the paradoxes of broadband - dtcodlyzko/talks/ofc-paradoxes.pdfwant high bandwidth for...
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University of Minnesota
The paradoxes of broadband
Andrew OdlyzkoDigital Technology CenterUniversity of Minnesota
http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko
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University of Minnesota
Broadband (and telecommunications in general) is full of paradoxes, puzzles, and mistaken beliefs
• What is broadband?
• Can we afford it?
• Do we want it?
• What will we do with it?
• Should government make it a national priority?
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University of Minnesota
Broadband vs. narrowband: How are people voting with their pocketbooks?
U.S. data for December, 2001broadband lines 12.8Mcell phones 128.4M
Narrowband mobility beat stationary broadband 10:1,even though prices were comparable
Deployment is not the big issue. Adoption rates matter far more
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University of Minnesota
Adoption rates suggest broadband beats cell telephony in attractiveness
U.S. Broadband Lines
Dec 1999 2.8MDec 2000 7.1MDec 2001 12.8MDec 2002 19.9MDec 2003 27.0M (est)
U.S. Cell Phones
Dec 1989 3.5MDec 1990 5.3MDec 1991 7.6MDec 1992 11.0MDec 1993 16.0MDec 1994 24.1M
• Thus broadband growth in three years equals that of cellphones in five years
cannot ignore technology adoption rates• Internet time is a dangerous myth
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University of Minnesota
FCC definition of broadband: connections with speed exceeding 200 Kb/sin at least one direction
Under the official definition, we all have broadband connectivity courtesy of snail mail!
CD-ROMs via USPS deliver more data at same cost as a 1 Mb/s connection running at full capacity.
What is broadband?
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University of Minnesota
What matters most in communications:
• volume
• transaction time
• reach
• price
also:
• isochronicity (easy byproduct of low latency)
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University of Minnesota
Volume and value only weakly related:Revenue per MB for various services
3000.00SMS
3.5050Cell phone
0.3320Dial Internet
0.0870Phone
0.02550Broadband Internet
$0.00012$40Cable
Revenue per MBTypical monthly billService
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University of Minnesota
One picture is worth a thousand words
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University of Minnesota
One picture is worth a thousand words, provided one uses another thousand words to justify the picture.
Harold Stark, 1970
There are still unexploited opportunities in voice, especially in 3G (with differentiated voice quality levels, etc.). The success of Nextel’s push-to-talk should not have been a surprise (nor SMS).
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University of Minnesota
A depressing litany of duds among major recent networking research initiatives:
ATMRSVPSmart marketsActive networksMulticastingStreaming real time multimedia3G
And (largely encompassing all of these): QoS
All technical successes, but failures in the marketplace
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University of Minnesota
All recent “killer apps” created by users, not carriers:
emailWorld Wide Webbrowsersearch enginesNapster
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University of Minnesota
The dominant and seriously misleading view of data network utilization
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University of Minnesota
Typical enterprise traffic profile: Demolishes myth of insatiable demand for bandwidth and many (implicit)
assumptions about nature of traffic
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University of Minnesota
Weekly traffic profile on an AboveNet OC192 link from Washington, DC to New York City
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University of Minnesota
Streaming multimedia vs. file transfers:
Predicted long agoConfirmed by Napster, . . .Want high bandwidth for faster-than-real-time
File transfer for local storage and transfer to other devices the most natural evolution (giving edge to Ethernet)
We all have residential broadband (using conventional definition of broadband) courtesy of regular mail!
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University of Minnesota
Multimedia file transfers a large fraction of current traffic, streaming traffic in the noise
Internet traffic at the University of Wisconsin in Madison
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University of Minnesota
Conclusions:
• Broadband is advancing fast, although not at South Korean pace
• Spread of broadband impeded by– coping with massive overinvestment and
malinvestment of the bubble years– several misleading myths
More data and speculations at www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko