the north east economy: a great place to invest. overview of north east lep area
TRANSCRIPT
The North East Economy: A great place to invest
Overview of North East LEP Area
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Poun
ds
England North East North West Yorkshire and The HumberEast Midlands West Midlands East LondonSouth East South West
London
North East
England
95
100
105
110
115
2009 2010 2011 2012
GVA
/hou
r wor
ked.
Bas
e 20
09=1
00
North East LEP England exc London London North East region
Fastest growing productivity…
…and median wages are very competitive
Labour productivity (GVA per hour worked) growing at fastest rate in the country
(FT only)
…and lowest median wage in England
High growth in GVA per head…
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2010 2011 2012 Average of 3 years
North East LEP England exc London London North West
GVA per head growing among highest rates in the country…
…while births and deaths of businesses (as % of registered
businesses) are on a par with the national figures...
2009 2010 2011 2012NELEP 10% 9% 11% 11%
England exc London 10% 9% 11% 11%
2009 2010 2011 2012NELEP 12% 11% 10% 11%
England exc London 12% 10% 10% 11%
Deaths of registered enterprises (as % of active ones)
Births of registered enterprises (as % of active ones)
… and survival rates are a healthy as the rest of the country
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
North East LEP England except London & SE UK
Source: Prepared with data from ONS, release 12 December 2013
…and longer run growth, which shows the North East is catching up with the rest of the country
Index of current values of Gross Value Added (GVA). Base 2000=100
But the North East is also a great place to be an employee:
For someone on median income, real wages (which account for cost of living) are among the highest in the country
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
London South West South East East of England
West Midlands
Wales East Midlands
Yorkshire & The
Humber
North East North West
Median income of full time employees, expressed in North East prices, 2012
Ratio of 90th to 10th percentile of hourly pay (all employees); 2013
And the North East has some of the most equal distribution of wages in the country
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0N
orth
Eas
t
York
sh&
Hum
b
East
Mid
land
s
Wes
t Mid
land
s
Sout
h W
est
Nor
th W
est
East
Sout
h Ea
st
Lond
on
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
UK North East North West
Yorkshire and The Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
East London South East South West
England
£s per headMillion £s
Imports (left) Exports (left)
Imports/head (right) Exports/head (right)
Source: HMRC, figures released 6 march 2014
Foreign trade in goods: Only English region with consistent positive trade balance in goods every year 2010-13
Imports and exports, goods, 2013
However: North East is lowest exporter and importer of goods On a per capita basis, exports perform above national average.
12,04912,875
16,07716,978
19,125 19,286
21,937
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Northum'd Durham North East LEP
Sunderland England exc London
Tyneside England
73% of England
Source: Prepared with data from ONS, release 12 December 2013
Gross Value Added per person, 2012 (current basic prices)Current £
However, levels are still a way off and challenges remain…
Source: Prepared with data from ONS
Differences persist for both employment…
Source: Prepared with data from ONS
…and unemployment
Number of businesses in the UK private sector per 10,000 adults, start of 2013
Taken from BIS (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/254552/13-92-business-population-estimates-2013-stats-release-4.pdf)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Wal
es
Nor
th E
ast
York
&H
umb
Lond
on
Nor
th W
est
Sout
h W
est
Wes
t Mid
East
Mid
Engl
and
Sout
h Ea
st
East
£ per business£ per person
Per person (left axis)
Per business (right axis)
Low R+D per capita, better on a per business basis….
Taken from the North East Independent Economic Review, except far right bar (prepared with data from BIS)
Demographic data provide important context
Not enough young people% of total population who are employees is similar to the rest of the country excluding LondonSeemingly too many inactive amongst the working age population
Key observations:
Jan13-Dec13, A
nnual Population S
urvey (ON
S)
All 0-15, 17%
All 0-15, 19%
Employed, 38.9%
Employed, 39.5%
Self-
empl
, 4%
Self-
empl
, 6%
Une
mp,
5%
Une
mp,
4%
Inactive, 17%
Inactive, 14%
Acti
ve, 1
%A
ctive
, 2%
Inactive, 17%
Inactive, 16%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
North East LEP
England exc
London
% of population
Aged 16-64, 63% Aged 65+, 18%Aged 0-16, 19%
Aged 16-64, 65% Aged 65+, 18%Aged 0-16, 17%
60% 94%26%7%As % of age group: 7% 6%
As % of age group: 62% 10% 6% 22% 90%10%
But why inactive?
…due to greater proportion of long-term sick
Student, 25%
Student, 25%
looking after family/home, 22%
looking after family/home, 26%
tem
pora
ry s
ick,
3%
tem
pora
ry s
ick,
2%
long-term sick, 28%
long-term sick, 22%
disc
oura
ged,
1%
disc
oura
ged,
1%
retired, 15%
retired, 16%
othe
r, 7
%ot
her,
9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
North East LEP
England exc London
% of people in the age group
Breakdown of inactives in the 16-64 year old group
Jan13-Dec13, Annual Population Survey (ONS)
Age
16-1
9, 0
%Ag
e 16
-19,
0%
Age 20-49, 13%
Age 20-49, 11%
Age 50-64, 14%
Age 50-64, 10%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
NELEP, 28%
England Exc London, 22%
% of people aged 16-64
Age breakdown of long-term sick inactives in the 16-64 year old group
But why long term sick? Is it the mines legacy?
Age breakdown shows even the younger in the North East have a greater propensity to be long-term sick… so can’t be mines
2011 Census, ONS
Possible hint from ONS…
More recent data shows dramatic changes… benefits?
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
Mar
-May
199
2O
ct-D
ec 1
992
May
-Jul
199
3D
ec-F
eb 1
994
Jul-S
ep 1
994
Feb-
Apr
199
5Se
p-N
ov 1
995
Apr
-Jun
199
6N
ov-J
an 1
997
Jun-
Aug
199
7Ja
n-M
ar 1
998
Aug
-Oct
199
8M
ar-M
ay 1
999
Oct
-Dec
199
9M
ay-J
ul 2
000
Dec
-Feb
200
1Ju
l-Sep
200
1Fe
b-A
pr 2
002
Sep-
Nov
200
2A
pr-J
un 2
003
Nov
-Jan
200
4Ju
n-A
ug 2
004
Jan-
Mar
200
5A
ug-O
ct 2
005
Mar
-May
200
6O
ct-D
ec 2
006
May
-Jul
200
7D
ec-F
eb 2
008
Jul-S
ep 2
008
Feb-
Apr
200
9Se
p-N
ov 2
009
Apr
-Jun
201
0N
ov-J
an 2
011
Jun-
Aug
201
1Ja
n-M
ar 2
012
Aug
-Oct
201
2M
ar-M
ay 2
013
Oct
-Dec
201
3
Inac
tivi
ty r
ate
(%)
Inactivity rate Those not working or looking for a job among the 16-64 year olds
Inactivity North East region Inactivity UK
Qualification profile – North East LEP vs. Englandis it an age issue?
Source: Prepared with data from ONS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
No Quals NVQ1 NVQ2 NVQ3 NVQ4+
Aged 16-24
No Quals NVQ1 NVQ2 NVQ3 NVQ4+
Aged 25-49
North East LEP
England except London
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
No Quals NVQ1 NVQ2 NVQ3 NVQ4+
Aged 50-64
Data for 2013
Our young are achieving really great GCSEs:
No one else in the country gets a greater % of students achieving 5 A*-C GCSEs. The North East has been topping this table since 2008….
Region 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012North East 53.5 57.4 60.6 66.5 72.9 79.5 84.7 88West Midlands 54.2 56.4 59.3 64.1 70.1 77.9 83 85.5North West 53.9 56.6 60.3 65.4 71 77.7 82.2 84.2London 55.3 58.3 60.9 65 71.2 77.7 82 84.1Yorkshire and The Humber 51.3 54.5 57.8 62.1 69.2 76.8 81.5 84.1East Midlands 52.5 55.4 57.9 63.1 68.9 75.3 80 82.7South East 57.6 59.8 62 66 70.2 75.8 79.3 82East of England 56.6 59.3 61.2 64.7 69 74.3 78 80.6South West 56.1 58.2 59.5 63.6 67.9 72.7 76.8 79.8England 56.3 59 61.4 65.3 70 75.4 79.5 81.8
Which, combined with our productivity and income advantages means a greater future for those in employment in the North East
Wages catching up… productivity gains?
82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94%
20 percentile
Median
80 percentile
Year 2002
Year 2013
North East weekly gross pay as % of England (all workers)