igcd `z vma z{ihcaf za~haz egiigtz ù`hi`nia pq`~va~ix za~haz jigzaix#


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ta j`c gnza~ua ` ~hzhcd v~acf eg~ ngvm vma oa`c `nzgiqva uìqa `cf zv`cf`~f fauh`vhgc gejq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz# Az{ajhìix hc vma xa`~z ge dignì honì`cjaz) h#a#) vma ohf/>;;;z) tagnza~ua thfa~ j~gzz/jgqcv~x u`~h`vhgcz hc jq~~acv `jjgqcvz `z taii `z mhdma~ fad~aa gehonì`cjaz) ho{ixhcd mhdma~ fad~aaz ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacjx#

Tmhia vma ehc`cjhì j~hzhz ge >;;= zaaoz vg mùa jgcv~hnqvaf vg ~anì`cjhcd) hvz aeeajv `{{a`~z vg

na gcix vao{g~`~x) {gzzhnix zqddazvhcd vm`v vma ehc`cjhì j~hzhz fhf cgv ia`f vg jg~~ajvhgcz ge vmadignì honì`cjaz -`z hz `~dqaf hc Jmhcc av ì# >;00(# Mgtaua~) ta oqzv ìzg cgva vm`v {`~v gevma zmg~v/ihuaf ho{`jv ge vma ehc`cjhì j~hzhz gc jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz o`x na o`zbaf nx vmae`jv vm`v ta uhat jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz `z ` e~`jvhgc ge DF[2 vma j~hzhz o`x mùa zm~qcbngvm jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz `cf cgohcì DF[ thvm hvz ho{`jv {gzzhnix i`~da~ gc vma i`vva~#

Tmac ta fhuhfa gq~ zò{ia hcvg zqnd~gq{z n`zaf gc hcjgoa iauaiz g~ dagd~`{mhjì ~adhgcz)tmhjm hz fhz{i`xaf hc Ehdq~a >) ta zvhii gnza~ua vm`v ngvm vma iauaiz `cf vma zv`cf`~f fauh`vhgczge jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz ~gza hc vma i`zv faj`fa eg~ ogzv ge vma jgqcv~x d~gq{z qcvhi vman~a`bgqv ge vma >;;=;8 j~hzhz# @z o`cx ~aza`~jma~z mùa cgvaf) vma d~gq{z ge hcfqzv~hìh|afjgqcv~haz) aoa~dhcd o`~bav ajgcgohaz) `cf @zh`c ajgcgohaz mùa a}{a~hacjaf {a~zhzvacv ~hzazhc vma zh|a ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv honì`cjaz#

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Zgq~ja


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@z `cgvma~ t`x ge iggbhcd `v vma fad~aa ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja) Ehdq~a : zmgtz vmaj~gzz/jgqcv~x ùa~`da `cf zv`cf`~f fauh`vhgc ge vma @^-0( jgaeehjhacv e~go vma egiigthcd`qvg~ad~azzhua ogfai `{{ihaf vg a`jm ge gq~ zò{ia jgqcv~haz hc ` ~giihcd thcfgt ge >; pq`~va~z;;;z)mgtaua~) vma ùa~`da iauai ge {a~zhzvacja m`z naac gc ` ogfa~`vaix ~hzhcd v~acf `d`hc# Hcjgcv~`zv) vma j~gzz/jgqcv~x zv`cf`~f fauh`vhgc ge {a~zhzvacja m`z naac gc ` jxjihjìix fajihchcdv~acf zhcja hvz {a`b hc vma a`~ix 088;z) vmgqdm vma j~gzz/jgqcv~x u`~h`vhgc fgaz zaao vg mùaogfa~`vaix hcj~a`zaf hc vma ohf/>;;;z#

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Cgvaz< @ii ~ad~azzhgcz hcjiqfa jgczv`cv cf qza ` ~giihcd thcfgt ge >; pq`~va~z# Vma ehdq~a zmgtz `ccqì ua~`daz`j~gzz c qcnì`cjaf {`cai ge jgqcv~haz# @ii jgaeehjhacvz d~a`va~ vm`c gca ~a zav vg gca cf ii jgaeehjhacvz iazz vm`ccad`vhua gca ~a zav vg cad`vhua gca#

Zgq~ja


10/43


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Vmhz ehdq~a ìigtz qz vg o`ba vtg gnza~u`vhgcz# Eh~zv) vma namùhg~ ge vma @^-0( jgaeehjhacvzzv`cf`~f fauh`vhgcz jgceh~oz vma fheea~acjaz hc vma jm`cdaz ge {a~zhzvacja iauaiz `j~gzz vmajgqcv~haz hc `cx dhuac vhoa {a~hgf) zqddazvhcd hcj~a`zhcd hfhgzxcj~`vhj zmgjbz vg jgqcv~x iauai{a~zhzvacja# Zajgcf) vma ~ai`vhuaix zv`nia zv`cf`~f fauh`vhgcz hc vma i`zv vm~aa faj`faz zqddazv

vm`v jgqcv~x iauai jm`cdaz hc {a~zhzvacja `~a cgv f~huac zgiaix nx dignì e`jvg~z#>

Hc e`jv) og~a eg~oì vazvz eg~ {`~òava~ zv`nhihvx {~guhfa zq{{g~v eg~ vma {~azacja ge cgc/ihca`~hvhaz hc jq~~acv `jjgqcv fxcòhjz# Ta `{{ix vma Aiihgv/Oqiia~ ->;;5( pq`zh/igjì/iauai -PII(vazv) ` ~gnqzv {`~òava~ zv`nhihvx vazv) ìigthcd eg~ zhcdqi`~ g~ oqivh{ia zv~qjvq~ì n~a`bz)

{`~òava~ hczv`nhihvx) `cf mava~gzbaf`zvhjhvx -N`qo >;;0(#:

Vma PII vazvz vma cqii mx{gvmazhzvm`v ~ad~azzhgc jgaeehjhacvz `~a zv`nia thvmhc vma zò{ia {a~hgf# Tmac `{{ixhcd vma PII vazv vgvma @^-0( ~ad~azzhgc eg~ jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz) ta ~alajv vma cqii mx{gvmazhz ge {`~òava~zv`nhihvx `v vma 0;! zhdchehj`cja iauai eg~ 1>! ge vma jgqcv~haz) 4;! ge hcfqzv~hìh|af jgqcv~haz)`cf 1;! ge fauaig{hcd jgqcv~haz# Tmac ta qza vma M`czac -088>( {`~òava~ zv`nhihvx vazv `z `~gnqzvcazz jmajb vg vazv vma zv`nhihvx ge vma jgczv`cv) {a~zhzvacja) u`~h`cja) `cf ` lghcv zv`nhihvxhc vma @^-0( ogfai) ta ~alajv vma cqii mx{gvmazhz ge zv`nhihvx thvm zhdchehj`cvix i`~da uìqaz ge vma

vazv zv`vhzvhj#6

Gua~ìi) vmaza zv`nhihvx vazvz daca~ìix zq{{g~v vma hczv`nhihvx ge @^-0( jgaeehjhacvz eg~ vma f`v`

daca~`vhcd {~gjazz ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz) zqddazvhcd vm`v ihca`~ ogfaiz o`x cgv na taii/ehv vg hcuazvhd`va vma zv`vhgc`~hvx ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv za~haz#

>#> Jq~~acv @jjgqcv Zv`vhgc`~hvx< Vmag~x

Thvm ` zho{ia vmag~avhjì e~òatg~b thvm vma hcehchvaix/ihuaf) jgczqo{vhgc/zoggvmhcd~a{~azacv`vhua `dacv) ta j`c o`ba vmag~avhjì {~afhjvhgcz gc jq~~acv `jjgqcv zqzv`hc`nhihvx-V~am`c `cf Tìzm 08802 M`bbhg `cf ^qzm 0880(# Hc vmhz e~òatg~b) zv`vhgc`~hvx ge jq~~acv`jjgqcv nì`cjaz hz t`~~`cvaf `z vma ~a{~azacv`vhua `dacv g{vhoh|az ma~ jgczqo{vhgc thvm vmaigcd/~qc hcva~vao{g~ì nqfdav jgczv~`hcv -I^NJ(#

Tmac ta `zzqoa vm`v vma ajgcgox/thfa nqfdav jgczv~`hcv hz dhuac `z(

tma~a Jv ) Hv ) Dv ) Nv ) Xv ) `cf ~v ~a{~azacv jgczqo{vhgc) {~hu`va hcuazvoacv) dgua~coacvz{acfhcd) cav eg~ahdc `zzavz) gqv{qv) `cf vma tg~if ~aì hcva~azv ~`va) ~az{ajvhuaix# Ta j`chzgi`va cav eg~ahdc `zzav `z@c gnuhgqz jgqcva~a}ò{ia hz vma vq~nqiacja hc vma zv`cf`~f fauh`vhgc hc vma a`~ix 084;z vm`v oqzv mùa naac

`zzgjh`vaf thvm ` dignì auacv) h#a#) vma jgii`{za ge vma N~avvgc Tggfz zxzvao#:Jgo{iava ~azqivz `~a egqcf hc @{{acfh} >#

6Vma fhzv~hnqvhgc ge vma vazv zv`vhzvhj hz cgc/zv`cf`~f `cf fa{acfz fh~ajvix gc vma cqona~ ge ~ad~azzg~z# Vmaza vazvz

zv`vhzvhjz `~a uìhf auac hc vma {~azacja ge cgc/zv`vhgc`~x oguaoacvz hc vma ogfai ~ad~azzg~z `cf'g~ u`~h`cja-M`czac 0880(#


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Vmhz j`c na eq~vma~ zho{ihehaf vg;;>() ta j`c jgczhfa~ ap# -6( `v vma zva`fx zv`va hc ` zvgjm`zvhj zavvhcd#Faehchcd ^v? 0 " ~vzqjm vm`v A-^v " hy v/0(?^ eg~ ìi v`cf h;) dhuac vma hceg~o`vhgc zav e~govma {~auhgqz {a~hgf) ia`fz qz vg gnv`hc vma igcd/~qc namùhg~ ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv `z;!# Dhuac vmagev/`~dqaf ta`bcazz ge vma @FE vazv) hv hz ~a`zgc`nia vg vmhcb vm`v qchv ~ggvz `~a daca~ìix pqhva{~auìacv hc jq~~acv `jjgqcv za~haz#

1Qchv ~ggv vazv ~azqivz eg~ a`jm jgqcv~x `~a ~a{g~vaf hc @{{acfh} :# Vma B[ZZ ~`va ~aeiajvz vma e`hiq~a vg ~alajv vma cqiimx{gvmazhz ge zv`vhgc`~hvx#


13/43


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@FE B[ZZ FEDIZ MADX \hugv/@cf~atz

Cgvaz< Vma @FE) MADX) cf FEDIZ ~azqivz ~a{g~v qchv ~ggv ~alajvhgc ~`vaz j~gzz ii jgqcv~haz# Vma B[ZZ ~azqivz ~a{g~vvma e`hiq~a vg ~alajv zv`vhgc`~hvx ~`va j~gzz ii jgqcv~haz# Vma g~hdhcì @FE hz ~qc qzhcd cg jgczv`cv) cg vhoa v~acfz) cf cgi`dz# Vma zajgcf n`~ ~a{g~vz vma @FE vazvz qzhcd i`d iacdvmz jmgzac nx vma Zjmt`~v| J~hva~h`# Vma B[ZZ vazv hz ~qcthvmgqv vhoa v~acf cf ~azqivz ~a{g~vaf ~a eg~ |a~g i`dz) vmgqdm igcda~ i`d iacdvmz ~a vazvaf cf xhaif zhohi`~ ~azqivz#

@ii FEDIZ vazvz `~a ~qc thvmgqv v~acf) qza vma ~a{g~vaf Zjmt`~v| J~hva~h` i d iacdvmz) `cf vma Aiihgv) ^gvmacna~d) `cfZvgjb j~hvhjì uìqaz# Vma jm`~v ~a{g~vz vma Mxiiana~d) Acdia) D~`cda~) Xgg -MADX( vazv igcd/~qc qchv ~ggvz qzhcd cg i`dz#

Zgq~ja< @qvmg~z jìjqi`vhgcz#

Ta j`c jgczhfa~ ` cqona~ ge {gzzhnia a}{i`c`vhgcz eg~ vma e`hiq~a ge ~alajvhgc ge vma qchv ~ggv hcjq~~acv `jjgqcv za~haz# Eh~zv) zqjm ~azqivz jgqif `~hza hejq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz fg mùa ` v~qaigcd/~qc qchv ~ggv# Vmhz jgcjiqzhgc hz zgoatm`v v~gqniazgoa) naj`qza hv g{{gzaz vmag~avhjì{~afhjvhgcz gc jq~~acv `jjgqcv zqzv`hc`nhihvx# @ zajgcf {gzzhnia a}{i`c`vhgc hz vm`v vma jq~~acv`jjgqcv nì`cja `z ` {g~vhgc ge DF[ o`x mùa zv~qjvq~ì n~a`bz hc vma iauaiz g~ v~acfz# He vm`v hzvma j`za) zho{ia ihca`~ zv`vhgc`~hvx vazvz jgqif e`hi vg ~alajv vma cqii mx{gvmazhz ge qchv ~ggvz#Ehcìix) vmaza ~azqivz o`x ~azqiv e~go {`~òava~ hczv`nhihvhaz# Dhuac vma jm`cda hc ngvm fgoazvhj

`cf hcva~c`vhgcì acuh~gcoacv vm`v jgqcv~haz e`ja) hv hz {gzzhnia vm`v vma fad~aa ge {a~zhzvacja-j`{vq~af nx hc apq`vhgc -0(( j`c u`~x gua~ vhoa# Fa{acfhcd gc vma c`vq~a ge zv~qjvq~ì n~a`bz){`~òava~ hczv`nhihvhaz) g~ ~adhoa zthvjmaz) vma {gta~ ge zv`cf`~f qchv ~ggv vazvz j`c u`~xzhdchehj`cvix -[a~~gc 08=82 Caizgc av ì# >;;0(# @z zqjm) hv hz ~a`zgc`nia vm`v ~ajacv ihva~`vq~agevac hcjg~{g~`vaz cgc/ihca`~ ogfaiz vg vazv vma zv`vhgc`~hvx ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz#

Vma qza ge cgc/ihca`~ ogfaiz ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz fgaz cgv mhcda zgiaix gc vma ao{h~hjìehcfhcd ge qchv ~ggv vazvz) nqv ìzg m`z n`jbhcd hc ajgcgohj hcvqhvhgc# V`xig~ ->;;>( `~dqaz vm`vzv~qjvq~ì n~a`bz hc ahvma~ g~ ngvm ge zùhcdz `cf hcuazvoacv hc vma {~hu`va `cf dgua~coacv


14/43


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zajvg~z jgqif ia`f vg n~a`bz hc jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz# Vmhz zqddazvz vm`v ~adhoa zmhevz hcjq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz j`c na j`qzaf nx jm`cdaz hc vma dignì ehc`cjhì o`~bav) jm`cdaz hc~adqi`vg~x jgcv~giz gc j~gzz/ng~fa~ j`{hvì eigtz) jm`cdaz hc j~afhv tg~vmhcazz ge ` jgqcv~x) g~jm`cdaz hc fgoazvhj `cf eg~ahdc jgqcv~haz {gihjhaz `cf hczvhvqvhgcz eg~ zùhcdz `cf hcuazvoacv

-V`xig~ >;;>(#5

Tmac ta `{{ix qchv ~ggv vazvz thvm ` zhcdia g~ fgqnia zv~qjvq~ì n~a`bz hc vma v~acf `cf'g~hcva~ja{v vg gq~ jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cja f`v`) ta dav ~azqivz thvm hcj~a`zaf ~`vaz ge qchv ~ggv~alajvhgc# Vma qchv ~ggv ~alajvhgc ~`va eg~ vma \hugv/@cf~atz -088>( vazv eg~ ` zhcdia n~a`b hc vmahcva~ja{v hz 65#1! -Ehdq~a 6(# V`nia 0 {~guhfaz jgqcv~x iauai ~azqivz eg~ qchv ~ggv vazvhcd thvmzv~qjvq~ì n~a`bz `cf zmgtz zhohi`~ ~azqivz qzhcd vma \hugv/@cf~atz g~ Jiaoacva/Ogcv`caz/âxaz qchv ~ggv vazv thvm zv~qjvq~ì n~a`bz -Jiaoacva av ì# 088=(# Vma qchv ~ggv ~alajvhgc ~`vazm`~fix hcj~a`zaz tmac ta ogua e~go ` zhcdia n~a`b vazv `cf ` fgqnia n~a`b vazv# @ivmgqdmvmaza hcj~a`zaz hc vma qchv ~ggv ~alajvhgc ~`vaz zmgqif cgv na qzaf `z vma zgia ogvhu`vhgc eg~hcjiqfhcd zv~qjvq~ì n~a`bz) vmax fg geea~ zq{{g~v eg~ hcjiqzhgc ge zv~qjvq~ì n~a`bz# Og~a n~g`fix)vmaza ~azqivz zqddazv vm`v cgc/~alajvhgc ge vma qchv ~ggv hc ihca`~ vazvz zmgqif cgv na vgg pqhjbixhcva~{~avaf `z cgc/zqzv`hc`nhihvx ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz#

5Eq~vma~og~a) tmac oa`zq~hcd vma jq~~acv `jjgqcv ~ai`vhua vg DF[ zv~qjvq~ì n~a`bz j`c `~hza e~go zqffac jm`cdazhc DF[ namùhg~# Eg~ a}ò{ia) zqffac zvg{ d~gtvm) ~adhoa zmhevhcd g~ {iqjbhcd hc DF[ d~gtvm -E~hafo`c 0856(mùa naac zq{{g~vaf hc ` cqona~ ge {~auhgqz {`{a~z#


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V`nia 0< Qchv ^ggv Vazvz thvm Zhcdia Zv~qjvq~ì N~a`bz

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,,,) ,,) , facgvaz ~alajvhgc ge vma cqii qchv ~ggv mx{gvmazhz `v vma 0!) 1!) `cf 0;! iauai



16/43


06

Tmhia vma \hugv/@cf~atz `cf JO^ qchv ~ggv vazvz ìigt vma hcjg~{g~`vhgc ge ja~v`hc cgc/ihca`~hvhaz) vmax `~a cgv ~gnqzv eg~ ìi vx{az ge cgc/ihca`~ `flqzvoacv# Eg~ a}ò{ia) vmaza vazvz~azv~hjv vma cqona~ `cf vx{az ge n~a`bz# Macja) vma \hugv/@cf~atz `cf JO^ qchv ~ggv vazvz `~ahcuìhf eg~ `cx eg~o ge cgc/ihca`~hvhaz vm`v eìi gqvzhfa vmgza ~azv~hjvhgcz -Caizgc av ì#>;;0(# @zzqjm) vmaza vazvz e`hi vg `ff~azz vma {~ho`~x gnza~u`vhgcz ta o`fa hc ` {~auhgqz zajvhgc< vhoau`~h`vhgcz hc jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja# Gca {`~vhjqi`~ix jgcja~chcd ihohv`vhgc hz vm`v he vmaza~haz zthvjmaz e~go zv`vhgc`~x vg cgc/zv`vhgc`~x ~adhoaz) zv`cf`~f qchv ~ggv vazvz `~a cgv uìhf)auac he vmax `jjgqcv eg~ zv~qjvq~ì n~a`bz -Bho >;;;(# Vmhz dhuaz ~hza vg vma pqazvhgc`nia uìhfhvxge vmaza zv`cf`~f vazvz tmac vmax `~a `{{ihaf vg jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz a}mhnhvhcd{a~zhzvacja zthvjmaz) `cf {gzzhnia {a~hgfz ge igjì cgc/zv`vhgc`~hvx -Jmac >;00(#

Igjì cgc/zv`vhgc`~hvx hc jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz hz hcvqhvhuaix {i`qzhnia# Zqjm zthvjmaz hc{a~zhzvacja ho{ix vm`v jq~~acv `jjgqcv `jjqoqi`vhgc gjjq~z hc zgoa zmg~v/~qc ~adhoaz `v ~`vazvm`v uhgi`va vma I^NJ nqv auacvqìix zthvjmaz n`jb vg ` ~`va vm`v hz hc `jjg~f`cja thvm vmaI^NJ# Macja) `c `{{~g{~h`va ao{h~hjì ogfai ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz o`x caaf vg ìigteg~ og~a daca~ì {`~òava~ hczv`nhihvhaz vm`c lqzv n~a`bz hc vma v~acf g~ vma oa`c) tmhjm dhuaz~hza vg ` caaf vg ao{igx ` O`~bgu/Zthvjmhcd qchv ~ggv vazv#

:#> O`~bgu/Zthvjmhcd -OZ( Zv`vhgc`~hvx @cìxzhz

:#>#0 OZ/@FE Azvho`vhgc

Ta cgt v`ba ` og~a daca~ì qchv ~ggv vazvhcd `{{~g`jm `cf ao{igx ` O`~bgu/Zthvjmhcd qchv~ggv vazv egiigthcd ^`xn`qfh av ì# ->;;6( `cf Jmac ->;00(# Vma OZ/@FE vazvhcd e~òatg~b hzn`zaf gc vma zv`cf`~f @FE vazvhcd e~òatg~b nqv fhzvhcdqhzmaz {a~hgfz ge igjìix a}{igzhuanamùhg~ e~go dignì qchv ~ggvz -Mìi av ì# 0888(# Vmhz vazvhcd {~gjafq~a ìigtz eg~ vma fxcòhjzge vma vazvaf u`~h`nia vg fa{acf gc `c qcgnza~uaf) zvgjm`zvhj zv`va u`~h`nia#

Azvho`vhgc ge vma ogfai ~apqh~az o`}hoqo ihbaihmggf azvho`vhgc ge vma {`~òava~ uajvg~ `jjg~fhcd vg

-8(

thvm `cf #

Ta ìigt eg~ vma jgczv`cv `cf za~hì jg~~ai`vhgc jgaeehjhacv vg v`ba vtg fheea~acv ~adhoaz tmhia

o`hcv`hchcd jgczv`cv u`~h`cja#4

Eq~vma~og~a) ta ~azv~hjv gca ~adhoa vg ` ~`cfgo tìb ~adhoa-zv`va ;( tmhia vma zajgcf ~adhoa hz ` zv`cf`~f @^-0( oa`c/~aua~vhcd ~adhoa -zv`va 0(# Vmhzìigtz eg~ vma fhzvhcjvhgc navtaac igjì cgc/zv`vhgc`~hvx vm`v gjjq~z thvmhc ` ~adhoa `cf dignì

cgc/zv`vhgc`~hvx vm`v gjjq~z `j~gzz vma acvh~a zò{ia -^`xn`qfh av ì# >;;6(# Hc ihdmv ge j~gzz/zajvhgcì fheea~acjaz hc jq~~acv `jjgqcv fxcòhjz) ta azvho`va vma ogfai eg~ a`jm ge gq~

4Ta ìigt zthvjmhcd u`~h`cjaz eg~ Naidhqo) Dag~dh`) D~aaja) Hcfgcazh`) `cf Hz~ài) mgtaua~) `z a}ja{vhgcz# Eg~vmaza jgqcv~haz) f`v` uhzqìh|`vhgc) ogfai ehv) `cf {`~òava~ zv`nhihvx vazvz jgceh~o vm`v vma OZ/@FE ogfai thvmzthvjmhcd u`~h`cjaz {a~eg~o zhdchehj`cvix navva~ vm`c vma ogfai zmgtc hc Apq`vhgc 8# Hc vma ogfai thvm zthvjmhcdu`~h`cjaz) vma u`~h`cja v`baz vtg ~adhoaz) 7 ) 7 hc `jjg~f thvm vma ~adhoa jm`cdaz hc vma jgczv`cv `cf vma

@^-0( jgaeehjhacv#


17/43


01

zò{ia jgqcv~haz hcfhuhfqìix# Vmhz thii {~guhfa d~a`va~ hczhdmv gc tmavma~ `cf vg tm`v a}vacv

j~gzz/zajvhgcì fheea~acjaz f~hua fheea~acjaz hc jq~~acv `jjgqcv fxcòhjz#=

Vma o`hc {q~{gza ge vmhz a}a~jhza hz vtg/egif< vg hfacvhex tmavma~ vma jq~~acv `jjgqcv za~haz gevma jgqcv~haz mùa igjì `cf dignì qchv ~ggvz) `cf vg hfacvhex `cf f`va ~adhoa zthvjmaz#Azvho`vhgc ge vma OZ ogfai thii xhaif azvho`vaz ge vma ogfai {`~òava~z `z taii `z vma ehvvaf

{~gn`nhihvhaz# Igjì zv`vhgc`~hvx hz vazvaf qzhcd vma v/zv`vhzvhj ge vma azvho`vaf {a~zhzvacja{`~òava~ -ge vma oa`c ~aua~vhcd ~adhoa( `cf vma zv`cf`~f Fhjbax/Eqiia~ fhzv~hnqvhgc eg~ vazvzhcjiqfhcd ` jgczv`cv# Vtg `ffhvhgcì zajgcf/g~fa~ zv`vhgc`~hvx j~hva~h` oqzv na jmajbaf vgjgceh~o dignì zv`vhgc`~hvx -[z`~`f`bhz av ì# >;;6(# Vma egiigthcd vtg jgcfhvhgcz oqzv na oav `zvma cajazz`~x `cf zqeehjhacv jgcfhvhgcz eg~ vma za~haz vg na dignìix zv`vhgc`~x#

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@z ta a}{ajvaf) vma OZ/@FE vazv xhaifz mhdma~ ~alajvhgc ~`vaz eg~ ngvm igjì `cf dignì qchv~ggvz jgo{`~af vg vma {~auhgqz ihca`~ qchv ~ggv vazvz# Ta jgceh~o vma igjì zv`vhgc`~hvx ge vmajq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cja hc oa`c ~aua~vhcd ~adhoa qzhcd `c @FE qchv ~ggv vazvhcd {~gjafq~a#Ehdq~a 1 {~azacvz vma qchv ~ggv vazv zv`vhzvhjz eg~ vma azvho`vaf {a~zhzvacja {`~òava~z fq~hcd vmaoa`c ~aua~vhcd ~adhoa `j~gzz ìi jgqcv~haz) jgo{`~af vg vma 1! j~hvhjì uìqa -zmgtc thvm vmazgihf vmhjb ua~vhjì ihca(# @z zmgtc) ta `~a `nia vg ~alajv vma qchv ~ggv cqii mx{gvmazhz hc vma oa`c~aua~vhcd ~adhoa eg~ vma o`lg~hvx ge vma jgqcv~haz# Ta `~a qc`nia vg ~alajv vma igjì qchv ~ggv eg~zauac jgqcv~haz hcjiqfhcd vma QZ) Vq~bax) Cg~t`x) Hcfgcazh`) Z{`hc) vma [^J ) `cf N~`|hi# Vmhzho{ihaz cgv gcix vm`v vmaza jgqcv~haz jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz a}mhnhv igjìix cgc/zv`vhgc`~x

~adhoaz) nqv ìzg vm`v ta j`ccgv ~alajv ` dignì qchv ~ggv eg~ vmaza jgqcv~haz#

=Ngvm ogfaiz `~a azvho`vaf qzhcd vma o`}hoqo ihbaihmggf n`zaf Mòhivgc Ehiva~ thvm D`qzz {~gd~òz {~guhfaf nx

Bho `cf Caizgc -088=(#


18/43


05

Ehdq~a 1< OZ/@FE Oa`c âua~vhcd âdhoa Vazv Zv`vhzvhjz

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Cgvaz< Vma vmhjb zgihf ihca ~a{~azacvz 1! @FE j~hvhjì uìqa eg~ vma j`za thvm jgczv`cv cf cg v~acf# Vma ajgcgoav~hjogfai eg~ vmhz ehdq~a iigtz eg~ zthvjmhcd jgczv`cv cf {a~zhzvacja {`~òava~ j~gzz ~adhoaz# Gca ~adhoa hz ~azv~hjvaf vg

~`cfgo tìb ogfai# Ta ~a qc`nia vg ~alajv vma qchv ~ggv hc vma eh~zv ~adhoa eg~ zauac jgqcv~haz< vma QZ) Vq~bax) Cg~t`x)Hcfgcazh`) Z{`hc) Vma [^J) cf N~`|hi#


Eg~ vmgza jgqcv~haz hc tmhjm ta j`c ~alajv vma qchv ~ggv hc vma oa`c ~aua~vhcd ~adhoa) vmhz hz cgvzqeehjhacv vg ~alajv dignì cgczv`vhgc`~hvx) `cf gca oqzv ìzg jgczhfa~ vma zajgcf/g~fa~jgcfhvhgcz eg~ dignì zv`vhgc`~hvx -[z`~`f`bhz av ì# >;;6(# Qzhcd vmaza jgcfhvhgcz) ta ehcf vm`vta `~a ìzg qc`nia vg ~alajv vma dignì qchv ~ggv eg~ Uaca|qai`# Thvm vma OZ/@FE vazvhcde~òatg~b) ta `~a cgt `nia vg ~alajv vma qchv ~ggv eg~ ==! ge vma jgqcv~haz) ` zqnzv`cvhìhcj~a`za jgo{`~af vg ihca`~ qchv ~ggv vazvz#

:#>#: ^`cfgo Tìb A{hzgfaz

Vma ~`cfgo tìb ~adhoa ~a{~azacvz vhoa z{`cz fq~hcd tmhjm ` jgqcv~x ~qcz `c a}{igzhua) g~cgc/oa`c ~aua~vhcd) jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cja# Vmaza igjìix cgc/zv`vhgc`~x {a~hgfz ge jq~~acv`jjgqcv nì`cja tgqif na qczqzv`hc`nia he hv jgcvhcqaf hc vma igcd/~qc# Hc gvma~ tg~fz) vmaza{a~hgfz j`c na hcva~{~avaf `z vmgza thvm ` ~af zhdcì -^`xn`qfh av ì# >;;6( vm`v vma jgqcv~x gejgcja~c tgqif uhgi`va vma igcd/~qc nqfdav jgczv~`hcv qciazz vma~a hz ` f~`zvhj jm`cda hc hvzjq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz#


19/43


04

Ehdq~a 5 hiiqzv~`vaz vma {~g{g~vhgc ge cgc/zv`vhgc`~x ~adhoaz hc vma vgvì jgqcv~haz eg~ tmhjm vma

f`v` `~a ù`hi`nia#8

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Ehdq~a 5 ìzg faogczv~`vaz vm`v vma e~`jvhgc ge jgqcv~haz hc vma cgc/zv`vhgc`~x ~adhoa u`~haz`j~gzz jgqcv~x d~gq{z# [~hg~ vg vma 088;z) hcfqzv~hìh|af jgqcv~haz `{{a`~ zihdmvix iazz {~gca vgacva~ vma cgc/zv`vhgc`~x ~adhoa vm`c fauaig{hcd jgqcv~haz) thvm ` o`}hoqo cgc/zv`vhgc`~x

gjjq~~acja ~`va `~gqcf ;#6# Nqv èva~ 088;) hcfqzv~hìh|af jgqcv~haz a}{a~hacja ` ~hza hc vma cgc/zv`vhgc`~x gjjq~~acja tmhia fauaig{hcd g~ aoa~dhcd o`~bav jgqcv~haz vacf vg na ~ai`vhuaix zv`niag~ fajihchcd# Aoa~dhcd o`~bav jgqcv~haz vacf vg mùa mhdma~ cgc/zv`vhgc`~x gjjq~~acja ~`vhgzvm`c ùa~`da fauaig{hcd jgqcv~haz# Hv hz cgvatg~vmx vm`v vmhz d~gq{ ge jgqcv~haz a}{a~hacja mhdm

8@ jgqcv~x j`c acva~ ` cgc/zv vhgc`~x ~adhoa og~a vm`c gca vhoaz hc ` faj`fa# @ jgqcv~x hz z`hf vg acva~ vma ~`cfgotìb ~adhoa a`jm pq`~va~ vma O`~bgu/Zthvjmhcd ehvvaf {~gn`nhihvx j~gzzaz ;#1 e~go naigt# ^`vaz `~a fava~ohcaf nxfhuhfhcd vma cqona~ ge cgc/zv`vhgc`~x ~adhoa zv`~vz nx vma cqona~ ge jgqcv~haz -{a~ z{ajhehaf jgqcv~x d~gq{( hc vmazò{ia fq~hcd vma vhoa zqnzav#


20/43


0=

cgc/zv`vhgc`~x ~adhoa ~`vhgz hc vma 08=;z) ` vhoa {a~hgf o`cx aoa~dhcd o`~bav jgqcv~haza}{a~hacjaf fanv j~hzhz# Ngvm fauaig{hcd `cf aoa~dhcd o`~bav jgqcv~x d~gq{z a}{a~hacja ` eìihc vma ~`va hc vma i`va 08=;z `cf vma ohf/088;z# Hcva~azvhcdix) vma -qc~a{g~vaf( aq~g 0> jgqcv~haz~`vhgz ~`{hfix ~hza hc vma zajgcf mìe ge vma >;;;z) zqddazvhcd ` {gzzhnia ihcb thvm vma fanv j~hzhzvm`v zv`~vaf hc >;0;#

@ivmgqdm vma {a~hgf thvm cgc/zv`vhgc`~x jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz j`c na hcva~{~avaf `z vma{a~hgf thvm ~af zhdcìz naj`qza ge hvz ~hzb ge uhgi`vhcd vma igcd/~qc hcva~vao{g~ì nqfdavjgczv~`hcv) ~af zhdcìz fg cgv mùa vg cajazz`~hix oa`c vm`v vma jgqcv~x ge jgcja~c hz fqa vga}{a~hacja ` j~hzhz# V`nia : ~a{g~vz vma jg~~ai`vhgc navtaac vma fqoox eg~ vma cgc/zv`vhgc`~x

~adhoaz `cf vma gjjq~~acjaz ge fheea~acv vx{az ge jq~~acjx j~hzaz#0;

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V`nia :< Jg~~ai`vhgcz Navtaac Cgc/zv`vhgc`~x âdhoaz -v/0( `cf J~hzaz -v(

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21/43


08

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Vmaza ehcfhcdz zqddazv vm`v jgcja~cz `ngqv fanv zqzv`hc`nhihvx `~a cgv ao{h~hjìix qcegqcfaf#

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22/43


>;

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23/43


>0

6# FAVAÔHC@CVZ GE JQ^ÂCV @JJGQCV [A^ZHZVACJA

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n Oa`zq~af z vm~aa xa`~ ua~`daz e~go v: vm~gqdm v0#


25/43


>:

j Oa`zq~af z fauh`vhgcz e~go vma zò{ia oa`c#


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{a~zhzvacv jq~~acv `jjgqcv honì`cjaz# Vg fg zg) ta hczva`f hcjiqfa vma fqoohaz eg~ mhdmix/fauaig{af `cf qcfa~/fauaig{af ehc`cjhì o`~bavz -ngvm hc va~oz ge {~hu`va j~afhv j~a`vhgc() nqv

ta fg cgv favajv zqjm cgcihca`~hvx hc vma aeeajv ge ehc`cjhì fauaig{oacv#01

Vma ~gia ge ehc`cjhì g{accazz hc jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja) gc vma gvma~ m`cf) u`~haz `j~gzzjgqcv~x d~gq{z# Ta ehcf vm`v eg~ fauaig{hcd `cf aoa~dhcd jgqcv~haz) ehc`cjhì g{accazzhcj~a`zaz vma ihbaihmggf ge acva~hcd vma ~`cfgo tìb tmhia vma g{{gzhva hz v~qa eg~ hcfqzv~hìh|afjgqcv~haz# Macja) ògcd hcfqzv~hìh|af jgqcv~haz) ehc`cjhì g{accazz o`x {~ho`~hix v~`czohvdignì zmgjbz vgt`~fz jq~~acv `jjgqcv ~anì`cjhcd# Eg~ fauaig{hcd `cf aoa~dhcd o`~bavjgqcv~haz) mgtaua~) d~a`va~ ehc`cjhì g{accazz o`x ia`f jgqcv~haz vg ~qc honì`cjaf jq~~acv`jjgqcvz og~a {a~zhzvacvix# Vmhz ~azqiv o`x hcfhj`va `c hcj~a`zaf ihbaihmggf eg~ fauaig{hcd g~aoa~dhcd o`~bav jgqcv~haz vg a}{a~hacja {a~zhzvacv a}jazzhua ng~~gthcd e~go g~ iacfhcd vggua~za`z) `d`hc jgczhzvacv thvm vma J`nìia~g) av ì# mx{gvmazhz# @izg) vma aeeajv ge ehc`cjhìg{achcd j`c fa{acf q{gc vma iauai ge hczvhvqvhgcì fauaig{oacv -Jmhcc `cf Hvg >;;5(# Ta thiijgoa n`jb vg vmhz hzzqa tmac ta fhuhfa vma zò{ia hcvg vma zqnd~gq{z ge faehjhv `cf zq~{iqzjgqcv~haz#

@ivmgqdm `jjqoqi`vaf {~azzq~a e~go vma ~aì a}jm`cda ~`va ohzìhdcoacv fgaz cgv zaao vgo`vva~) v~`fa g{accazz hz egqcf vg e`jhihv`va jq~~acv `jjgqcv `flqzvoacv2 hv faj~a`zaz vmaihbaihmggf ge acva~hcd vma ~`cfgo tìb ~adhoa eg~ ngvm hcfqzv~hì `cf fauaig{hcd jgqcv~x d~gq{z#Ngvm jgoogfhvx `cf o`cqe`jvq~hcd a}{g~va~z ìzg `~a iazz ihbaix vg acva~ cgc/zv`vhgc`~x~adhoaz he vmax `~a ahvma~ fauaig{hcd g~ aoa~dhcd jgqcv~haz# Vmhz ~azqiv o`x ~aeiajv vma aeeajv ge

va~oz ge v~`fa zmgjbz#05

Hcva~c`vhgcì ~aza~uaz -H^( mgifhcd hz egqcf vg mai{ ~anì`cjhcd) tmhjm o`x na jgcv~`fhjvg~xdhuac vm`v hcva~c`vhgcì ~aza~ua mgifhcdz o`x mai{ fauaig{hcd jgqcv~haz zmhaif `d`hczv ngvm ~aìa}jm`cda ~`va ugi`vhihvx `cf va~oz ge v~`fa zmgjbz -`z egqcf hc @h|aco`c >;;=(# Mgtaua~) tacaaf vg zaa mgt vma ~azqivz fheea~ navtaac zq~{iqz `cf faehjhv jgqcv~haz#

01Vma ~azqivz `~a cgv ~a{g~vaf# Vma fqoox eg~ mhdmix/fauaig{af ehc`cjhì o`~bavz v`baz vma uìqa ge gca tmac vmaiauai ge {~hu`va j~afhv j~a`vhgc hz `ngua vma 4;vm {a~jacvhia `cf |a~g) gvma~thza# Vma fqoox eg~ qcfa~/fauaig{afehc`cjhì o`~bavz v`baz vma uìqa ge gca tmac vma iauai ge {~hu`va j~afhv j~a`vhgc hz naigt vma :;vm {a~jacvhia `cf|a~g) gvma~thza# Ta hcjiqfa vmaza fqoohaz hczva`f ge vma u`~h`nia ge {~hu`va j~afhv j~a`vhgc#

05Mgtaua~) tmac ta hcjiqfa vma u`~h`nia eg~ va~oz ge v~`fa zmgjbz) vma ~azqivz ta~a jgczhzvacvix hczhdchehj`cv#


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>6

Nqfdav zq~{iqz `z ` {a~jacv ge DF[) hcjiqfaf `z `jjqoqi`vaf nì`cjaz gua~ vm~aa xa`~z)faj~a`zaz vma {~gn`nhihvx ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv ~anì`cjhcd `j~gzz ìi jgqcv~x d~gq{z# Vmhz oa`czvm`v jgqcv~haz thvm `jjqoqi`vaf nqfdav faehjhvz `~a og~a ihbaix vg ~anì`cja jq~~acv `jjgqcvztmhia jgqcv~haz thvm nqfdav zq~{iqzaz j`c èeg~f vg ~qc og~a {a~zhzvacv jq~~acv `jjgqcvhonì`cjaz hc vma zmg~v ~qc#

Mhzvg~x hz eqii ge a{hzgfaz tma~a hcva~c`vhgcì ogcav`~x zxzvaoz e`jaf zaua~a zv~azz j`qzaf nxvma `zxooav~x navtaac jq~~acv `jjgqcv faehjhv `cf zq~{iqz jgqcv~haz# @z ta zaa ` zhdchehj`cvixcad`vhua jgaeehjhacv gc vma jq~~acv `jjgqcv faehjhv fqoox hc V`nia 1) hc daca~ì) faehjhv jgqcv~haz`~a hc daca~ì og~a ihbaix vg e`ja o`~bav {~azzq~a eg~ jg~~ajvhgcz `cf) vma~aeg~a) `~a `v d~a`va~~hzb eg~ j~hzaz vm`c zq~{iqz jgqcv~haz# Vg zmaf og~a ihdmv gc vma `zxooav~x navtaac zq~{iqz `cffaehjhv jgqcv~haz) ta ~a{a`v vma zòa a}a~jhza `j~gzz vma zqnzò{iaz ge jgqcv~x/xa`~z thvm

jq~~acv `jjgqcv zq~{iqzaz `cf vmgza thvm faehjhvz) `cf ~a{g~v vma ~azqivz hc V`nia 5#04

Vma ~azqivz ~a{g~vaf hc V`nia 5 zmgt vm`v vma {gzhvhua jg~~ai`vhgc navtaac eh}af a}jm`cda ~`va~adhoa `cf jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja ta egqcf hc V`nia 1 zaaoz vg ~aeiajv og~a ge vmanamùhg~ ge faehjhv jgqcv~haz# Hc {`~vhjqi`~) tmac `c aoa~dhcd o`~bav jgqcv~x thvm ` eh}afa}jm`cda ~`va hz ~qcchcd ` jq~~acv `jjgqcv faehjhv) vma ihbaihmggf ge acva~hcd vma ~`cfgo tìb~adhoa ~hzaz zhdchehj`cvix# Ta j`c zq~ohza vm`v tmhia a}jm`cda ~`va zv`nhihvx aczq~az zv`nia

hceigt ge j`{hvì) vma ~hzb ge e`hihcd vg oaav vma hcva~vao{g~ì nqfdav o`x hcj~a`za# Ta j`c o`bavma zòa gnza~u`vhgc `ngqv vma aq~g faehjhv jgqcv~haz) tmhjm ua~x oqjm ~aeiajv vma jq~~acv fanvj~hzhz hc vma ~adhgc#

Eq~vma~og~a) ` zhohi`~ gnza~u`vhgc j`c na o`fa `ngqv vma aeeajv ge ehc`cjhì g{accazz# @fauaig{hcd g~ aoa~dhcd o`~bav jgqcv~x thvm jq~~acv `jjgqcv faehjhv hz og~a ihbaix vg acva~ vma~af zhdcì ~adhoa he hv {q~zqaz d~a`va~ g{accazz eg~ vmah~ ehc`cjhì o`~bavz# Vmaza {gzhvhuaho{`jvz ge ehc`cjhì g{accazz `cf eh}af a}jm`cda ~`va ~adhoaz gc vma {~gn`nhihvx gea}{a~hacjhcd ` ~af zhdcì zv`va `~a jgczhzvacv thvm vma a}{a~hacjaz ge fauaig{hcd `cfaoa~dhcd o`~bav ajgcgohaz vm`v a}{a~hacjaf j~hzaz hc vma 08=;z `cf 088;z#

Navva~ cav eg~ahdc `zzav {gzhvhgcz gc vma gvma~ m`cf tgqif mai{ jgqcv~haz thvm jq~~acv `jjgqcvfaehjhv vg ~ao`hc hc vma zv`vhgc`~x ~adhoa# Hc vma jgcva}v ge hcva~vao{g~ì nqfdav jgczv~`hcv) hv hz

pqhva ~a`zgc`nia# Mgtaua~) hcva~c`vhgcì ~aza~uaz mgifhcd jgcvhcqa vg {~azacv zgoatm`v{q||ihcd ~azqivz# Tmhia vma cad`vhua jgaeehjhacv ge vma hcva~c`vhgcì ~aza~uaz mgifhcd eg~ faehjhvjgqcv~haz hz qcfa~zv`cf`nia) zhdchehj`cvix cad`vhua jgaeehjhacvz eg~ ngvm fauaig{hcd `cf aoa~dhcdo`~bav jgqcv~haz d~gq{z thvm zq~{iqz `{{a`~ zgoatm`v jgqcva~/hcvqhvhua# Gca t`x gehcva~{~avhcd vma ~azqiv hz vm~gqdm vma ihpqhfhvx aeeajv ge i`~da ugiqoaz ge hcva~c`vhgcì ~aza~uaz2dhuac {~hja ~hdhfhvhaz) og~a {~guhzhgc ge ihpqhfhvx vm~gqdm eg~ahdc a}jm`cda hcva~uacvhgcz nxzq~{iqz jgqcv~haz tgqif mai{ hcj~a`za fgoazvhj `nzg~{vhgc) {gzzhnix jgcv~hnqvhcd vg ` zm~hcb`da

ge vma zq~{iqz#0=

Vmhz hcva~{~av`vhgc ho{ihaz vm`v zq~{iqz jgqcv~haz thvm mhdm ugiqoaz gehcva~c`vhgcì ~aza~uaz mgifhcd zqjm `z vma [^J `cf Zhcd`{g~a `~a a}{a~hacjhcd og~a {a~zhzvacvzq~{iqz o`hcix naj`qza ge gvma~ ~a`zgcz vm`c vmah~ o`zzhua H^ mgifhcd) zqjm `z mhdm iauaiz gev~`fa g{accazz#

04@ jgqcv~x/xa`~ hz ji`zzhehaf `z ` jq~~acv `jjgqcv faehjhv jgqcv~x/xa`~ he vma vm~aa xa`~ `jjqoqi`vhgc ge vma jq~~acv`jjgqcv faehjhv `j~gzz v/: vg v/0hz cad`vhua#

0=Baa{ hc ohcf vm`v hcva~c`vhgcì ~aza~uaz `~a hcjiqfaf `z fauh`vhgcz e~go vma `ccqì tg~if ùa~`da#


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28/43

@FNH Tg~bhcd [`{a~ 6;;

>5

Cgvaz< Fa{acfacv u`~h`nia hz c hcfhj`vg~ u`~h`nia zav vg gca tmacaua~ jgqcv~x acva~z vma ~`cfgo t`ib ~adhoa# V`nia ~a{g~vz o`~do`}hoqo/ihbaihmggf {~gnhv ogfai# @ii vma a}{i`c`vg~x u`~h`niaz ~a i`ddaf nx gca xa`~# Vhoa eh}af aeeajvz ~a {~g}haf qzhcd `ccq`i T~`va hc vma azvho`vhgc# gnqzv zv`cf`~f a~~g~z ~a{g~vaf hc {`~acvmazaz# ,,,) ,,) , facgvaz zhdchehj`cja v vma 0!) 1!) `cf 0;! iauai#

`N`zaf gc vma zqo ge vma u`~h`nia ge jgcja~c gua~ vm~aa xa`~z e~go v: vm~gqdm v0#

nOa`zq~af z vm~aa xa`~ ua~`daz e~go v: vm~gqdm v0#




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>4

Vma {gzhvhua aeeajv ge nqfdav zq~{iqz gc vma {~gn`nhihvx ge acva~hcd vma ~`cfgo tìb ~adhoa hzegqcf `j~gzz ìi jgqcv~x d~gq{z thvm jq~~acv `jjgqcv faehjhvz# Vmhz ~ahceg~jaz gq~ jgclajvq~a vm`vfaehjhv jgqcv~haz tgqif e`ja og~a o`~bav {~azzq~a vg jg~~ajv honì`cjaz az{ajhìix tmac vmax

`~a ~qcchcd nqfdav faehjhvz#08

Ta {~guhfa ` cqona~ ge vazvz ge dggfcazz/ge/ehv oa`zq~az eg~ vma {~gnhv azvho`vhgcz#

Jgczhfa~hcd vm`v vma {zaqfg ^/zpq`~af -g~ OjE`ffacz ^

>

( fgaz cgv {~guhfa qzaeqi hceg~o`vhgceg~ j~gzz/zò{ia jgo{`~hzgc)>;

` navva~ zv`vhzvhj eg~ ogfai jgo{`~hzgc hz vma `~a` qcfa~ vma

^GJ jq~ua -@QJ(#>0

Vma @QJ ~`cdaz e~go ; vg 0) thvm mhdma~ @QJ uìqaz ~a{~azacvhcd `cho{~guaf `nhihvx eg~ vma ogfai vg fhzj~hohc`va jg~~ajv {~afhjvhgcz e~go eìza ì`~oz# Ta ehcf vma

@QJ zv`vhzvhjz eg~ gq~ azvho`vhgcz ~`cdhcd `v ~ai`vhua mhdm uìqaz) e~go ;#5=5 vg ;#=4=# Hc`ffhvhgc) vma @QJ zv`vhzvhjz `~a mhdma~ hc zqnzò{ia ~ad~azzhgcz vm`c hc vma eqii zò{ia~ad~azzhgc) zq{{g~vhcd vma mx{gvmazhz vm`v zv`daz ge fauaig{oacv o`vva~ eg~ u`~h`vhgcz hc vmafad~aa ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja# @ zhohi`~ jgcjiqzhgc j`c na o`fa `ngqv vma zò{iafhuhzhgc eg~ vma d~gq{z ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv zq~{iqz `cf faehjhv jgqcv~haz) zq{{g~vhcd `zxooav~hazhc fava~ohc`cvz navtaac zq~{iqz `cf faehjhv jgqcv~haz# Ta ìzg ~a{g~v vma {~g{g~vhgcz ge ~adhoazvm`v `~a jg~~ajvix jìiaf hc vgvì gnza~u`vhgcz) ~adhoa gca gnza~u`vhgcz) `cf zv`vhgc`~x ~adhoagnza~u`vhgcz -qzhcd vma {~afhjvaf {~gn`nhihvx ge 1;! `z ` jqv/gee(# @j~gzz fheea~acv zqnzò{iaz)

vma {a~jacv ge jg~~ajv {~afhjvhgcz `{{a`~z vg na ~ai`vhuaix mhdm) hcfhj`vhcd vm`v vma ogfai m`z `dggf iauai ge dggfcazz/ge/ehv# Gua~ìi) vmaza zv`vhzvhjz hcfhj`va vm`v gq~ ogfaiz fg ` dggf lgn hc{~afhjvhcd vma {~gn`nhihvhaz#

@z ` ~gnqzvcazz jmajb) ta ~a{a`v vma a}a~jhzaz qzhcd q{f`vaf âhcm`~v `cf ^gdgee ->;;6(a}jm`cda ~`va ~adhoa ji`zzhehj`vhgcz -~azqivz cgv ~a{g~vaf(# Vma~a hz ihvvia jm`cda hc vmao`dchvqfa) zhdcz) g~ zhdchehj`cja ge vma azvho`vaf jgaeehjhacvz tmac ta qza vma âhcm`~v `cf^gdgee hcfa}) thvm vma cgv`nia a}ja{vhgc ge vma zhdchehj`cja ge vma eia}hnia a}jm`cda ~`va ~adhoa#Hc vma {~gnhv `cìxzhz) vma âhcm`~v `cf ^gdgee hcfa} eia}hnia a}jm`cda ~`va ~adhoa hz zhdchehj`cveg~ fauaig{hcd `cf aoa~dhcd jgqcv~haz az{ajhìix tmac vmax `~a ~qcchcd jq~~acv `jjgqcvfaehjhvz# Vma {gzhvhua ho{`jv ge eh}af a}jm`cda ~`va ~adhoaz hz egqcf vg na ~gnqzv auac tmac taqza vma fheea~acv hcfa}#

6#> Eq~vma~ @cìxzhz gc vma Fad~aa ge Jq~~acv @jjgqcv [a~zhzvacjaGIZ @cìxzhz

@ mhdma~ iauai ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja) g~ ` mhdma~ uìqa ge vma za~hì jg~~ai`vhgcjgaeehjhacv hc vma jq~~acv `jjgqcv za~haz) oa`cz vm`v vma jgqcv~x v`baz og~a vhoa vg ~aua~v vg hvzigcd/vhoa oa`c `cf vma~aeg~a o`hcv`hcz igcda~ {a~hgfz ge ahvma~ -`ngua/ùa~`da( jq~~acv`jjgqcv faehjhvz g~ zq~{iqz#

Nx ìigthcd jq~~acv `jjgqcv za~haz vg v`ba fheea~acv ~adhoaz) vma

c`vq~a ge vma ~aua~zhgc j`c fheea~ `j~gzz ~adhoaz) `cf hv zmgqif na èeajvaf nx vma jgqcv~xzajgcgohj eqcfòacvìz) {gihjx ~adhoaz) `cf gvma~ hczvhvqvhgcì e`jvg~z#

08

Vmhz ~azqiv o`x na jgcv~`fhjvg~x vg vma {~auhgqz ehcfhcd vm`v ngvm vma QZ `cf zgqvma~c Aq~g{a`c jgqcv~haz mùanaac hc vma cgc/zv`vhgc`~x ~adhoa hc vma i`zv eat xa`~z zhcja vmaza jgqcv~haz mùa naac a}{a~hacjhcd vthcfaehjhvz# Mgtaua~) vma zhdchehj`cvix cad`vhua jgaeehjhacv ge cav eg~ahdc `zzav {gzhvhgcz a}{i`hcz az{ajhìix vma j`zage zgqvma~c aq~g jgqcv~haz vm`v mùa naac v`bhcd cad`vhua {gzhvhgcz eg~ vma i`zv faj`fa -auac vg ` i`~da~ a}vacvvm`c vma QZ(# Eq~vma~og~a) `cf og~a ho{g~v`cvix) vmaza Aq~g{a`c jgqcv~haz `~a qcfa~ vma eh}af a}jm`cda ~`va~adhoa(#

>;Jgo{`~hzgcz ge vma {zaqfg ^/zpq`~af `~a uìhf gcix he vma ~ad~azzhgcz qvhih|a vma a}`jv zòa zò{ia) cgv `j~gzzfheea~acv zò{iaz#

>0Vma ^GJ jq~ua ~aeiajvz vma v~`fa/gee navtaac zaczhvhuhvx `cf z{ajhehjhvx hc vma qcfa~ixhcd ogfai -J`cfaigc) av ì#)

>;;8(#


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>=

Ta cgt v`ba ` og~a cq`cja `cìxzhz gc vma fava~ohc`cvz ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv ~anì`cjhcd `cfa}òhca vma fava~ohc`cvz ge vma fad~aa ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja# Eg~ vmhz `cìxzhz) taeh~zv oa`zq~a vma a}vacv ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja nx `{{ixhcd vma @^-0( azvho`vhgc ogfai)`z z{ajhehaf `z naigt) vg a`jm ge vma ~adhoaz ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv za~haz {~auhgqzix hfacvhehaf thvmvma OZ qchv ~ggv `cìxzhz#

) -0:(

eg~ tma~a vl `cf Vl hcfhj`va vma nadhcchcd `cf acfhcd f`vaz ge ~adhoa l)

~az{ajvhuaix#>>

Ta v~a`v vma azvho`vaf za~hì `qvgjg~~ai`vhgc jgaeehjhacv) ) `z vma oa`zq~a ge vma fad~aa gejq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja) vmac ~ad~azz hv jgiiajvhuaix `d`hczv ` uajvg~ ge j`cfhf`vafava~ohc`cvz nx `{{ixhcd vma GIZ azvho`vhgc vg ` zaoh/{`cai f`v`zav jgo{gzaf ge j~gzz/

jgqcv~x ~adhoaz `z:

-06(

Tma~a \l hz ` uajvg~ ge eqcfòacvì u`~h`niaz eg~ ~adhoa l# \l hcjiqfaz ` zhohi`~ zav gea}{i`c`vg~x u`~h`niaz vg tm`v ta qzaf eg~ vma {~gnhv `cìxzhz) vmgqdm ta f~g{ {a~zhzvacvixhczhdchehj`cv u`~h`niaz e~go vma azvho`vhgcz# Còaix) \l hcjiqfaz vma fqoohaz eg~ eia}hnia `cfeh}af a}jm`cda ~`va ~adhoaz2 ~aì a}jm`cda ~`va ohzìhdcoacv2 ~ai`vhua hcjgoa2 ehc`cjhìfauaig{oacv2 ehc`cjhì `cf v~`fa g{accazz2 H^ mgifhcd2 vma fqoohaz eg~ jq~~acv `jjgqcv faehjhv~adhoaz2 `cf vma fqoox eg~ fauaig{hcd jgqcv~haz# @ii vma u`~h`niaz a}ja{v eg~ vma fqoohaz eg~

vma a}jm`cda ~`va ~adhoaz `cf ~aì a}jm`cda ~`va ohzìhdcoacv `~a hcjiqfaf `z ge vma eh~zv xa`~ge ` ~adhoa#>6

Og~a a}{i`c`vhgcz gc vma a}{i`c`vg~x u`~h`niaz `~a {~guhfaf hc @{{acfh} 6#

Vma azzacja ge vmhz a}a~jhza hz zhohi`~ vg vma tg~b nx Jmhcc `cf Tah tmg egjqzaf gc vma ho{`jvge a}jm`cda ~`va ~adhoaz gc jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cja {a~zhzvacja tmhia jgcv~giihcd eg~ gvma~jm`~`jva~hzvhj u`~h`niaz# Mgtaua~) tmhia Jmhcc `cf Tahz e~òatg~b iggbz hcvg vma ùa~`da

namùhg~ ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja -nx iggbhcd `v eg~ a`jm ge vma zò{ia jgqcv~haz() ta`ff og~a cq`cja vg vma azvho`vhgc nx ìigthcd jq~~acv `jjgqcv fxcòhjz vg v`ba fheea~acv~adhoaz `cf vma~anx fheea~acv fad~aaz ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja cgv lqzv `j~gzz jgqcv~haznqv gua~ vhoa#

V`nia 4 ~a{g~vz vma ~azqivz ge vma GIZ azvho`vhgcz) hc tmhjm ta ~ad~azz vma ~adhoa/z{ajhehjfad~aaz ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacja gc ` zav ge j`cfhf`va fava~ohc`cvz# Qcihba vma {~auhgqz

{~gnhv a}a~jhza) vma cqona~ ge gnza~u`vhgcz f~g{z zhdchehj`cvix naj`qza vma ~ad~azzhgcz qza vma

>>Gca ~adhoa oqzv na `v ia`zv 0> pq`~va~z igcd#>:@ jgqcv~x j`c v`ba og~a vm`c gca ~adhoa `z ta ~a{g~v hc V`nia >#

>6 Vma u`~h`niaz eg~ ehc`cjhì g{accazz `cf H^ mgifhcd `~a jgcua~vaf vg fauh`vhgcz e~go vma tg~if ùa~`daz naeg~avmah~ ~adhoa ùa~`daz `~a jìjqi`vaf# Vma ~aì a}jm`cda ~`va ohzìhdcoacv u`~h`nia hz hcjiqfaf `z vma zqo ge vma`nzgiqva uìqaz ge fauh`vhgcz e~go vma `ccqì v~acf gua~ vm~aa xa`~z e~go v: vm~gqdm v0# Vma fqoohaz eg~ vmaa}jm`cda ~`va ~adhoaz `~a n`zaf gc vma ~adhoa/ùa~`daz ge vma g~hdhcì fqoohaz# He vma ùa~`da ge vma fqoohazhz d~a`va~ vm`c ;#1;) vma uìqa ge gca hz `zzhdcaf eg~ vma {`~vhjqi`~ vx{a ge a}jm`cda ~`va ~adhoa#


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d~gq{z hz zg zoìi vm`v ta o`x caaf vg v`ba vma ~azqivz eg~ vmaza zqnd~gq{z thvm zgoa d~`hc gezìv#

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qchv ~ggv) ua~hexhcd vm`v jq~~acv `jjgqcv fxcòhjz `~a f~huac nx vma a}hzvacja ge ~adhoa zmhevz hcvma jq~~acv `jjgqcv nì`cjaz za~haz#

@~oaf thvm vmaza ehcfhcdz) ta a}òhca tmavma~ vma fad~aa ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv {a~zhzvacjaògcd fheea~acv ~adhoaz j`c na a}{i`hcaf nx u`~h`vhgcz) ngvm j~gzz/zajvhgcì `cf gua~/vhoa) hc{gihjhaz) hczvhvqvhgcz) `cf o`j~gajgcgohj eqcfòacvìz ge vma jgqcv~haz# Nx fghcd zg) ta geea~ho{g~v`cv hczhdmv hcvg vma nhdda~ {hjvq~a ge jq~~acv `jjgqcv zqzv`hc`nhihvx `cf vma jgqcv~x/z{ajhehje`jvg~z vm`v ìigt zgoa jgqcv~haz vg ~qc {a~zhzvacv jq~~acv `jjgqcv honì`cjaz tmhia eg~jhcdgvma~z vg o`ba jq~~acv `jjgqcv ~a`flqzvoacvz#

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>1He ta fg vma azvho`vhgcz qzhcd vma zò{iaz vm`v ìzg hcjiqfa vma `qvgjg~~ai`vhgc jgaeehjhacvz ge cgc/zv`vhgc`~x

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the persistence of current account balances and its determinants: the implications for global...

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