the outlook for energy - snam.it · the outlook for energy: a view to 2040 this presentation...

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes

in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future

Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and

analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission

of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

Antonella Sopranzetti

Media and Communication Manager

Esso Italiana

Energy Demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr.

2010 – 2040

1.0%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1990 2015 2040

Energy Saved

~500

Energy Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2015 2040

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

1990 2015 2040

Global Progress Drives Demand

Billion

Population GDP

Trillion 2005$


2010 – 2040

0.8%


2010 – 2040

2.8%

OECD

Non OECD

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

ElectricityGeneration

Industrial Transportation Res/Comm

Energy Demand by Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

2010

2025

2040

Electricity Generation Leads Growth


0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2020 2040

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2020 2040

Tale of Two Worlds

Non OECD

Quadrillion BTUs

Biomass

Other Renewables

Oil

Nuclear

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD

Coal

Gas


0

20

40

60

80

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

EU 27 Energy Demand and Supply

By Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

By Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

Transportation

Industrial

Electricity

Generation

Res/Comm

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass

Other Renewables


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2010 2020 2030 20400

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

EU 27 Transportation Demand

Transportation

MBDOE

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet

Million Cars

Light Duty

Aviation

Heavy Duty

Marine

Conv. Diesel

Hybrid

PHV/EV

CNG/LPG

Rail

Conv. Gasoline


0

15

30

45

60

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

EU 27 Natural Gas Demand

Total Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

Gas By Sector

BCFD

Oil

Coal

Gas

Other

Electricity

Generation

Industrial

Res/Comm

Transportation


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind /Biofuels

Hydro / Geo

Energy Mix Continues to Evolve

Quadrillion BTUs


2010 - 2040

1.0%

2040

2010

0.8%

1.7%

-0.1%

2.4% 0.4%

5.8% 1.8%


Remaining Oil Resource Crude and Condensate (BBO)

North America

Europe

~100

Asia Pacific

~150

Latin America Africa

Russia/Caspian

~1,000

Middle East

~650

~200

~1,100

~1,100

Global

~4,300

Source: IEA

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Liquids Supply

MBDOE

Supply by Type

Other Liquids

Biofuels

Conventional

Crude & Condensate

Tight Oil

Oil Sands

NGLs

Deepwater

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2040

Resource*

TBO

Remaining

Resource

Cumulative

Production

* Source: IEA ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

World

Remaining Global Gas Resource

Over 200 years coverage at

current demand

1000 TCF

Conventional

Unconventional

4.0

North America

2.8

Latin America

1.6

Europe

OECD

3.1

Africa

4.8

Middle East

6.6

Russia/

Caspian*

4.8

Asia Pacific

Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040

BCFD

Europe Asia Pacific

BCFD

Gas Demand Grows and Supply Diversifies

Local Production

Unconventional

LNG

Conventional

BCFD

North America

Pipeline


0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2025 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2025 2040

North America Energy Balance

Oil

Regional Supply

Gas

Quadrillion BTUs

Net Imports

Net Exports

Regional Supply

Net Exports


0

25

50

75

100

125

2010 2025 2040

Regional Supply

Total Energy Balance Net Exports

Net Imports

What is unconventional?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/GasDepositDiagram.jpg

Shale fracturing – new application of proven technology

Water and sand with a small amount of chemicals are injected into the shale to create tiny cracks in the rock which allows gas to flow into the well

Illustration not shown to scale

• A time-tested, proven

technology used in more

than two million wells

worldwide since the

1940s1

• Comprehensive reports

have found no historical

cases in which hydraulic

fracturing contaminated

drinking water 2

No documented case of freshwater aquifer contamination from hydraulic fracturing

Sources: (1) SPE, Hydraulic Fracturing History of an Enduring Technology (2010) (2) USDOE and GWPC Study, State Oil and Natural Gas Regulations Designed to Protect Water Resources, (2009)

15

Source: Reprinted with permission from Chevron

Source: Wood Mackenzie, IEA

European Unconventional Gas Potential

Tight

Shale

CBM Europe

TCM

Po

ten

tial

Reco

vera

ble

Un

co

nven

tio

na

l R

eso

urc

e

CBM

Tight

Shale

Tight gas production has been produced in Europe for decades

Shale gas still in early exploration phase

Opportunities: Economic Benefits

(1) IHS Global Insight (Dec. 2011), The Economic and Employment Contributions of Shale Gas in the US

(2) The Impact of Shale Gas on the U.S. Economy: CERA; March 2012

(3) Unconventional Gas: Potential Energy Market Impacts in the European Union; JRC 2012

• Shale gas supported

600,000 U.S. jobs in 2010;

900,000 by 20151

• $1.9 trillion investment into

the U.S. economy: 2010 to

20352

• Energy prices $930

lower per household per

year2

JAPAN

EUROPE

U.S.

• Europe currently imports 60% of it gas requirements

• Projected to rise to 80% by 2030 (IEA)

• 2012 JRC Study3 projects that shale gas could reduce imports to 50 to 70%

• At today’s prices, would reduce EU import bill by 20 to 60 billion Euros / year

0

20

40

60

80

100

1800 1900 20001850 1950 2040

Energy Use Evolves Over Time

Percent

Global Percent Mix of Fuels

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)

Biomass

www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/energy_outlook.aspx


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

EU 27 Electricity Demand

Electricity Demand

Thousand Terawatt Hour

Heavy Industry

Other Industry

Residential

Commercial

Transportation

Electricity Generation Fuel Consumption

Quadrillion BTUs

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass

Wind & Solar

Other Renewables


Shale formations and aquifers

21

• Typical European shale formations are greater than 3 km below the aquifer

• Multiple layers of impervious rock separate the shale formation from the aquifer

• Prior to selecting well locations, surface hydrology and subsurface geology are examined in detail

Well bore not to scale

Freshwater aquifer

Shale formation

Depth (metres)

Source: Reprinted with permission from Chevron

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2020 2040

CO2 Emissions Plateau

Billion Tons

By Region

0

5

10

15

20

China India U.S. Europe

Tons per Person Emissions per Capita

‘10

‘25

‘40

OECD

Rest of Non OECD

India

China


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