the one chart that'll tell you what the all share index is going to do in 2015
TRANSCRIPT
Methodology:
•Technical analysis•Analyse the SA All share chart •Major sector overview•Stock picks•questions
THE ONE CHART
Chart by MetaStock
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Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
2644 points (-5.2%)
Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
Sector performance (from January 2015):
•Resources +16.3%•Industrials +9.51%•Financials +10.75
Distance from first support:
•Resources 10.0%•Industrials 6.0%•Financials 7.8
Take All share:
Chart by MetaStock
2644 points (-5.2%)
Distance from first support:
•Resources 10.0%•Industrials 6.0%•Financials 7.8•All Share 5.2%
We’ve bounced too hard too fast!
When I think the correction will happen
It could start as soon as March futures close out
X
Chart by MetaStock
My logic•Resources have the furthest potential downside•Resources should lead the next correction •Industrials and Financials while strong have lagged.•The resource sector is trading at medium term resistance and Fini & Indi sectors are NOT•Industrials and financial stocks should reach their support levels sooner when the market corrects. •Don’t kid yourself! 50 000 is a massive support level and WILL be the best buying opportunity•Markets don’t go up in a straight line….We are in major over-bought territory across sectors.
We need the “kiss goodbye” for our market to continue higher
The recent rally has lasted 18 weeks!
Chart by MetaStock
More logic.•As selling increases VOLATILITY increases•When volatility increases, EMOTIONS become hard to control.•Volatility can make or break you.•When trading through a selling period, the less volatility, the better.
How to ride out the storm
Volatility…
Chart by MetaStock
Chart by MetaStock
Even more logic.•Pick the sector that will offer you the smoothest ride
How to ride out the storm
Even more logic.•Pick the sectors that will offer you the smoothest ride•Pick stocks in those sectors
How to ride out the storm
Here’s why;•Offers you the smoothest ride in terms of volatility•Closest to support (6%) should a correction occur•It carries the most Rand sensitive stocks (defensive)
Industrials is my preferred sector
My storm proof trades.
Remgro•Diversified industrial•Exposure exposure to Mediclinic (defensive) and First Rand.
My storm proof trades.
Steinhoff•Rand Hedge play•63% of it’s revenue comes from Europe.•Listing in Frankurt soon.•Soon to be the biggest furniture manufacturer in Europe
My storm proof trades.
SABMiller•Defensive Rand Hedge play•Pound sensitive•Rugby World Cup in UK. Should see pound strength (support the price)•Potential take over target.
•The market is over-heated in the short term•Broad based break-outs have occurred across sectors so new support MUST be re-tested•As commodity prices come more under pressure, resource stocks will lead the slide•A 5% correction is coming•The resource sector is trading at medium term resistance. resistance and Financials & Industrials are NOT•Industrials and financial stocks should reach their support levels sooner when the market corrects. •Don’t kid yourself! 50 000 is a massive support level and WILL be the best buying opportunity•The bull market should last until the end of the year but NOT before it finds support
My conclusions;
That’s my opinion and I’m sticking to
it!
Questions
